Sunday, March 16, 2014

La Liga ....

La Liga: Elche- Real Betis (written Saturday 18.00)

Betis have at long last awoken from their slumber !
A win at Rubin in the Europa League set up a double header with neighbours and deadly rivals Sevilla in the european competition and that seemed to inspire them. A point at highflying Villarreal in the league followed, by all three at home to Getafe last week and then, most eyecatching of all, a 2-0 win over Sevilla in the first leg on Thursday. More than a little momentum and that eight point gap to survival and the promised land of 17th spot, no longer looks quite so far from their grasp.

Three points here would also close the gap on Elche to eight points and have the additional bonus of bringing one more team into the mix.
Real have yet to win on the road this season, but that tends to matter less once we are into must win territory and if they can win in Russia and at Sevilla ,a trip to Elche who have won only 5 of 14 at home and who were playing second tier football last season, whilst Betis were challenging for a european place, should hold few fears.
It is a very quick turnaround, especially given that it is an early kick off, but I suspect Real WANT to be playing right now and if they win, would probably like another game tomorrow.
In the last three seasons, teams have needed between 37 and 44 points to survive in La Liga, in the two years that 37 were enough, after 27 rounds the team in 17th had 26 points, exactly the same as Valladoilid have now. That would mean that 19 points is probably the minimum that Real need to survive, that is six wins and a draw from 11 starts, a tall order given that they have only won four all season. But easier to manage once you are playing well and if Real knew for certain that would be enough, I think it would be cause for celebration. However, they are probably going to have to win at least twice on the road and looking at the remaining matches, I would argue that this was one they would surely target, not least because it would keep the momentum up.

Elche are without left Edu Albacar (17-3-1...........just two wins in 10 starts without him).

1.5 units Real Betis level ball 2.31 asian line/Ibramarket.

Good Luck.

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