Tuesday, April 12, 2011


I would urge any of you for whom betting on sport is more than just a hobby, something you are intending to make money from, to watch as many live events as possible and I mean in person, not on television when you are watching a producer's idea of what is important.

You can see and learn so much more at a football match than you ever will from the comfort of your armchair and that information should prove key in the hunt for winners. I was at the Millwall-Reading game early season and wrote this the following day LINK.

I did not really want to make a long trip over to South-East London on a midweek night, but it was very worthwhile and despite losing on that game, came away knowing that both were decent Championship teams and that I would be getting that money back several times over during the course of the season. Now the Royals are looking secure in a playoff spot, having made a deep run in the FA Cup and Millwall are up to seventh and looking to burst into the post season party. So whenever you get the chance, go and watch a live match or event.

We are following three matches in play tonight and I have one more pre match selection ( minimal stakes). As always I will send an update with first half notes and any further selections within a minute or two of the first 45 minutes ending.


United ran out of steam and conceded two late goals at MK Dons on saturday and it is hardly surprising, as they have suffered a gruelling six weeks with tonight their eighth road game in that period, if that in itself wasn't bad enough, Carlisle is about as far north as you can go without invading Scotland and all of those games have been in the South, including four trips to the capital, three for midweek games, one to the south coast and another to deepest Someset, again for a midweek fixture. In the last 43 days I would estimate, nine were spent sleeping in hotels, with some 100+ hours on the motorway clocking up over 8,000 km of road miles and believe me, motorway driving in the UK is not fun ! Despite them arguing otherwise, United's work for the season is over, they are safe in midtable and have the JP Trophy safely tucked up in the boardroom, they can save what energy remains for home games in front of their own fans. Orient still have plenty to play for and could go level on points with Bournemouth, currently in the final playoff spot, with a win tonight. They have lost their way a little recently after an incredible run around the turn of the year, but played well enough at home to Southampton on saturday and will be up for this tonight. Looking at their last five home wins, they have led in four at the half time break, by an average 2-0 scoreline and have not conceded a first half goal in any. They are a very solid 11-1-1 when leading at the half and with United only collecting eight points from losing positions all season, there is a very good chance that if the O's get their nose in front, that they will hold on for the win. Small bet to get us underway for the live games, Orient to lead at both half and full time, half stakes, I will update this match along with the other two at the half ( by email).

0.5 units Orient-Orient double result 3.20 + .......... up to 3.35 on the exchanges.


Pompey have very little to play for now, the visitors probably need one more win to secure another Championship season and the managerless Sky Blues will be happy to put this season to bed asap, having won just two of their last twenty starts, a dismal record. Hosts have impressed us on several occasions in recent months, they are far more solid at the back now and break very quickly with Nugent and Cotterill quickly turning Kitson into a three pronged strike force. They are especially strong in the second period, when they are easily the best team outside the top six and average 2.0 points per game the best record in the Championship when going in level at the break, 1.13 per game more than City, who's miserly total of 0.87 is only "beaten " by PNE.


You all know that I rate Reading, especially when Mikele Leigertwood plays. They now have a degree of comfort in the top six and are "freerolling " for an automatic promotion spot, so will surely go all out for maximum points, as will United,boosted by a 4-1 win over league leaders QPR at the weekend, yet still five points from safety. These two played out a wide open 2-2 draw here last season at about the same time of year on a very bad pitch and this is likely to be a case of history repeating and something of a goal fest, although this time, when the dust has settled, we will surely have a winner. United have lost 20 second halves, scoring a league low 20 goals after the break, when Reading have collected 67 points a total only bettered by QPR and Norwich the top two sides in the Championship.

Good Luck.

No comments: