TUESDAY ....

Division 2

Torquay United- Aldershot Town

Hosts appear to have gone off the boil and are without a win in four league starts, however, I am not quite prepared to give up on them yet and still believe that they will have a major say in the playoff race. I have just spoken to someone who watched their recent game at Stevenage and he felt they had much the better of that 0-0 draw, was very impressed by their movement off the ball and only the woodwork, which United hit three times, saved Borough from a comprehensive defeat. I then watched extended highlights of their 3-1 home defeat to Macclesfield at the weekend, their first loss here in over six months. They admit to being a little below par in that one, but still had a goal disallowed, again hit the woodwork and missed a number of other clear chances with the game still in the balance, before conceding twice in as many minutes late on, when pressing for a winner. I do not think there is too much wrong at Plainmoor that a confidence boosting win won't put right. They are ultra keen to get that tonight with their next three starts all on the road. I know home boss Paul Buckle a little from his time at Brentford, he is a very honest hard working coach and you can take what he says as gospel, in the local press today he stated that monday's training went incredibly well and with a few more options available to him this evening, I think a switch back to 4-4-2 which served them so well early on is on the cards.

Aldershot are turning into draw specialists, with five stalemates in six league outings, another is obviously a possiblity tonight, so I am pleased to get United giving up a quarter ball, but I expect the home side to strip much fresher and the draw appears to be the maximun downside. Shots played at Stockport in the North West on saturday and now go as far West as is possible just three days later, therefore in the 72 hours since they left the suburbs of Manchester, they will have spent approx 20% of the time stuck on a bus, that is a major disadvantage, as Torquay have been at home and able to prepare and train as normal in the interim. United had much the better of the two h2h games last season, on top in both and collecting four points,the last of which was in April when Aldershot were battling for a post season spot.

Torquay United -0.25 ball

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ....

CHAMPIONSHIP

SCUNTHORPE UNITED - IPSWICH TOWN

Town have really impressed me this season, they are unbeaten apart from a bit of a thumping from league leaders QPR, but immediately bounced back with a 2-0 win over highflying Cardiff last week and followed that with an away win at Millwall in the cup with a largely reserve squad. Those that did play, will have had 24 hours longer rest than Scunthorpe's players who played the next night against Manchester United, a match that was played at a very high tempo and where they did a lot of running, to say nothing of the mental energy expended in what was termed the "biggest game in their history". Town also freshened up the squad with the addition of very promising Spurs youngster Jake Livermore, who played against Arsenal in midweek and has already played 25 matches at this level, when on loan elsewhere last season. They have collected 10 points from the last four h2h meetings with United and can add to that tally today and hold on to second spot in the table.

Ipswich -0.25 2.07 .

DIVISION 1

BOURNEMOUTH - CARLISLE UNITED

United are another side who have caught my eye, not only are they unbeaten in the league, but all of their matches have been tough fixtures against teams expected to finish in the top ten. They look very solid at the back, have not conceded a goal in 331 minutes and have a very professional approach under Greg Abbot, he leaves little to chance, has already had Bournemouth watched three times and is confident that he has found a way to beat the south coast side. Abbot made a lot of contacts in his long time at Leeds and has used them to bring in some useful youngsters on loan, including Norwood and Chester from Manchester United, Michalik from Leeds and Marshall from Stoke. Hosts have performed well on their return to Division 1 and play some good football at times, but are operating on very limited resources and look fragile at the back at times, they have conceded seven in their last four starts and are very short of back line options at present. Long trip for Carlisle and they are unlikely to go home without something to show for it.

Carlisle United +0.25 1.94 .

Good Luck.

SERIE A ....

LAZIO - MILAN

Milan have dominated this series, have not lost here this millenium and won on five of their last seven visits, with a 13-3 goal difference. Massive array of attacking talent available to Massimiliano Allegri, who has to rotate Ibrahimovic, Ronaldinho, Robinho and Pato, the last named is out tonight and Robinho is a doubt, which may simplify things for Allegri, but hardly makes the visitors much less potent, with Inzaghi, Seedorf and Boateng all desperate to play some part and the evergreen yet still only 31 yo Anrea Pirlo, pulling the strings from midfield. Some of this squad are a bit long in the tooth nowadays and have plenty of miles on the clock, I am pretty sure that Nesta is 54 not 34 (!), but that has always been the Milan way and they look to be getting the balance right, with a few more "youngsters" introduced. I expect this giant of european football to have a big season and like Inter in recent seasons, feel we will see the best of the Rossoneri in games against the stronger sides, when the competitive juices really get flowing. This falls into that category and they will want the two points back they threw away at the weekend.

Milan -0.25 2.07 +

BRESCIA - ROMA

I like the "over" here, Roma allowed goal shy Bologna 21 attempts on goal at the weekend and have huge problems at the back tonight, with three starting defensive players missing. They continue to pose a threat at the other end of the pitch and despite coach Ranieri saying they "have to learn to hold on to a lead", which is true, that is not really their style and they lack the personnel to do so at the moment. Hosts have made a promising start to life in Serie A and will not find a better time to face Roma, who are in a bit of a mess and are getting desperate for a win. Expect both to be looking for all three points.

"over" 2.75 goals 2.11

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY .......

Hard to know where to start !

Business first, I feel a bit peeved (could use another word !) about the Bohemians game, Bohs were leading 1-0 and had restricted Sligo to very few chances, before the match turned on a very dubious red card. I have not seen it myself, but understand that the Bohemians player was being held around the legs which he "shook" in order to free himself and was sent off for kicking his opponent. Sorry if I have got that wrong, but it is close enough and I understand that the reaction of the furious Bohemians coach was worth the price of admission alone !

Not sure how many of you noticed, but in the Bundesliga, Bayern Munich won their second game of the season with a 92nd minute winner at Hoffenheim. The winning goal had more than a hint of offside about it , but the strange thing is that in the previous win, over Wolfsburg on matchday 1, the deciding goal also came as time expired. Referee for both games was Thorsten Kinhöfer, not saying there is anything sinister in that, but how has he already taken charge of two Bayern games just four matches into the new season, thought that kind of thing only happened in the EPL !

Elsewhere, Brentford knocked Everton out of the Carling Cup !!!!!

Dixie Dean, Alan Ball, Howard Kendall, Brian Labone, Kevin Sheedy, Bill Kenwright, John Parrott, Sir Paul McCartney can you hear me ? Your boys took a hell of a beating ! Your boys took a hell of a beating !

OK, maybe not, it took penalties, but the Bees had already missed one which would have settled things inside 90 minutes and this is a famous victory for my beloved Bees. Arsenal at the Emirates up next please !

Just in case you missed it, Brentford knocked a virtually full strength Everton out of the Carling Cup !!!!

A few very basic notes about a couple of matches later, just small stakes at best as there are far more interesting games later in the week. By the way, photograph is of Dixie Dean, not me in my playing days !

Back later.

TUESDAY ....

IRISH PREMIER LEAGUE
SLIGO ROVERS - BOHEMIANS

We discussed Bohemians very recently (see below), that win over Drogheda allowed them to close the gap on Shamrock Rovers to just 4 points and they can smell another championship trophy for the boardroom. However, with six rounds to play they cannot afford any slip ups and this is a massive game as it will really put the pressure on the leaders ahead of a big two clash next month.

Sligo are strong at home (8-3-3) but are meeting the best away team in the IPL and they seem unlikely to be as hungry as the visitors, especially with a cup final to play this weekend, hosts have several players carrying knocks and with also a FAI semi final to play shortly, they have indicated that league results might be sacrificed in an attempt to win the two other trophies, as a result, they are likely to rest a couple of starters tonight. That semi final is against Bohemians by the way and conspiracy theorists could have a field day with that one ! Bohs will be without Jason McGuiness tonight, but have already won here once this season and with such a huge desire and in their best form of the campaign, I take them to keep the pressure on Shamrock in a title race which is set to go down to the wire.

Bohemians -0.25 2.09

September 13th

IRELAND PREMIER LEAGUE
BOHEMIANS- DROGHEDA

Hosts are arguably the strongest squad in the IPL and after a stop start campaign, they finally look to have found their true form and have won five of their last six, drawn the other and kept four clean sheets in that sequence. A run which has coincided with the emptying of their treatment room for the first time in an injury hit season and now they have options all over the pitch.

