Saturday, September 12, 2009

SATURDAY ...........


Southend took a share of the spoils yesterday and landed our bet, the US Open tennis was a washout weather wise and the Serena-Clijsters match has been rescheduled for today.

I have previewed six matches on the email service today, here is one to be going on with .....

PREMIER LEAGUE

STOKE CITY- CHELSEA

Credit where credit is due and City have made their Potteries home a real fortress in the last couple of seasons, noise levels are through the roof (not that there is one) and the Stoke players do not give you a moment's peace, it is a very tough place to go.

The two sides met at a very similar stage last season (round 6), at which time, City were still coming to terms with life in the top flight and Chelsea eased to a 2-0 win, but the first goal took 39 minutes to come and afterwards even home boss Tony Pulis admitted that the visitors were on another level. Since that day Stoke are 11-5-2 on home soil in the EPL and have conceded just eight goals, none so far this campaign. In fact, in five domestic starts, they have only allowed goals at Anfield.

Chelsea are playing well and creating chances, but an early strike is proving elusive, with so many of their players having been away with their national team this past ten days or so, it might again take them a while to get going. In their five starts in 09/10 they have yet to score a goal before the 37th minute and tended to step up a gear after the break.

I will take City to hold out for 45 minutes this time and Blues to once again come on strong in the second period, at circa 7/2 that looks far and away the best value available here .

4 points draw half time/ Chelsea full time 4.50 general quote.

Good Luck.

Friday, September 11, 2009

FRIDAY ...........


ENGLAND DIVISION 1

SOUTHEND UNITED - LEEDS UNITED

Regular readers will know that I am keen on both of these teams and certain that the visitors will get promoted this season, they are simply too good and their squad too big and strong. However, they cannot be expected to win every game, Simon Grayson's men are due a wake up call and it is just as likely to come under the Roots Hall floodlights, where Southend have some famous performances and victories in recent years, than anywhere else.

The hosts play a very nice passing style and whilst that lack the squad depth of the visitors, on a going day they can defeat anyone at this level. They demolished Leyton Orient here last week, when we discussed them in detail and apart from the unlucky loss at Swindon, are unbeaten this season. Jermaine Beckford remains a doubt for Leeds and whilst they have plenty of offensive options, he would be missed and will only start if 100% fit, the Shrimpers have their own man looking to make a big name for himself at this level, in Lee Barnard, he scored all three last week and the winner in this fixture a couple of seasons ago. Hosts are unbeaten in three h2h games here, winning two and they look great value getting a half goal start, as Grayson knows that a point tonight will one earned, not two lost.

6.5 points Southend +1/2 ball 1.95 asian line.

US OPEN TENNIS

SERENA WILLIAMS- KIM CLIJSTERS

A fantastic return to the big time for Kim Clijsters and it is great to see her back. I am looking forward to this match up, Serena has to be favoured to progress, this is her backyard and she has not even dropped a set at Flushing Meadow since 2007, but I suspect that might change today. Even if it doesn't, I at least feel that the Belgian will be able to take her to two close sets, so like the over 21.5 games.

It was very windy at FM yesterday and Williams was struggling big time with the conditions in her doubles match, especially on serve. Similar weather is forecast today and that will level things out a bit, Clijsters was practicing at the same time ,for I think the first time this tournament, as she has been resting on "off" days, so will have got an idea of what to expect and as she takes the ball so early, might be better able to handle the wind.

6.5 points "over" 21.5 games 1.89 Pinnacle Sports.

Good Luck.

Tuesday, September 08, 2009

TUESDAY .......

ENGLAND BLUE SQUARE PREMIER

BARROW-YORK CITY

STEVENAGE BOROUGH -EASTBOURNE

I gave York something of a glowing report on Saturday (reproduced below) and two early goals saw them ease to victory and also put in another impressive all round display, they really are a team at the top of their game at present.

At the same time, Barrow were suffering a frightful 6-1 hammering at home to Rushden. The home side were big drifters in Asia through the course of the day and given that there was no "real" reason, that is a little alarming, especially given the manner of the defeat. That is my only reservation, I do not normally like to oppose teams after a big defeat, especially on home soil, but I cannot let City go unbacked, so have just reduced stakes a little. Hosts will probably struggle this year, maybe just doing enough to stay in the BSP. These midweek games do their players few favours either, as Barrow is so remote, that training is usually held 100+ miles away and even two home games in three days, with possibly a training session in between, will involve an awful lot of road miles. Away win.

Stevenage are another side running into form and they will not be far off the top of the table, come the end of the season. They have only lost once this season, at league leaders Oxford and were quite impressive that day and maybe deserved a point. However, it is on home soil, at their Broadhall way home, where they will pick up most of their points. Borough have not lost there since November 2008, during which time they have a 15-5-0 record, winning 75%. Last season they started very slowly and it was not until approaching Christmas that they hit their stride, since when they have lost just 3 of all 32 league starts. They travel to high flying Mansfield next, so are eager to get the three points tonight and also a little revenge, as Eastbourne did the double over them last season.

The visitors improved their squad in the summer and look booked for a mid table finish, free from too many relegation concerns, but they should not be winning games like this, as I rate the home side clearly superior. Odds are not fantastic, but acceptable, if you are following the game on the internet, late goals might well be on the cards and this is something you could profit from if your bookmaker is offering "live" odds. Eastbourne have conceded nine goals this season, seven have come in the second half and three in the last five minutes, hosts have themselves scored twice after the 86th minute in two of their last four starts. So take a look at Stevenage, or the "over" at around the 80 minute mark.

