SATURDAY EMAIL NOTES .....

Rangers game has just finished.

SATURDAY MARCH 31st

Sedan missed a penalty at around the hour mark last night, think that probably cost us not just the 10.0 + treble, but also the 70.0 for all three to go over 3.5 , with the other two matches obliging. But the two main selections did win with a degree of comfort. There is another long odds treble at the foot of the email if you want to try again for minimal stakes.

SPL : MOTHERWELL - GLASGOW RANGERS

We saw the old Rangers last week, in what will go down as one of the famous Old Firm victories, that will have given them a huge confidence boost and training is said to have been fanatstic all week at Ibrox, with the players on a high. Carlos Bocanegra will be suspended after being sent off against Celtic , but Steven Whittaker returned in that match, as did Kyle Lafferty who came on as a second half substitute. Sasa Papac, Dorin Goian and Sone Aluko also returned recently and the squad now bears some resemblance to the one that was leading the SPL early season. Eight of the players that beat Motherwell 3-0 at Ibrox in the New Year game are likely to start today , with two others on the bench, they could hardly arrive in better heart considering the events of the last few months and are very much Motherwell's bogey side. Rangers won both games 3-0 this season and have won on their last three visits to Fir Park, scoring twelve goals in the process. Home and away Rangers have scored 6-3-4-6-3-3-5-4 in the last eight h2h meetings, now they are priced at 5.0 + to do likewise today, just seven days after they did the same against Celtic.... seems wrong, given the strength of the starting eleven today, two bets ...1.25 units Rangers to win 2.25 +...... Rangers to score over 2.5 goals 5.0 + .... 5.50 in places.

EPL : WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS- BOLTON WANDERERS

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CHAMPIONSHIP : PORTSMOUTH - BURNLEY

Michael Appleton has got Pompey up and running just in time and it might still not be too late to save them from relegation, there was much to like about their 4-1 defeat of Birmingham City and follow up 2-0 win over Hull City in their last two starts at Fratton Park, both of those two are still hoping to play top flight football next season. Appleton was purring after the Hull game and said "I was delighted. It was total dominance from minute one to 95. It was the best performance since I have been in charge by an absolute mile."
They have to continue winning at home and a visit from Burnley should not strike fear into the hosts at persent, we talked last week about how the Clarets have lost their way and if they allow Pompey half as many chances as they gave the Hammers, then there can be only one winner. The visitors are without a win in seven and in five on the road. Portsmouth would only be seven points behind Burnley without their points deduction and their home record of 9-5-5 is better than many top half teams , including Leeds United and Hull City. The visitors might once again be without Jay Rodriguez, he is very important, not just top goalscorer, but also having had most attempts on goal (110). Portsmouth -0.5 ball 2.30 +

LEAGUE 1 : MK DONS - BRENTFORD

Bees are coming off two wins, a 2-0 defeat of Rochdale and a 3-1 win at Preston in midweek, before we get too carried away, many Brentford supporters felt that Dale were the worst team that had visited Griffin Park this season and PNE are in a bit of a mess at the moment. There is going to be a big clearout at Deepdale in the off season, many of the senior players have not bought into the Graham Westley philosophy and I understand there was something of a player revolt at the club recently, with 8-9 players "refusing" the extra training. Big clampdown from GW of course and he was supported by the board, but he now knows he needs his own men in during the summer and they are not a team you could back at present. Bees were all over them and could easily have scored five in the first half ( they got two), having missed 4-5 absolutely clear chances. This probably says as much about PNE as it does the Bees, but they can do no more than win and they did it well. They changed formation slightly and really enjoyed the big open spaces of Deepdale and will have similar surrounings today at Stadium MK, where the playing surface is huge, as you all know now, because I mention it at least once per month !

Bees took experinced striker Clinton Morrison on loan ahead of the Rochdale game, he has not had much game time yet, but his arrival appears to have revitalised Clayton Donaldson who has scored three in the last week and really ought to have doubled that number, seriously, he must have been played in clear on goal six times in midweek. Anyway, the three scored will have been a huge boost for him, he was League 2 top scorer with 28 goals last season , but has only managed eight this campaign. However, he is essential to the way Brentford play and has started almost every match, making a very big all round contribution, but in front of goal, his touch has deserted him, you know how these strikers are, they thrive on confidence and today he will be desperate to shoot, whereas two weeks ago, he was probably dreading it.

Bees have a very good record here having not lost in six away starts with Dons, four on this ground, including a win here in the JPT earlier in the season. They might also have a mental edge from the reverse league fixture which ended 3-3, Dons were three up very early and at the break, but Brentford came out firing and pulled a point out of the fire. Dons should be up for this, having lost at home to Carlisle United in midweek, but that effectively ended their dreams of an automatic promotion place and with a playoff spot looking secure, it might take another game or so for them to get over the disappointment. Brentford draw no bet 3.40 + general quote .... 3.50 on offer, if you can find anything close to these quotes, you might also want to try something very small on either Clayton Donaldson to score 3.50 general quote, or Clayton Donaldson to score twice 20.0 Paddy Power/ 17.0 Bet 365

LEAGUE 1 : AFC BOURNEMOUTH - YEOVIL TOWN

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SERIE A : CATANIA - MILAN

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Good Luck.

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

TODAY'S EDITED NOTES ...... CARO TO STRETCH MASHA

THURSDAY MARCH 29th

EUROPA LEAGUE

We are on Valencia outright ( see below) and have to be pleased with their quarter final draw against AZ Alkmaar, especially as they have already seen off another dutch side, PSV, with minimal trouble in the last round. Valencia arrive here on the back of two disappointing results, but aside from a ten minute spell just after they took the lead at Getafe, they played pretty well in that and arrived in Holland in good mood and claim to be treating the match as though it were a final. Hosts are top of Eredivisie, by a single point and have a tough trip to Vitesse at the weekend and are also coming into this game following three disappointing home starts, scoring just once in two league games ( NAC and RKC) and losing to Heracles in the cup, all of whom are in the bottom eight and they have to re-jig the defence tonight with Nick Viergever suspended, Valencia also lose Adil Rami, but Robert Soldado who missed out in the last round, plus the returning Tino Costa and David Albelda should all play. I expect the visitors to progress over the two legs and they need a positive result to get back on track, but the level ball quotes look about right and with the outright bet, there is no need for further involvement.

We spoke about the Iberian Peninsula/ Eastern bloc dominance of this event in recent years in that outright preview and only AZ and the two German clubs stand between them once again providing all four semi finalists.

The Schalke 04- Athletic Bilbao match up is interesting, I am .....

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Atletico Madrid are another team like Valencia and Bilbao who have lost their way a little recently, especially on the road, they never looked like winning at Zaragoza on Sunday in the morning kick off, but ......

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SONY ERICSSON OPEN
CAROLINE WOZNIACKI - MARIA SHARAPOVA

Like a lot of people, I was not terribly complementary about Caroline Wozniacki when ranked world number one, but on reflection, probably feel that we were all too hard on her and at the end of the day, she is clearly a top 8 player at least and possibly still improving. She is coming off a big win, her first, over Serena Williams and that has given her a huge confidence boost, despite Williams hitting a lot of errors and claiming she was only at 20%, which is very ungracious and unfair, the Danish player upped her game and served really well and when Williams came on strong at the business end of the match, Wozniacki held firm.

After 67 weeks as the media darling and Wozniacki likes/loves the limelight, she has been relegated to the “small interview room” instead of the mini-theatre equipped with TV cameras and transcribers after her previous matches and this seems to have motivated her almost as much as losing her number one ranking. She kept Williams moving with great depth and width on her returns and similar quality will give her a big chance against Sharapova, who, despite moving a little better nowadays, still turns about as fast as an oil tanker.

