Monday, December 10, 2012


Today's email..... which covered, stats for the last nine months on the email service, long term positions, a change in staking plan for 2013, the new website, my beloved Bees, the 49ers and the championship race in the NFC, plus draws, what draws (!) in La Liga. Quite a bit for an email in which there is no "official" selection !

I am going to send two emails tomorrow, the first at the normal time of 10.00 will cover the Ligue 2 programme, the follow up at 14.00  will include all the other Tuesday fixtures and almost certainly the early Wednesday matches from the Club World Cup .

Lyon, Pescara. the Giants, 49ers and Monterrey all won for us yesterday and we managed to turn a circa 10% profit on the week, which was like bountiful riches after the previous six weeks, we started keeping accurate email statistics from April and were flying high towards the end of October with an incredible ROI of 122% for the seven months, which, considering we are betting almost exclusively on asian lines and are previewing circa 24-25 matches/events per week, were sensational , albeit, unsustainable returns. A blip was always going to come and we have paid for our mid summer fun, we are now running at a ROI of 114% + for the last 36 weeks, across 753 red type bets and over 850 match/event previews. Those are really good figures taken as a whole, the way I view it , is that variance has had it's day now and we should enjoy the best of things in the coming week or two, or three. It just felt to me like things changed last week and I expect to see a few goals go in off backsides and plenty of last minute winners for us, just to even everything back out again.

These figures do not include any of the black type "suggestions" and there have been plenty at huge odds (including 28-1 and 25-1 see foot of the email) and a lot more over the last tough seven weeks at circa 3.0-4.0, so the opportunity was there for everyone to have improved upon those returns, as well as to benefit from the information contained in the actual content, something we discussed recently. We also have strong long term positions with Manchester United, Watford, Cardiff City, Brentford and 49ers, I hope that most of you are on at least one of those and that they can earn us a real bonus later in the season.

I am going to ditch black type suggestions completely from January 1, everything will be red type or nothing, this will mean more lower stake selections . I will also upgrade the maximum stake selection to 3 units, keeping the next highest at 1.75, which is something I should have done sooner. I will go over all this again nearer the time.

The new website is still on schedule and should be up and running in a little over three weeks, this will be a big upgrade overall and there will be additional features for subscribers, if not immediately, then very shortly after the launch. These will be incororated as soon as we feel everything is running smoothly. There will also be some other exciting ( at least for me !) changes happening shortly, which I am hoping will coincide with the website launch.

I do not want to go on too much about this in case any scouts/agents stumble across it, but the potential in the Brentford squad is a little frightening. Nine of the 15 outfield players in the squad for Saturday were aged 21 or younger, they out fought and out played the best (second best ?) footballing side in the division in MK Dons and are only going to get better. The form of Harry Forrester is worrying the life out of me with the transfer window approaching, he is still only 21 and long term readers might recall, I told you he turned down a contract offer from Ajax ( it's true !) to sign for the Bees. He was injury hit for the first season and also became a very young father, so we only saw glimpses of his ability last season, but injury free this time round, he has flourished, is totally unplayable at times and will play at a much higher level, as will at least four of this squad and I do not mean the Championship.

The 49ers remain in second place in the NFC and three wins, or two wins from their remaining games (combined with a loss somewhere along the line for the Packers), would ensure they ended the season ranked at least #2. We have a key weekend approaching with the hungry Giants travelling to meet the #1 ranked Falcons, the Bears hosting the Packers and the Niners travelling to play the Patriots. Good news for us is that New England are playing Houston tonight, so will be coming off a short week. More of all those next Sunday.

I am not overly interested in the matches today and am going to pass and wait for tomorrow, I did look at the La Liga match between Rayo Vallecano and Real Zaragoza, not least because of the scarcity of draws in Spain, with Primera games running at 18.79 % this season, of course, these are a little lopsided as the big two do not draw many, but at the same stage last season , they were running at almost 27%. In betting terms the average draw was 3.71 after 15 rounds last season and is 5.33 this time round.There are many ways you could view these or use the data, I would suggest that taking the draw out of the equation and opting for the bigger odds whenever possible would be one option. For example, if you liked the home side here, -0.5 ball 2.16 would probably offer better long term returns than -0.25 ball 1.85, if you favoured Zaragoza, the win odds of 3.60 might be better than 1.80 with the half ball handicap option, as with that you are effectively betting both the draw and the away @ 3.60.

These two have actually drawn just one match each this season and neither should have ended all square, Zaragoza's came last time out at Mallorca, where they scored early and were battered after that, with the hosts missing a penalty, before equalising late. Rayo had an early season 0-0 home draw with Sevilla, where they played circa 25 minutes with ten men, so were then playing for the draw and the visitors missed TWO penalties !

Just one cleansheet in ten for the hosts, who have conceded a massive 25 times over that sequence, Zaragoza are 2-1-4 on the road, their four defeats have come at Real Madrid, Barcelona ,Valencia and Sociedad, so not exactly an easy schedule and you could argue that they are 2-1-1 from the only winable fixtures. They have been creating a lot of chances, even averaging over 14 attempts on goal in those losses to the "big 3", they seem certain to get chances tonight and if forced to pick, I would suggest a very minimal bet on the straight away win at that circa 3.60.
Good Luck.
In addition to the red type selections, I have also put up "suggestions" in this sequence that have won at odds of 28-1 LINK  25-1 LINK , 9-1 LINK, 12-1 LINK 8-1 and many others, none of which are included in the profits shown above.


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