They are 7 points behind leaders Shamrock Rovers, with seven rounds to play and with a draw no value at all, will be going all out for all three points tonight against an out of sorts opponent whom they normally beat. Drogheda have lost of their last eight and all four of their last four visits here without scoring, home and away they have lost 9 from 10 against the Bohs. The visitors are short of options and were forced to play a couple out of position at home to Dundalk
three days ago when they conceded three times.

Hosts scored three themselves against UCD on friday with a very attack orientated line up and had enough chances to have doubled that number, similar approach tonight and it is hard to see beyond a home win and the only issue is two or more goals ? I say a resounding yes !

Bohemians -1.5 goals 1.95.

Good Luck.

SUNDAY ....

Swansea left it late yesterday, but it was a fully deserved win, they created 17 chances, most of which were on target, hit the woodwork at least twice and Frank Nouble could have scored twice inside ten minutes of kick off and he made a very promising debut, doing his share of defensive duties too.

Few bits and pieces, looking forward to some very attractive looking games today, Kun Aguero trained with his team mates yesterday and will be hopeful of being fit enough to start against Barcelona tonight and adding to his tally of six goals already notched against the Catalan giants.

Not much love lost between the players and supporters of Manchester United and Liverpool and that has been translated into red cards, with six shown in the last seven meetings. Last two seasons have seen an average of one every 5.8 games in the EPL and with that figure already on the increase this campaign, do not be surprised to see number seven this afternoon.

I do have one strong "double stake" selection today for a Spanish fixture this evening, but am not able to post it on here, however, there is a crowded midweek programme, with most major european leagues playing a full programme, to say nothing of Brentford-Everton in the Carling Cup, so I am sure to post in the next day or two, so please check back then.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ....

CHAMPIONSHIP
SWANSEA CITY- SCUNTHORPE UNITED

Swansea are creating lots of chances (85 so far) but not really had the success, at least away from the Liberty stadium, their very attractive game has merited, at times, they are capable of passing teams to death at this level.

We talked recently about how well Scott Sinclair had fitted into the side and once again Brendan Rodgers looks to have done an amazing piece of business with 19 yo striker Frank Nouble joining from West Ham United, for an initial three month loan period. Nouble, another player known by Rodgers from his Chelsea days, has huge potential, plenty of pace and mobility and already has experience of the EPL and at international U19 level. He seems sure to get plenty of chances to showcase his skills in the Championship and I expect him to flourish at a club where he is not under constant pressure with the mood at Upton Park far from healthy at present, he can shine a little further away from the spotlight.

Swans are strong at home (100% 3-0-0 so far) and have lost just 6 of their last 49 starts at the Liberty, over two seasons which has seen circa 26% of games result in away wins in the Championship, meaning they have lost less than half the average number.

Scunny arrive on the back of a shock 4-0 road win at Sheffield United in midweek, their first start without departed boss Nigel Adkins who dropped down a division to join a "much bigger club". That highlights the predicament of the visitors, they have over achieved big time in recent seasons on very limited resources.Not only do United have a tough opponent to face this afternoon, but they are bound to be distracted by their midweek cup tie, when mighty Manchester United visit tiny Glanford Park. This is one of the biggest games in Scunthorpe's history, it is also being televised live and none of the players wants to pick up a knock today and miss out on this major opportunity to showcase their talent to a massive audience. It is hard to see them fully focused on events in South Wales and they also look set to be without two key defenders. Just 200 fans are making the difficult journey west and it is clear the game on wednesday is a priority for them and I suspect the club as a whole.

Swansea -1 ball 2.07.

Good Luck.

OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS !

I would like to hear from anyone that follows any of the following leagues closely.....

Australian A League, J league 1 & 2, Brazil Serie A & B.

Ideally someone that writes a little about the matches, or maybe bets reasonably seriously on games from these regions. I would prefer a native from each country and a good command of english would be essential ( especially for the Australian ...... only joking !) .

Please email me at gowi8@btinternet.com

Good Luck.

EUROPA LEAGUE .....

Along with many others I was very sceptical about the competition last year, especially the number of matches required and early start to the season that involved, with losing finalist Fulham playing 19 times between July and May . But I think everyone was a little surprised by the money up for grabs and a big name club from one of the major television markets could potentially pick up 20m euros and significantly raise their worldwide profile.