Lots of players have complained about tiredness this week, coming here straight from Indian Wells and Sharapova went deep there. The Russian superstar saw off Li Na in double quick time in her quarter final, but the chinese player was terribly off her game and Sharapova had previously struggled past Peer, Makarova and even Sloane Stephens here all of which ran close to two hours. MS has been struggling with her second serve and if she gives Wozniacki half as many chances, she will be able to spend the rest of the week planning her upcoming wedding ! The Danish player for me and a few excerpts from her Williams post match interview below .Caroline Wozniacki to beat Sharapova 2.02 + there is a little 2.10 around.

Q. Was it the match of the year for you?
CAROLINE WOZNIACKI: Um, well, yeah, I think so. I mean, Serena is a great champion and I have very much respect for her. For me to go out and win against her I have lost the three previous times.
I thought I played a very good match out there. I'm very pleased about the way I was able to also close it out.

Q. What made the difference today compared to the three past matches?
CAROLINE WOZNIACKI: I think I served well today. I think my first serve in particular was good. First time I played against her I had match points and lost 7 6 in the third, so I knew that, you know, I had to do something or I had to serve well to close the match out, because she wasn't going to give me anything.
Q. Your backhand also was very strong today. You were stepping in and getting some, you know, winners. Do you think that's an improvement from the past?
CAROLINE WOZNIACKI: No, I think it's always been pretty good. I think in general I'm pleased about the way I played. I didn't make too many unforced errors, and I made her run.
I served well, and, then, you know, when Serena's serve is on fire it's difficult to do something about the first one. I tried to put pressure on her for the second serve.

Q. You have been sort of flying under the radar as of late. Has this been helpful that you're no longer No. 1?
CAROLINE WOZNIACKI: Yeah, I don't mind. I mean, I can see now that the draw I have had has been pretty tough. I mean, I could have met Clijsters but I played Wickmayer, who also played some very good tennis.
And then Serena in the quarters and Maria in the semis. It's not easy, but I'm just pleased. I just take always one match at a time. I just play. Any court is the same.
If people talk about me or not, I mean, to be honest, as long as I win, I'm happy.

Q. You talk about winning giving you more and more confidence and how important that is to you. How much confidence is a straight set win over Serena Williams give you?
CAROLINE WOZNIACKI: Well, it definitely gives you confidence. Hard work always pays off, so, you know, I just keep going, keep working hard, and there's always room for improvements.
I'm just excited I can always improve my game.

Q. For Maria next what do you have to focus on in that game?
CAROLINE WOZNIACKI: To be honest, I'm so happy I have a day off tomorrow. I can actually relax a little bit, practice once, and then enjoy Miami. And, to be honest, I definitely again, she's a strong player, you know. I have been playing well lately and hitting the ball hard.
So I need to make her move. That's the most important thing, I think.

Q. Do you think you're being underestimated right now?
CAROLINE WOZNIACKI: No. I mean, I don't think so. Well, definitely not more than I have in the past. I mean, you know, I think especially media sorry, no offense but, you know, I have just had the just a lot of times, you know, she does make many winners, you know, how can she win when, blah, blah, blah, they always mistakes.
But, you know, I don't mind. I play to win, and that's all.

Q. You moved very well also and you looked very fit.
CAROLINE WOZNIACKI: Thank you.

Q. A lot of players say they're feeling tired. You look so fresh out there and you play like a No. 1. How did you feel?
CAROLINE WOZNIACKI: I feel good. Um, you know, I always work hard. I always do a lot of things to keep my fitness up and to try to prevent injuries.
I think, you know, that pays off. Obviously it's very tough to have two big tournaments one right after another. But at the same time, I'm just excited to be in the semifinals in this big tournament.

SHELL HOUSTON OPEN GOLF

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Good Luck.

FRIDAY FEBRUARY 10TH

EUROPA LEAGUE :

The competition has added spice this year with the involvement of both Manchester clubs and it is hard to know just how motivated each will be. Both are fully committed to the EPL title race of course and it is hard not to see that going down to the wire, in which case, european involvement will be seen as a hindrance.

Also, City have a tough draw facing Porto in the last 32 and then probably Sporting Lisbon, Portugese clubs have a fearsome record in the competition and always take it seriously. The odds for City to win the EL ( circa 5.50) are a joke IMO and a very poor one at that !

United should see off Ajax, who have as many defensive problems as Sir Alex's team and then face the winner of the Lokomotiv Moscow-Athletic Bilbao match. At first glance that looks tough, but the Amsterdam giants are in poor form, more of the Russians later. you know I rate Athletic highly, but they do not have huge recent european experience and are set to battle for that ( sole remaining ?) Champions League spot domestically. Also, United could make big money from the competition, a sold out home game at Old Trafford, even with slightly reduced admission prices, will generate some £3-4 m each round, including concession and merchandising. So by winning the whole thing ,they could bank an extra £25-30m, which is big by anyone's standards. They are at least used to fighting on two fronts, usually more and might even welcome the involvement/distraction and at around 7-1, there are a far better bet than City in my book, but the doubts still remain about them defensively for me.

Last nine runnings of the Europa League/ UEFA Cup have seen six winners from the Iberian Peninsula, four Spanish winners and two Portugese, they also supplied three losing finalists between them, the other three winners came from the eastern bloc, two Russian and one from the Ukraine, with the final in Romania this year, once again they might have an edge.

The eastern bloc teams are at a disadvantage early, coming off their winter break, but once we are in mid/late March, the pendulum swings the other way and they are fresher and at their peak, when others are beginning to tire.

I am interested in teams that can focus on this competition, or are targetting a big run and the one that stands out for me is Valencia, they are clearly the third best team in Spain and look booked for third place baring any major mishaps and have no chance of troubling the top two, this is perfect IMO. They have a five point lead over the pack and host Gijon at the weekend, a match they should just win, they can then choose whether or not to go for it in the trip to the Nou Camp, which falls inbetween their two games with Stoke City. That is how I think they will approach the remainder of their La Liga campaign, picking which matches to focus on and this will enable them to concentrate fully on a european title. I am writing this ahead of their Copa semi final second leg with Barce and kind of hoping they go out, but even if they progress it will only mean one extra game and they do not have to worry about that until the end of May.

So, they face Stoke and then the winner of the PSV- Trabsonspor game, which should be the team from Eindhoven, again, you know that I like them and expect them to win the Eredivisie, but that is far from finished business, is unlikely to be decided anytime soon and it is seven years since a dutch team made the last four of the competition.Valencia are a three time european finalist in the last dozen years and are just about due another, having won the UEFA Cup in 2004. Finances are not the greatest at the Mestalla and I do not think they will turn their noses up at the money to be earned in the Europa League. 1.75 units Valencia outright 13.0 +

Contact : gowi8@btinternet.com

TUESDAY .....

I sent out three match previews this morning and have included one below, notes were very basic on this game, but I have included some earlier thoughts from last month to provide some background information, which hopefully helps.

Manchester United showed limited ambition in the last 15-20 minutes last night and almost paid the price when Fulham were denied a big penalty shout late on. United concede a penalty at Old Trafford about twice every three seasons and the foul usually has to be committed with a machete or shotgun , or the United player actually catch rather than handle the ball for the spot kick to be awarded. To be fair, United do have a very good disciplinary record, receiving just 36 yellow and one red card all season.

