Saturday, October 27, 2012


It looks like I am heading for a losing week and I thought it only fair to mention it, after "only" talking about  winners recently.  As I type I am 5-6 points down, nothing too disastrous, especially after winning ten +points last week and nine the week before and each of the last six weeks, posting a massive 160 points profit over the last 29 weeks. To be honest, it was overdue and I have been expecting it, no one can win all the time, it is impossible, all you can do is keep trying to make correct decisions, maybe cut stakes a little when things go against you and ride it out.

I am not even sure I am in poor form yet, one slight set back means very little and I have gone 4W, 1L and 6W over the last eleven weeks, so maybe I will immediately get back on track.

I take a long term view of things and have been in good form for seven months, I would not say things had turned, until I had lost for a month or more, but that is me. I can only write the previews and place the bets, what happens afterwards is beyond my control. 

I could post much bigger profits too, but I only give selections that are freely available and for good liquidity. Sometimes this is very frustrating, like yesterday when I previewed this Ligue 2 match ....


I suspect we will see goal here and they might come early ! Guingamp have struggled for consistency, looking good one week and poor the next, they have both scored and conceded in each of their last six starts and their last ten have averaged 2.8 goals per game. The visitors are also without a clean sheet in six, their last ten have averaged 3.2 goals, but they do arrive buoyed by a morale boosting 4-2 win over Arles last weekend, only their second of the season. They have a good record here in Brittany, losing on just two of their last nine visits and both teams have been on the scoresheet in the last five h2h meetings.  We might see those goals come early, as Guingamp have conceded a massive 58% between the 30th and 60th minute and an incredibly low 12% in the last 15, Sedan also go against the norm and have scored 60% of all their goals in the first half.

Guingamp will be pleased with their 2-1 win at Caen last week and will have striker Christophe Mandanne(10-2-1) back from suspension, defender Paul Babiloni, who has been playing on the left hand side of defence in the absence of Dorian Leveque remains out, and this is a key and troublesome position for them.

Sedan will be without striker Naim Sliti (6-0-0 but less than 300 minutes on the pitch) and fringe midfielders Florian Makhedjouf (7-1-3) and Ahmed Yahiaoui (5-0-0), but have the offensive options to trouble this suspect Guingamp backline.

 Both to score, quite possibly a home win, but the odds on the "over" are better and offer far more value in my opinion. Those early goal stats are interesting and odds of between 3.0 and 3.5 for over 1.5 first half goals are tempting if you can find them, but I will keep things simple. 1.25 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.11 asian line.

Guingamp : Samassa, Planté - Martins Pereira, Bellugou, Cerdan, Imbula, Atik, Mathis, Mo. Diallo, Giresse, Yatabaré, Alioui, Sankoh, Kerbrat, Fauré, Charrier, Mandanne.  

Sedan : Ramé, Perraud - Boli, Bellaïd, Pogba, Dielna, Marcq, Beziouen, Koné, Le Bihan, Mam. Diallo, Diaby, Kinkela, Bongongui, Bijimine, Traoré.
I liked the odds for early goals, but could not put that in red type as it was only available with "European" bookmakers and it is VERY hard for a winning punter to get on with any of them and I expect my subscribers to be winning long term punters. I mention it because some might be able to bet, or the notes might help them get another angle ( their own) on the game.
This was a losing selection, but Guingamp won, there were two goals inside 30 minutes, so the over 1.5 line for 30 minutes was a comfortable winner, but the third and all important goal never came.
I know I think a little different from the norm, but this is a very good preview IMO and the result is kind of immaterial.
On Thursday, I previewed ....

Fluminense now lead at the top by six points after losing to their nearest challenger Atletico Mineiro last weekend and with the second placed team having a very winable home match up next, Flu will want to ensure the three points tonight and put some additional pressure on their title rival, but things are rarely that easy with big favourites in Brazil and Coritiba have not lost in six and have tightened up considerably as a defensive unit, conceding 32 goals through their first 16 matches and just 17 through their last 16, that is almost a goal per game improvement.  The visitors will have offensive midfielder Lincoln (27-3-6) and striker Deivid (13-6-3) back from suspension and that will greatly increase their offensive threat. They will be without central defender Sergio Escudero (14-0-1) but he didn't play in the 0-0 draw at Gremio last week. Fluminense are at pretty much full strength, just missing the odd long term injured player.

The visitors have tended to keep it tight on the road against the stronger teams, losing 1-0 at both Atletico and Sao Paulo, drawing 0-0 with Gremio and Vasco and they have a good record here, losing just once in five visits. This is an odd one, Flu want to win of course, but a point will have plenty of value, that ensures at least a four point advantage, with five rounds to play. I am torn between the visitors +1 ball and a narrow home win, I just about favour Fluminense to win by a single goal which is available with most companies @ circa 3.50/3.60, this is the draw on the traditional ( -1) handicap , but as it is not possibly available to all of you , I will leave it in black type.
Same situation, not freely available and therefore not in red type, that feels a little like throwing 2.5 profits away ( and I could have done with those this week), but some readers will have been able to bet.

I do not want to spoon feed subscribers, I preview a lot of matches, circa 100 per month, that give them a great deal of options and information and the rest is up to them. The red type selections will make you money LONG TERM, but you will get so much more out of the service by reading the previews fully and using the content, not just on that particular day, but in the future.

The email service is one of a kind and offers unbelievable value, three subscribers have wriiten to me in the last month and said that it is too cheap ! I agree ! 

I will be back later and will post a preview for this afternoon, if at all possible, if not, for the later matches, but remember, I am in "bad form". 

Good Luck.

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