Thursday, October 11, 2012



The good news is that all three bets won yesterday , we have had five winners and one half stake loser from six selections this week and it is only Thursday morning for those of us based in Europe. The bad news is that those stats are going to be unchanged tomorrow morning, as I have nothing to pass on today, but never fear, as I have plenty planned for tomorrow and the rest of the weekend.
There are two Brazilian and one NFL match today and I was "interested", but the oddsmakers priced all three games very similarly to me and it is better to wait for other opportunities. For example, in the NFL game, I saw the Steelers as a five point favourite and the o/u as 44 and Pinnacle are -6 and 43.5, I do feel this one could bust open and having allowed the Broncos and Raiders to score 65 points in two previous road games, the Titans could put some points on the board against a Steel Curtain which is not shutting away from Heinz Field and if you really, really twisted my arm for a bet, Tennesse to score over 17.5 points with Pinnacle ( Team Totals) would have to be my pick, but that is after a lot of twisting !
One of these Wednesday selections (see below) was advertised on Twitter and posted in full on Facebook yesterday afternoon.


These two are deep in trouble, 10 and 12 points respectively from safety and as you might expect from the teams currently holding up the rest of Serie A, they have the worst defensive records, having conceded 103 goals between them. Regular readers might well guess where I am going with this one and you would be right, two struggling teams usually means goals and that is what I expect to see tonight. Neither team can settle for a point and the first goal should blow this match wide open and given that, their dire defensive records and extensive injury and suspension problems in key areas at the back, I would be amazed if we did not collect on our "over" bet, but gambling never ceases to amaze and astound me, so don't read too much into that !

Figueirense conceded six at the weekend, twelve in their last three and at least two in seven of their last nine starts. They will be without suspended central defender Sandro (6-0-0), holding midfielders Tulio (23-0-2) and Jackson (18-0-0), "sicknote" otherwise known as striker Sebastian Abreu (6-0-1) is away on international duty, but has featured very rarely in any case and only plays when he feels like it, as far as I can tell. They have a couple of long term injuries too, but a much bigger offensive loss is Caio (26-9-5) altough five of his goals came very early season and he has only scored once in the last month, they do have other forward players who previously knew where the goal was and it is time for one of them to step up and help Aloisio ( 22-9-2).

Atletico have conceded two or more in four of their last five road games, the exception was a 2-1 win at six point league leading Fluminense, their only away win of the year, work that one out ! They are also missing a trio of suspended players in,  striker Ricardo Bueno (11-1-0), center back Gustavo (16-0-0)... they have lost 7 from 16 when he plays, 9 from 12 without him, and left back Eron ( 20-1-3). They are already without a handful on injured players
including midfielder Joilson (19-2-2), but almost all the others are very long term and can no longer be considered important. They played top five team Vasco for well over an hour with ten men at the weekend and even ended with nine on the pitch, so could be a little short energy wise.

The reverse fixture ended in a 3-2 home win, a nervy affair with poor defending and three penalties conceded, something similar on the cards tonight. 1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 1.94 asian line.
Figueirense: Neto, Wilson, Guti, Edson , João Paulo; Elsinho, Helder, Claudinei, Guilherme Lazaroni, Almir, Coutinho, Diogo,Doriva, Botti, Ronny, Julio Cesar, Willian Pottker , Aloisio.

Good Luck.

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