6 points York -1/2 ball 2.0 + a little 2.10 around.

6 points Stevenage -3/4 ball 1.80 asian line ...... although take a look at the "in running" market late in the game.

Good Luck.

YORK CITY - CRAWLEY TOWN

I have heard fantastic reports about York City this season, they have lost twice, but those defeats came against division bigwigs Wrexham and Oxford and even opposing fans admitted that the Minstermen deserved something from both games. Team spirit is said to be sky high after consecutive wins and the mood in training is positive in the extreme. The City board have shown great ambition in allowing boss Martin Foyle to sign three strikers, including £55k on Michael Gash, who was being watched by a number of league clubs, this is big money for a BSP side and the quality is begining to shine through.

The report of the win over Histon made excellent reading: "In truth, City deserved much more than a 3-1 score line, they bossed the game from start to finish and, most impressively, won by playing stylish passing football against one of the league’s most direct and combative sides." York have had a full weeks rest since then, which included two days off to recharge their batteries.

No such luxury for Crawley who were never at the races in a 3-0 loss at Luton on Tuesday. They created little and could easily have lost by a far greater margin, there are nursing several knocks and are set to struggle against a well rested home side, almost at full strength and in very confident mood. I make City a strong bet.

Monday, September 07, 2009


DEUTSCHE BANK CHAMPIONSHIP OUTRIGHT

PADRAIG HARRINGTON

Packed leaderboard with twelve players within three strokes of the lead, however, I have doubts about many of them, including blog/email favourite Steve Stricker who is one of the three joint leaders at -13, he is not the best front runner in the world and I prefer him coming from off the pace.

Padraig Harrington has been knocking on the door in recent weeks and is a winner waiting to happen. He is 2-10-2 in his last three outings and blew his chance with a poor final round in the first two of those, infact, we were firmly against him in the second of those. He stepped up last week in the Barclays, held things together well and his Sunday score of 67 was very nearly enough.

He has shot an identical score of 67 each day this week and his putting has improved each round, I expect his all round game to fall into place this afternoon and he will have enormous support from the massive Labour day crowd. Boston has a huge Irish population and many of them will find their way out to the course today. This is Padraig's time of year, all his big wins have come after mid summer and he will go close today.

6 points Harrington 4.50 general quote ..... little bigger on the exchanges.

Good luck.

Saturday, September 05, 2009

BEES SET TO STORM THE VALLEY .........


DIVISION 1 CHARLTON ATHLETIC - BRENTFORD

OK, win or lose there is a little value in the Bees here at some very big odds. Hosts are 100% so far with five wins from five starts and have been able to name an unchanged line up in each match, they might have to reshuffle slightly today, but Phil Parkinson has a talented mix of young and old players at his disposal and they will not be far away come the end of the season. However, I see no reason why they should be circa 1.55 to beat the unbeaten visitors, who have lost just twice in 23 league starts.

Brentford have pace in abundance and they will certainly be targeting the 35yo Christian Dailly in the centre of the home defence as someone they can get at and behind. I have discussed the Bees recently (see earlier post) and they are a club on the rise, they are looking forward to the match today and the opportunity to play before a big crowd and a large television audience.

I am not getting overly involved, at these odds there is no need to, but would just like to finish with a word, or two, about the team news on the BBC site, which I have discussed before. Please do not treat their previews as gospel, there are plenty of errors and it is often written in a misleading way.

For example, today they write that Brentford will be without strikers Ben Strevens and Charlie MacDonald, this is true, but neither has played this season and MacDonald has not started a match since March ! Also, it is widely reported elsewhere that James Wilson is not available today, having been in the Wales U21 squad for last night's game agianst Italy. This would have left the Bees with an inexperienced pairing in central defence today, but Wilson was not named on the bench for his country and the club had him driven back to London last night and he will play today.

2.5 points Brentford to win 5.50 + .......... up to 6.65 is available.

Back later.

SATURDAY .............

Southend and Hartlepool both ran out easy winners last night, which set us up very nicely for the weekend.

I have looked at three English games on the email service today, which included a small bet at a huge price and one very strong selection. In addition, three World Cup games were also previewed, again with one very strong bet. So, plenty to choose from and I be posting something on the blog later today, so please check back.

Good Luck.

Friday, September 04, 2009

SUBSCRIPTION FULL ...........

I am not accepting any further subscribers to the email service at present, as we have reached our maximum numbers. This might well change in the future, possibly from October, when a few more spots could be released. If that is the case, I will keep you informed.

So for now, you can read the blog safe in the knowledge that there will be no sales pitch.

Good Luck.

TILSON LOOKING FOR MORE HELP FROM MATCH OFFICIALS........

DIVISION 1

SOUTHEND UNITED - LEYTON ORIENT

United have not won a League 1 game yet this season, but I rate them quite highly and with three of their next four starts coming at Roots Hall, they have a great opportunity to begin their march up the table. United opened with four draws, before losing at Swindon last week, boss Steve Tilson was fuming afterwards, believing that his team was robbed and he received something unusual in midweek, an apology from the match referee. Mick Russell admitted that he should not have sent off a Southend player, or allowed Swindon's second goal and missed a clear penalty shout for United, bit of a nightmare for him, but all credit for accepting responsibility.

United have eyes firmly on a promotion push this season, despite their current position and showed great ambition this week, when refusing a big money offer for Alan McCormack, before the transfer window closed.