With so many clubs struggling financially, few are going to want to tell the money men that they rested players for this competition and put progress at risk,because they have league fixture number 9 of 38 in four days time !

Therefore, I think almost every club will be taking the competition seriously. For example, Liverpool have little chance of a top 4 finish in the EPL , have a coach who loves the competition, are £500 million in debt and looking to attract investment, how are they not going to be highly motivated ? The same is true to some degree or other for almost all the others and whilst it lacks the glamour of the Champions League, at least we now have a valid alternative. Of course, that does not make it any easier to pick a winner, but at least you can be fairly confident that you are on a "trier".

Having said all that, the fixtures tonight do not excite me greatly, butI can pass on a small interest .....

NAPOLI - UTRECHT

Hosts are viewing this as a very big game, going as far as to describe it as "the first dawn of their international age" on the club website. It is the first time they have directly qualified for a european tournament in 15 years and their very loyal supporters have bought into the dream, with over 50,000 tickets already sold for this evening. The group is tough and with a trip to Steaua up next followed by home and away games with Liverpool, the Azzurri are viewing three points against the dutch side as vital. Utrecht are poor travellers and have already lost 2-0 at Celtic, 4-0 at Twente and 1-0 away to Groningen in the last month, they have no history of european success, little experience of the kind of atmosphere they will face this evening and will be looking to pick up most of their points at their homely De Galgenwaard stadium. They played a very open style at Celtic Park and the game was stretched almost from kick off, it was a similar story at Twente, where although all four goals came after the hour mark, Utrecht had the woodwork and their keeper to thank for not conceding much earlier and then they could have been looking at a landslide defeat. Napoli are very strong on home soil losing just ten times in 100 starts, winning an incredibly high 57% of those, they like to play on the front foot and to my mind they meet the ideal opponent to kick start that "international age".

Napoli -1.25 2.16 .

Good Luck.

NOBODY TELLS THE SPECIAL ONE HOW TO PLAY THE BEAUTIFUL GAME !

UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
REAL MADRID - AJAX AMSTERDAM

On paper we have a game between two traditionally attack minded teams, who like to entertain and play the beautiful game. However, Ajax on their return to the Champions League group stage after five years absence, arrive without the suspended Luis Suarez and key defender Jan Vertonghen and coach Martin Jol seems likely to try and give his back line a little more protection and sacrifice one of his normal three front men. So, if you like, in some strange way I do not see the absence of the Uruguayan striker, who made such a big impact at the World Cup, as necessarily crucial. Of course, I would prefer he was playing, but they signed another prolific hitman in Mounir El Hamdouai from AZ , where he scored 50 goals in 81 appearances and he will get his chance to shine tonight with the spotlight all to himself, after making a strong start alongside Suarez. The visitors have been the best side in the Netherlands over the past 12 months, are unbeaten in nine of those and are 15-2-0 in their last 17 league starts. They have also battled through two rounds of CL qualification including a very tough tie with Dynamo Kiev and arrive here the more match fit of the two.

Real have only played two games under new coach Jose Mourinho, a 0-0 draw at Mallorca and a laboured 1-0 home win over Osasuna. The Special One will always do things his own way and is determined to get things right defensively first, however much that might annoy and frustrate the Bernabeu faithful, who have lived on a diet of all out attacking football for over half a century. He will be happy with a win of any sort tonight and 1-0 will do him just fine, it is worthwhile noting that Inter opened with three draws in their CL group last season, before going on to take the title and Jose knows that nothing will be decided tonight. He has bought in half a team, some of whom know how he likes to play, but the rest are still "learning" and Real are currently a work in progress. Having said that, even Mourinho will not be given too long a period of grace, so sooner rather than later, he will have to start winning "the right way". However, we can expect these two to be quite cautious from the start this evening and the visitors to be well ahead in terms of fitness, they should get a chance to play themselves into the match and I have to take them getting such a big handicap start.

Ajax +1.5 goals 1.93 + .

Good Luck.

SAINTS IN FOR SOME HARD WORK....

Just quickly, I am not getting involved in the MK Dons- Southampton match tonight, but I do know that new Saints boss Nigel Adkins whilst thinking his new team are the best in Division 1, is a bit apalled by the fitness levels of his new squad.

