Tuesday, December 11, 2012




I do think that backing teams at sub 2.0 on the road in Ligue 2 is a winning long term policy, but I priced PSG at circa 1.70 for this "must win" game and so have to take the current quote.

They are already five points adrift of leaders Lyon, who host basement club Nancy tomorrow and with the big two scheduled to clash at the weekend, failure to capture maximum points tonight, could see them go into that match more than two wins behind the team who won the title seven straight years from the 2001-02 season and know how to get the job done.

We opposed Valenciennes at Nancy, off level ball, over the weekend and they were fortunate to come away with a share of the points, ahead of that I wrote "Valenciennes have had a terrific season and will be delighted with their top five position, but in reality, they are only ten clear of the drop zone and another midtable finish, will, I am fairly sure , be the extent of their ambition for this season. Performances have tailed off somewhat recently and they were very fortunate to beat Reims 1-0 last week. They arrive without Brazilian central defender Gil ( 15-1-0), he has missed just one match in the last 12 months, a 3-0 home defeat to Evian and will be missed."

Gil is back tonight , but holding midfielder Remi Gomis ( 10-0-0) will be a big loss, especially with the visitors having so many options in the middle of the park, more of that shortly, hosts have lost just one in ten when Gomis plays at least 45 minutes and that came on the road at Lyon, by the odd goal in five.

Thiago Motta returned for PSG against Evian and they looked imperious in a 4-0 win, during which they completed a Ligue 1 high 619 passes, with fellow defensive midfielder Blaise Matuidi (15-2-0) and Marco Verratti (12-0-2), both back from suspension this evening and Clement Chantôme and Javier Pastore now in good form, PSG have a surplus of midfield riches at their disposal and all will have to be on their toes to start on a regular basis, with competition for places really keen right now. Coach Carlo Ancelotti praised the change in attitude from Pastore and  to be honest, I am really looking forward to the game with Lyon, which could be a classic, but first, the big spending Parisians need the points tonight.

The h2h matches here in recent seasons have been fun, with PSG winning the last four, scoring 12 goals, including a 4-3 and 3-2 win. There is some 3.75-4.33 around for PSG to score over 2.5 goals which is attractive if you can bet that, but I am keeping things simply and opting for 1.5 units PSG -0.5 ball 1.87 asian line.... there is some 1.91 around in places.

Valenciennes: Charruau, Leca, Penneteau - Angoua, Bong, Ducourtioux, Isimat-Mirin, Gil, Lala, Mater, Nery - Danic, Da Silva, Dossevi, Kadir, Saez, Sanchez - Aboubakar, Le Tallec, Pujol

PSG: Areola, Douchez, Sirigu - Alex, Armand, Camara, Jallet, Maxwell, Sakho, Thiago Silva, Van Der Wiel - Chantôme, Matuidi, Motta, Pastore, Verratti - Hoarau, Ibrahimovic, Lavezzi, Menez

Good Luck.

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