Saturday, August 10, 2013

Friday August 9th clubgowi #1 newsletter

Friday August 9th

Justin Rose made a solid start at the US PGA Championship and is in tie for 11th place at -2, he was a little unlucky in that a break for bad weather came just at the time he was "charging".

No bet there for me today, but I will mention that Pinnacle Sports have paired together Brandt Snedeker and Jason Day in a second round two ball, Australian Day shot -3 yesterday and is in a tie for 5th, Snedeker is three shots back. The US player is used to competing in big events now and might feel that he has to push things a little today and his Round 2 record this year is poor, averaging 71.76 strokes per round, which leaves him ranked way down at #153 on Tour. Day, at odds of 2.11 looks too big, but I did not see anything much of either yesterday, so I will have to pass.

We have an incredibly busy weekend ahead, with some exciting looking fixtures and I will update the schedule for that this afternoon, when I send what is effectively, the first of the Saturday emails at 15.30 UK time, with a look at the morning J-League matches.

France Ligue 2: Laval Caen

Caen came up six points short last season, it was a strange campaign ,they were strong enough at home in terms of wins, but lost five and needed to grind out a point at times, on the road, it was the reverse, just four losses, but too many (9) draws ! They did well for us on the odd occasion we backed them in away starts and it was hard to put a handle on what exactly went wrong, defensively only champions Monaco conceded fewer and they scored as many as promoted Guingamp. They lost key midfielder Laurent Agouazi( 21-2-2) for much of mid season and collected 1.81 points when he played, 1.39 without him, they missed the Algerian's experience in midfield and they have addressed this potential problem by signing Jérôme Rothen (28-3-9 for Bastia in Ligue 1, with six of those goals and assists coming on the road), he was hugely influential in Bastia's 201101 promotion campaign and looks very good business. Left winger Mathias Autret has joined on loan from Lorient and right winger Jonathan Kodjia from Reims, all four started in the impressive 3-1 defeat of another prpmotion contender in Dijon last week. Kodjia had an impressive season at struggling Amiens last season and has hit the ground running with a goal and assist last week and a brace of goals in the 2-0 midweek cup defeat of Metz.

This looks a good fixture for Caen to start their away days, four of their six road wins last season came before the end of October, including a 2-1 win here. Laval have not scored in their two openers, they only escaped relegation by two points last season, conceding far to freely and with the goals drying up, that is a dangerous combination. They made wholesale changes in the summer, seven starters made their debut last week, including all offensive players, a clear transition period, they might come good, but even so, it seems sure to take time and a team like Caen, who arrive in really confident mood look too much and the experienced visitors should be too strong for the smallest squad in Ligue 2, which is also missing Sebastien Renouard and Guillaume Rippert. 1.5 units Caen -0.25 ball 1.96 asian line/Ibramarket.

Laval : Vanhamel, Hautbois - Alla, Adéoti, Bekamenga, Belaud, Ben Djemia, Couturier, Ma. Diallo, Gonçalves, Militosyan, Perrot, Robic, Stosic, E. Thibault, M. Traoré, Tibéri.

Caen : D. Perquis, Reulet - Agouazi, Appiah, Autret, Duhamel, N. Kanté, Kodjia, Montaroup, Nabab, Pierre, Raineau, Rothen, Saad, Seube, Mo. Wagué.

France Ligue 2: Tours -Niort

We did OK with goals in the Tours matches towards the end of last season, around the turn of the year they went on a run where they kept just one cleansheet in 14 and that came against a toothless Istres team which had not scored in ten previously. New coach Olivier Pantaloni has made a lot of changes in a difficult period for the club off the pitch and I think they will come good, but defensively they remain a work in progress and the old problems remain, having conceded four in two starts already, On the plus side, they have also scored three and Andy Delort, who the coach knows well from their time at Ajaccio, former Lyon striker Bryan Bergougnoux (32-9-5 last season), Ali Gherieni and a whole host of promising young talent, give them real offensive options.

Niort at times played decent football last season, but they have already conceded four goals in two home starts and their away matches last season produced the most goals of any bottom half team who survived.They lost two important central/defensive midfielders in Johan Gastien (34-4-3) to Dijon and Julien Ricaud (30-0-1), who have not really been replaced and central defender  Djibril Konaté (28-2-1) joined Angers, with 35 yo  Éric Chelle from Istres a direct replacement (!), which gives some idea of their budgetary restraints. They will score goals, but not without conceding and defensively look weaker than last season, with a problem through their central spine.1.5 units "Over" 2.25 goals 2.19 asian line/Ibramarket.

Tours : B. Leroy, Maubleu - Bergougnoux, Bouhours, Cetout, Chavalerin, Delort, Fou. Diawara, C. Fabre, T. Fontaine, Gherieni, Ketkeophomphoe, Kouakou, Schewchlen, Seguin, Vumbi.

Niort : Delecroix, Roche - Bernard, Bong, Chelle, Diaw, Hébras, Houla, Koukou, Lahaye, Letzelter, F. Martin, Pallois, K. Rocheteau, Roye, Sala.

German Bundesliga: Bayern Munich-Borussia Monchengladbach

I do not really cover German matches apart from the playoffs and that is not going to change this season, but I was hugely tempted by the odds offered for this and simply couldn't let them pass. This is a traditionally high scoring fixture and BMG have scored in 17 of the last 20 h2h meetings, including in a 5-1 loss in the Telekom Cup last month, matches which are played over 60 minutes. New boss Pep Guardiola, who is already under the media spotlight after the 4-2 Super Cup loss to Dortmund, has been tinkering with formation and line up in pre season and his team have looked vunerable at the back. The backlash in Munich appears to have started before anything has gone wrong and players have already spoken out about the coach's obsessive nature and need to change every tiny detail in training and that he tried some very odd changes in formation.  Bastian Schweinsteiger has already said "I'm not quite sure of his plans for me", striker Mario Mandzukic is unhappy at being sidelined in a couple of warm up games and being asked to play wide in others. The usually sartorially elegant Guardiola has also made changes in himself and has been seen in pre season wearing denim on the sidelines, something he would never have done in Barcelona , first signs of a square peg trying to fit into a round hole ? The worst thing for the coach was Bayern winning the treble/Champions League last season, there is nowhere to go but down, if they had not landed the big one, he would have got a far easier time this season, with players, both current and former ( this is a club like no other) and the media, prepared to ease off a little. Now, every change is being discussed and if results do not flow quickly, questioned. Thirteen pre season games, 12 wins and all anyone wants to talk about is the Dortmund game......welcome to Bayern Munich !

The visitors have signed Max Kruse (34-11-8 for Freiburg last season) and Brazilian Raffael (16-2-5 in half a campaign for Schalke) to give them more offensive threat. they look a little stronger this year and with no European involvement, can concentrate on the league. Hard to see them winning today, but they can play a minor role in a high scoring contest. 1.25 units both teams to score 2.10 + general quote....I have seen 7.0-8.0 for BMG to score twice, which is very attractive and I might try to take that for minimal stakes, but will "officially" stick with the BTS selection.

Good Luck.

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