Friday update ...."maximum" bet

I very rarely give a "maximum" three unit selection, there were just three in 2012, all won at odds

of between 2.0 and 2.28 and there has been one this year and that is reproduced in the post below.

Freely available at 2.75 and even up to 3.20 in a place, United are now trading at between 1.72 and 1.83 and win or lose, will provide a lot of excitement, offered terrific value and could already be traded out for a profit after just four matches !

That is meant as a sample of the type of match/event preview that clubgowi subscribers receive on a day to day basis, circa 25-30 previews per week, around 1,400 per year !

About ten percent of the total clubgowi output is available as free to view content, the rest is kept solely for subscribers to the service.

These free samples can be read occasionally here on the blog, but more usually on the clubgowi website and there are also regular snippets on our Twitter page and updates on Facebook.

You can also view our results on this page, about our sponsor here and an article about "How Everything Works" on the subscription page of the website, which explains how the previews are written/set out.

However, the best way to make sure you get to see everything, is to sign up to the service, become a full clubgowi member and have everything delivered direct to your inbox.

Good Luck.

Sample Post

League 2 : Oxford United ( written July29th)

United are another team. like Fleetwood Town, that we have kept an eye on through their time in the Conference, we won money on them in their promotion year (2010) and the fact that it took a club as big as Oxford three years to get back into the Football League, proves how tough the "fifth" tier is. United were a massive club at that level, still getting 8,000 crowds on a regular basis and taking 1,000 + fans to away games, where home teams were struggling to get two thirds of that number. The potential at United is huge and the town could support a Championship level team, the stadium too, but they would have to finish the fourth stand at the Kassam Stadium first.

I have been patently waiting and feel this will be their big year, they have finished 12th, 9th, 9th since returning to League 2 and look poised to improve upon that. They have flirted with the playoff places in each of those campaigns, only five points short on their "debut", four adrift in 2011-12 and again last season, it will take only minimal improvement to break into the top seven and as we discussed in the Fleetwood Town preview, the division looks overall, a little weaker this time round.

Last year they were cursed with injuries for much of the early campaign and could not build on a hugely promising start after winning their first three matches. They actually won more games than promoted Bradford City, but drew very few and clearly needed to show a little more "steel" at times, especially on the road and be prepared to grind out a point from matches they are not able to win. They have kept faith with coach Chris Wilder, who at various times has been eyed up by clubs at a higher level and he has been busy over the Summer, he cleared out a lot of "deadwood" and some others who had not been doing a job for the U's and used the money this released, to strengthen in key areas. Bringing in experienced left back Tom Newey who played 45 games at League 1 level for Scunthorpe United last season and who has played 250 matches in L2, midfielders Danny Rose and Asa Hall, young Welsh U21 defender Jonathan Meades who never quite made the breakthrough in a strong Bournemouth side, talented utility player David Hunt, who has twice played in L2 promotion sides and veteran striker Dave Kitson, who has scored 70 goals at Championship/Premier League level. With Kitson and James Constable ( who scored 14 goals in all comps last season, despite not being fully fit until October), they have a potent looking duo up front and if Kitson comes with the right attitude, he could score a lot of goals this season, he has talked the talk so far and said that he turned down offers from two Championship clubs to join United.

Last to join was centre back Johnny Mullins who played 30 games in Rotherham's promotion winning side last season, he actually spent two months on loan at Oxford last Autumn, making eight starts and scoring twice and Wilder was desperate to sign him, but it never happened, however, after a Summer of pursuit, CW got his man. Mullins said last week : "This is definitely a club geared up for promotion and I want to get back in League One."There are a lot of players here who can play in different positions. there is a togetherness and that is key."You look at the structure, the squad is very strong and I believe we will be up there.“Having fought so hard to get Rotherham up last season, I wasn’t planning on playing in League Two again.“However, I believe that this time next year Oxford will be a League One side anyway and I’m looking forward hugely to helping make that happen and then moving onwards and upwards with the club from there.”
He is seen as the final piece of the jigsaw by the coaching staff at the Kassam and it is hard/impossible not to see United competing for at the very least, a top 7 finish.

Mullins, Hunt, Newey and Meades, Jake Wright, Michael Raynes and Andy Whing (200 games at a higher level) give them a really solid look and certainly no longer the soft underbelly they showed at times and they will not be losing 19 games or conceding 61 goals this time round, of that I am fairly certain.
In midfield, the talented Alfie Potter, Sean Rigg (24 yo yet 200 + league starts) and Scott Davies ( in the Crawley Town promotion side) give them a solid look with the two new boys, providing competition for places and talented youngster Callum O'Dowda who started against both Birmingham City and Coventry in pre season and really impressed, might be the "joker" in the pack, despite only being 18yo.  Up front, Deane Smalley will want to improve on the five goals he scored last season and put pressure on the other two strikers.

Meades was stretchered off on Saturday, not sure what the extent of that injury is, there was also a trialist from Fulham in that game and at least one more signing is expected this week, despite the "final piece" comment from staff. There is not a huge amount of money around at Oxford, but they found the funds to sign Kitson and if they get off to a good start, the crowds will flood in and the board will fund additions, if necessary and a League 1 push looks likely. To give you some idea of their potential, United sold 2,000 tickets for their away opener at Portsmouth weeks ago and then an additional 500, if allowed, they would have taken 3,000 + supporters to the match, where, with Pompey selling 10,000 + season tickets a circa 17,000 crowd is expected .

I cannot see United falling short this time round, they probably only need to improve 4-5 points and look much stronger and the division weaker, in terms of support, only Portsmouth are bigger and Plymouth Argyle and Bristol Rovers on a par.

The bet I like is 2.625-2.75 for a top 7 finish, which I would have to take for 3 units, which is my maximum bet..... there is actually 3.20 on offer in one place, which is HUGE,but obviously will not last long or be available for any kind of money.

If these odds are not available to you, there is 5.0-6.0 for promotion, which also appeals, but I much prefer the "safer" bet given we have the Fleetwood position.
Good Luck.

Monday...... the bottom line !

Granada won 2-1 yesterday, I hope that some of you got on . I did plan to post another preview later in the evening (see below) on the clubgowi website and it was a winner too, again at odds of 2.20 + (we were 4 from 4 on football yesterday, at average odds of 2.15+, including a "very strong" selection), but when I re-read the notes, there was too much information there about possible future selections, to post on an open forum, so I had to pass.

Many of the previews are written in such a way, as to also give clues to future winners, potential improvers, or teams with huge incentive who now have previously missing key players now available, clubs that we can follow for a week or two, before the oddsmakers catch up with the information. The second selection yesterday fell firmly into the latter of those groups and when I looked at it again, it was simply too valuable to post.

I have grown a little weary of repeating it and I am sure you of reading it, but it is the content of the preview which has the real value, not the signature red type bottom line.

Anyway, I apologise if I mislead anyone over the missing "second" preview, to get all the clubgowi selections delivered directly  to your inbox click here.

Good Luck.

Sunday update.....

14 sample emails below, over nine straight days, which gives you a pretty good idea of what the clubgowi

subscriber newsletter provides on a day to day basis.

You can view a preview of one of today's La Liga matches on the website and I will put another up later in the evening .


Things you may have missed ....

Results

Europe v Asia

The Bigger Picture

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Good Luck.

Sample clubgowi newsletters.......

I am going to post the clubgowi newsletter on here for two to three weeks, so that you can see exactly what subscribers get for their money. You will be able to scroll back down to August 1st and the emails will be reproduced largely in full ( I might have to censor the odd comment), a couple of days after they have been sent out to subscibers.

The newsletter is sent out daily, twice on busy days (most weekends), so, circa 500 copies per year, covering 1,300-1,400 matches/events. It is one of a kind, check it out below and at clubgowi.com , the home of the premier sports betting newsletter.

Good Luck.

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

Friday August 9th clubgowi #1 newsletter

Friday August 9th

Justin Rose made a solid start at the US PGA Championship and is in tie for 11th place at -2, he was a little unlucky in that a break for bad weather came just at the time he was "charging".

No bet there for me today, but I will mention that Pinnacle Sports have paired together Brandt Snedeker and Jason Day in a second round two ball, Australian Day shot -3 yesterday and is in a tie for 5th, Snedeker is three shots back. The US player is used to competing in big events now and might feel that he has to push things a little today and his Round 2 record this year is poor, averaging 71.76 strokes per round, which leaves him ranked way down at #153 on Tour. Day, at odds of 2.11 looks too big, but I did not see anything much of either yesterday, so I will have to pass.

We have an incredibly busy weekend ahead, with some exciting looking fixtures and I will update the schedule for that this afternoon, when I send what is effectively, the first of the Saturday emails at 15.30 UK time, with a look at the morning J-League matches.

France Ligue 2: Laval Caen

Caen came up six points short last season, it was a strange campaign ,they were strong enough at home in terms of wins, but lost five and needed to grind out a point at times, on the road, it was the reverse, just four losses, but too many (9) draws ! They did well for us on the odd occasion we backed them in away starts and it was hard to put a handle on what exactly went wrong, defensively only champions Monaco conceded fewer and they scored as many as promoted Guingamp. They lost key midfielder Laurent Agouazi( 21-2-2) for much of mid season and collected 1.81 points when he played, 1.39 without him, they missed the Algerian's experience in midfield and they have addressed this potential problem by signing Jérôme Rothen (28-3-9 for Bastia in Ligue 1, with six of those goals and assists coming on the road), he was hugely influential in Bastia's 201101 promotion campaign and looks very good business. Left winger Mathias Autret has joined on loan from Lorient and right winger Jonathan Kodjia from Reims, all four started in the impressive 3-1 defeat of another prpmotion contender in Dijon last week. Kodjia had an impressive season at struggling Amiens last season and has hit the ground running with a goal and assist last week and a brace of goals in the 2-0 midweek cup defeat of Metz.

This looks a good fixture for Caen to start their away days, four of their six road wins last season came before the end of October, including a 2-1 win here. Laval have not scored in their two openers, they only escaped relegation by two points last season, conceding far to freely and with the goals drying up, that is a dangerous combination. They made wholesale changes in the summer, seven starters made their debut last week, including all offensive players, a clear transition period, they might come good, but even so, it seems sure to take time and a team like Caen, who arrive in really confident mood look too much and the experienced visitors should be too strong for the smallest squad in Ligue 2, which is also missing Sebastien Renouard and Guillaume Rippert. 1.5 units Caen -0.25 ball 1.96 asian line/Ibramarket.

Laval : Vanhamel, Hautbois - Alla, Adéoti, Bekamenga, Belaud, Ben Djemia, Couturier, Ma. Diallo, Gonçalves, Militosyan, Perrot, Robic, Stosic, E. Thibault, M. Traoré, Tibéri.

Caen : D. Perquis, Reulet - Agouazi, Appiah, Autret, Duhamel, N. Kanté, Kodjia, Montaroup, Nabab, Pierre, Raineau, Rothen, Saad, Seube, Mo. Wagué.

France Ligue 2: Tours -Niort

We did OK with goals in the Tours matches towards the end of last season, around the turn of the year they went on a run where they kept just one cleansheet in 14 and that came against a toothless Istres team which had not scored in ten previously. New coach Olivier Pantaloni has made a lot of changes in a difficult period for the club off the pitch and I think they will come good, but defensively they remain a work in progress and the old problems remain, having conceded four in two starts already, On the plus side, they have also scored three and Andy Delort, who the coach knows well from their time at Ajaccio, former Lyon striker Bryan Bergougnoux (32-9-5 last season), Ali Gherieni and a whole host of promising young talent, give them real offensive options.

Niort at times played decent football last season, but they have already conceded four goals in two home starts and their away matches last season produced the most goals of any bottom half team who survived.They lost two important central/defensive midfielders in Johan Gastien (34-4-3) to Dijon and Julien Ricaud (30-0-1), who have not really been replaced and central defender  Djibril Konaté (28-2-1) joined Angers, with 35 yo  Éric Chelle from Istres a direct replacement (!), which gives some idea of their budgetary restraints. They will score goals, but not without conceding and defensively look weaker than last season, with a problem through their central spine.1.5 units "Over" 2.25 goals 2.19 asian line/Ibramarket.

Tours : B. Leroy, Maubleu - Bergougnoux, Bouhours, Cetout, Chavalerin, Delort, Fou. Diawara, C. Fabre, T. Fontaine, Gherieni, Ketkeophomphoe, Kouakou, Schewchlen, Seguin, Vumbi.

Niort : Delecroix, Roche - Bernard, Bong, Chelle, Diaw, Hébras, Houla, Koukou, Lahaye, Letzelter, F. Martin, Pallois, K. Rocheteau, Roye, Sala.

German Bundesliga: Bayern Munich-Borussia Monchengladbach

I do not really cover German matches apart from the playoffs and that is not going to change this season, but I was hugely tempted by the odds offered for this and simply couldn't let them pass. This is a traditionally high scoring fixture and BMG have scored in 17 of the last 20 h2h meetings, including in a 5-1 loss in the Telekom Cup last month, matches which are played over 60 minutes. New boss Pep Guardiola, who is already under the media spotlight after the 4-2 Super Cup loss to Dortmund, has been tinkering with formation and line up in pre season and his team have looked vunerable at the back. The backlash in Munich appears to have started before anything has gone wrong and players have already spoken out about the coach's obsessive nature and need to change every tiny detail in training and that he tried some very odd changes in formation.  Bastian Schweinsteiger has already said "I'm not quite sure of his plans for me", striker Mario Mandzukic is unhappy at being sidelined in a couple of warm up games and being asked to play wide in others. The usually sartorially elegant Guardiola has also made changes in himself and has been seen in pre season wearing denim on the sidelines, something he would never have done in Barcelona , first signs of a square peg trying to fit into a round hole ? The worst thing for the coach was Bayern winning the treble/Champions League last season, there is nowhere to go but down, if they had not landed the big one, he would have got a far easier time this season, with players, both current and former ( this is a club like no other) and the media, prepared to ease off a little. Now, every change is being discussed and if results do not flow quickly, questioned. Thirteen pre season games, 12 wins and all anyone wants to talk about is the Dortmund game......welcome to Bayern Munich !

The visitors have signed Max Kruse (34-11-8 for Freiburg last season) and Brazilian Raffael (16-2-5 in half a campaign for Schalke) to give them more offensive threat. they look a little stronger this year and with no European involvement, can concentrate on the league. Hard to see them winning today, but they can play a minor role in a high scoring contest. 1.25 units both teams to score 2.10 + general quote....I have seen 7.0-8.0 for BMG to score twice, which is very attractive and I might try to take that for minimal stakes, but will "officially" stick with the BTS selection.

Good Luck.
   

Thursday August 8th clubgowi newsletter

Thursday August 8th

I really do not like these early stage Europa league matches, betting limits are small and many matches are quoted to largely encourage one way action at low odds (at least early in the day), or that is the way it seems to me, which is not the asian bookmakers usual approach. From the playoff stage onwards (August 22/29) the competition becomes far more interesting.

My own prices for the two Brazilian games tonight, were very similar to the existing line and that doesn't leave an awful lot else, so, just a few words about the USPGA Golf Championship, the last major of the year.

Two emails on Friday, the first at 10.00 UK time will focus heavily on Ligue 2 and the follow up at 16.00, is effectively the first of a whole host of Saturday notes and will cover the morning J-League fixtures.

USPGA Golf Championship:

Oak Hill Country Club,Rochester, New York

This is expected to be a very tough championship, it is a difficult Par 70, with small greens that slope violently and with very penal rough if you venture too far off a straight line. The course is set up like a US Open course and it is the winner of that event and email favourite, Justin Rose, I expect to go well this week.

He was always likely to be distracted after winning his first major and the media attention after his victory at Merion in June was great and he freely admits he was not as well prepared for the Open at Muirfield (missed cut), as he should have been.

He claimed to be refocused now and said last week ... "I did my best to enjoy being a major champion for the first month or so, but there does come a point where the back-slapping that you get from everybody, which is obviously very nice, in some ways can prevent you from staying fully focused on what's ahead."I feel like two months removed from it now, I feel like the trophy is back at home."I've pretty much been travelling with it non-stop for four or five weeks and it's back home where it should be and I can reflect on it in quiet moments, but it's time to move forward."

He showed up well enough in the WGC Bridgestone last week with a 17th place finish and that should have set him up nicely coming here, he missed the Open cut last year too, was 5th in the WGC event and 3rd in this, so largely similar form, as we can make excuses for, but also positively factor in, the major win this time round.

He spent too long back in the UK after that famous victory and it interfered with his usual disciplined approach to events, last week and this, were the first tournaments that he has been fully prepared for since then and he should significantly come on for his showing ar Firestone, where his weekend 69-69 was only bettered by six golfers.

In the last seven years, he has played 25 majors, missed the cut in 9 and posted eight top ten, 11 top 20 and 13 top 25 finishes in the other 16, with an average finishing position of 18.8, I would argue strongly that he is a much better player now than 5-7 years ago and far less likely to miss a cut on a US Open style course, which plays to all his strengths. If he makes the cut this week and he is very motivated and will surely be focused from day 1 as he is partnered with the two other 2013 major winners in Phil Mickelson and Adam Scott, then he has a 69% chance to turn that into a top 20 finish. The odds for him to do so are 2.10 -2.20 which are way above my own idea of the correct odds (1.70-1.80) , so we have to bet, but with a little caution ( he would normally be a 1.75 unit selection) as we are already on him quite big in the Race To Dubai, see preview. He has been overtaken there by Henrik Stenson (leaderboard), which I also expect to serve as further motivation this week, but is still favourite for the "money list" , at roughly half the odds we originally bet.

1.5 units Justin Rose to finish top 20 USPGA Championship 2.10-2.20 view odds

Good Luck.

Wednesday August 7th clubgowi #2 newsletter

U.S. Open Cup: Real Salt Lake -Portland Timbers

One leg semi final and the winner will host the final on October 1st, where the victor will claim a hugely valuable CONCACAF Champions League spot. Real Salt Lake have had their eye on both that return to international club football and a domestic title all season and we spoke about that ahead of their quarter final with Carolina Railhawks at the end of June .....

That was a hugely dominant display from Real (against Seattle Sounders), they won the attempts on goal count 17-2, controlled possession and had twice as many crosses from open play. Sometimes those stats do not tell the full story, but this time, it was a fair reflection of a very one sided performance.

We spoke about Railhawks ahead of their last round win over Chivas and they had earlier beaten LA Galaxy, they are not to be underestimated , but both of those wins came at home, LAG did not show the competition respect in terms of approach and Real are no Chivas ! Winner of this will earn a home semi final and it is very much time for the bigger clubs to start taking matters seriously, with the competition winners earning a spot in the 2014-15 CONCACAF Champions League, far an away the easiest route into international club football. Real are unbeaten in seven matches in all comps and scoring freely, coach Jason Kreis  said yesterday "I just think that our intent this year is to win it ( the US Open)." They look set to name a very strong line up and have spoken of the desire to end this inside 90 minutes, with the match the second of four inside 12 days. I favour them to get the job done and to push for a second goal if the first comes early enough, to avoid late drama.

They won that 3-0 and have talked again this week about how motivated they are for this, the match will also be the first of three with Portland Timbers this month, games which could go a long way towards deciding the Supporters Shield and pecking order for the MLS Cup playoffs and they will be looking to lay down a benchmark performance.

Real were on a long unbeaten run before losing consecutive games ( 2-1 @ home to Sporting KC and 4-3 on the road to New York conceding late winners in each), they were without a host of key players for both, as we discussed at the time, but had Álvaro Saborío, Kyle Beckerman and keeper Nick Rimando all back for the 2-2 road draw with Colorado Rapids on Saturday, only Tony Beltran (pictured) and Chris Wingert (both suspended) were missing from the line up. Rimando was key in earning the point, he has conceded just 16 goals in 18 MLS outings this season, RSL have allowed ten in the other five.  Right back Beltran is very solid, they are 10-3-3 when he plays, 1-2-4 without him, infact, they have won just one of the last 14 he has sat out and we are talking about a team in the top 3 of the West in each of those three seasons. Both he and Wingert return tonight , the first time the backs have played together since the win over Carolina, when both scored. When everyone is available, I think Real are the best team in the MLS this season and favour them to take this and a trophy they are very keen on. 1.5 units Real Salt Lake -0.75 ball 2.13 asian handicap/Ibramarket.
Brazil Serie A : Criciúma-Cruzeiro

Hosts have won just once in nine starts, a 2-1 home defeat of Gremio, the sound you can hear in the background is the grinding of teeth as I type that, we were on the visitors that night who pushed the self destruct button and ending the match with nine players, playing almost an entire half two men short !

The hosts are coming off a 2-0 home defeat to Corinthians and will struggle with the quick turnaround against another quality team, as they have lost three key starters to injury, suspension and loan arrangement, in defensive midfielders Amaral (5-0-0) and Elton (9-1-0 .... lost both he has sat out, conceding five goals) and striker Wellington Paulista (6-3-0 ... scored the opener against Gremio), who is registered with the visitors. Without the protection the midfield pair offer the backline it will be hard to kept the league's top scorers out and Cruzeiro will be motivated for the three points which might well take them top of the table. Vistors have named a very attacking squad and taken six strikers with them in a 21 man travelling group, easy to see why they have scored 23 goals already. They are without a defensive midfielder of their own in Nílton (11-3-0), but they have options and look in so much better shape than the hosts.  They lost their last road game 1-0 at Fluminenese, i watched that and was impressed with Gremio who looked very classy going forward and on another day, would have been three up inside 30 minutes and if they half as many chances this evening, will win with a degree of comfort. 1.5 units Cruzeiro -0.5 ball 2.14 asian line/Ibramarket.


Cruzeiro : Fábio, Rafael,  Ceará, Egídio ,Mayke,Bruno Rodrigo, Dedé, Léo, Victorino,Leandro Guerreiro, Lucas Silva, Souza ,Tinga, Everton Ribeiro , Ricardo Goulart, Borges, Luan, Lucca, Martinuccio, Vinicius Araújo ,Wiilian.

Good Luck.

Wednesday August 7th clubgowi #1 newsletter..... Zakaria Bakkali.... a superstar is born !

Wednesday August 7th

Two matches previewed below, I will cover the US and Brazilian matches in a follow up newsletter at 14.00 UK time.

Several of you have asked about outright bets for the Conference National which starts this weekend, I do not have a long term selection this season, as nothing stands out to me, but as already indicated, I am very keen on two Premier League bets, especially one at a double digit price and will forward both next Friday, August 16th. I expect a lot of transfer activity over the next ten days, so want to leave them as long as possible.... just in case !

France League Cup: Angers-Racing Club Lens

Angers were very pleased with their three points and four goals at Istres and now get their home season underway with a League Cup match with Lens. Ahead of the Friday night victory I wrote ....Angers have been top seven in four of the last five years and were top three last season with six rounds to play and are targeting another push at a promotion spot.  They have lost Claudiu Keserü ( 30-17-2) which is obviously a huge loss and Férébory Doré (34-3-6) has also left, they had already signed Khaled Ayari (14-4-0 ) in the January transfer window to play in that secondary striker role and were pleased with him, so the loss of Doré should have less impact. Experienced striker Jérémy Blayac ( 21-6-1 for Tours lasts season in an injury hit campaign, he scored nine the previous season) has joined and with playmaker Alharbi El Jadeyaoui (34-4-10) who had the most Ligue 2 assists last season still at the club, he will get a lot of chances to add to that tally this season. They also signed left winger Ludovic Gamboa (29-9-5) from Laval and I am very keen on him, to contribute to 14 goals in a team who only missed relegation by two points, from just 29 starts, is an incredible return. Despite the loss of Keserü, I like this Angers team, especially if they keep El Jadeyaoui, who I understand is being courted by a couple of clubs. However, that need not worry us today, as he is in the squad, if they did keep him and Blayac had an injury free, or largely injury free campaign, the 30 yo striker could have a huge year. Three of last year's top 4 Ligue 2 strikers were with promoted clubs and something similar to Keserü's tally could win the top goalscorer award this time round.

To score four on the road without Keserü and El Jadeyaoui (who remained on the bench) was a huge boost, incredibly ,the Moroccan midfielder is in London, on a two week trial with Arsenal, so is not in the squad and unlikely to play again for Angers, with a couple of Ligue 1 teams waiting in the wings if the Gunners do not take up the option. He would be a long term loss of course, but they would have money to play with in the transfer market and it should not make too much difference this evening. Only 19 yo midfielder Sofiane Boufal is missing from the starting eleven against Istres, he was replaced after an hour by Charles Diers, who looks likely to start this evening. Angers have gone with the following squad (players in bold type started the last fixture)...

Angers: Alexandre Letellier, Grégory Malicki ,Arnold Bouka Moutou, Jérémy Henin, Djibril Konate, Vincent Manceau, Romain Thomas ,  Charles Diers, Rayan Frikeche, Ludovic Gamboa, Diego Gomez, Ismaël Keita, Pape Macou Sarr, Jonas Pessalli,  Khaled Ayari, Jérémy Blayac

Lens also won their opener 1-0 at home to newly promoted CA Bastia on Sunday, which means two days less recovery time and they start their season, where promotion hopes are high, with three matches inside six days, they face a tough looking trip to Dijon at the weekend, which should be their priority and are clearly looking to make more rotation than the hosts....

Lens: Alphonse Areola, Rudy Riou ; Ludovic Baal, Jean-Philippe Gbamin, Ahmed Kantari, Loïck Landre, Nicolas Saint-Ruf ; Wylan Cyprien, Pierre Ducasse, Lalaina Nomenjanahary, Edgar Salli, Pierrick Valdivia ; Jérémie Bela, Pablo Chavarria, Adamo Coulibaly, Dème Ndiaye, Yoann Touzghar.

Patrick Fradj is injured and new coach Antoine Kombouaré has chosen to leave Jérôme Le Moigne, Danjiel Ljuboja and Alaeddine Yahia behind in Lens, that trio are three of the only four outfield players aged 30 +, which I do not think is a coincidence, it is probably wise, but robs them of a lot of experience. The visitors are a very big club by Ligue 2 standards, 27,377 watched their first game of the season ( under 1,000 were at Istres !) and they have to put in a strong promotion push this time round, the cup will surely be low priority, which looks the case judging by the squad they have named and I have to take a little on the hosts. 1.25 units Angers -0.5 ball 2.20-2.25 general quote.

UEFA Champions League: Zulte Waregem- PSV Eindhoven

PSV won the first leg 2-0 which gives them a nice cushion for the return leg which is being played in a "neutral" stadium in Anderlecht. Quite how they only scored two in the first meeting was something of a mystery, their build up play was very impressive and they created chance after chance and it looked like men against boys, or in Champions League terms, master verses pupil. You can watch brief highlights of PSV's many opportunities on this link (Preview) .
This is Zulte's first ever CL appearance and it was a bit of a wake up call, all the euphoria of playing in the best club competition in the world has disappeared and hopes of turning the tie around this evening are very low. Attendance in Brussels is expected to be under 6,000 in a stadium which hold 4-5 times that and 40% of them will be supporting PSV.  Zakaria Bakkali took a lot of headlines after the first leg and PSV look to have unearthed another gem, the fact that he is Belgian makes it just that little more painful. The 17 yo looks the real deal and is also prepared to do his share of defensive work, here is a compilation (Preview) of his huge contribution from the first leg.The visitors arrive with the same squad which won 3-2 at ADO Den Haag at the weekend, where they were 3-0 up in little more than 30 minutes and then went to automatic pilot, with the second goal for the hosts coming in the 94th minute.
No injury problems for either side, but Hernán Hinostroza of Zulte, who was on the bench last week, has gone home to Peru for family reasons. The "hosts" are having a lot of off the pitch problems, latest came earlier this week, when Thorgan Hazard handed back the captains armband just 24 hours after being given it, following complaints from supporters at his appointment. The board and coach are in dispute and these are not happy times at the club.

Hard to see this as a home fixture for Zulte and it will be a surreal atmoshere inside the stadium, the "hosts" will have to gamble sooner or later and push forward, giving even more space for the visitors and I can see the big Belgian defenders having an equally torrid time this evening as they did in Eindhoven. Hope PSV go with Bakkali, who will out to impress in his homeland and I am sure a full international call up will not be far away for the teenager. 1.5 units PSV -0.75 ball 1.96 asian line/Ibramarket.

Zulte Waregem: Bossut, De fauw, Colpaert, Verboom, Malanda, Habibou, Hazard, Leye, Berrier, Trajkovski, N’Diaye, Vandenbroucke, Naessens, Skulason, Conté, Duplus, Godeau,  Bruzzese, D’Haene, Crimi.

PSV : Tyton, Zoet, Rekik, Marcelo, Bruma, Arias, Willems, Brenet, Maher, Toivonen, Schaars, Wijnaldum, Hiljemark, Matavz, Locadia, Jozefzoon, Depay, Bakkali.

Good Luck.

Tuesday August 6th clubgowi newsletter ...

Tuesday August 6th

There are a couple of UEFA Champions League matches I like this week, but all are tomorrow, so just the Capital One fixtures today.

All teams played their opening League match at the weekend and most will be rotating their squad to some extent.

The idea to wait for the opening exchanges to play out today, did not work out well, but I have discussed four matches any way.

Bristol Rovers- Watford

Watford were impressive in a 1-0 win at Birmingham City on Saturday, they already seem over any playoff hangover from last season and look stronger this time round, almost all the loanees from last season have been signed on a permanent basis and further depth/quality has been added. The signing of Lewis McGugan from Nottingham Forest looks especially good business. Rovers have been hugely unlucky with injuries and have started the season missing nine players, they could not name a full bench for the 2-1 West Country derby loss to Exeter City on Saturday and the six they did nominate, were all aged between 17 and 19, with five coming from the U18 squad. They are very likely to go with the same line up this evening and the last thing they need are further injuries, priority for them will be the league visit from Scunthorpe United this coming weekend and to try not to lose too much ground until their treatment room clears. The visitors will surely rotate their big impressive squad and any coming in will surely want to make an impression. I want circa 2.10 for Watford -0.75 ball and odds are currently 1.99, but could drift pre kick off, or early in the match, is so, they would be a 1.25 unit selection.

Shrewsbury Town- Bolton Wanderers

These two met here in pre season 17 days ago, the visitors were leading 3-1 with 25 minutes to and looked very comfortable and had missed several chances to score a fourth, but then took their foot of the gas, made some changes and the match ended 3-3.  The hosts had no real answer to Chris Eagles and Marvin Sordell, who were running riot upfront, Eagles picked up a knock on Saturday and will miss out, Sordell has since moved on to Charlton, but David Ngog and Craig Davies will be pushing for starts after featuring from the bench at Burnley, whilst new signing Andre Moritz will be looking to make his debut.Dougie Freedman has said he would name his strongest available eleven and tended to take the competition very seriously at Crystal Palace, several of his team looked in need of game time, something we touched upon yesterday, so I think we can take the manager at his word and they could do with a win, ahead of games against Reading, Forest, QPR and local rivals Blackburn Rovers before the end of the month. They did not win in pre season and having opened with that draw at Burnley, they would surely like to break their duck and build up a little confidence, going into that tough sequence of games. Hosts tried to address defensive weaknesses in the summer and do look a little stronger at the back, but boss Graham Turner has called this a transition year and upfront, despite the goals in pre season, they look short of options and the loss of on loan striker Akwasi Asante, leaves them with 20 yo John Marsden ( who made his debut in the 0-0 draw with MK Dons on Saturday) and 21yo Tom Bradshaw ( no goals in 21 appearances last season) as the recognised strikers, which is simply not good enough. A committed Wanderers should win this. 1.5 units Bolton Wanderers -0.5 1.96 asian line/Ibramarket.
Wycombe Wanderers-Leicester City

Hosts are the closest league club to me and I usually get to watch them a couple of times per season, last time was when they hosted Bradford City late last season and we got a lot of winners out of that match, including City in the playoff final. After the 3-0 home defeat to the Bantams I wrote ....City scored very early, the hosts came on strong for 15 minutes or so, but after that it was pretty much one way traffic, I am loathe to write anyone off after one bad day at the office and Wanderers have been playing well enough previously, but this was men against boys, the hosts had trouble stringing passes together and, not for the first time when I have seen them, made some odd tactical decisions. I was also surprised that losing and creating virtually nothing (they were coming up against a watertight City backline), that they made little use of the bench, which kind of implies a shortage of options to me. City hit the woodword around the hour mark, if that had gone in, they might have scored five.

WW recovered from a terrible start to last season (bottom 3 entering November) to finish in 15th place, boss Gareth Ainsworth is going to have to use his contacts in the game well in the loan market, if the Chairboys are to better that. Money is tight and he has had to reduce the size of his squad and lost the services of several Premier League loaness, which helped them at the end of 2012-13, keeper Jordan Archer from Tottenham was hugely influential and they lost 10 from 17 without him. The squad is very short of depth/experience with ten aged 20 or younger. Ahead of the campaign Ainsworth made it clear expectations were limited and that he "would be happy to improve upon that 15th place". They opened with a 1-0 home win over Morecambe and that was deserved, but the visitors did hit the woodwork and introduced a lot of debutants. Wycombe included four players 20 yo or younger, including two in the backline and facing the very speedy City front players Dyer, Nugent, Schlupp, Vardy etc, three of whom did not start in the win at Middlesbrough, they could be in for a long evening. Hosts tend to leave big gaps at the back at Adams Park, especially down the flanks and I have seen it year after year (they won more on the road last season), it is not such a problem when they get in front early, as they can sit back, like on Saturday and play mainly on the break, but chasing or taking the game to opponents, they struggle. I could see City scoring three or four here, as if they get in front, they will get a huge amount of space and have the players to exploit it. Boss Nigel Pearson is going to make limited rotation as he feels the game will do them good, especially as their weekend fixture as been pushed back to Sunday. 1.5 units Leicester City -1 ball 2.20 asian line/Ibramarket.
Brentford- Dagenham and Redbridge

London derby, Bees will surely use their squad and we are likely to see Ben Nugent, Stuart Dallas, Paul Hayes, Javi Venta and Sam Saunders play some part. Saunders will be up for this against his former club, he is very good with set pieces and with Daggers showing a weakness in defending these at Fleetwood in their opener, this could be a route to goal. The visitors already have a skinny and very young ( only one player older than 26) squad, a few injuries and lack options to rotate too much, even if they wanted to, but with money very tight, they would see a run in any cup as potential much needed revenue. The Bees should have too much for the East London side, but the current odds do not make much appeal. I am hoping that once the home line up is announced, they might drift a little pre kick off or early in play (-1 ball 2.05 ?) and then we could bet. Saunders is 4.0-4.5 to score anytime which makes some appeal, he will take any free kicks around the box and maybe a penalty, depending who is on the pitch at the time, this could be key, referee Patrick Miller is "lucky"for the Bees, they have won the last 5 games he has taken charge of with a 13-2 goal difference and in those, he has awarded five penalties, two in one game twice !

Good Luck.

Monday August 5th clubgowi newsletter

Monday August 5th

 

Internacional finished the match with nine men, so we probably have to be happy with the draw, but there were a lot of debatable decisions made in favour of the hosts by the match officials.

Internacional

New England gave away a goal ( and it was a complete gift) in the opening two minutes and dominated the other 92 minutes or so, but couldn't put the ball in the net, on another evening they would have scored 3-4, they are a handful going forward as you can see from the highlights below and we will get this money back in the next week or two.

Revolution

I could find nothing to interest me today, but the Capital One Cup games tomorrow look full of promise and personally I will be getting quite heavily involved in those and probably the Champions League matches too. I am going to send the email at the later time of 11.00 (UK) as at least two of the matches involve fixtures where the team I want to back will be rotating their squad and I am hoping that the oddsmakers/general public will misread this as weakness and I want to let any early betting exchanges take effect.

As we have a little time, I can say a few words about each of how long term selections performed over the weekend....

Bolton Wanderers

Wanderers got a hard earned point at Turf Moor in what was a typical North West derby. Hosts had the better of the first half, but after the break, I felt if either was going to win it was Bolton and Freedman introduced Ngog and Davies to try and take all three points, but it was not to be. Beckford (especially), Lee and Wheater looked a little off the pace, we did not see Moritz, improvement to come.

Brentford

Brentford took the lead and then gifted an equaliser shortly after. The Bees dominated the game and had a lot of chances after the break, being denied by the woodwork and some good defending, if they play like this on the road all season, they will probably be champions. Easiest way to describe the performance is by these comments from the Port Vale fans forum...

Those who say there is no difference between Leagues 1 and 2 should have been there. Brentford kept the ball well and had two outstanding attackers.

Very impressed with Brentford and don't think we'll see many better teams at VP in the league.

Brentford really impressed me. They were organised, always seemed one step in front of us at times and were very dangerous on the break.

Good learning curve today against very good opposition and can definitely see the improvement in quality in the division.

Very pleased with a point. Brentford were a crossbar away from playing in the Championship this season and it showed. Their ball retention was excellent - something which we must learn from them.

Got to be happy with that, against a very good team who will be there or thereabouts at the end of the season.

How many times did they run in behind us into threatening positions?

They were much better than us. A point gained.

Overall a very good point against a very good side .

Those are from about the first 30 or so write ups from home supporters who had been at the game, if the opposition supporters praise a team, you know they have done well, when it is universal, it is obvious that the quality has stood out. More to come from the Bees.

Colchester United

United started with a 1-0 win at newly promoted Gillingham. This was impressive as neither Pappoe ,Olefumi or Watt started, the hosts had chances to have won, but Dickson looked very accomplished on his debut and could be a huge signing and in goal, Walker was never going to be beaten and along with Eastmond, the trio looked a class apart. With tired legs on both teams, United introduced pace off the bench ( which they have in abundance... see the pre season preview) and Drey Wright ( who provided the winner) and Gilbey changed the game. Good win, two exciting players on the bench and another three who did not take part at all (Watt was injured), incredibly promising, win or lose 5.50 to finish top half and I know a lot of you got on (which was a big surprise to me), was a joke price !

Fleetwood Town

Coasted into an early 2-0 lead and then stepped off the gas and allowed Daggers back into things at the end of the first half and the home boss felt his team were being disrespectful to the visitors and allowing them too much space, he gave his team a hard time out the break and they were much more disciplined in the second half. Maybe he was a little hard as seven players and the entire backline were making their debuts and they are only going to get better. Jon Parkin was injured and did not feature.

Oxford United

United won 4-1 at Portsmouth and sent their huge travelling support ( maybe as many as 2,800) home very happy. Alfie Potter had two goals and two assists, Dave Kitson, David Hunt and Tom Newey all made their competitive debuts for the club.Potter was said to be "unplayable", but the overall contribution from Kitson, who worked incredibly hard, might say more for the future and he has clearly "bought into" the project, he was switched to go man on man with Simon Ferry and marked him out of the game. Portsmouth were poor, a bit of a shambles at the back and lacking creativity, so I would not read too much into this just yet, but Chris Wilder won the tactical battle by an even bigger margin that his own team and the signs are good for both of them, less so for Pompey and Guy Whittingham.

Good Luck.

Sunday August 4th clubgowi newsletter

Sunday August 4th

Decent day yesterday and all our long term selections started with solid results, wins for Fleetwood Town , Oxford United, Colchester United and good points for Bolton and Brentford, with only Town playing at home.

I am only previewing three events today, two football matches and a look at the final round of the WGC Bridgestone Invitational, where I am very keen on my selection.

MLS: New England Revolution-Toronto FC

Wins for both Chicago Fire and Houston Dynamo last night, who are direct competitors with Revolution for one of the Eastern Conference playoff positions, has put the pressure on the hosts to follow suit this evening and with a trip to second placed Sporting KC up next and visit from an on fire Chicago (see what I did there !) to follow, they will be desperate for the three points. They are coming into the game with back-to-back wins for the first time since winning three in a row at the end of May, I was particularly impressed with the road wins at Columbus Crew and DC United as they rotated heavily for those two matches and coach Jay Heaps now has a lot of options at his disposal . Up front, what looked an offensive line short of experience through early season, is now one full of potential, 18 yo Diego Fagundez (18-7-4.... improving on a daily basis) and 23 yo Dimitry Imbongo (9-3-0.....three goals in his last five appearances) both scored in DC. Fagundez has scored in the last two and they are his first goals since scoring in four consecutive games, he is obviously "streaky" like most strikers and you know I love an inform frontman ! One of those goals came when the teams met here at Gillette Stadium on May 25th, Revolution won 2-0 with 20 yo US International Juan Agudelo (11-4-1) scoring the other. Both goals came from crosses in that game and that could be key again today, the first via a Chris Tierney ball which set up Fagundez, in recent starts left sided back/wingerTierney (17-3-3) has been forced to hold back a little more , but he set up the equaliser last week and the introduction of left back Kevin Alston from the bench ,who has been injured since March, allowed Tierney to get far further forward.

Coach Hicks spoke about this after the game:“He’s exactly what we needed—a shot of energy. He’s been great all week in training and up to this point in two weeks of training,” Heaps said. “He’s been itching to get on the field and you could see when he came on he was like a shot out of a cannon.“We needed a player and we needed an outside back, we needed cover and you saw how it changed tonight when we were able to get Chris up by bringing on Alston. “It’s an awesome story,I know he’s going to make an impact on our team, it’s almost like a signing and a lot of the players feel like we added a really excellent outside back.“In the second half we really wanted to get Tierney in some better spots. We switched Saer Sene to the other side to give ourselves a bit more width because he naturally wants to come in so we pushed him wider. “We found the little gaps. I thought Dimitry had a nice finish and Saer really should have had two goals.”

Toronto also arrive on the back of a win, only their third in 34 starts, following a 2-1 come from behind win over Columbus Crew at BMO Field ( where they had not won in over a year). last week, they were trailing with seven minutes to play and it seemed a most unlikely win at that stage. They conceded again, just two cleansheets in 36 starts and it is very hard to see them keeping one this evening. The visitors are still missing strikers Danny Koevermans and Robert Earnshaw (17-6-0) and are set to be unchanged despite the signing of Swiss defender Jonas Elmer this week, they look toothless offensively and are facing the meanest defence in the MLS (just 19 goals conceded) where 21 yo right back Andrew Farrell, who was first overall draft pick in 2013, has been a revelation. So much potential in the hosts, who are only going to get stronger. Home win. 1.5 units New England Revolution -0.75 ball 2.03 asian line/Ibramarket.
Brazil Serie A: Gremio Porto Alegre - Internacional

The visitors look in good shape for this, they get both midfielder Andrés D'Alessandro (9-2-2) and left back Fabrício (8-0-2.... conceded 11 goals in the last five matches he has missed) back from suspension, they both sat out the 3-0 loss to Nautico, as did star striker Leandro Damião, who scored the winner at Sao Paulo three days earlier, he trained with the squad this week and will surely play. Also in action on the training pitch were two new signings, striker Ignacio Scocco ( six Copa Libertadores goals for Newell's OB) and midfielder Alex, who has returned from Al-Gharafa. The squad worked behind closed doors for two days, with coach Dunga trying out several formations and he and the visitors have used their free midweek well to fully prepare for this game. Centre back Índio (3-1-0) also returned to training this week, he is available if required  and it is all positives for Inter, who could go second with a win. Hosts lost at Corinthians in midweek, so have had far less preparation time, they also picked up knocks to Zé Roberto (10-2-1) and Eduardo Vargas (6-3-0) neither of whom will play tonight, defensive midfielder Adriano (8-0-0) is said to be starting by coach Renato Groucho, but he has been unable to train and has only done very limited jogging this week. Inter have scored 14 times in their last nine visits (although none were in the new stadium), but one tonight looks likely to earn them at least a share of the spoils and I like them with the draw no bet option.

1.25 units Internacional level ball 2.05 asian handicap/Ibramarket.


WGC Bridgestone Invitational
You can view the leaderboard and follow the action "in running" on the WGC website.

Tiger Woods is seven shots ahead of the field and this is all about the "best of the rest" and the market "without Woods" we are focusing on.

There are some good players and email favourites in Scott, Johnson and Stricker at -3/-2, which is "only" 5-6 strokes off second spot, but whilst I would not rule them out completely, they have a lot to do today, to pass the seven quality golfers between themselves and Tiger.

I am also "eliminating" Henrik Stenson from my portfolio, he can most definitely win and is favourite from this position, but I priced him at circa 3.70 in my 100% book and that is virtually a full point more than his general quote and I have to look elsewhere.

My strongest idea is Luke Donald, who has had a terrible season by his own very high standards, he missed the cut on his last two starts, the Open and Canadian Open and that is virtually unheard of for this most steady of golfers. However, he showed hints at a return to some form just before that at the US Open, that and this, is an event far more suited to his game and he has played well this week and been solid with the putter. Coming into this season, I made a case for Donald being the best, or at least most consistent, R4 player on the planet, he was ranked #2 on Tour in 2012 and #1 in 2011 and rarely disappointed in contention. He finished 8th here last year and T2 in 2011, shooting a final day 66, which is what we are looking for today. There is no pressure on any of the chasing guys today, they have no real chance to win,  but I feel that will especially help Donald who can just concentrate on his game and not worry about winning. He has made a lot of birdies this week (16) and if he can find a little more accuracy with the irons, he could go very low today, with the perfect game for Firestone.

I am going to have a small cover bet on Bill Haas, who like Donald is also on -6, two behind Stenson. Haas has made fewer bogies than anyone this week, but has not holed a lot of putts, that is ironic as he was in great form with the flat stick coming into the event. If he can sink a few today and he said he "felt really good with his putter" on Friday night,  he will go close ( to the runner up spot).

1.25 units Luke Donald "without Tiger Woods" 7.0 + general quote ... there is 7.4 on Betfair for limited liquidity.

0.5 units Bill Haas "without Tiger Woods" 7.0 +.... there is a little 8.0 on Betfair.



Good Luck.

Saturday August 3rd clubgowi newsletter #3

MLS:

Team news and the way these fixtures have panned out has not been kind, so I am sticking with one game, I have a lot of ideas for tomorrow and we are already involved today, so am happy to leave it at that.

Philadelphia Union-Chicago FireBit of a dilemma here, I am keen on Fire for this, I think they now match up very well against Union, who won a pair of back to back meetings between the teams earlier this season. Since when of course, Chicago are much changed and improved with their new additions (Bakary Soumare and Mike Magee), despite their continued inability to keep a clean sheet, which we have discussed a lot in recent weeks and that sequence is now up to eight in MLS starts alone . They get another new player tonight with Ecuadorian international Juan Anangonó, who's paperwork has now been completed. Anangonó described himself as "fast, strong, and good in the air and a player that can finish well ,while having the ability to adapt in any formation. " He definitely doesn't lack confidence and said he can play alone up front or in a two , or 4-3-3, he looks a good fit with Mike Magee and/or Chris Rolfe, who are both very mobile.

Whomever plays up front tonight, could get a lot of joy, Union have been guilty of a lot of individual errors recently and gave both Chivas and Houston a huge amount of space at the back to exploit, neither really made that count, but Fire have the movement to do so. The visitors only poor performance in the last two-three months was the 3-1 defeat at Vancouver and we highlighted their big defensive problems ahead of that. Goalkeeper Sean Johnson (17 conceded in 14 starts), is back from international duty now and that is another major boost, Soumare only joined Fire from Union after the second meeting and will be able to give the low down on his former team mates.  Hosts will be without midfielder Keon Daniel (17-0-1), they have only beaten Chivas in five starts without Daniel and are 1-3-5 when he plays 20 minutes or less.

Fire need a result as they are still five points off the play off spot and that is a priority, they have the offensive ability to press and draw this Union defence all over the field , so what is the dilemma ? Fire have a home MLS Cup semi final in midweek and with it a shot at Champions League football. However, they look set to field a full strength team this evening, so I have to go with this, but have reduced stakes slightly.

1.25 units Chicago Fire +0.25 ball 2.06 asian line/Ibramarket.

Good Luck.

Saturday August 3rd clubgowi newsletter #2

J-League 11.00 (UK time) kick offs... stats based half time update

The opening 45 minutes have not played out ideally , for example, I was hoping that Vegalta-Kawasaki would be all square.

Shimizu SP off level ball at big odds look interesting and we should see more goals in the Reysol game, but we are already on the hosts there. Cerezo look a possibility at a shad of odds against.

I will just take a very small interest (0.75 units) on Shimizu 2.40 level ball, which seems too big.
Albirex Niigata -Shimizu S-Pulse

Albirex : 13 goals in their games before the break, 35 after, they are a dismal 0-1-4 at home when trailing at the break, but have won 3 from 4 when level.

Shimizu : 5-1-3 on the road in the second half, where they have drawn both games in which they trailed.

Cerezo Osaka -Ventforet Kofu

Cerezo : 5-3-1 at home after the break.

Ventforet : Have scored a league low six second half goals.

FC Tokyo -Oita Trinita

FCT: This is an odd one, FCT are 6-0-2 in the second 45, with six cleansheets, but have lost both in which they have conceded, 1-0 both times.

Oita : The worst SH team in J-League 0-7-11

Jubilo Iwata - Nagoya Grampus

Jubilo : Iwata have lost 3 from 4 at home when level, but taken points in 2 from 4 when behind.

Nagoya : Have kept just one second half clean sheet on the road, lost 5 of those and 4 from 5 when level at the break.

Kashiwa Reysol -Sagan Tosu

Kashiwa : Yet to draw a second period.

Sagan : Their matches have produced 18 FH goals, a whopping 53 after the break, they have lost a league high six away second halfs , drawing both of the two games where they have led at the break.

Shonan Bellmare -Yokohama F.Marinos

Shonan : No stats of note.

Marinos : No stats of note.

Vegalta Sendai-Kawasaki Frontale

Vegalta : Drawn 11 second halfs, six at home, only 11 goals scored after the break in total from 9 home starts, when level at HT 3/4 have ended the same way.

Kawasaki : Scored a league high 24 SH goals, only failed to score once and also only kept a single cleansheet. 0-0-5 when losing, but 2-1-0 when level at half time.





Good Luck.

Saturday August 3rd clubgowi newsletter #1

Saturday August 3rd

We already have three previews for this afternoon, which were written on Thursday and they are all reproduced below, just the one additional selection at the moment.

I will send a J-League half time stats update (like in midweek) for the 11.00 (UK) kick offs at about 11.50, very basic, but I use it myself anyway, so you might as well have it.

There will be a follow up email @ 13.00 with the focus on the overnight MLS football and maybe one other event.
This afternoon, I am 95% certain that I am going to the Reading-Ipswich match (see below) and have contacts at Port Vale-Brentford, QPR-Sheffield Wednesday and maybe Millwall-Yeovil Town, so will try and send a line or two about a couple of these at half time (15.50), for anyone who is interested .

Championship: Reading-Ipswich Town

I think the Royals are very short odds today, they are perennial slow starters, even in their Championship winning season of 2011-12 they were second from bottom after losing four of their first six matches, did not win until November 17th last season and they have not won on opening day for seven years.

Boss Nigel Adkins is a bit of a fitness freak and works his players incredibly hard in pre season, this sometimes takes it's toll early season, teams can be over trained and are then lethargic through the start of the campaign , before getting the benefit later in the season, this is something we have discussed previously, in particular with Guingamp in France. Whilst at Southampton, his team were 1-1-8 through their first ten Premier League matches, with the new signings perhaps struggling to adapt to this.

Some of the Reading new additions have failed to impress in pre season, where the Royals have underperformed in losing to both Bristol clubs and were thumped by Swansea City here at the Madejski recently and if we have hit upon the likely reason, then the early start to the campaign, two weeks ahead of last season's schedule, is further against them.