Sevilla again ran out comfortable winners last night and at 2-0 up missed several good chances to increase their advantage, before their third goal came as time expired. They are definitely not out of the european picture yet ,with nine rounds still to play. They have home games with Mallorca and Zaragoza and a road trip to Bilbao up next, a visit to hugely talented Athletic is never easy, but by the time they meet, the hosts will have played Schalke ( Europa League QF) twice and Barcelona all inside eight days. So, a real opportunity for Los Rojiblancos to go on a big run.

CONFERENCE : TAMWORTH - GRIMSBY TOWN
We spoke at some length about Town earlier in the season (see below) and especially about how the management team had got them up and running and they were looking at a promotion, FA Trophy double. They lost out in the FAT and that affected their league form especially defensively, but they have acted quickly resigning Andrew Wright on loan from League 1 Scunthorpe United, he was here earlier in the season and played in the 1-1 draw at promotion rivals Luton Town at the weekend. That steadied the ship and now the Mariners have to look for the win.

They are in 9th spot, but could go to within a point of the playoff spots with three points tonight, they will have played more games than the teams around them, but have a good goal difference and still have to host Southport, the team they have the best chance of catching and so, will effectively, have their fate in their own hands if they win this evening.

Tamworth are in 15th place in the Conference, they are 10 points off 13th place and seven clear of 17th, so they have little to play for, they are probably 1.10 to finish between 13th-17th and the likelyhood is that it will be 15th, so any motivation is minimal and certainly far less than the visitors.

Hosts have scored just once in six outings, with four draws, including a recent 0-0 in the reverse fixture. They fielded seven defenders in that game, Town had 18 attempts on goals and hit the woodwork twice, we can expect Tamworth to open up more tonight in front of their own fans and give Town more space to exploit. 1.5 units Grimsby Town -0.5 ball 2.0 + .... there is some 2.05 around.

Good Luck.

THURSDAY FEBRUARY 2ND

Next email will be sent Friday morning at the "normal" time which is circa 10.00 UK.

I have two golf bets for this week and a football bet for the weekend, this is my first two unit football bet of the year, two things about that, one, I obviously like it a lot and as I explained last month, there will not be many of these in future and the difference between a 1.5 unit and 2 unit bet is big, as it ticks ALL the boxes and not just most of them, however, two units is my max bet, so there it is. BUT, it is very far from a sure thing, just one I feel offers very good value, odds are close to even money and my idea of the correct quote is nearer to 1.55, but 1.55 shots do lose every day of the week.

FA TROPHY : SATURDAY, BATH CITY - GRIMSBY TOWN

City had shown signs of recovery before losing their last three matches with an 11-0 goals difference, one of those came 6-0 at Grimsby in the league just two weeks ago, that sequence sees them bottom of the Conference, a huge ten points from safety and they face a six pointer with Newport on Tuesday night, in a match where defeat will probably be the end for them. I could say that there will only be focused on that game and if they were 4-5 "only" points adrift, that would probably be the case, but they might feel they have more chance of winning the FAT and getting some glory, than getting out of this relegation hole. However, I doubt it will make too much difference whatever approach they take. Very little has gone their way and they will be without Gethin Jones, Sean Canham and Lewis Hogg, all of whom are suspended today and probably two other key players too in Murray and Burnell, who picked up knocks at the weekend. They like to play 4-3-3 and are happy with that formation, but do not have the options to do so now, so will not only be in poor form and most likely without half a team, but will have to change their style completely too and as one of the few part time teams in the Conference, they have almost no time to work on an alternative system.

If everything is going wrong for City, the reverse is true for the Mariners, who have not lost inside 90 minutes in 20 starts, their only reverse coming after extra time in the FA Cup. They have won 8 from 9 since then, drawing 2-2 at Barrow, who were themselves unbeaten in ten and Town were only denied by an injury time equaliser that day. Not wanting to rest on their laurels they signed Louie Soares from Hayes just before the deadline, the Barbados international has scored 16 goals in 34 starts for a struggling team this season and played 32 games for Southend in League 2 last season. Town further delighted their fans by turning down any approaches for free scoring Liam Hearn, who scored his fourth ( !) hat-trick of the season against Bath last time out. They also collected a huge bonus yesterday, when Ryan Bennett moved from Peterborough United to Norwich, as they have 25% of the profit as a sell on fee, so circa a £625k windfall, massive for a Conference team. It seems that at present everything they touch turns to gold !

Soares will be cup tied for this game, but his signing will keep all the players on their toes and goodness knows how many he and Hearn will score before the end of the season .

Town are a big club at this level, only Luton are bigger and the Mariners have averaged over 500 supproters at every away game, despite only the Lincoln derby game being within a couple of hours driving time. Expect several hundred to make this long trip, they will make up close to half the crowd and despite a playoff place being their main target for the season, that looks well within their grasp now and a Wembley appearance in the Trophy to go along with it would be perfect and they have said from day one that they are up for this competition. Prior too the 6-0 defeat of City last time, they had led 2-0 in three earlier encounters, before being pegged back, so four times led by two in h2h matches, they made no mistake last time and pushed on and with a replay the last thing they want, I expect them to do likewise today and another big win, could easily follow for handicap bettors out there. 2 units Grimsby Town -0.5 ball 1.97 asian line.

Contact : gowi8@btinternet.com

MONDAY NOTES .....

MONDAY MARCH 26th

LA LIGA : GRANADA - SEVILLA

Looking at the league table, it would be easy to make a case for the hosts, who sit just one place ,albeit by six points, outside the drop zone, especially with a visit to Racing, the team immediately below them in the table, their next fixture. However, we discussed Sevilla and their approach and desire to finish as high as possible ahead of their own trip to Santander on Thursday ( see below) , they won that 3-0 and Racing gave the formline a nice boost, with a 1-1 draw at Betis yesterday. The options available to visiting coach Michel were illustrated when he was able to start with players of the quality of Jose Reyes, Frederic Kanoute and Ivan Rakitic on the bench. All three came on for the second half, Medel and Negredo being wrapped up in cotton wool after the second goal scored and the points were secure.

Sevilla are back to their usual level and have the players to be able to score freely against bottom eight teams and against anyone on a going day. Granada are coming off a 5-3 loss at Barcelona last midweek, they had little of the ball in that game, as you might expect, but showed great heart to come back from two down to 2-2 as the game entered the final quarter, however, that was more to do with the hosts switching off than ability by the visitors and Barce were back in front inside five minutes. Having said that, scoring three at the Nou Camp is never easy and will have given them a boost of sorts. These two both play open football and goals are on the cards tonight and the "over" at circa 2.11 + in asia looks on the big side, but with the hosts short on midfield options, Martins is suspended and joins Fran Rico, Jaime Romero and Hassan Yebda on the sidelines, which means that coach Abel Resino has only been able to name three recognised midfielders in the squad, with one selected being a full back and another a forward, I have to stick with the visitors. 1.5 units Sevilla level ball 1.83 asian line .

SEVILLA : Palop, Javi Varas, Coke, Cala, Fazio, Escudé, Luna, Fernando Navarro, Medel, Rakitic, Trochowski, Reyes, Jesús Navas, Kanouté, Babá, Negredo, Manu del Moral and Tom de Mul.

GRANADA: Roberto, Cesar, Nyom, Siqueira, Cortes, Lopez, Pamarot, Mainz, Gomez, Lucena, Mikel Rico, Abel Gomez, Jara, Benitez, Hurtado, Ighalo, Uche, Geijo and Henrique.

EPL MANCHESTER UNITED - FULHAM

Nice bet here at odds of 2.12.....

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Good Luck.

THURSDAY MARCH 22nd

Certainly not the most interesting day today, but we can talk a little about the La Liga fixture between Racing Santander and Sevilla.