Orient claimed to be tired last weekend in the 2-2 home draw with Carlisle, they were coming off an extra time game in midweek and will have benefitted from a six day break without a game, but the squad is very small and this is going to hold them back this season. The O's have dominated this "local" derby series in recent years, until United broke their duck last season taking four points from the two league games, including a 3-0 win in Essex. They will be keen to maintain those local bragging rights after taking "stick" for so long and I expect a home win, from a side eager to right last week's wrongs .

6.5 points Southend United -1/4 ball 1.95 + asian line.

Good Luck.

FRIDAY FOOTBALL .....

DIVISION 1

OLDHAM ATHLETIC- HARTLEPOOL UNITED

Goals have been very hard for these two to come by this season, with just seven between them in ten league starts. Pool can claim only two of those, but have been miserly defensively on the road, where they have claimed four points from extremely tough visits to MK Dons and Gillingham, in addition to a fine 1-0 win at Championship side Coventry in the League Cup. They took EPL side Burnley to extra time in the next round of that competition, before putting in their only really poor performance of the season in a timid home loss to Norwich last weekend, when tiredness might well have played a part.

There will be the odd poor display, with 11 new signings at the club over the summer, it might take time for the side to fully gel, but hopefully that was a blip and they are very eager to get it out of their system and might have the ideal opportunity at Oldham on friday night. It is not like they have not been creating chances in the league, with a tidy 49 attempts on goal, four of which hit the woodwork, something that only Leeds have done more times, so a little more luck would have gone a long way.

The hosts have an extensive injury list, with 15 players (!) unavailable for their visit to Brentford last weekend. They did hold the Bees to a draw, but created little and allowed the out of sorts home side 18 attempts on goal. Oldham are really struggling on home soil, where they have not won in ten starts and they can hardly be looking forward to facing Pools latest signing, Icelandic international striker Armann Bjornsson. The massive "man mountain"former Brann frontman will get stuck in and pose a real threat to the Oldham backline who struggled with high balls into the box against the Bees, something that will not have gone unnoticed by tonight's visitors. Away win.

6 points Hartlepool +1/2 ball 1.85 + asian line.

Good Luck.

Tuesday, September 01, 2009

TUESDAY ........... previews originally written at 09.00


ENGLAND

JOHNSTONE'S PAINT TROPHY

BURTON ALBION - CHESTERFIELD

Newly promoted Burton have come to terms with life at this level and surprised a lot of people recently, with their attacking intent under new boss Paul Pescisolido, scoring 10 goals in their last four starts. He will be keen to keep the momentum up and is set to name an unchanged squad for tonight's game and will be looking to progress.

Visiting boss John Sheridan will rotate his squad as much as the rules of the competition allow and having firmly targeted a big promotion push this season, would be delighted to see the back of this competition, although he publicly has to say differently.

Sheridan has no history of taking this competition seriously and in the one game where he named a strong starting eleven, when in charge at Oldham last year, almost lost his top striker and best player to a serious injury. I doubt he will go down that route again, especially with the Spirites very dependent on one or two key players.

6 points Burton level ball 2.0 asian line.

NORWICH CITY- BRENTFORD

I have to oppose my beloved Bees here. It is several years since they took the JP Trophy seriously and at present the club can ill afford to pick up any further injuries. Brentford have now become quite an ambitious club, their immediate future is secure for the next five years and they received a not unexpected windfall this week, getting a 15% cut of the Michael Turner transfer to Sunderland, which regardless of what figure you believe, is big money at this level. They will be looking at consolidating their upper mid table position in the league and pushing on in the second half of the season and a run at the playoffs is not out of the question. I know that all involved at the club are pleasantly surprised at how well, the injury hit Bees, who have a number of top players out, match up with the teams they have faced so far and they do not really need the distraction of the "minor" cup's, a policy which served them well last year.

As discussed recently, the two clubs met recently at Griffin Park and whilst the Bees won (of course), Norwich deserved at least a share of the spoils and with the momentum built up under new boss Paul Lambert and infront of their own fans, they will be looking for a little revenge. Lambert was watching that day, although he had not officially taken charge and being quite astute tactically, I am sure he will have seen plenty to work on, sometimes it is easier from the stands to get an overview of the match. Both teams are sure to rotate, but Lambert has far more options at his disposal and I expect his side to win what could be an entertaining encounter.

Oh, btw, Bees have a big televised game with London rivals Charlton on Saturday , this will of course take priority and none of the players will want to miss out. Little inexperience in the centre of the visiting defence tonight and the Canaries will be out to exploit it.

6.5 Norwich -1/2 ball 1.86 ..... a little higher in places.

Good Luck.

Saturday, August 29, 2009

SPOTLAND IS HAPPY HUNTING GROUND FOR SHAKERS .................


DIVISION 2

ROCHDALE- BURY

This is a "big" Lancashire derby, which is always keenly fought, in front of two passionate sets of supporters. Bury have had much the better of the series in recent years and are unbeaten in eleven visits to Spotland. I see little changing this time round and again expect the visitors to leave with local bragging rights.

Both teams narrowly missed out on promotion last season and are taking a while to hit their stride . Dale look a little off the pace and goals are proving a problem after the sale of top scorer Adam Le Fondre, I am sure that they will come good, but Keith Hill might need a little longer to rally his troops.It was a similar story last campaign, when it took six games for them to awaken from their slumber, after losing out in the playoff final the previous season.

Bury have yet to win at home, but are creating chances and have won both road starts and for now, seem happier away from Gigg Lane. They have done well to keep strikers Andrew Morrell and Andy Bishop at the club, although we still have three more days of the transfer window to get through, or endure, if you are a coach of a smaller club, with limited resources and for the first time in ages, both are fit to start if chosen. Away win, in a division where only 40.21% of games have been won by home teams over the last two seasons.

6 points Bury +1/4 ball 1.85 asian line.

Good Luck.

"THE GUV'NOR" RETURNS ................

DIVISION 1

EXETER CITY - MK DONS

Things could have gone badly awry for Dons in the summer, when they lost yet another coach, but they acted quickly and brought a hungry Paul Ince back to the club and the changeover has been fairly seemless. Ince had a lot of success in his previous reign, he knows what makes the club tick and after his Blackburn debacle, not all of which was his fault, he is keen to re-establish himself.

Dons seem sure to be involved in the playoff picture and considering they have a number of key players injured, their start to the season has been very impressive and they remain unbeaten. Several of these long term injured are back in training and all will return in the next couple of weeks. September will be a big month, with division title favourites Leeds and free scoring Huddersfield coming to town, by which time we will have a clear idea of their promotion credentials.

We discussed their road form last season on several occasions and it bears repeating, over the last two seasons and a bit (two games), they are 33-9-6 in 48 starts, which means they have avoided deteat in 87.5% of those games, winning an incredible 69%.They have the ideal system for playing away from home and have perfected the art.

Exeter have made a pleasing enough start to life in Division 1, but I cannot get away from the idea that two consecutive promotions will catch up with them this season and remember, just 15 months ago they were still a non league side, competing in the BSP playoffs. Goals, both through pre season and league and cup starts to date have been scarce and it is fairly easy to see why, they simply are not creating enough chances. No side at this level have had fewer attempts on goal and their opponents today are averaging an incredible six chances per game more, with Dons also very difficult to break down, especially when they take the lead, City should be in for a very tough afternoon. Away win.

6 points MK Dons -1/4 ball 2.04 asian line.

Back later.

Friday, August 28, 2009

FRIDAY .........

GERMANY BUNDESLIGA

BORUSSIA MOENCHENGLADBACH- FC MAINZ

Mainz were expected to struggle this season, especially when they lost a number of players, including a couple of key summer signings, to injury during the off season. However, results wise they could hardly have started better, given both those circumstances and the difficulty of opponent, they remain unbeaten after starts against Bayern, Hannover and Leverkusen. They have scored and conceded in all of those and a closer look at the stats will tell us that they have really rode their luck, being outshot and struggling for possession in each outing.

BMG have made a promising start to their campaign under new coach Michael Frontzeck and maybe results have not quite reflected that yet. They have been involved in three very open games, which have averaged 4.0 goals per start and there have been many goal scoring chances, with BMG allowing their opponent 20 + attempts in each and creating almost as many theirselves. I rate them the superior team and expect the home side to win today, they have an experienced midfield and in Raul Bobadilla, they have signed a young Argentine striker of great potential, who managed 44 goals in 78 appearances for FC Zurich. He has not found the net yet, but has been playing well and the goals are sure to come soon.

Going to take two bets here, in a match where I find it impossible not to see goals.

5 points BMG -3/4 ball 2.38 + asian line

5.5 points "over" 2.75 goals 2.07+ asian line.

Good Luck.

Thursday, August 27, 2009

EUROPA LEAGUE ............

EUROPA LEAGUE (written 09.00 Thursday)

ZENIT ST PETERSBURG- NACIONAL

Many of the star names at Zenit have moved on and the end of an era was clearly defined when Dick Advocaat, who was set to leave at the end of the season in any case, was fired. League performances have picked up since then, although they did lose the first leg 4-3 in Madeira, when they were without several key defenders, all of whom are now available to play some part.

The squad is still a talented group of players, capable of mixing it with the best in Europe on a going day and I fully expect them to turn this tie around, a win of almost any sort will see them progress, but the visitors, who have limited european experience will have to come out of their shell, if and when they fall behind and I am confident that a second or third goal will then follow. Nacional appear to have regressed a little from last season, especially with the loss of last season's Superliga top goalscorer Nene, who has joined Cagliari and they will hardly be at their best after a 5,000 km trip to St Petersburg.

6 points Zenit -1.25 goals 1.99 asian line.

ASTON VILLA - RAPID VIENNA

Villa kick started their season with a fine win at Anfield on Monday night and they took their chances well, although it has to be said that Liverpool were very poor. That has really given the midlands club a massive boost and they are determined to keep the momentum and confidence levels up, by turning this tie around. They fell behind to a very early goal in Vienna, which they were never able to claim back, despite creating a lot of decent chances. There is a clear difference in class and although MON would probably prefer to concentrate on the league this season, I am sure that the last thing he , or his side need right now, is another poor home showing, following the Wigan debacle. I expect a two goal plus win on the bigger Villa Park pitch, but feel the HT/FT option offers a little more value, John Carew looks set to return to give them more and different offensive options and they will want to put this to bed asap and then focus on the Fulham game on Sunday.

6 points Villa-Villa HT/FT double result 1.83 general quote.

Good Luck.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

GOALS ON THE CARDS AGAIN ...............

PETERBOROUGH UNITED- IPSWICH TOWN

These two sides look defensively fragile at present and it is virtually impossible to see either keeping a clean sheet. Boro were dreadful at the back in their loss at Preston over the weekend and little better conceding three at home to WBA in one half of football a week ago.

Ipswich were guilty of shambolic defending in two games last week, they "only" conceded five goals, but it could easily and perhaps should have been nine or ten !

I suspect that both will be looking for a win to kick start their season's and to gain some momentum going into the weekend and I am certain that we will see goals and am surprised to see quotes of evens +.

6.5 points "over" 2.5 goals 2.01 asian line.

Good Luck.

OWLS LOOKING TO SHOW BLADES HOW TO SEE OFF MINNOWS...............

PORT VALE - SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY

Wednesday remain a very big club, they are improving year upon year and in the next season or two, seem sure to mount a major promotion push to the EPL. They are unlikely to be involved in the relegation dogfight this season and can afford to take this competition seriously. Francis Jeffers will replace the cup-tied Luke Varney upfront and Brian Laws seem likely to rotate his squad a little, but he will want to build on the momentum gained from an easy 4-0 win over Scunthorpe on saturday, comes looking for the win and selects from what is virtually a fully fit squad.

Vale are a club in a mess both on and off the pitch and have really struggled on home soil in recent seasons, winning just 12 from 48 starts in the league, which is exactly 25% and that is playing teams from their own level, now they meet one from two divisions above and that is what I consider the difference between these two clubs, at least two full divisions.

The home side did cause an upset in the last round, winning at Wednesday's big cross town rivals, that would have caused great amusement in the blue half of Sheffield, but Vale really rode their luck. They were outplayed by the United "b" team, yet their goal led a charmed life and a goalkeeping error finally proved decisive.

Therefore, a win tonight for the Owls will also provide additional bragging rights over United, which cannot be underestimated in this football mad city and I take them to comfortably beat a poor Vale team, who are desperately trying to make some loan signings to strengthen their squad.

Sheffield Wednesday -1/2 ball 1.96 + a little 2.0 around.

Good Luck.

Monday, August 24, 2009

EPL ...........

LIVERPOOL-ASTON VILLA (written sunday a.m)

Much like Manchester United's "owning" of Wigan, Liverpool have totally dominated this series in recent years and have not lost in 15 meetings between the two clubs. The home side threw off the lethargy of their performance at Tottenham to put four past Stoke in midweek and are meeting a Villa side who have performed poorly in losses to Wigan, where they were dire and away to Rapid Wien in the Europa League. The real spine of their team has been lost, with Laursen and Barry moving on and I would advise avoid them until Martin O'Neill can address the problem. Luke Young is on compassionate leave following the death of his brother and a number of other key players are sick or carrying knocks, not a lot is going right at Villa Park.

By the time these two kick off, Liverpool could be six points behind some of their major title rivals, so once again, even at this stage of the season, three points will be seen as essential, especially with the distraction of the Champions League coming up shortly. Home win.

6 points Liverpool -1.25 goals 1.95 asian line.

Good Luck.

Saturday, August 22, 2009

CANARIES LOOKING TO GIVE FANS SOMETHING TO SING ABOUT ...........

DIVISION 1

NORWICH CITY- WYCOMBE WANDERERS

Over 25,000 supporters arrived at Carrow Road to witness Norwich destroy tiny Colchester on the opening day of the season, unfortunately they were four down inside 23 minutes and eventually lost 7-1!

That cost boss Bryan Gunn his job just two games into the season and City turned to Colchester chief Paul Lambert as his replacement. Lambert is far more tactically astute than Gunn and should be able to make the most, of what remains a decent squad at this level. He will be desperate to start with a win and faces an opponent he knows well, having been in charge at Wycombe for two seasons. Wanderers are having defensive problems of their own and following promotion, have yet to keep a clean sheet, conceding eight in just four starts.

Lambert watched his team at Brentford in midweek, before officially taking charge and the Canaries pretty much controlled the first half and were unlucky to lose by the odd goal in three, probably deserving at least a share of the spoils. He will have seen plenty to give him hope and there is no reason why City cannot get into the playoff picture. Home win.

5.5 points Norwich City -3/4 ball 2.02 asian line.

Good Luck.

THE HIGHS AND LOWS OF A FOOTBALL SUPPORTER ....


Things can change very quickly in football, just three short years ago I wrote an extended and depressing post about my beloved Brentford, the club that has taken up far too much of my life and caused me untold heartache over the years. That article can be viewed here, Brentford were indeed relegated that season and the following season, struggled in the fourth tier of English football.

Of course, even as a Bees fan, there has been the odd high point over the decades, reaching the FA Cup last eight in 1988-89 with a great footballing side and travelling to Ewood Park and Anfield, playoff visits to Wembley and Cardiff, the odd promotion, highlight of which was winning the old third division in 91-92 and going up to what is now the Championship. The last week of that season was unbelievable, beating big local rivals Fulham 4-0 and then winning the title at Peterborough on the last day, those are two days that will stay with me forever.

That was followed by the only season I have watched them play in anything other than the bottom two divisions and what are my abiding memories of that camapign ? The eight minutes of injury time played at home to Notts County, where the referee appeared to wait for a County equaliser before blowing his whistle, those lost points would have saved us and a totally inept display on the last day of the season at Bristol City in front of thousands of travelling Bees. That pretty sums up being a fan of a lower league club, you take and make the most of any highlights along the way, because you know full well you will be paying for them later !

Anyway, things are definitely on the up in that most hallowed corner of TW8, Brentford were promoted last season and off the pitch the club is being well run, there is a degree of transparency in what is happening and next week, the supporters group currently running the club, will vote overwhelmingly in favour of "eventually" handing over control of the Bees to Matthew Benham. Benham is a long time supporter, who made his money in banking and then sports betting ( he is one of us !) and unlike the majority of other owners, actually has an understanding of the game. I expect it to be a good deal for the club, it will at the very least secure the immediate (5 years) future of Brentford FC and in these troubled times, when so many clubs are struggling, that is about as good as it gets at this level. There are still plans to move to a new stadium at some stage, but this is very unlikely until there is an upturn in the housing market, with the Bees current home Griffin Park ( The Theatre of Sleepless Nights) standing on desirable building land.

Having just a little money available makes so much difference in the lower leagues, Brentford are never going to make any big money signings, but boss Andy Scott and his team have an eye for young talent and he has been very astute in the loan market. When any player has been injured, Scott has had funds to act very quickly and get some cover in (witness Alan Bennett injured on Tuesday, James Wilson signed on Wednesday), he has built a very pacey, close knit team, with a tremendous spirit and never say die attitude, who have collected a lot of points late in games.

Division 1 looks very tough this season, but I would not write off a playoff push for the Bees, they have a couple of key players injured at present, but set to return soon and then the squad will look strong. The players are confident and have made an unbeaten start to life at the higher level and also outplayed established Championship side Bristol City in the League Cup (although they eventually lost), Supporters are firmly behind the club and what they are trying to do, attendances are on the up and some 2,500 + are going to Southampton today to follow their team, if they can come back with a point or better, that would be a very solid start to the season and give them a platform to build upon. They are on offer at circa 3.75 to win this afternoon and whilst I am not putting that up as a bet, I certainly would not discourage you from chancing a little. Up the Bees !

Good Luck.

Friday, August 21, 2009

LIGUE 2 ................

AJACCIO- STRASBOURG

One point was very important to both Ajaccio and Strasbourg last season, it was the margin by which the home side avoided relegation and the visitors missed out on promotion. It is also key in h2h meetings between these two here, as the last six games have ended all square. I think a seventh stalemate makes perfect sense, Ajaccio look likely to struggle again, mainly because their home form is so bad, with just six wins in 20 league starts and they will be happy for anything they can get this evening.

Strasbourg have started slowly, but did get their first point of the season in midweek and will be desperate not to lose this evening and to get a result to build on. They are definitely a team in transition and in my opinion showed a lack of ambition with their summer "business"failure to get promotion obviously took a lot out of them. Like I say, a share of the spoils is once again on the cards, for two teams who might be in for a long season.

4 points Ajaccio-Strasbourg draw 3.0 + ....... a little 3.11 on the exchanges.

Good Luck.


Thursday, August 20, 2009

SUBSCRIPTION FULL ......

I am not accepting any further subscribers to the email service at present, as we have reached our maximum numbers. This might well change in the future, possibly from October, when a few more spots could be released. If that is the case, I will keep you informed.

So for now, you can read the blog safe in the knowledge that there will be no sales pitch.

Good Luck.

HISTORY REPEATING ...........

SUPERETTAN

GIF SUNDSVALL-MJALLBY

There are many similarities between Superettan this year and two seasons ago, back then IFK raced into a massive lead and then slowly coasted to promotion, with GIF snatching the final automatic spot. This year, Mjallby hold a 12 point lead and even now with 11 rounds to go, they look booked for Allsvenskan, having said that, they have appeared to be tiring recently and riding their luck.

They probably do not fancy this long trip north to play on GIF's artificial surface, especially meeting a team who look strong and who are beginning to crank things up. They are very strong on home soil, just two losses and 16 wins in 23 starts at this level and a point today would take them into the playoff place, a win could see them snatch second, so they will certainly not lack motivation.

Mjallby have a tremendous away record, but they know they do not need to win every game now and the signs are clear that they are struggling to retain their focus and playing levels, I am very keen on GIF off level ball. Incidently they played IFK at a similar stage in 2007 and won 3-0, a result which really launched their promotion push, we might see a repeat this evening.

6.5 points GIF level ball 1.92 asian line.

Good Luck.

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

FOREST LOOKING TO KICK START THEIR SEASON .................


CHAMPIONSHIP
NOTTINGHAM FOREST - WATFORD


Billy Davies is building a side to compete at the business end of the Championship, the results have not come yet, but they are playing well and were incredibly unlucky to lose at home to WBA on saturday. They created chance after chance, but couldn't convert any, they then conceded an own goal, before missing a late penalty.They allowed the visitors virtually nothing and I think they will be too strong for a Watford side that took a bit of a hammering at Sheffield United over the weekend.

The 2-0 scoreline doesn't really tell the full story, United created 16 attempts at goal, enjoyed the bulk of possesion and visiting keeper Scott Loach put in a MOTM performance.

WBA boss Roberto di Matteo described Forest as a very good side and we might just see that for ourselves tonight.Home win.

6 points Nottingham Forest -1/2 ball 1.83 asian line.

Good Luck.

SEAGULLS TO SCUPPER HAT-TRICK BID ...........

DIVISION 1

HUDDERSFIELD TOWN - BRIGHTON

Hosts have made a fantastic start to their season and dominated Southampton at the weekend, when the 3-1 scoreline did not do them justice.However, in this league it is very difficult to win three in a row at home, let alone three in a one week period and I suspect they might not be able to peak again. They certainly might struggle to breakdown the visitors, who kept things very tight in a 0-0 draw at my beloved Brentford over the weekend.

Boss Russell Slade will doubtless retain his five man midfield and look to stifle the game, he faced Town three times last season and did not lose, keeping two clean sheets whilst at his former club Yeovil. Before bringing the relegation threatened Seagulls here late last season and earning a valuable point. I have a strong feeling that they will return home with another share of the spoils tonight.

5 points Brighton +1/2 ball 2.11 asian line.

pre season Brighton news

Good Luck.

Monday, August 17, 2009

MONDAY .............

Y.E Yang out battled Tiger yesterday and asian sponsors must be falling over themselves to get the Korean golfer signed up this morning. He was a very easy winner in the without Woods market and I hope that some of you took advantage of the generous odds on offer, as pinpointed early on Sunday.

It was a fantastic day of sport, highlight was the sensational 100m final at the World Championships, where Usain Bolt broke yet another world record, recording a time of 9.58, he is not content with that and claims that 9.40 is definitely possible. Looking at the ease with which he raced yesterday, few would bet against him.

I have just sent subscribers just one bet for today, so will not be posting it on the blog, but am very likely to have some news to pass on tomorrow, so please check back.

Good Luck.

Sunday, August 16, 2009

YANG MAKING UP FOR LATE START .............


USPGA GOLF
WITHOUT TIGER WOODS

Final major of the year and Tiger leads by two from Harrington and Yang, Stenson and Glover are a further two strokes back, with Els and Kjeldsen another shot behind.

Woods and Padraig went head to head last week on the final day of the WGC Bridgestone event, the Irishman led by three after 54 holes, but a seven shot swing on the final day, saw the best player of all time ease home. Harrington is a very tough competitor and as champion, will not give up his crown without a fight, but he must still bear the mental scars from last week and at short odds in this market, I will look elsewhere.

I am interested in the Korean Yang, who has already won in the US this year, in the Honda Classic, along with a number of international wins, which include the 2006 HSBC Champions tournament, where he saw off Tiger by a couple of shots.He is a very intersting character and did not really take up the game until into his twenties, which is virtually unheard of. Yang has played the last two days as well as anyone, notching seven birdies yesterday and is in terrific form, in his last three outings, he was 8th in the Canadian Open with a closing 68, followed that with 5th in the Buick shooting 67 on Sunday and last week shot 69-66 over the weekend for another big finish in the WGC event. He should go close.

Els is not the player he was, not by a long way, but has played well this week and but for closing with three bogies yesterday, he would be much closer. At least that means that there is little pressure on him today, which he does not seem to relish any more and he has the chance to post a low score whilst others are still on the course. Ernie is pleased with his game and is a proven Round 4 player, being ranked in the top eight on tour in two of the last three seasons, which is impressive considering he has not been at his best in these years. I will chance a little on him for old times sake.

4 points Y.E YANG 6.0 general quote.... 6.50 in places.


1.5 points ERNIE ELS 19.0 general quote.


Good Luck.

SUNDAY MORNING ..............

Very frustrating yesterday, QPR allowed a late equaliser which meant stakes returned on our level ball bet and prevented a 5 from 5 cleansheet for subscribers, who received the two selections given below, plus winners @ 2.20, 2.10 and 1.87.

Still, over 24 points profit is a very good return for the day.

Today, I have previewed the final round of the USPGA golf and also gave three football bets, most of this output will be kept for subcribers, but I will post something on the blog.

Elsewhere, Andrew Murray is in the Montreal Masters final and up to number two in the world, replacing Rafael Nadal. Jessica Ennis is elegantly heading for a gold medal in the Heptathalon at the Athletics World Championships, where the only view of Usain Bolt most competitors will get in tonight's 100m final, will be of his rear disappearing over the horizon.

Good Luck today !

Saturday, August 15, 2009

EVERTON SET FOR ANOTHER SLOW START ....


PREMIER LEAGUE

EVERTON- ARSENAL


I suspect Everton might struggle today, there has been plenty of unrest at the club regarding Joleon Lescott's future and they can ill afford to be without him, be it in mind and/or body with Phil Jagielka already missing from defensive duties, also out are Anichebe, Arteta and Yakuba.

Last season they started very slowly and conceded 18 goals in their opening 8 starts and did not record a win at Goodison until November 1st. They opened with a poor 3-2 loss at home to Blackburn and then conceded three unanswered goals to Portsmouth in their next home match, if they start as sluggish this time round and all the signs are there, it is very hard to see them getting anything from a Gunners side that have looked strong in pre season. Andrey Arshavin is a player I rate very highly and he could dominate the EPL this year, he scored four times on his last trip to Merseyside and is worth a look in the anytime goalscoring market.

Aside from their FA Cup run last season, Everton do not have the best record against the "big 4" and I am firmly with the visitors off level ball.

7 points Arsenal level ball 1.75 asian line.


Good Luck.

R'S TO ENJOY ANOTHER TRIP WEST .........


CHAMPIONSHIP

PLYMOUTH ARGYLE- QPR

Rangers did not turn out to be the massive spenders expected last season, but have built a very strong looking squad. They were disappointed to only draw 1-1 at home to Blackpool last week but totally dominated the game and should have won with ease, after creating 21 goalscoring chances and hitting the woodwork four times , the fact that players like Rowan Vine, Akos Buzsaky and Patrick Agyemang started on the bench tells you all you need to know about the quality available to visiting boss Jim Magilton. They put five past Exeter in the cup in midweek and the goals should continue to flow against an Argyle side who look short of two or three players , have won just 5 times in 25 starts, conceded more home goals than any team apart from basement Charlton last season and created fewer goal attempts on target than anyone.

