SATURDAY ....

Really busy day today and I am off to watch a game, no prizes for guessing which !

I sent my notes on the match below out yesterday evening and the odds have tumbled a little, but Millwall are still available at reasonably attractive quotes to win the game if you shop around and wish to take that option.

Please keep an eye on the blog in the coming days, I have a very big post planned on or before Tuesday next week which should be of interest to anyone that has followed the blog over all or any of the last five years.

CHAMPIONSHIP
MILLWALL - SWANSEA CITY

The Lions are two points off the only remaining playoff place, but with a better goal difference than Nottingham Forest who currently hold the desired position and with it the key to untold EPL riches, therefore, two wins for Millwall, who have a very win-able trip to Barnsley next week, would see them secure a post season place should Forest slip up and we all know what pressure does to teams !

Hosts will have the gifted Steve Morison back today and will be all guns blazing for the three points in front of a sell out New Den crowd. They will be ultra motivated and so will home boss Kenny Jackett, who still feels a little hard done by after being sacked by the Swans in 2007 and it is worthy of note, that he has never lost to a Swansea side since that day.

City have already secured a playoff spot and baring a major upset also know that they will be facing Reading, amazingly visiting boss Brendan Rodgers' former club and he will not want any injuries or knocks picked up today, in what for his club is a fairly meaningless fixture. He looks set to once again rest his "tired" star player Scott Sinclair, opting to save him for the bigger games ahead. Swansea got their big home win for their supporters on Monday and I suspect will not be too upset to lose this afternoon.

Millwall -0.25 2.08

Good Lck.

MONDAY ....

CHAMPIONSHIP
BRISTOL CITY - NOTTINGHAM FOREST

City have had 24 hours less recovery time and that should prove key, they have little to play for and have shown limited ambition in their last two starts, including a gruelling defeat at Sheffield United on saturday, failing to match the desire of the home team and losing the services of star striker Nicky Maynard for today, he was sent off in the first half at United. So, almost 50 minutes with ten men and they conceded chances freely with the Blades having 23 attempts on goals, 14 on target, that match unlike the rest of the UK was also played in a hail of rain and slippery underfoot conditions, very draining. Forest got their campaign back on track with a local derby win over Leicester on Friday and are now back in the final playoff place, but only on goal difference, with two other clubs also on 66 points and another just two behind and with all three clubs having win-able fixtures today, Forest will have to go all out for the win and I make them my best bet of the domestic programme.

Nottingham Forest -0.5 2.20 + ........ still quite a bit of 2.25 around.

LEAGUE 2
STOCKPORT COUNTY- NORTHAMPTON TOWN

Two struggling teams often mean goals and this should oblige. Only three wins will give County a chance of playing Football League football next week, sitting six point adrift of Town with a very poor goal difference, they have shown some fight for the battle coming off a 2-1 win at Port Vale and beating Southend 2-1 and drawing 2-2 with highflying and inform Stevenage in their last two home starts, however their total of 48 home goals conceded makes very scarey reading !

A point will not really suffice for Town either, unless they hear that results elsewhere have gone in their favour and they are not set up to keep things tight in any case, having conceded 12 in their last 5, with four of those producing four or more, on the plus side, they have scored two in each of their last three starts against Bury, Wycombe and Rotherham, a trio of the division's better teams. I think we will see both score twice today and this would be fun to watch.

"over" 2.5 goals 1.84

0.5 units "over" 3.5 goals 3.25 Hills... 3.40 Stan James.

CONFERENCE SOUTH

BRAINTREE TOWN - WELLING UNITED

Hosts were confirmed champions on saturday and have planned a party for after the game tonight, they have little to play for now and are going to rotate a little and ensure that as many players as possible get involved over their last two games. It is very difficult to see Braintree being too motivated on the pitch today, as after looking to be coasting towards promotion, they nearly blew things and were put under enormous pressure by Farnborough in recent weeks.