Hosts have lost their last three starts and that has left them in the heart of the relegation battle, three points from safety. They desperately need to turn things around quickly, but are missing five potential starters tonight in Marcos Gullon, Tono , Bernardo, Acosta and Francis, the first three named have formed the central spine of the team recently and they are going to struggle to stop the flow of goals against them tonight, having conceded 14 in their last five outings anyway.

Sevilla looked to have got back to winning ways under new coach Michel, after wins over Osasuna and Valencia and a point against resurgent Atletico, who had been on fire going into that match, a sequence which had their supporters dreaming of a potential european spot,but they have lost their last two and now sit in no man's midfield land, although just seven points adrift of Osasuna in sixth, with tonight's game in hand. A win and only a win will do for them and I expect them to come looking for the points, at a venue they have only lost at once in eight visits. They also arrive having had an extra 48 hours rest, with Racing having played at Espanol on Monday night, they led early there but were behind inside 33 minutes and tired badly after playing the last 40 minutes with ten men, they are in poor spirits, drained and short of numbers tonight and it is hard to see them suddenly turning things around.

The visitors are without Emir Spahic at the back, but this is more than offset by the return of Fazio and Coke, who both missed out on the loss to Barcelona last saturday, no shame there of course, fans were less happy with the 1-0 defeat at Gijon, but Los Rojiblancos had a lot of the ball and chances in a very fiery encounter in which home coach Clemente had his troops fired up, following a feud with Michel which has gone on for two decades ! Sevilla also performed ok against Barce and tried to take the game to Messi and co with a very attacking formation, which saw the return of Kanoute and the influential Gary Medel, who had missed out on the Gijon game. They refused to lie down at 0-2, hit the woodwork and caused the visiting defence a lot of problems out wide, through Reyes and Navas, they have made improvement under Michel, especially in midfield, but his position is far from certain and he and the club need a strong finish to the campaign. He dared not risk Negredo on saturday, but he will surely play some part tonight and will fancy his chances against this porous and weakened defence. 1.25 units Sevilla -0.5 ball 2.29 + asian line, six of Racing's last nine losses have come by two or more goals, including their last three and this is an option if you are brave enough, 4.50 is the general quote, the 5.50 on offer with Ladbrokes is way too big, but you will have to be one of chosen few to get on there !

Sevilla : Palop, Javi Varas, Coke, Cala, Fazio, Escudé, Luna, Fernando Navarro, Medel, Campaña, Rakitic, Trochowski, Reyes, Jesús Navas, Kanouté, Babá, Negredo, Manu del Moral and Perotti

Good Luck.

Contact : gowi8@btinternet.com

SUNDAY MORNING BLUES....

Disappointing evening with Roma and Valencia both blowing leads. Los Che dominated for all but ten minutes, during which they conceded three very similar goals, the first two from headers, with one Getafe player covered by four-five defenders both times !

SUNDAY MARCH 25th

Four "official"selections today, one each in Serie A and La Liga and two for the PGA event.

SPL : GLASGOW RANGERS - GLASGOW CELTIC

The visitors can claim the SPL title in the home stadium of their greatest rival today, which after the trials and tribulations suffered by the Gers this season, might be too much to bear for the long suffering home fans and the local police are very worried about this game, which can easily boil over at the best of times.

The hosts have never in their history lost four home games in a row at Ibrox ( they have lost their last three) and that is further incentive for them to put in a massive effort to delay the Celtic celebrations for one more week. Rangers will have more defensive options today and will have Dorin Goian and Carlos Bocanegra back from suspension, but remain very short of offensive options. However, they will lack nothing in effort and might be capable of holding on for a point which they would view as a moral victory. The draw is priced at circa 3.70 and looks the best value in what will be a very tense encounter and a stalemate is a result which might suit all parties including the local constabulary.

MLS : NEW YORK RED BULLS - COLORADO RAPIDS

Just a few words about this match, we discussed Rapids in some detail last week and that preview is reproduced at the foot of the email. They won 2-1 despite being reduced to ten men andthat leaves them a perfect two from two for the season, today they travel back to the East Coast to meet the big spending Red Bulls who are a disappointing nil from two, having lost both opening road games. When I first saw Rapids with the half ball start and 2.04 quote, I got very excited, but that passed somewhat after I looked a little deeper.

Rapids are without two midfielders in Jeff Larentowicz, who was their MVP in 2011 and who has played an incredible 73 straight MLS games and Pablo Mastroeniwho has been suffering headaches all week, that would have been manageable, but Martin Rivero's international clearance ( again, see below) has still not come through and they have had to send back to Colorado for versatile defender Hunter Freeman, who can fill in at a pinch in midfield to cover. They were confident that Rivero would be available and it is a big blow.

Bulls are a strong home side and are 5-3-0 in their season opener in the last eight seasons and are very motivated to kick start their season today and they have a big boost with the addition for the first time this season of vastly experienced midfielder Rafael Marquez and his comeback is key according to Thierry Henry, as they have missed his ability to start attacks from the back and obviously he will fancy his chances in the centre of the park with the visitors so weakened in this area.

Teams in the West have started stronger this season, with only Chivas failing to post a win, in the East, only Sporting KC and Houston have won coming into this third weekend of the new season, but Colorado are short of options, meeting a motivated opponent and have travelled East- West- East in the last 8-9 days after flying home following the match in Philly last week. I am loathe to oppose Colorado after last week, but all the advantages appear with New York ahead of this game.

SERIE A : NOVARA - LECCE

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LA LIGA : ESPANYOL - MALAGA

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PGA GOLF : ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL

LEADERBOARD

-11 WOODS

-10 McDOWELL

-8 ELS

-8 POULTER

-7 HOWELL

-7 WAGNER

-6 NA

-6 WI

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Good Luck.

MLS : PHILADELPHIA UNION - COLORADO RAPIDS ( written 18/03)

Long term readers will know that MLS is a summer staple, we did not get overly involved last year, with a lot of other distractions, but we will definitely be back to covering games on a very regular basis in the coming weeks.

Opening round last week saw five of the eight matches end in home wins, with no draws, that is typical of the first week and similar numbers occured last year on matchday 1, but there have been a year on year decline in the number of home wins in the MLS, down to 43% in 2011, some 4% less than in the two previous seasons and a whopping 7% down on 2008. I expect that trend to continue with teams getting better at finding ways to cope with the demands of coast to coast travel in the US. Having said that, Philly went to Portland and back last week and played on Monday night, which on the back of pre season training is limited recovery time and a tough way to start the season. Colorado were at home on Saturday, so two days extra to recharge batteries and coming into the game will only have clocked up 2,500 KM in the air, less than a third of the air miles the Union have collected. This is Philly's third year in the MLS and in four meetings with the Rapids, they have yet to register a win ( 0-2-2)

It is all change at Colorado under new boss Oscar Pareja and the Rapids were wildly excited after their opening day 2-0 win over Columbus Crew. “The coach is great,” said Conor Casey, who plans to return from an Achilles tear in a month. “He has implemented his philosophy, and I think everyone has really bought into it, trying to play, get the ball on the ground. We made some real good additions. It seems we have adapted to the formation change well. We are all just really excited about the season now.”

Scorer of the first goal Drew Moor said "We all wanted to score an early goal to calm the nerves. He means so much to us. He's come in and made some great changes, and everybody just loves that he's here. To be able to celebrate that first goal with him was pretty special. ... We just wanted to let him know, 'Hey, we're here with you, all the way.' "

Pareja said “I am proud of the coaching staff that has done a tremendous job with this group, preparing them for the starting of the season,” Pareja said. “Kudos to them and obviously to the players. We always will be waiting for more, and demanding more, but what I saw today was great.”