They have struggled so far, with an undeserved point at Crystal Palace and a loss at newly promoted Division One side Gillingham on Tuesday, in a game where the lower league side dominated.

The classy pair Heidar Helguson and Adel Taarabt also return from International duty to further boost the visitors and they should have too much for a limited home side who are without a couple of key players.

6 points QPR level ball 1.97 + asian line.

Good Luck.

Friday, August 14, 2009

UPDATE ....

Very busy weekend ahead, I am looking at previewing 5-7 games for tomorrow alone and will do my best to post one or two here on the blog.

I have an incredible strike rate over recent weeks, with just one half stake loser and 90% + winners in the last fortnight. So it is probably worthwhile checking back.

Good Luck with all your bets today !

FRIDAY .....


NETHERLANDS

EERSTE DIVISIE

OMNIWORLD- VOLENDAM

Visitors were easy winners of this league two seasons ago and are determined to but in a big bid to reclaim their top flight status at the first attempt, they opened with a 1-1 draw at Den Bosch and are looking for all three points at Omniworld who won only eight times last season, ending nine points adrift of the rest of the division.They started this campaign in similar fashion losing 2-0 at Go Ahead and showed very little, especially offensively, they are without three players today and I expect a comfortable away win.

6.5 points Volendam -3/4 ball 1.78 asian line.

Good Luck.

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

TUESDAY .....


READING - BURTON ALBION

Tough looking quote for the hosts, eecially given that they have not won at home in ten starts and have nine players away on international duty. However, this is one of the biggest squads around and they have very able replacements, for example, keeper Ben Hamer who will start tonight, played almost every game in the Brentford Division 2 Championship winning side of last season.Big summer signing Matt Mills will make his debut and everyone else will be looking to earn a regular starting place. The Royals opened with a 0-0 draw at the weekend, but played really well, created plenty of chances and kept possession making almost 500 passes an incredible number. They should have too much for a Burton side fortunate to have got into the Football League last season. They almost blew a huge lead over the closing months , when they did not play well and several teams would have been better suited for league status. They are without new striker Robin Shroot tonight.

5.5 points Reading -1.25 goals 2.04 asian line.

Good Luck.

Saturday, August 08, 2009

SATURDAY......

I like the odds for Derby County, who host newly promoted Peterborough United tomorrow, two consecutive promotions might catch up with the visitors and whilst they have funds available, a lower mid table finish seems on the cards.

The hosts will be without top scorer Rob Hulse, but have plenty of cover and boss Nigel Clough has the club buzzing and I understand the new signings have fitted in well. Clough is trying to play things down, but big things are expected this year, a huge crowd will be in attendance tomorrow and with three of their next four league games on the road, anything less than three points tomorrow, will be a disappointment. Confidence is sky high and Clough has his squad very fit and raring to go.

Leeds United will have no excuses this season and they have to get promotion, Simon Grayson has had plenty of time to get the squad he wants together and they have shown terrific ambition in keeping Jermaine Beckford at the club, when they could have cashed in. They did sell Fabian Delph to Aston Villa, but are pleased with replacement Micky Doyle, whom Grayson has chased for months.Delph has fantastic potential, but an expecrience hand goes a long way at this level and Doyle fits the bill perfectly.

Pre season could hardly have gone better for United and they should have too much fire power for Exeter City, who were a non league side 18 months ago. The visitors will have 2,000 fans in an almost 30,000 crowd, but have a completly new back line and might struggle to contact the United wide players, with both full backs making their debut. Home win.

6 points Derby -1/2 ball 2.11 asian line.

6.5 points Leeds United -1 ball 1.87 asian line.

Good Luck.

Friday, August 07, 2009

FRIDAY UPDATE .....

I have not been posting much on the blog recently, I did give you a couple of winners last weekend and I am in good form since then, with a 100% record for subscribers in the meantime.

I might post a quick preview, with just a line or two about one or two of tomorrow's matches, but the bulk of my early season information, I want to keep solely to subscribers to the email service. From next weekend I will resume normal service, with a (almost ) daily posting on here.

Good Luck.

Saturday, August 01, 2009

SUNDAY .....

IRELAND
SHAMROCK ROVERS -DERRY CITY

Rovers continue on their merry way and are now on a 15 match unbetaen domestic run, they have a terrific chance to close the gap on leaders Bohemians here, as Derry played a Europa Cup tie in Bulgaria just three days ago.

You might have read elsewhere that Rovers have four major doubts , but I am reliably informed that only oneis likely to miss out and that is more than offset by the return from suspension of Sean O'Connor and inclusion of new signing Pat Sullivan. I will take the fresher home side to claim all three points.

5.5 points Shamrock Rovers -1/2 ball 2.0 asian line.

DENMARK
BRONDBY - MIDTJYLLAND

I think that we will see goals in this game, despite the visitors failure to score in three starts. They managed four on their last visit here at the very end of May and this is traditionally a free scoring fixture with the last six meetings all producing three or more goals.Brondby have yet to keep a clean sheet in eight starts in all competitions this season and we discussed in greater depth their defensive woes last week, I see little changing in the short term.

6 points "over" 2.75 goals 2.05 asian line.

Good Luck.