Welling are in the playoff places but only a point separates four clubs battling for two spots and they could really use all three points this afternoon.There is also an argument that Braintree might not be too concerened about the result and want to put a spanner in the playoff hopes of local rivals Chelmsford City who are a much bigger club and might attract more local attention in the higher flight.

Welling have lost their way in their last two outings dropping points against TWO teams who are likely to be relegated, however, they have tended to perform better against the top sides all season and have already posted ten road wins, they are unbeaten in seven starts ( five wins) againt playoff contenders since the start of last month, scoring 15 goals in the process and it looks clear that they need a quality of opposition to bring out the best in them. Regardless of which they simply HAVE to get something out of the game today. Handicap start is a bonus.

1.5 units Welling +0.25 1.85 +.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ....

Very basic notes, written Friday morning ....

LEAGUE 2
OXFORD UNITED - CHESTERFIELD

I like United today, they will have another massive holiday crowd to cheer them on, some 9,000 + and the U's will want to give them some positive mental memories for the summer, with Oxford looking to be a very big player at this level next season. They have already sold 3,000 season tickets for the next campaign and this club will not be hanging around too much longer in League 2. Chesterfield are seven points clear of the pack and have a big game at home to second placed Bury on monday, if they could choose one of these two matches to win, it would be the home fixture and in what will be very hot conditions, we might see them reserve a little energy, especially if they fall behind. United won the reverse fixture 2-1 so also a chance for a famous double over the best team in the division.

Oxford United level ball 1.90.

BUNDESLIGA
EINTRACHT FRANKFURT-BAYERN MUNICH

Frankfurt are four points clear of the drop zone and would like something from this game, but it is perhaps not essential and for Bayern, it could be the difference between Europa and Champions League and only one is acceptable for the Bavarian giant. Hannover went back above them into third with a win at Freiburg last night and anything less than three points for Bayern, will leave matters outside of their own control. The visitors will be buoyed by the five goals they put past Leverkusen last week and by the return to full training of Badstuber and Schweinstiger yesterday and both should take some part. Frankfurt have won just one home start in nine and not kept a clean sheet in five, goals have been a real problem all season for the Bundesliga's lowest ( 29) scorers and if Bayern get their noses in front they could/should run away with this.

Bayern Munich -1 ball 1.87.

Good Luck.

SUNDAY ....

Absolute disaster for me yesterday and April has been a very poor month. March was incredibly good and I have obviously made up my mind to give all the profits back in double quick time !

Very frustrating, but I am sure that I will turn things around quickly, as all long term readers of the blog will know. Not posting any football bets on here today (hooray I hear you cry !), but will put up my basic thoughts on the final round of the USPGA tour event, the Valero Texas Open.

Where the leaderboard looks a lot like this .....

-7 Steele

-6 Tringale

-5 Chappell

-5 Snedeker

-4 Perez

-4 Howell III

-4 Scott

-3 field

The three first named players are very inexperienced and should not really be up to winning a tour event at this stage of their careers. The trio do not have even a top ten finish between them and to suddenly compete at the business end is almost unheard of, today is going to be tough for all of them. Snedeker is solid over the weekend, but he ( one win in 78 starts), Perez ( one in 244) and Howell ( one title in 216) win very infrequently.

Adam Scott should have won the Masters last week and is playing at a very high level, he has finished 6-4-2 in his last three events and is primed to win. Scott is defending champion here and came from four strokes back on sunday last year to win with a 67, so from just three behind today, this should be easy ! He also shot 67 in the final round at Augusta and anything close to that should be good enough to see him go very close this afternoon. Scott is a seven time winner on tour and has another eleven worldwide titles, so a proven winner.

The harsh scrubland here reminds him of Brisbane and the sandbelt greens he knows so well from his youth. The course was designed by fellow Aussie Greg Norman, so that is not surprising and I expect AS to win this. He is very comfortable in the state and his last three tour wins have all come in Texas. Decent value price about the only player on the leaderboard who really knows how to win.

