Sunday, September 05, 2010


Very poor day for me yesterday, the second in a couple of weeks, Peterborough should have won at Tranmere, everything was in their favour, they dominated possession, some 63% which is huge on the road and had Rovers penned into their own half for much of the game, but actually created few real chances. If they were to play this match under identical conditions ten times, I suspect Post would win 6.5-7 of those games, so being able to bet them at around evens is/was fantastic value but unfortunately, yesterday was one of the 3-3.5 ! That is football and whilst I am discussing the match at Prenton Park at the moment, it is really sports betting in general I am trying to make my point about.

It is impossible to win all the time. I am coming off an amazing 10-12 weeks when almost everything won, winning was easy, life was good and I felt like a combination of Superman and Jackie Graham ( that's for Bees fans). You have all been there, for that golden period gambling is easy, but there is a little thing called variance and it is there to bring you back down to earth and normally with a very big bump ! Your good run will end, it might last two days, two weeks, three months ( that was fantastic), some even last a year or so. But sooner or later you will struggle and finding winners will prove as difficult as it was easy a week earlier . If you like six teams and bet three, the other three will win, "that" goal never comes, players will miss when it is easier to score, the opposing keeping will have the game of his life and your team will not be safe even at 2-0 up with eight minutes to play ! You will be severely tested and it is now when you will find out how good a gambler you are, not when things are going your way.

You have to try and stay disciplined when the inclination is to "chase" losses and work even harder to get back in the winners circle. I made circa 32 units profit in that winning run, which betting almost exclusively on the asian markets is pretty damn good and have lost back about 5.5 units in the last three weeks. That might not sound much in comparison, but I have worked twice as hard in this period, almost nothing has gone right and it is tough to stay focused. The consolation for me is that ten years ago I would have lost 20 units back by now and that like a roller coaster, things are likely to turn around quickly. Keeping losses to a minimum when things go sour,mean that come the end of the year/season ( although sports betting never really stops) I will get full value for my winning run(s).

On the blog you will not always see these peaks and troughs as clearly as there are only some 20-30% of all "my" games previewed, but overall you should get some idea of the bigger picture. Just thought I would add that in case you are wondering what the heck I am talking about !
I sometimes use the blog as a sounding board and find it cathartic to write these things down, it helps keeps me focused.

Now that is off my chest, I can move on to the big game today Brentford - Sheffield Wednesday live on Sky, who are finally showing some "proper" football ! To be honest the Bees have a dire record in televised games, but I am assured by Owls fans that their record in front of the cameras is equally as poor, but I don't believe that as they beat us home and away in the 2005 playoffs ! No bet for me in this game or at all today, so I can watch purely as a supporter, which is how I normally prefer to watch my beloved Bees. If pushed, I suspect we will see goals and hope that most of those will be flying past Nicky Weaver in the Wednesday goal........ but no bet for me.
By the way, the photo ( taken by a young me about a hundred years ago and before someone asks, yes, they did have colour in those days, but black and white was cheaper !) is of said Jackie Graham, a player who never gave less than 100% and who my brother and I used to follow from pillar to post (stalk) around Griffin Park and beyond in our youth, forget your Messi's and Ronaldo's this was a true superstar of the game !

Good Luck.

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