Monday, October 08, 2012



FC Dallas led for an hour, but were unable to hold on to their lead, to be honest, a point was the least Chivas deserved from the match , so no complaints at this end. The NFL went well, the New York Giants covered the spread and the San Franisco 49ers again posted some very big numbers, they totalled a franchise high 621 yards of offense and the split of over 300 yards each through the air and on the ground is a thing of beauty and an offensive coordinator's dream. The defense has allowed just three points in eight quarters of football and the loss to the Vikings has clearly worked as a wake up call and got them refocused. Next three games are tougher, before a bye in Week 9, but I am confident they are playoff bound and wildly pleased with our outright bet ( see below). We are 7 from 9 ( 77.78% ) in the NFL this year and can hopefully inprove upon that tonight.


Good Luck.

 written September 9th.....

I am going to ease into the new season and keep a fairly low profile for the first two weeks, especially with regard to comments, as I want to keep as much information to myself until it is needed.

However, I have to put up my outright bet from the get go and that is the San Francisco 49ers. It is simply impossible to overstate the impact coach Jim Harbaugh has had at the club in just 20 months. Last year was meant to be one of rebuilding, he entered the new season, with a lot of new players , shortened summer practice due to the "lockout"  and taking over a team which had not posted a winning season in nine years. They not not only won, but did so 13 times in the regular season and went to the NFC Championship game losing in overtime (and they should have won), to the New York Giants who went on to win the Super Bowl. That was an incredible achievement.

Harbaugh and the coaching team he brought with him from Stanford believe in teaching, not just telling players to do something, but explaining why, it is all about improvement and attention to details, he is a coach from top to toe, a man born to lead, from a family of leaders. His father and brother are football coaches, another sibling is a Basketball coach. I love these quotes from Trent Dilfer who said "he has done exactly what he did at Stanford, he’s taken guys who thought they were tough and taught them how to be tough. " His offensive genius isn’t necessarily in the modern-day passing game,he and his staff are very good at scheming the running game, Harbaugh is a master of creating matchups in the running game and capitalizing on the play-action" .

The loss to the Giants still hurts quarterback Alex Smith, who said "As much as we all talk about pressing delete on last year ... I don't think that anyone is pressing delete on the taste in our mouth." Smith threw for a career-high 3,150 yards and 17 touchdowns last year, and his five interceptions were tied for the third-fewest in NFL history with a minimum of 400 attempts. He was playing with a wide receiving corps that was considered one of the league's worst, and that unit managed just one reception in the NFC title game loss. That was what ultimately let them down, the existing group will improve quite a bit IMO, but they have added Giants wide receiver Mario Mannigham and running back Brandon Jacobs to the squad and the offense will be far more potent this season. Also 35 yo Randy Moss came out of retirement to sign a one year contract, hard to know what to make of this, but Moss is an all time great receiver and if anyone can get another golden year out of him, then it is Harbaugh and his team. I heard that he has been quick and impressive in training camp and this really could be incredible business, anyway, anything he brings to the Niners is a bonus. As a fomer QB himself knows a good wide receiver when he sees one. The 49 er defense is awesome, it was the best in the NFL last season, giving up just 227 points and not allowing a rushing touchdown through the first 14 games, posting 42 sacks, 23 interceptions, 15 fumble recoveries, a safety, a defensive touchdown and 2 return touchdowns, through the regular season, it was ranked #4 but was clearly #1 for my money.

They come into the season oozing quiet confidence, left tackle Joe Staley said they feel "much further along than we were last year."

Green Bay are all about the offense, they were big Super Bowl favourites last season after going 15-1 through regular season and QB Aaron Rodgers set the NFL single-season record with a 122.5 passer rating and franchise records with 4,643 yards and 45 touchdown passes, his team scoring an average of 35 points per game, the 5th highest in history. However, their defense gave up 4,924 passing yards, the most in NFL history and their pass rush was almost non existent. They have looked out of synch in pre season and the 49ers can put more pressure on Rodgers than he normally sees. If they can stop the run as effectively as last season, it will be easier to deal with even the amazing Packers receivers, it is always easier to defend, when you "know" what a team is going to do.

Packers have/ had the NFL's worst defense and go into the start of this season with several young players set to play in key roles.Outside linebacker Nick Perry, the team's first-round draft pick this year, will be a starter, they will also have to go with youth in the secondary to cover for the offseason move of 35-year-old cornerback Charles Woodson to safety. Linebacker Desmond Bishop is out for the season and second-year player Davon House, who made an early bid in training camp to win a starting job at cornerback is injured. Anyway, today is more about the 49ers for me, they do not have to win today, but if they do, the 14-1 will disappear, if they lose narrowly I doubt it will change at all.
So 1.75 units San Francisco to win the Super Bowl 15.0.... 14.0 + is ok.

Edit: 49ers are now down to 6.0

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