Adam Scott 6.0 + ....... 6.50 + in a place.

Good Luck.

STANLEY ON THE RISE ............

ACCRINGTON STANLEY - OXFORD UNITED

Stanley have won eight home games in a row, a tremendous sequence of results which have seen them climb the table and lie in eigth place only outside the playoffs on goal difference, they will be hungry for the points to keep that run going and the pressure up on the teams above them in the table.

United have had a pleasing first season back in the Football League and perhaps could have been further up the table if they had strengthened their defence a little in the transfer window, instead they concentrated on upgrading their already decent strike force and they are very potent going forward. The U's have scored in 10 of 13 road games, five times notching two or more, including two at leaders Chesterfield and four at post season bound Torquay. They were coasting at 2-0 up at home to another top three side in Wycombe last week, before letting two points slip through defensive errors. They are without a key central defender today and proably know that their only chance to get a result today and keep their own slim promotion hopes alive is to score a couple of goals and that is what I suggest we bet them to do.

Stanley have tightened up considerably in recent months, but still play a wide open style here and have conceded two or more on seven occasions this season.

Constable, Cradock, Potter and MacLean will all be josting to form part of the U's usual three pronged strikeforce and each is better than your average fourth tier frontman, surely goals today and hopefully two for the visitors.

Oxford to score "over" 1.5 goals 3.0 + ........... 3.30 in a place.

Good Luck.

THE BLUES ARE COMING HOME ......

CARLISLE UNITED - COLCHESTER UNITED

I have to give the visitors a chance at big looking odds this afternoon. They still have an outside chance of promotion, but to get involved would probably have to win all of their five remaining games, however, with the first four of those coming against teams with nothing really to play for, it is far from a totally lost cause. They will also be buoyed by a win over Rochdale last time out, who were unbeaten in six ( five wins) before that and have since beaten classy Southampton to bounce staright back, so the form lines are solid.

Home boss Greg Abbott was talking yesterday about naming an unchanged team, previously he had stated that he would blood some youngsters in the remaining games, whatever he decides neither will be ideal in my opinion, the youth players will lack experience and the regulars are surely going to feel the strain sooner or later. The Blues played road games in the South on March 1,5,12,25,29 April 3,9 and 12th, that is just scheduling madness ! They have not played a home game in a month and the surroundinga might seem almost as alien to the home team as the visitors. Either way, Colchester have the greater motivation and arrive looking for the win and far fresher, having just played three games in the last 24 days.

Colchester United to win 3.30.... a little 3.45 on the exchanges.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ....

BLUE SQUARE NORTH

STAFFORD RANGERS - DROYLSDEN

Four rounds to play, hosts are one point from safety with an inferior goal difference to the teams above them in the table, so let's call it two points. They looked down and out a few weeks ago, but have proved tough to beat in recent starts, losing two in seven ( a huge improvement on what went before, in a division where there is a big gulf between the top and bottom clubs. They looked to have done some reasonable loan deadline business and are probably six points, two wins from safety. They have two home starts in the next five days and then end with two road games. Next up in midweek is a visit from a club battling for the playoffs, in arguably their best form of the season and coming off a famous win. Therefore, this match against a mid table Droylsden team with nothing to play for and in bad shape, with one point from a possible twelve in April and ten goals conceded, is about as good as it is going to get at this stage of the season. Local teams Wolves and Stoke are not playing saturday, so good chance for Rangers to pick up a few more "fans" and the club have called upon the supporters to crank up the atmosphere in what they know is a massive game for the whole town.

Stafford -0.5 2.40 + .... up to 2.50 in places.

Good Luck.

WATCHING LIVE GAMES .....

I would urge any of you for whom betting on sport is more than just a hobby, something you are intending to make money from, to watch as many live events as possible and I mean in person, not on television when you are watching a producer's idea of what is important.

You can see and learn so much more at a football match than you ever will from the comfort of your armchair and that information should prove key in the hunt for winners. I was at the Millwall-Reading game early season and wrote this the following day LINK.

