Wednesday, March 21, 2012



We spoke earlier this season about the wide open nature of matches between the top EPL clubs and that has shown little sign of changing. The sixteen fixtures between top five teams have yet to produce a 0-0 draw and the goal per game split looks a lot like this ....

one goal.... 1
two goals .... 1
three goals ... 4
four goals .... 2
five goals ....2
six goals .... 2
seven goals ... 2
eight goals .... 1
ten goals ...... 1

So, 14 have finished "over", with a massive eight or 50% producing five or more, "over" 4.5 goals is offered at 6.0 + , with up to 6.4 currently available on the exchanges and that looks a nice price in a game where any goal inside the first 30 minutes is likely to blow the match wide open, with both surely looking for maximum points. Only twice has a team failed to score in those 16 starts and Tottenham should have had two in their visit to Old Trafford early season, nine of the road teams ( 56.25%) have scored at least two goals and it is this gung-ho attacking policy, especially on the road, which has served up some great domestic entertainment, but cost English clubs very dear in Europe this season. Chelsea are circa 3.5 to score twice, something they did in the reverse fixture and which Tottenham did here recently. The Blues arrive with renewed confidence after four straight wins since AVB left and who knows how Fernando Torres will react now that he has finally broken his duck, albeit "only" against Leicester City. Hosts have toiled through their last three fixtures, losing at Swansea and going out of the Europa League to Sporting, who also scored twice here at the Etihad btw and now trail their cross town rivals by four points at the top of the table. Defensively, they still look vunerable at times, Lescott and Kompany are both doubts tonight and it would be a disaster if both were to miss out again, no John Terry for the visitors, goals on the cards, the basic "over" is OK if you want to go down that route, but I will be a little braver and opt for five or more.

Good Luck.

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