The new Columbian coach has introduced some South American flair into the team and midfielder Jaime Castrillon and LB Luis Zapata were instant hits, especially Castrillon who is so comfortable on the ball and made time and space for his team mates. Pareja also likes to get his full backs heavily involved offensively and Kosuke Kimura who has been at the club for five years, quickly bought into this assisting for both goals. "No one likes to chase me, especially a left wing," Kimura said. "He can't even attack, because he has to defend all the time. My first job is defending. If I defend first, I can go up. I can defend at the same time by attacking." Added Quincy Amarikwa: "Kosuke will always tell you he could be a winger if he wants to be. And he's got an engine; he runs for days."

The players were all buzzing after the game, you can tell that just by the quotes and the whole club has been lifted, not just by the win, but by the entire pre season campaign and build up . They love the new 4-3-3 formation and Pareja wants to see a creative, free-flowing team that is good at maintaining possession and attacking, as an opposing coach (he was with Dallas last year) he thought the Rapids had become predictable and that opponents had learnt how to deal with them. He is still waiting for International clearance for playmaker Martin Rivero, it might come through in time for him to play, but when it finally does and Casey also returns, Rapids are only going to get better and better. The team is going to be built around him and Castrillon, but in the meantime, they still look pretty good !

Union also made a lot of changes in the off season and fielded four newcomers in the opening day 3-1 loss to Portland, all were in key positions LB, two midfielders and their lone striker, they tend to play 4-5-1 and the midfield is going to be further disjointed today with Amobi Okugo and Freddy Adu away on international duty. Not such a buoyant feeling at Philly and they got into a nasty habit of drawing too many home games last season ( 53%), I expect Rapids to boss the midfield and getting a start is a bonus. 1.75 units Colorado Rapids +0.25 ball 2.06 asian line.

ALL KNOWLEDGE IS WORTH HAVING ....

I write some notes every day about all the matches and events that interest me, today's, albeit a censored and edited version is in the post below.

The blog contains a small sample of what I write, maybe ten percent of my output and almost never contains my strongest news, for example, today, I have looked at five matches and my best news is for the three not previewed below.

The first "mystery" game contains some statistical information about a particular attacking strength of one team and their opponents vunerability to this. The second has some vital team news, which is going to hugely weaken an inform team and this is not freely available, or at least was not when I wrote the notes.

Even if I wanted to post these previews on the blog, it would be foolish to do so, as this information will still be relevant for the next round of matches and possibly beyond. Even if these selections do not win today, the content is valuable and that, I believe is the value of my notes, as I try to write them not just with a view to that day's events, but also to the future.

Good Luck.

Contact : gowi8@btinternet.com

SATURDAY NOTES ......

SATURDAY MARCH 24th

Going to start with three strong domestic bets .....

CHAMPIONSHIP :

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LEAGUE 1 : WYCOMBE WANDERERS - MK DONS

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CHAMPIONSHIP: MILLWALL - LEEDS UNITED

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LA LIGA : GETAFE - VALENCIA

I have spoken several times about how we can expect a slightly questionable attitude from Valencia on occasion this season in La Liga, which is why we are firmly behind them in the Europa League. The problem is that they are clearly the third best team in Spain and have no chance to catch the top two, so will pick and choose which games they will be motivated for domestically. For example they were up to thumping a weary Athletic side who dared to threaten their status as next best in Spain by dominating Manchester United in two legs, with most of Europe watching and then lost at home to basement club Zaragoza. Now their lead in third is down to just three points over Levante and a Malaga team coming on strong, another defeat, or dropped points at all, is going to complicate matters for them and I think we will see the real Valencia this evening, especially as they feel agrieved by the midweek loss at the Mestalla. A few players missing on both sides of the pitch, but the visitors are much better able to handle their losses and are helped by the return of Tino Costa following suspension, Getafe have only two available central defenders and one has only made five starts this season, they are further weakened at the back and look very vunerable this evening. Only Real and Barce have posted more road wins than Valencia who won the reverse fixture 3-1 and the match here in Madrid last season 4-2, I expect them to collect the points and then turn their attention to the meeting with AZ Alkmaar on Thursday. 1.5 units Valencia -0.25 ball 2.12 asian line.

SERIE A : MILAN - ROMA

This fixture is dominated by Milan's Champions League quarter final with Barcelona on Wednesday, the home side are beat up and severely short of offensive options, are coming off a tough Copa Italia semi final on Tuesday, which has given them 24 hours less recovery than Roma who played on Monday and surely have to look to give themselves the best possible chance to compete with Barce in midweek.

No Cassanao, Pato, Robinho , Inzaghi or Maxi Lopez, just leaves Ibrahimovic and El Shaarawy up front, Zlatan limped out of the Juve game at the break and coach Massimiliano Allegri has to have him available on Wednesday.

Prince Boateng returns, but he along with Thiago Silva and Ambrosini have had limited training this week, Antonini is suspended and several others named in the squad are carrying knocks.

Roma despite a couple of questionable performances, especially at Atlanta, where without De Rossi there were shambolic at the back, remain in contention for that third place and with three of their next four starts at home, they have a big incentive to come away from the San Siro with a result. They have a good record here, losing just once in six visits and just one of eight in the reverse fixture, so much the better of this series in recent seasons.

We spoke ahead of the Coppa first leg about how Milan had struggled a little against the better teams this season, Roma just about fall into that category at present and this is a great chance for the visitors be beat a vunerable and distracted opponent. Regardless of what happens today, Milan will still be top of Serie A come Sunday evening and they have to look at the bigger picture. 1.25 units Roma +0.75 ball 2.07 asian line.

MILAN: Abbiati, Amelia, Bonera, Mesbah, Mexes, Nesta, Thiago Silva, Zambrotta, Yepes, Ambrosini, Aquilani, Boateng, Carmona (55), Emanuelson, Gattuso, Muntari, Nocerino, Seedorf, Van Bommel, El Shaarawy, Ibrahimovic.

ROMA :BORINI Fabio, CICINHO, CURCI Gianluca, DE ROSSI Daniele,GAGO Fernando,HEINZE Gabriel,KJAER Simon,KRKIC Bojan,LAMELA Erik,MARQUINHO,OSVALDO Pablo Daniel,PERROTTA Simone,PIGLIACELLI Mirko,PJANIC Miralem,ROSI Aleandro,SIMPLICIO Fabio Henrique,STEKELENBURG Maarten,TADDEI Rodrigo,TOTTI Francesco, VALDES J. Angel

Good Luck.

Contact : gowi8@btinternet.com

WEDNESDAY .....

MANCHESTER CITY - CHELSEA

We spoke earlier this season about the wide open nature of matches between the top EPL clubs and that has shown little sign of changing. The sixteen fixtures between top five teams have yet to produce a 0-0 draw and the goal per game split looks a lot like this ....

one goal.... 1

two goals .... 1

three goals ... 4

four goals .... 2

five goals ....2

six goals .... 2

seven goals ... 2

eight goals .... 1

ten goals ...... 1

So, 14 have finished "over", with a massive eight or 50% producing five or more, "over" 4.5 goals is offered at 6.0 + , with up to 6.4 currently available on the exchanges and that looks a nice price in a game where any goal inside the first 30 minutes is likely to blow the match wide open, with both surely looking for maximum points. Only twice has a team failed to score in those 16 starts and Tottenham should have had two in their visit to Old Trafford early season, nine of the road teams ( 56.25%) have scored at least two goals and it is this gung-ho attacking policy, especially on the road, which has served up some great domestic entertainment, but cost English clubs very dear in Europe this season. Chelsea are circa 3.5 to score twice, something they did in the reverse fixture and which Tottenham did here recently. The Blues arrive with renewed confidence after four straight wins since AVB left and who knows how Fernando Torres will react now that he has finally broken his duck, albeit "only" against Leicester City. Hosts have toiled through their last three fixtures, losing at Swansea and going out of the Europa League to Sporting, who also scored twice here at the Etihad btw and now trail their cross town rivals by four points at the top of the table. Defensively, they still look vunerable at times, Lescott and Kompany are both doubts tonight and it would be a disaster if both were to miss out again, no John Terry for the visitors, goals on the cards, the basic "over" is OK if you want to go down that route, but I will be a little braver and opt for five or more.

Good Luck.

TUESDAY NOTES ......

TUESDAY MARCH 20TH

EPL : BLACKBURN ROVERS - SUNDERLAND

Surely a fantastic time for Rovers to be facing Martin O'Neill's side, the hosts had a free weekend and were doubtless sat at home watching the Black Cats battle for a draw at Goodison Park at lunchtime on Saturday, Everton were on the front foot for most of the second half and Sunderland expended a lot of energy trying to hang on to what they had. MON is not a man to simply give up on games, but given their secure position in the EPL, the FA Cup replay will surely dominate their thoughts for the next week or so and any "extra" effort this week will probably be saved for their home game at the weekend, when QPR visit the Stadium of Light. Even if this line of thought did not tie in with MON's thinking, he is likely to be short of key options this evening with Sessegnon and Cattermole suspended and a couple of others, including the hugely influential Bardsley having picked up knocks. I do not know how much they have left in their tank, but this will be their 16th start of 2012 and they have what must surely be viewed as two more important games in the next seven days.

Very different situation at Blackburn, they have not played for ten days since a big confidence boosting win at Wolves and this is just their 11th outing of the New Year. Boss Steve Kean has a fully fit squad with the exception of Vincve Grella to pick from and three points this evening would enable them to pull six points clear of the drop zone, ahead of their derby "six pointer" with Bolton Wanderers at the weekend. That is a situation they could only have dreamed of a few weeeks ago and if things go their way in the next couple of days, they could virtually ensure survival by Saturday evening.

Blackburn Rovers: Robinson, Lowe, Dann, Hanley, Martin Olsson, Formica, Pedersen, Nzonzi, Marcus Olsson, Hoilett, Yakubu, Bunn, Givet, Dunn, Modeste, Petrovic, Orr, Rochina, Goodwillie, Vukcevic, Henley.

1.5 units Blackburn Rovers -0.25 ball 2.07 asian line.

LEAGUE 1 : MK DONS- LEYTON ORIENT

Preview for subscribers only.

LEAGUE 2 : ROTHERHAM UNITED - MACCLESFIELD TOWN

Preview for subscribers only.

LEAGUE 2 : GILLINGHAM - CRAWLEY TOWN

Hard not to see goals in this game between two of the top three scorers in League 1. Both have started to make a habit of conceding too freely also and their last ten starts have averaged 3.9 and 3.0 goals respectively, the Gills last three home games have produced plenty of thrills and gnashing of teeth for supporters with scorelines of 3-4, 3-1 and 5-4, Town have scored and conceded at least two goals in each of their last three starts.

The hosts are just outside the playoff places and now have Crewe breathing down their neck, they have to look for three points and it is a similar case for Crawley who are letting a gap start to built between them and the top three, they still have a game or two in hand, but need to refind some consistency and win a couple of games in a row. They had to twice come from behind to see off troubled Port Vale 3-2 at the weeeknd, but did have 30 attempts on goal (20 on target), however, that was their first win in nine and they need to build on that. Striker Gary Alexander who was recently signed from Brentford, has scored three in two starts and with Billy Clarke alongside him,they have a pair of proven lower league strikers and one in Alexander who is eager to impress and who has been scoring freely at a higher level this season.

Gills are coming off a thumping 3-0 win and impressive performance at highflying Cheltenham and are another side who clearly know where the goal is. Both teams are missing defenders and with each having an attack is the best form of defence policy in any case, another shootout is on the cards.1.75 points"Over" 2.75 goals 1.99 asian line.

Good Luck.

CONTACT : gowi8@btinternet.com

SUNDAY .....

SERIE A:

LECCE- PALERMO

Huge , huge game for Lecce, they are six points from safety and now go into a series of three games which could offer a lifeline, today they host Palermo who are 0-4-9 on the road, with a 8-24 goal difference and then play Novara and Cesena the bottom two, results in the next fortnight are going to go a very long way to deciding their fate and they have to start with three points this afternoon. Palermo have not scored in their last two home starts ( Milan and Roma) and conceded four in Siena on their last trip off the island and arrive without Miccoli, Barreto and Pisano all of whom are suspended and big losses. Top scorer David Di Michele returns for Lecce, which is key and they also have increased options with a couple of others returning including Cuadrado and hugely experienced Gennaro Delvecchio. Hosts have to gamble for the win and there should be goals in this, with Lecce having scored six in their last two home starts, Palermo conceding heavily on the road and this fixture having produced six goals in similar circumstances last season. 1.5 points Lecce -0.5 ball 2.05 asian line.

Lecce : 3 Di Matteo Luca, 5 Esposito Andrea, 6 Giandonato Manuel, 7 Cuadrado Juan B, 8 Obodo Cristian, 9 Corvia Daniele, 10 Bojinov Valeri, 11 Seferovic Haris, 13 Miglionico Martin, 17 Di Michele David, 18 Giacomazzi Guillermo, 24 Muriel Luis, 25 Petrachi Davide, 26 Blasi Manuele, 28 Brivio Davide, 30 Oddo Massimo, 40 Tomovic Nenad, 81 Benassi Massimiliano, 82 Delvecchio Gennaro, 91 Bertolacci Andrea.

Good Luck.

UPDATE .....

Shame that having got their noses in front late, that Leeds United couldn't hold on for the win, still, with the level ball option there was no damage done.

The "over" in the Bury-Wycombe Wanderers game was covered inside 13 minutes and the "over" 4.5 goals given a mention at odds of 5.50 also obliged.

My only other official selection today won at odds of 2.19, so, no real complaints on the day so far, but still early days with two more active picks for tonight's action.

For subscribers: I am just about to send the Sunday email, four selections @ 2.05, 2.17, 11.25 and a very strong pick @ 2.06.... please check your inbox asap.

Good Luck.

Contact : gowi8@btinternet.com

"MARCHING ON TOGETHER" ..........

CHAMPIONSHIP : LEEDS UNITED - WEST HAM UNITED

We took Leeds United at home to Southampton recently and somehow, I am still not sure quite how, Saints took all three points in a match totally dominated by United from start to finish, that day I wrote .....

Saints appear at first glance to be over their midseason wobbles and might well be playing top flight football next season, but I am still unconvinced by them on the road against the better teams, where they have shown very limited ambition at times. Nine times they have gone to play what could be termed promotion rivals and on each occasion, have set up too defensively IMO, happy to take a point, which is what they got in five of those games, losing the other four, so, five points from a possible 27. That is hardly form to strike terror into Neil Warnock's men and once again, I am pretty certain that Saints would take a point if it was offered now. This is "officially" Warnock's home debut, although he had already been appointed ahead of the late, late come from behind win over Doncaster Rovers, he oversaw the cleansheet at Portsmouth last week and will now want the win, which would take them right back into the heart of the playoff race.

Warnock is a man motivator and will have his troops fired up today, Leigh Bromby spoke about the boss this week and said "He's changed the mood of the place, he's experienced at this level and hopefully he can work his magic on us."His man-management is fantastic and he's a bit of character who says it how it is. He's a fantastic appointment."The lads respect him for what he's done, he can explode in the changing rooms, but it's all good. He knows how he wants to play and how to set-up."