I did not really want to make a long trip over to South-East London on a midweek night, but it was very worthwhile and despite losing on that game, came away knowing that both were decent Championship teams and that I would be getting that money back several times over during the course of the season. Now the Royals are looking secure in a playoff spot, having made a deep run in the FA Cup and Millwall are up to seventh and looking to burst into the post season party. So whenever you get the chance, go and watch a live match or event.

We are following three matches in play tonight and I have one more pre match selection ( minimal stakes). As always I will send an update with first half notes and any further selections within a minute or two of the first 45 minutes ending.

LEYTON ORIENT - CARLISLE UNITED

United ran out of steam and conceded two late goals at MK Dons on saturday and it is hardly surprising, as they have suffered a gruelling six weeks with tonight their eighth road game in that period, if that in itself wasn't bad enough, Carlisle is about as far north as you can go without invading Scotland and all of those games have been in the South, including four trips to the capital, three for midweek games, one to the south coast and another to deepest Someset, again for a midweek fixture. In the last 43 days I would estimate, nine were spent sleeping in hotels, with some 100+ hours on the motorway clocking up over 8,000 km of road miles and believe me, motorway driving in the UK is not fun ! Despite them arguing otherwise, United's work for the season is over, they are safe in midtable and have the JP Trophy safely tucked up in the boardroom, they can save what energy remains for home games in front of their own fans. Orient still have plenty to play for and could go level on points with Bournemouth, currently in the final playoff spot, with a win tonight. They have lost their way a little recently after an incredible run around the turn of the year, but played well enough at home to Southampton on saturday and will be up for this tonight. Looking at their last five home wins, they have led in four at the half time break, by an average 2-0 scoreline and have not conceded a first half goal in any. They are a very solid 11-1-1 when leading at the half and with United only collecting eight points from losing positions all season, there is a very good chance that if the O's get their nose in front, that they will hold on for the win. Small bet to get us underway for the live games, Orient to lead at both half and full time, half stakes, I will update this match along with the other two at the half ( by email).

0.5 units Orient-Orient double result 3.20 + .......... up to 3.35 on the exchanges.

PORTSMOUTH - COVENTRY CITY

Pompey have very little to play for now, the visitors probably need one more win to secure another Championship season and the managerless Sky Blues will be happy to put this season to bed asap, having won just two of their last twenty starts, a dismal record. Hosts have impressed us on several occasions in recent months, they are far more solid at the back now and break very quickly with Nugent and Cotterill quickly turning Kitson into a three pronged strike force. They are especially strong in the second period, when they are easily the best team outside the top six and average 2.0 points per game the best record in the Championship when going in level at the break, 1.13 per game more than City, who's miserly total of 0.87 is only "beaten " by PNE.

SCUNTHORPE UNITED - READING

You all know that I rate Reading, especially when Mikele Leigertwood plays. They now have a degree of comfort in the top six and are "freerolling " for an automatic promotion spot, so will surely go all out for maximum points, as will United,boosted by a 4-1 win over league leaders QPR at the weekend, yet still five points from safety. These two played out a wide open 2-2 draw here last season at about the same time of year on a very bad pitch and this is likely to be a case of history repeating and something of a goal fest, although this time, when the dust has settled, we will surely have a winner. United have lost 20 second halves, scoring a league low 20 goals after the break, when Reading have collected 67 points a total only bettered by QPR and Norwich the top two sides in the Championship.

Good Luck.

TUESDAY ....

CHAMPIONSHIP

MILLWALL - BRISTOL CITY

I feel certain that we will will see goals at the New Den tonight, the Lions are four points off the playoffs and a draw has very little value to them with games fast running out. They are in great form and are scoring freely with three or more in 3 of their last 4 outings, they are just coming off a famous win by the odd goal in five over Leeds at the weekend and that was a really open encounter with end to end action. Also key to this bet is an earlyish goal and with Millwall's fantastic first half record, they are the best team in the Championship over the opening 45 minutes ( collecting 65 points), that is likely to come and will set this bet up nicely.