I understand that he has told them that they will be doing double training sessions until further notice, starting this week. Obviously this is not something clubs normally undertake during the course of the season and it will be interesting to see what immediate effect it has on performances. Supporters might have to be a little patient before seeing the benefit. If I was a player I would be ultra motivated to get results quickly and return to a "normal" schedule as soon as possible. Maybe that is an incentive to show their best tonight, anyway, it will be an interesting few weeks on the South Coast.

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY .......

I missed most of the Champions League action last night as I went to the Millwall-Reading game, it was very entertaining, pretty much end to end action and about as far away from a typical 0-0 game as it is possible to get.

The match officials did not help things much, with the referee taking the easy option and showing a yellow card very early in the game, when under the letter of the law, he should have dismissed Lions skipper Paul Robinson. Later in the game he/they further favoured the home side when disallowing a "good" goal from the Royals.

Having said all that, Millwall had the better chances in a match which produced over 30 attempts on goal and was a credit to the Championship, with two sides who will not be too far off the playoffs, going toe to toe for 90 minutes. Home keeper David Forde kept his side in it with a couple of top drawer saves, one of which he pushed onto the post, but it was Reading stopper Adam Federici who stole the show. He made several breathtaking saves including two when Steve Morison was through one on one.

Quick word about Morison, it has taken him five years of non league football to find his way back to "the show", but that time was not wasted, things did not fall for him last night, but he is the real deal and will score a LOT of goals again this season.

Reading came for all three points, switched back to 4-4-2 for this game, which surprised many and whilst looking tough to beat, still have plenty of improvement in them. I will certainly not be rushing to oppose either of these teams in the coming weeks and as always SE 16 will be a tough venue for any visiting sides this season.

I intend to preview a game later in the day so please check back.

MONDAY ....

IRELAND PREMIER LEAGUE
BOHEMIANS- DROGHEDA

Hosts are arguably the strongest squad in the IPL and after a stop start campaign, they finally look to have found their true form and have won five of their last six, drawn the other and kept four clean sheets in that sequence. A run which has coincided with the emptying of their treatment room for the first time in an injury hit season and now they have options all over the pitch.

They are 7 points behind leaders Shamrock Rovers, with seven rounds to play and with a draw no value at all, will be going all out for all three points tonight against an out of sorts opponent whom they normally beat. Drogheda have lost of their last eight and all four of their last four visits here without scoring, home and away they have lost 9 from 10 against the Bohs. The visitors are short of options and were forced to play a couple out of position at home to Dundalk
three days ago when they conceded three times.

Hosts scored three themselves against UCD on friday with a very attack orientated line up and had enough chances to have doubled that number, similar approach tonight and it is hard to see beyond a home win and the only issue is two or more goals ? I say a resounding yes !

Bohemians -1.5 goals 1.95.

Good Luck.

SUNDAY .....

Not much joy on the blog yesterday, although we should have secured a profit on the day when Southend took the lead. The Blues had a huge amount of possession (62%) and looked to be firmly in charge after going a goal up, before defensive errors cost them not one, but two goals ! United do look to be heading in the right direction and I do not think they are a side we should be rushing to oppose, so the money is probably only lent !

I am not posting any selections today, where my main interest is focused on the US golf tour event and the first sunday of the new NFL season, which is something I will return to in the coming weeks. However, we have a huge midweek with english domestic football, plus Champions and Europa League action so please check back then and good luck with your bets in the meantime.

CONSTABLE SET TO THRIVE ALONGSIDE CRADDOCK .....

HEREFORD UNITED - OXFORD UNITED

Oxford signed Tom Craddock just before the deadline and that immediately eased the pressure on James Constable, who was carrying much of the offensive level of expectation for the U's and he responded with a hat trick against Morecambe, as United eased to a 4-0 win. Craddock and Josh Payne, another player who signed just before the window closed played their part and whilst Craddock was a little short of the tempo, he will strip a lot fitter today and having scored 40 goals in a season and a half for Luton, will be looking to be equally as prolific in Division 2 and could form a fearsome two pronged strike force with Constable.