NW knows several of the visiting team well, having managed them at previous clubs and knows how huge this game is for his team, as three points could get the juggernaut up and running. Lose and they will be faced with a postseason mountain to climb. Knocks for Lallana and Lambert for Saints, it will be a huge loss if either missed out. I just cannot pass on United getting a start in a fixture where I feel the away side would be happy to take a point .

That goal in the 1-0 loss, is the only one United have conceded since Warnock officially took charge, with two cleansheets and four points from visits to Hull City and Middlesbrough since then, two teams competing for at the very least a post season spot.If United have even half the chances they had at home to Southampton today, they will beat the Hammers with a degree of comfort. The visitors will be without Ricardo Vaz Te, Winston Reid, Julien Faubert, Guy Demel and Papa Bouba Diop who all miss out. Big game for the hosts, who need to build on their road results, especially with three of their next four starts coming at Elland Road, if they can find a way past WHU, the Warnock promotion train will have well and truly left the station, suspect Fat Sam would take a point, so Leeds with the draw no bet option, is too good to pass. 1.5 units Leeds United level ball asian line.

I doubt either side will need extra motivation this afternoon, but Warnock probably feels he has unfinished business with the Hammers from his Sheffield United days, this is the first time he has faced the Irons since attempting to sue them over the 2007 Carlos Tevez affair.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ..... FROM TODAY'S NOTES ....

.....talking of Huddersfield Town, they travel to Colchester United today and are proving a fanstastic money maker for "in running" player's brave enough to oppose them. The Terriers have drawn an incredible 13 matches in which they have led, effectively losing 26 points from winning positions, more than twice as many as any other team in the top eight . Those lost points cost Lee Clark his job and replacement Simon Grayson has so far failed to find a solution, losing leads against Rochdale, Stevenage ( two goals) and Bury ( three !) in his five matches in charge.

BURY- WYCOMBE WANDERERS

Two struggling teams meeting at this stage of the season usually means goals and that's what I feel we will see at Gigg Lane this afternoon, with these clubs no slouches in the goals scored and conceded department in any case, with an average of 3.6 and 3.9 respectively in their last ten starts. Bury have not won in ten, are hurtling towards the drop zone and are one of the clubs Wycombe will be looking to drag into the relegation dog fight, that they are already heavily involved in. The visitors have played nine road games since early November and conceded at least two goals in all of them, three of more in five, but have scored more this season than any other side outside the top 8. Bury came back from three down to claim a share of the points in their last home start and will be boosted by the return of striker Shaun Harrad who is prolific at this level,another high scoring thriller looks on the cards.Over 4.5 goals is far from unlikely and offered at 5.50 in a place or two if you are brave enough, this would have won in Bury's last three starts and in four of Wycombe's last six. But for an "official pick" ...1.5 units "over" 2.75 goals 1.87 asian line.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY UPDATE :

Dartford : Wells, Jones, Green, Bonner, Wilkinson, Champion, Noble, Wallis, Erskine, Graham and Harris. Subs: Hayes, Garrod, Bradbrook, Burns and Ibrahim

Farnborough: Bradshaw, Smith, Treacher, Jeffrey, Berquist, Bygrave, Bennett, Moody, Charles, Ciardini, Page. Subs: Orlu, Laidler, Webb, Ferguson, Tokarcyzk

Latest score : 1-0 30 minutes

Update : 1-0 HT

Second Half Update : 2-0 55 mins

75 mins played: still 2-0

3-0 88 mins.

FT 3-0

Good Luck.

SATURDAY .....

CHAMPIONSHIP : PETERBOROUGH UNITED - BLACKPOOL (Written Friday 10.00)

Just one win in twelve outings since Boxing Day for United, that came against a very out of sorts struggling Bristol City side and the goals have dried up for traditionally free scoring Posh, with just six in their other eleven starts in that sequence, which combined with no cleansheets, is a very dangerous combination. They have collected most of their points against teams at the wrong end of the table, beating only one top 6 side they have faced all season ( Cardiff City) and they conceded three in that and could/should have lost that by a couple of goals. They are likely to have Lee Tomlin back this weekend, he returned to training yesterday and that will help them offensively, but their real problems are at the other end of the pitch. They were defensively dire in the 3-0 home loss to Millwall on Tuesday, the visitors could easily have won by five and after the second goal went in, even the home match commentator said that " now Posh have a mountain to climb and do not even have a foot on the first step", which says it all about their current predicament.

Pool are very motivated to bounce back after blowing a halftime lead at Derby County in midweek, they looked composed and confortable at the break, when they should have been a couple up and out of sight. That result leaves them in fifth, but the teams below them have games in hand and if they win those, the Seasiders will be down to eighth and a further two teams will also be within touching distance, so every point is now vital, especially with games against Brighton, Leicester, Reading and Southampton, all direct promotion rivals up next, so this is as "easy" as it is going to get for some time. Pool were ten matches unbeaten before getting distracted by a FA Cup run, they looked to be back on track, before the County game and will definitely not ease up this time if taking the lead. That is not their normal style anyway, they have scored a league high 31 road goals in the Championship and two or more in 10 of their last 14 away starts, three or more in seven of those. Portsmouth and Millwall, neither of whom are known for their free scoring ways, have already scored three at London Road in 2012 and Blackpool are a tempting 4.50 to follow suit. If Pool play as well as they can, or as they did in the opening 45 minutes in midweek and Posh anything close to how they played against the Lions, this will be over as a contest very early . 1.75 units Blackpool -0.25 ball 2.02 asian line.

Good Luck.

IKER, IKER AN NAY ( I bet you five dollars he'll kill you dead) .....

I write much about how my daily notes are worth so much more than the "bottom line", long term, results will take care of themselves, it is the content that is important and I believe almost every daily email contains something of value, some snippet which might help you find a winner in the future.

A few people were surprised about how comprehensively Athletic Bilbao outplayed Manchester United last night, but that would hardly have surprised anyone who read my notes on a regular basis. I have talked about United's defensive problems all season and been "bigging up" Bilbao for almost six months. I have reproduced a couple of those posts below and highlighted some pertinent comments in red. At the time I started writing about them as a top 4 contender, they were languishing in 19th place and were without a league win. Today, everyone knows how good they are !

Ahead of last night's match I wrote in my morning notes .... At times this United side still look very vunerable at the back, they could/should have been a couple down at the break to Tottenham on Sunday and have already conceded three goals here at Old Trafford to Basle and two each to Ajax and Benfica, you all know how highly I rate Athletic and consider them better than that trio and definitely expect them to score this evening. Over 7,000 Bilbao supporters have travelled to Manchester for the game and the atmosphere will be electric, Amorebieta will be suspended, but no other problems for the visitors and I am very excited to see how they match up with United, this is a big opportunity for the hugely talented Iker Muniain and Athletic to introduce themselves on a big stage and I have to take them getting a full goal start and also take a little on the goals flowing, as they often do at both ends with these two. 1.25 units Athletic Bilbao +1 ball 2.14+ asian line and 0.75 unit "over" 3.5 goals 2.90 exchanges.... the 7.50 + for Bilbao to win is way too big too IMO.