City are stuck in midtable with little to play for, however, they are 13 matches without a draw and have also been involved in some free scoring encounters, conceding seven in their last two road games, with their last six all going "over". Their goals tally has gone through the roof with the return from long term injury of star striker Nicky Maynard, who has six in eight starts since his return in February. He is very motivated to keep the goals flowing as he has "bet" several team mates that he will still finish as top scorer at the club despite only playing for three months, he is also in the middle of new contract negotiations and also has a tremendous "April" record to protect, averaging close to a goal per game throughout his professional career in this month. There was some 3.50 + around about his scoring anytime tonight, if you can still find this it is worth a small bet, but it is "over" for me.

"over" 2.5 goals 1.90 +.

Good Luck.

CANARIES BREED WINNING MENTALITY ..........

CHAMPIONSHIP SWANSEA CITY- NORWICH CITY

We (subscribers) are sitting on a very nice double stake bet on Norwich to get promoted at 4.0, which is now trading as low as 1.57, but I still cannot resist taking a little on them today getting a handicap start at the Liberty Stadium. I would take the Canaries with a start against any Championship team, at any venue and have no alternative but to get involved today with the Swans having a mini blip at present, conceding eight goals and collecting just four points from their last five starts. Three of those games came against teams in the bottom six and the only win verses a Forest team without a win in eight, the formlines do not look good.

Norwich under very impressive boss Paul Lambert have got the winning habit and as we discussed previously, they expect to win every time they take to the field of play and that is half the battle. He has plenty of options today, with new loan signing Daniel Pacheco of Liverpool impressing in the 6-0 demolition of Scunthorpe looking to get involved alongside the prolific Grant Holt who signed a contract extension this week, another boost for the club for whom all news is good news at present. They do have a doubt about Wes Hoolahan who is a driving force from midfield, I would prefer him to play and think he will, but Lambert will only play him if he is 100% fit, no gambling this close to a return to the promised land of EPL football. Canaries are unbeaten in nine, have lost just one in 18, have a terrific record against all the top teams and have had more attempts on goal than any other Championship side.Their only loss in four months came in a 2-1 defeat at Burnley, whey they ran the Clarets ragged in the second half and on another day would have won by three. Another big step towards the top flight for the Canaries.

Norwich +0.25 2.13.

Good Luck.

UPDATE ....

I have no idea what is wrong with the blog at the moment, it is impossible to start a new paragraph and it makes any previews impossible to read..... really annoying. I will try to sort it out when I have more time.

FRIDAY

ROUND 2 MATCH UP RORY McILROY - RICKIE FOWLER Pinnacle have priced up these two young guns in a second round match up. Fowler has not played in the Masters before, which is not ideal but played well enough yesterday shooting two under par and shot four under for the back nine, I could not find anyone that played those holes better, but am happy to be corrected on that. He has prepared really well, came here last week and practiced for two days, spending a lot of time talking with the local caddies and learning the greens. He also played a full 18 holes with Phil Mickelson, apparently PM gave him a lot of advice and then the two battled it out, with the veteran winning the money only on the 18th hole. Fowler's two best friends ( one is an amateur) both qualified this week so he is happy and comfortable in his surroundings hanging out with the pair of them. McIlroy is leading the tournament having shot 65 yesterday, that was a terrific round of golf, but it is hard to shoot low two days runing and Friday is not really his day, he was ranked 189th on tour last year for Round 2 scoring averaging 72.6 per round, including a 77 here ( 73 on Friday in 2009) that was 146 places below "Rookie of the Year" Fowler and 2.39 strokes per round on average more, a masive margin over a full season. This year Fowler already has a Round 2 62 to his name and at odds against with "tie no bet", I have to take him, inexperienced or not, this afternoon. Fowler to beat McIlroy 2.10 Pinnacle. That is my selection, but if it is not available to you, you could consider the three ball odds for Fowler at circa 3.0 , but that also includes Jason Day a very promising young Aussie, so you may want to reduce stakes accordingly.