Payne is a very talented youngster, who recently joined Doncaster Rovers from West Ham, where he was highly thought of and only just fell short of the level required. He has come for some match practice and is far too good for the fourth tier. We have already seen how solid United are at the back and now that they have found some form at the other end of the pitch and increased their options, this potentially very big lower level club should continue their rise up the FL ladder. Hereford have not scored a league goal for 524 minutes and whilst they are creating more chances than that might indicate, they have injury problems again today and have not been able to play a settled team all season, I have to take the unchanged visitors, who have a touch of class, off level ball.

Oxford level ball ......... min 1.77

Good Luck.

STURROCK LOOKING TO MAKE THE MOST OF LAST CHANCE ........

NORTHAMPTON TOWN- SOUTHEND UNITED

Paul Sturrock who is probably drinking in the Last Chance Saloon in terms of his coaching career, has done a great job at Southend in double quick time, with no funds or players, he has had to assemble a squad on a shoestring since the off season ( signing 17 players in a couple of weeks !) and his team have improved week by week since then and will have taken a huge amount of confidence in beating league leaders Torquay last week. Where not just the result, but performance was exceptional and if they can continue to build on that a return to League 1 is not impossible. I saw that Anthony Grant has scored in their last two starts, he was here before the new coach arrived, but has obviously flourished again under Sturrock, who is good with man management. Grant was another who almost made it at the top level and played for Chelsea at Old Trafford as a 17 year old before losing his way, still only 22/23 it is still not too late for him and he is another who should flourish at this level. Town have yet to win this season ( four draws) and it is easy to see where the problems lie, they have created a division low 36 attempts on goal and conceding is leaving them with a mountain to climb, they have only kept one clean sheet at home to Accrington and also conceded six in two recent cup ties. Stanley easily frustrated them by playing five across the middle and that is something Sturrock might consider, though United have been lining up 4-1-4-1 recently and it is working well. Point at least for the visitors.

Southend +0.25 ball .....min 1.94

Good Luck.

LOWE HELPING SHAKERS JOIN THE MOVERS.............

DIVISION 2
CREWE ALEXANDRA- BURY

I dont agree with the odds here either and do not think Bury, who are a much stronger side in my opinion should be getting a handicap start. Having said that they are only consistent in their inconsistency and you are never quite sure what you will get from them. However, they are a side full of goals and look to have finally found the right formation with Ryan Lowe who has always played as an out and out striker, operating behind the front two, which has turned him into a goal maker whilst still scoring from a deeper role. They have a good spirit at the club and I always fancy them to come from behind, which is not something I am as confident about with Alex, who seem to need things to go their way before they win and football is not always like that. Lowe, Efe Sodje and Steven Schumacher are all former Crewe players so will be extra motivated to do well on their return to Gresty Road. I also heard good things about Andy Haworth who did well at neighbours Rochdale last season, helping them to promotion, he has signed from Blackburn Rovers and whilst I do not know much about him, recent reports have been very encouraging about the old fashioned winger and Bury are a team with huge attacking options. Crewe did score seven against Barnet, one of those days when everything clicked but have only claimed two points in their other four starts and have yet to play one team in the top half of the table, so the jury is still out on them.

Bury +0.25 ball ....... min 1.94

Good Luck.

SATURDAY .....

After a mini blip I hope it is safe to say that I have returned to form, I made a reasonable profit on Ligue 2 last night and apart from that, have only played two double stake bets on the US Open Tennis in the past three days, one won and the other is still live and trading at half the odds.......... so far so good.

I am heavily involved in the football today of course and have at the moment, five selections for the UK domestic games today. Going to post a couple of these on here shortly so please check back.

I got to watch a couple of games last week, a famous Bees win over Sheffield Wednesday and another from the Blue Square South. Brentford played well and do have some potential, but they need to string a couple of results together now, as this season has seen one solid promising showing, immediately followed by a dire one and they need to move on now. I would like to see them thump Rovers today, not least because I have a friend who is a Gas head and desperately need to contact him about something, but am waiting for the result first !

The BSS game was very interesting and I think I saw something that should produce a couple of winners in the coming weeks, but cannot say more at this stage. I do not really lack confidence so this might not mean much, but I feel I am a very good judge at upper non league level and anyone that read my preseason notes on AFC Wimbledon ( and some 60 of you received those)will know what I mean. In that I said that we should follow them in the opening weeks of the season and also highlighted Danny Kedwell at 20-1 in the top Conference goalscorer market. A month later Dons are top of the table and Kedwell is traded at a general 4-1 ! Anyway, sure that we will return to the BSS in the coming weeks and hopefully I can share my views with you.