Monday October 17th

New coach Marcelo Bielsa is a real one off and it has taken a little time to get his ideas across, but the benefits are starting to show and we can expect Bilbao to come on very strong in the next couple of months. Bielsa is very meticulous, he personally checks pitch measurements before every away game and has been known to give four hour press conferences ! He favours a high pressing game, with the strikers putting a lot of pressure on opposing defenders, whilst at times this looks a fairly rigid formation, he makes a lot of subtle changes during the course of the game, which sometimes give them five forward players. 18 yo Iker Muniain has been outstanding in the last two seasons and he has been very influential in the last two games, setting up a lot of chances for the front three. Far more options for the coach tonight with the return of big summer signing Ander Herrera from injury and Ekiza to the centre of defence after suspension and this is a young, developing team of huge potential. Fernando Llorente who has found his scoring boots recently, missed training twice last week, but is named in the squad and Bielsa has a habit of sometimes training strikers separately from the rest of the group in any case, so you can never be sure with him, I told you he was a one off ! You always get a tough physical challenge from Athletic and the visitors have really struggled here in recent seasons, not scoring in five visits and losing the last four.

Thursday October 27th

Finally ! The late goals have started to come the correct way, which of course, is in our favour ! Levante and Liverpool both found winners inside the final five minutes and kept up our 100% record ( five from five) for the new week, actually the last 34 "official" football selections have produced 25 winners.

One of those was Athletic Bilbao (see below) and I am going to start with their attractive home fixture with Atletico Madrid. They started on fire in the Osasuna game, racing into an early 3-0 lead and coasting home despite the visitors claiming an injury time consolation goal. Bilbao have subsequently continued their recovery with a draw at Mestalla and can move into the top eight with three points this evening. Wildly talented Iker Muniain scored in both matches and looks a player to build a franchise around. Now that coach Marcelo Bielsa has got his team up and running and signing from his hymn sheet, I do not want to rush to oppose Athletic, a top four push is certainly not out of the question, they were sixth last year anyway and it is hard to make a case for Valencia, Sevilla and especially Villarreal being stronger this time round. With a tough November ahead, including a visit from Barcelona and trip to Seville, they should be extra motivated for points tonight and at Gijon over the weekend and this looks a very good time to be playing Atletico, who are another potential rival for a high finish. The capital's second club started the season well enough, but a heavy loss to Barce appears to have knocked their confidence and they have lost their way, they are without a win in six, or a goal from open play in four starts ( they scored against Mallorca from the penalty spot), or of any kind on the road domestically. Star 40m euro striker Radamel Falcao has not been firing and is said to be struggling with gastroenteritis over recent days. Hosts will be without Carlos Gurpegi for several months, but the veteran midfielder has been a fringe player under Bielsa and I do not see this as the loss it would once have been. I have to stick with the hosts Athletic Bilabo -0.25 ball 2.12 asian line.

SUNDAY OCTOBER 30TH

In La Liga , I am going to stick with Athletic Bilbao who make the short trip along the coast to face Sporting Gijon, a venue where they have traditionally done well, being unbeaten on their last four visits. We have discussed them a lot recently and the last two of those previews were included in Thursday's email, which I have reproduced below. Not much point in going over old ground, they saw off Atletico with a very strong second half performance and a win today will keep them within touching distance of fourth place and that is essential, with two very tough matches up next against Barcelona and Sevilla. When everything clicks for this Bilbao side, I feel they are a match for anybody ( the top two aside) in La Liga and certainly should be looking for maximum points at venues like El Molinon. Hosts have found some recent form, but it has come against inferior teams to Athletic, they are a limited team and club, that have already lost three home starts and have done remarkably well to stay in the top flight for three season, especially given that they lost 23 matches in the first and won only nine in the second ! My only concern is the early kick off, especially given that Marcelo Bielsa's team played on Thursday, but I really like them as a team and him as a coach and feel that both will make us a lot of money this season and certainly do not want to dessert them now that they have hit form.

Good Luck.

THURSDAY ......

West Ham United had enough chances to have beaten Watford with a degree of comfort last night, but not for the first time this season, especially on home soil, lacked a cutting edge.

Dundee United had won easily the night before and Bologna on Sunday, when goals and cards also came in the Rome derby as discussed, infact, the first of two red cards were waved inside seven minutes, so, not too long to wait for a payout there.

Hugely interesting day today, I have put up six selections in total at average odds of almost 14-1 ( biggest around 50-1) in my daily email notes, which I also sent to about a dozen of you who have registered for the freebie email (see box to the left of this post). If you have previously registered but didn't get a copy today, don't panic, you can expect one over the weekend. If registering is too much trouble as it takes almost 15 seconds ( !), I will definitely be posting a preview or two on here over the weekend.

Good Luck.

TAKEN FROM MY WEDNESDAY NOTES ......

........be possible to cover for a good profit if we are still all square after 20 minutes or so.

CHAMPIONSHIP : WEST HAM UNITED - WATFORD

The Hornets claim to be coming for the win and that must be good news for the Hammers, with most teams coming to Upton Park looking to shut up shop. I do not think these are hollow words from Sean Dyche, as his side play an open style and the come from behind win over Burnley at the weekend, has left them free of any relegation worries. However, defensively they are in a bit of a mess, having conceded 11 goals in their last four starts, two big thumpings by Crystal Palace ( who rarely hammer anyone) and Southampton on home soil, they were sandwiched inbetween the win over the Clarets and one over Leicester City, both by the odd goal in five and both, probably games they should have lost. That might say something about their fighting spirit, but just as much about their defensive frailities.

The Hammers will go top with a win, but more importantly give them a four point advantage over rampant Reading, who are closing in fast on a top two place. United had a fine 2-0 win at Cardidff City on Sunday, the opening goal was scored by the returning Kevin Nolan an absolutely key player for them and Fat Sam will also be able to call upon another trio of returning players in Matt Taylor, Julien Faubert and Winston Reid tonight and a squad that was looking threadbare a month ago, now has, by Championship standards, an abundance of riches. West Ham are up for this, they owe their loyal supporters a win after consecutive home draws and have reduced admission prices for tonight and the game with Doncaster Rovers at the weeeknd to get as big a crowd as possible behind them in the final promotion push. Two huge games, six points would see them with a couple of toes back in the EPL and I expect them to get the first of them this evening, with the Hammers midfield far too strong for the visitors. West Ham united -1 ball 1.93 asian line.

SERIE A : BOLOGNA - JUVENTUS

Really........

Good Luck.

TAKEN FROM MY MONDAY NOTES ......

........but I am going to personally play the "over" market ( whatever it might be) around the 75th minute and maybe push it again for micro stakes around the 83-84 minute mark, when we should get very big odds.

SPL : DUNDEE UNITED - INVERNESS CT

We discusses United quite a lot last month , especially around the cup game with Rangers, they are mow unbeaten in six, with four wins from five starts and three consecutive cleansheets, the only goal they have conceded in 455 minutes came in a 5-1 win on the road at high flying St Johnstone, where they did us a favour and three points tonight would not only cement their top six place, but would take them into fourth and a european place. They would love that ahead of a visit from Glasgow Rangers at the weekend, despite the huge problems the Gers are facing, it will still be some time before the other clubs in the SPL view that as anything other than a huge and tough fixture. ICT are without a win in five and in that sequence have played the top two three times, so will have had to work hard for scant reward, but whilst you could argue they might be up for an "easier" fixture, they also failed to beat basement club Dunfermline in that sequence. The visitors have conceded more road goals than anyone apart from the bottom two, but appear safe from relegation concerns at present, but also unlikely to break into the top six, ahead of the playoffs, to do so, they simply have to collect all three points tonight, so will surely have to open up at some stage, that should play into United's hands and with the Arabs already having collected six points and the same number of goals from the two earlier league meetings this season, a third win for the home side looks firmly on the cards. 1.25 units Dundee United -0.75 ball asian line.

LIGUE 2 : NANTES - LE HAVRE

These two are six and nine points respectively off the promotion spots with this game in hand, they are also eleven and eight off the relegation spots and the .........

Good Luck.