Saturday, August 10, 2013

Thursday August 8th clubgowi newsletter

Thursday August 8th

I really do not like these early stage Europa league matches, betting limits are small and many matches are quoted to largely encourage one way action at low odds (at least early in the day), or that is the way it seems to me, which is not the asian bookmakers usual approach. From the playoff stage onwards (August 22/29) the competition becomes far more interesting.

My own prices for the two Brazilian games tonight, were very similar to the existing line and that doesn't leave an awful lot else, so, just a few words about the USPGA Golf Championship, the last major of the year.

Two emails on Friday, the first at 10.00 UK time will focus heavily on Ligue 2 and the follow up at 16.00, is effectively the first of a whole host of Saturday notes and will cover the morning J-League fixtures.

USPGA Golf Championship:

Oak Hill Country Club,Rochester, New York

This is expected to be a very tough championship, it is a difficult Par 70, with small greens that slope violently and with very penal rough if you venture too far off a straight line. The course is set up like a US Open course and it is the winner of that event and email favourite, Justin Rose, I expect to go well this week.

He was always likely to be distracted after winning his first major and the media attention after his victory at Merion in June was great and he freely admits he was not as well prepared for the Open at Muirfield (missed cut), as he should have been.

He claimed to be refocused now and said last week ... "I did my best to enjoy being a major champion for the first month or so, but there does come a point where the back-slapping that you get from everybody, which is obviously very nice, in some ways can prevent you from staying fully focused on what's ahead."I feel like two months removed from it now, I feel like the trophy is back at home."I've pretty much been travelling with it non-stop for four or five weeks and it's back home where it should be and I can reflect on it in quiet moments, but it's time to move forward."

He showed up well enough in the WGC Bridgestone last week with a 17th place finish and that should have set him up nicely coming here, he missed the Open cut last year too, was 5th in the WGC event and 3rd in this, so largely similar form, as we can make excuses for, but also positively factor in, the major win this time round.

He spent too long back in the UK after that famous victory and it interfered with his usual disciplined approach to events, last week and this, were the first tournaments that he has been fully prepared for since then and he should significantly come on for his showing ar Firestone, where his weekend 69-69 was only bettered by six golfers.

In the last seven years, he has played 25 majors, missed the cut in 9 and posted eight top ten, 11 top 20 and 13 top 25 finishes in the other 16, with an average finishing position of 18.8, I would argue strongly that he is a much better player now than 5-7 years ago and far less likely to miss a cut on a US Open style course, which plays to all his strengths. If he makes the cut this week and he is very motivated and will surely be focused from day 1 as he is partnered with the two other 2013 major winners in Phil Mickelson and Adam Scott, then he has a 69% chance to turn that into a top 20 finish. The odds for him to do so are 2.10 -2.20 which are way above my own idea of the correct odds (1.70-1.80) , so we have to bet, but with a little caution ( he would normally be a 1.75 unit selection) as we are already on him quite big in the Race To Dubai, see preview. He has been overtaken there by Henrik Stenson (leaderboard), which I also expect to serve as further motivation this week, but is still favourite for the "money list" , at roughly half the odds we originally bet.

1.5 units Justin Rose to finish top 20 USPGA Championship 2.10-2.20 view odds

Good Luck.

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