Back shortly.

FABIO NEEDS ALP TO COLLECT MORE THAN A POINT IN BASLE ..... (see what I did there ?)

SWITZERLAND - ENGLAND

Yet another fairly uninspiring day, although I am quite keen on the following selection.

After a big win over Bulgaria at the weekend, England will be happy to come away from here with a point against a home team who pose little offensive threat but who are terrible difficult to break down under shrewd and vastly experienced coach Omar Hitzfeld. His team went 559 World Cup minutes without conceding a single goal before Mark Gonzalez pinched one in Port Elizabeth for Chile, they had previously "stolen" a famous win over Spain who still went on to take the trophy. The Swiss have gone back to their miserly ways since with three cleansheets. Infact, 8 of their last 10 outings have produced one goal or less and with this being their first group game, we can expect them to line up very defensively and adopt a caution first approach. England will continue to play a variation on 4-4-2, regardless of what Capello might say, he finds it impossible to stray too far from his preferred and some might say dated formation, his idea to switch from this is for Rooney to simply drop off Defoe. Anyway England always struggle to break down well organised hard working teams, we have seen that recently against Japan, Algeria and the USA, Switzerland are in a similar mould and I expect the outcome to be pretty much the same. If the visitors do find a way through it is likely to take time and the half time stalemate at odds against is attractively priced IMO.

Half time draw 2.20 exchanges .... 2.10 general quote.

Good Luck.

SUNDAY MORNING ...... A REFLECTION

Very poor day for me yesterday, the second in a couple of weeks, Peterborough should have won at Tranmere, everything was in their favour, they dominated possession, some 63% which is huge on the road and had Rovers penned into their own half for much of the game, but actually created few real chances. If they were to play this match under identical conditions ten times, I suspect Post would win 6.5-7 of those games, so being able to bet them at around evens is/was fantastic value but unfortunately, yesterday was one of the 3-3.5 ! That is football and whilst I am discussing the match at Prenton Park at the moment, it is really sports betting in general I am trying to make my point about.

It is impossible to win all the time. I am coming off an amazing 10-12 weeks when almost everything won, winning was easy, life was good and I felt like a combination of Superman and Jackie Graham ( that's for Bees fans). You have all been there, for that golden period gambling is easy, but there is a little thing called variance and it is there to bring you back down to earth and normally with a very big bump ! Your good run will end, it might last two days, two weeks, three months ( that was fantastic), some even last a year or so. But sooner or later you will struggle and finding winners will prove as difficult as it was easy a week earlier . If you like six teams and bet three, the other three will win, "that" goal never comes, players will miss when it is easier to score, the opposing keeping will have the game of his life and your team will not be safe even at 2-0 up with eight minutes to play ! You will be severely tested and it is now when you will find out how good a gambler you are, not when things are going your way.

You have to try and stay disciplined when the inclination is to "chase" losses and work even harder to get back in the winners circle. I made circa 32 units profit in that winning run, which betting almost exclusively on the asian markets is pretty damn good and have lost back about 5.5 units in the last three weeks. That might not sound much in comparison, but I have worked twice as hard in this period, almost nothing has gone right and it is tough to stay focused. The consolation for me is that ten years ago I would have lost 20 units back by now and that like a roller coaster, things are likely to turn around quickly. Keeping losses to a minimum when things go sour,mean that come the end of the year/season ( although sports betting never really stops) I will get full value for my winning run(s).

On the blog you will not always see these peaks and troughs as clearly as there are only some 20-30% of all "my" games previewed, but overall you should get some idea of the bigger picture. Just thought I would add that in case you are wondering what the heck I am talking about !

I sometimes use the blog as a sounding board and find it cathartic to write these things down, it helps keeps me focused.

Now that is off my chest, I can move on to the big game today Brentford - Sheffield Wednesday live on Sky, who are finally showing some "proper" football ! To be honest the Bees have a dire record in televised games, but I am assured by Owls fans that their record in front of the cameras is equally as poor, but I don't believe that as they beat us home and away in the 2005 playoffs ! No bet for me in this game or at all today, so I can watch purely as a supporter, which is how I normally prefer to watch my beloved Bees. If pushed, I suspect we will see goals and hope that most of those will be flying past Nicky Weaver in the Wednesday goal........ but no bet for me.