TUESDAY ....

READING - PRESTON NORTH END I am going to be covering this match myself and will update all three games at the half time break by email. Reading were fortunate to take the points from Portsmouth at the weekend, Pompey had several clear cut chances to take the lead, but the game was over with the breakaway penalty and red card, although even then, Portsmouth still created a couple of chances reduced to ten men. You all know that I am keen on this Reading side, but there is no disputing that they are a better side with Mikele Leigertwood in the starting eleven and he does face a late test this evening. However they came about, those three points secured the Royals a place in the playoff zone and they will be looking to put some distance between themselves and Nottingham Forest tonight, not least because the two teams meet at the City Ground on saturday in the proverbial "six pointer". Preston found a way to win a tremendously open encounter with Swansea at the weekend and that, their third win in a row, has put them in position to move to within five points of safety today, something which looked unthinkable just a few weeks ago. They have picked up road points at Forest, Norwich and Watford ( where they should have won) in the last 7-8 weeks and are unbeaten in four away starts, so will arrive in confident mood. Surprisingly little between these two clubs, who are separated by 17 league places, in the first half of games. Hosts collecting 1.39 points on average, North End 1.28, after the break 1.65 and a league low 0.63 respectively. The win over Swansea being one of only four PNE have collected in the second period. Reading have collected points in 7 of the 11 games in which they have trailed at the half. DAGENHAM - PETERBOROUGH UNITED Daggers are outside the drop zone by one point with a superior goal difference and every point for them is absolutely vital. Three points tonight would see them pass Notts County and Tranmere, which would be of extra value as they meet both in the next eleven days, with a daunting visit to league leaders Brighton sandwiched inbetween.Both teams failed to hold onto a lead at the weekend, Dagenham blowing a 1-0 advantage at Exeter, Peterborough throwing away a 3-1 halftime lead at home to Bournemouth on Friday night, which at least gave Posh an extra 24 hours recovery time. The draw will be of little use to Boro who look booked for a post season spot and will be looking to gamble for the win which would see them close to within three points of second placed Huddersfield whom they travel to meet on saturday.Always plenty of action after the break when Posh are playing, they have lost four of the eleven in which they have led, yet won four in which they have trailed and their games have produced a league high ( by far) 86 goals. Daggers are also quite good at chasing games, collecting points in 5 of the 10 in which they have trailed. Draw at half time could be interesting, with Posh posting nine wins and averaging 1.93 when level ,which ranks then second in the division, Dagenham a lowly 23rd with 0.85 points. SOUTHAMPTON - CHARLTON ATHLETIC Saints are in the automatic promotion driving seat and a win would take them to within two points of second placed Huddersfield with two games in hand. They pretty much dominated the reverse fixture two weeks ago, but a defensive error cost them dear and the points were shared. They came back from 2-0 down at home to Dons at the weekend to snatch a most unlikely looking win so I suppose that balances things out over the two games, Jonathan Forte came off the bench to score two goals in as many minutes in that game and the former Scunthorpe United player will be looking to make a debut start this evening.Charlton have very little to play for now and that has been evident through recent starts when they have conceded first in their last eight outings, coming from behind on saturday to beat local rivals Leyton Orient 3-1, they might not be so fortunate tonight with Saints a perfect 12-0-0 when ahead at the half. Hosts are 20-11-6 in the second half and their average of 1.91 points is bettered only by Brighton, they have won 3 of the 8 in which they trailed. Key stat for the visitors is that they have only gone on to win five of the 21 matches in which they were level at half time. Confirmed : Richardson and Dickson come into the full back roles for Saints, Dale Stephens makes his debut in midfield, only a place on the bench for Forte. For Charlton Bradley Wright-Phillips passed a late test. Good Luck.