Monday, October 18, 2010



These televised monday night games are almost always very keenly contested affairs, rarely decided by more than the odd goal. In 2010 to date, there have been 21 fixtures, with eleven producing draws, seven home wins and 14, or 66.67% of games going "under".

Therefore, based on those stats an average "margin or tax free" monday game would be priced roughly 3.00- 1.91- 7.00, compared to a normal Ligue 2 fixture over the same period of 2.33- 2.88- 4.46. Of course, the second is a far bigger sample of games (294) but it gives a clear indication of just how tight these games are, played more in the manner of a cup tie.

Looking at tonight's fixture, these are two clubs with very different histories. Boulogne are a tiny club who are still basking in the glow of their one and only season in the top flight and they are eager to make an immediate return to the "big show". Nantes are big time charlies and one of the most successful clubs in the history of french football with eight Ligue 1 titles, one within the last decade. For the home side, even Ligue 2 is considered success of sorts after many years in the doldrums, Nantes and their supporters consider this hard times and they are probably feeling a little sorry for themselves having to slum it at this "lowly" level.

Problem is that most other Ligue 2 clubs also see Nantes as a big club and tend to raise their game against them, especially when the television cameras are in town. As the glamour club of the division, Nantes are regularly picked for these high profile matches and they must be getting sick and tired of it, they have appeared in ten ( !!!) in the last 12 months alone, winning just one, losing six, with a 5-16 goal difference. This season they have lost just three times and two of those have come on Monday night, this is a sequence they have to break if they are to avoid a third consecutive season in "hell". Pretty sure that they will be looking to shut up shop tonight, hopefully get a point and then make the most of a good looking run of fixtures in the next 5-6 weeks, when they will be expecting to close in on a top three place.

Boulogne are currently unbeaten, but have won only twice in ten starts, drawing an incredible eight times, with goals being in very short supply at both ends of the pitch. Given that record, the likely approach of the visitors and the stats of these monday night games, the stalemate looks the logical call and is very attractively priced at circa 3.20.

draw 3.15 + exchanges....... currently 3.20 for small stakes.

Good Luck.

1 comment:

Jay said...

U are the man! Great insight and pick as always. Thanks for sharing!

- Jay