By the way, the photo ( taken by a young me about a hundred years ago and before someone asks, yes, they did have colour in those days, but black and white was cheaper !) is of said Jackie Graham, a player who never gave less than 100% and who my brother and I used to follow from pillar to post (stalk) around Griffin Park and beyond in our youth, forget your Messi's and Ronaldo's this was a true superstar of the game !

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ....

DIVISION 1
TRANMERE ROVERS - PETERBOROUGH UNITED

I have already talked in detail about Tranmere's dire problems this season, they are operating on a tiny budget, one of the smallest in the division and boss Les Parry is forced to try and cobble together a squad with a mixture of youngsters and cast offs from other clubs. They started the season with a big injury list and those problems have got worse in the last week and today they will be without a number of key players in defence and pretty much most of their midfield, they have conceded 9 goals in four starts at Prenton Park and are hardly on fire at the other end of the pitch with just 26 attempts on goal in four league outings. They meet a Posh side who are have been extremely active in the transfer market and who are pushing for a swift return to the Championship, they are very potent up front with 17 goals in six starts, their midfield is creating an enormous number of chances for the strikers and look set to have a field day against this weakened Rovers side, especially in the centre of the park. Posh are averaging almost 8 chances more per game than Tranmere an incredible six of which are "on target", these are very big numbers and a clear indicator of the gap between these two clubs, albeit being within in the same division. I have to make the visitors my strongest bet of the day.

Peterborough -0.5 2.0 general quote

DIVISION 2
BARNET- CHELTENHAM TOWN

Barnet are a club in trouble, I always read that they have a good group of players and that things are about to turn around, but the truth is I have not seen any of this, money is tight at Underhill, they have a mixture of untried youngsters and too old pros and anyone of ability is quick to leave and the bottom line is that they have won just five times in 36 league games. They are not a team I want to be backing anytime soon and I favour the visitors off level ball today. I saw Town at Brentford last month, they ran into a strong Bees performance in the first half and went in 2-0 down, but changed things around at the break and kept battling away, pulled a goal back and almost found an equaliser, they were definitely best in the second period.They looked like a team with an attcking threat that night and that has certainly been the case since, beating Crewe 3-2 next time out, it is worth noting that the week after this Alex put seven (!) past Barnet. They then raced into a 3-1 lead away at Rotherham, who are usually very tight at the Don Valley where they have only conceded 19 in 24, before losing 6-4 in "one of those games". Last week they again showed terrific character to come from a goal down to win and end Burton's unbeaten start to the season.Despite the goals conceded, I like what I have seen of the Robins and I can see them pushing for a top seven spot, they are averaging 5.5 attempts on goal per game more than Barnet and off level ball look decent value.

Cheltenham level ball 1.95 asian line.

Good Luck.

THANK GOODNESS IT'S FRIDAY ........... THE WEEKEND STARTS HERE ..........

UEFA EURO 2012 QUALIFIERS
LITHUANIA - SCOTLAND

Briefly, I have to take a little on the hosts off level ball. Lithuania have 13 squad players plying their trade at, or above SPL level and those playing domestic football, should have a major fitness edge being 20 games into their season. Eight of the squad have actually played club football in Scotland, so will know their opponents well. The two teams have met three times in Kaunas winning once each, but Glasgow Rangers were also eliminated by Kaunas at the Champions League qualification stage in 2008 and it is hard to see the scottish players having too many positive mental memories of the city.

Scotland have once again suffered a number of late withdrawls/injuries and will be without six players, it is a clear sign of how few options they have that David Weir, at 40 years of age has been recalled to the starting eleven and he will set a record as the oldest player ever in the European Championship. This speaks volumes about Weir's fitness levels, but little about Scotland's future in the competition and their chances of qualifying for a major tournament for the first time in 12 years. Motherwell , Hibs and Celtic have already disappointed in Europe, scottish football is at a very low ebb and with Lituania having beaten Austria and Serbia here in World Cup qualification, it is tough to see the visitors breaking that poor sequence of results, especially given their recent road form, they have lost their last five away starts with a 0-15 goal difference !

Lithuania level ball 1.99 +.

Good Luck.