Anyway, Town have largely breezed through an unbeaten pre season, with a series of impressive performances, admittedly against lower league opposition. However, they have got the winning habit under Mick McCarthy who has turned the club around in double quick time, when he took charge last November, Town were bottom of the Championship with a 1-4-8 record, they won 15 times after that and secured mid table safety. MM is not a Premier League manager, but he knows how to get out of this division and has taken both Sunderland and Wolverhampton Wanderers up to the top flight. His Town team look a little stronger this time round and might be able to push for a playoff spot, they will definitely be tough to beat, new signings include midfielder Jay Tabb from Reading, Scottish International centre back Christophe Berra and defensive midfielder Cole Skuse ,who are exactly McCarthy's type of player. Upfront, David McGoldrick who scored 20 goals in 35 L1 and Championship appearances last season, has made a permanent move, along with Paul Anderson of Bristol City who at just 24 is looking to re-kick start his career after being really well thought of at Liverpool as a teenager, he showed glimpses of that in a very poor City team last season and could be a  good addition.Ryan Tunnicliffe and Frédéric Veseli have both joined from Manchester United where MM enjoys good relations, or did with the previous management.

Of the three summer signings for Adkins, defensive midfielder Daniel Williams is injured, Wayne Bridge is not getting any better at 32 yo, but to be fair did play virtually a full season for Brighton, the first time he has played more than 23 league games in one season since 2003-04 (!) and Royston Drenthe is reportedly overweight and doesn't enjoy training much !

Hosts have not scored a home goal in five matches and whilst they could have a good campaign, they were way off top flight quality last season and may take a little time to adjust back to Championship football and refind some confidence. 1.25 units Ipswich Town +0.5 ball 2.12 asian line/Ibramarket.

Good Luck.

Friday August 2nd clubgowi newsletter #2

My plans for Saturday are still a little undecided, but the first email will be ready at 09.30 (UK

time) and I will confirm follow up times then.

J-League Saturday August 3rd

Kashiwa Reysol- Sagan Tosu

Shonan Bellmare- Yokohama F. Marinos
Two of these teams met in midweek, with Reysol scoring a late equaliser to earn a share of the points in Yokohama, we previewed that match and a lot of the content is pertinent, so I have reproduced it in full, at the foot of the email. Both teams missed good chances in that game, but Kashiwa will be the more pleased with the result and will be looking to follow up with all three points today. They have three very win-able fixtures in a row now and a chance to close in on the top three ahead of their AFC Champions League double header with Al-Shabab and provide a safety net, in terms of next year's competition, should that not go well.

Reysol rarely do things the easy way, they have not kept a clean sheet at home this season and Sagan's backline has conceded in every away game and 15 times in their last five in all competitions, but also scored in 8 of 9 road starts, so this clearly promises goals. However, when the dust has settled, I think the most likely outcome is a home win and feel that offers slightly better value than the "over" 3.5 goal line. Playmaker Leandro Domingues Barbosa (14-5-2 all comps) returned to action in midweek after 11 weeks out, he played 73 minutes, will come on for that and provided there is no reaction, will surely take part today. I was both complimentary and a little cynical about him in the preview(s) below, but his hard work has been missed and they play at a better tempo when he is in the team. Home win.

Shonan recorded a shock come from behind win at Kawasaki Frontale in midweek, the hosts are tough to beat once they get their noses in front ( previously 7-0 when leading at the break). I watched the second half and feel that Frontale sat off too much and allowed Bellmare back into the game, but they took their chances and looked very dangerous on the break. On loan Brazilian keeper Alex Santana made his debut after his paperwork was finally completed and was in outstanding form, he saved a penalty and inspired the entire team, who he spent the entire second half shouting at, I have no idea if they understood him, but he is not built like the kind of guy you would ignore. The team fed off his performance and also their travelling support, which despite their lowly position, arrived in great and noisy numbers.They had a 5-0 win over Malaysia in a friendly a few days before that, which means nothing, but I feel it gave them a little confidence, defensively they are much improved from early season, conceding 11 goals in their first six, 13 from their next half dozen starts and just 7 from their last six and Santana looks a very good signing. I still have my concerns about Yokohama (see below) especially with such a quick turnaround. The two teams have met here already, Marinos winning 1-0 in the League Cup, but the hosts rested a handful of players for that and look more suited to J-League competition now. Win or lose, I like the quote .

1.25 units Kashiwa Reysol -0.75 ball 2.11 asian line/Ibramarket.

1.5 units Shonan Bellmare +0.75 ball 2.11 asian line/Ibramarket.

Urawa Red Diamonds- Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Urawa will be buoyed by their come from behind win at Jubilo Iwata in midweek, where they trailed with seven minutes left to play ( ouch !). Ahead of that I wrote that "it (the break) has not enabled Urawa to get injured defensive midfielder Keita Suzuki ready in time, they have lost both matches he has missed this season ( conceding seven goals in the process) and conceded immediately after he left the field injured in the previous match."

To get the win without him and from that position, against a team unbeaten in five was huge and they must have travelled home in high spirits. The visitors are unbeaten in nine and lead J-League by three points, but Urawa won in Hiroshima on opening day and are 8-1-1 in the last ten h2h meetings in Saitama, so will not fear Sanfrecce. Home boss Mihailo Petrovic
was in charge of the visitors for five and a half years and implemented and knows better than anyone, the system/style of football they play, he will have taken a lot of pride from their title win last year, but will not want to sit back and watch another, Urawa can close to within two of the leaders with a win.  Hiroshima arrive on the back of a 3-1 win over Omiya Ardija, but that was flattering IMO, Omiya missed a lot of chances before equalising in the 74th minute and were clearly in the ascendancy then, when the match turned in 60 seconds with a free kick and red card.1.25 units Urawa Reds -0.25 ball 2.11 asian line/Ibramarket.

Good Luck.

Yokohama F.Marinos- Kashiwa Reysol  (written July 31st)

We spoke about Reysol, who let us down badly in a 2-2 home draw with Shimizu just before the two week break.....

I have discussed the hosts quite a lot this season, especially around their Champions League campiagn, last time was ahead of the Confederations Cup break when I wrote ...

Kashiwa Reysol once again paid the price for giving too much in an AFC Champions League match they did not need to win last midweek and have not really mastered the art of holding a little something back for domestic fixtures and as good as they have looked in the international competition, they have been equally woeful in J-League at times. They have conceded 20 goals in their last 8 starts ( three or more in five of those), including nine in their last three halves of football. Sandwiched inbetween were three wins, but they came against Sagan Tosu and Jubilo Iwata teams hopelessly out of form and the third was against a Yokohama F.Marinos side who were in that "dip" in form we have discussed several times recently.

Reysol are a good team and were expected to challenge for a top 3 place at least, but now they are already well off the pace and a point is not going to help them very much, they need to gamble for the win and the problem at present, is that when they do, the floodgates are more likely to open, especially against the stronger J-League teams. Their six losses have come against teams with an average league placing of 6.67 and all were by at least a two goal margin.

Reysol look set to be without Leandro Domingues Barbosa (13-5-2 all comps), he did not play at the weekend and they miss his technique and industry. They do still have top scorer Masato Kudo (20-12-3) and Cleo ( 18-6-2) as an offensive threat, but the ongoing loss of both starting full backs in Wataru Hashimoto( not played this year, but 38 starts in 2012), Masato Fujita (11-0-4) is a concern for me and there is a danger that 23 yo Kudo might be distracted by his first ever international call up this week, for Japan's World Cup qualifier with Australia. He will not want to miss out and the young striker has already openly stated that his priority for the year is the CL.

This is traditionally a high scoring match up and four of the last six league meeting have produced at least four goals, it is easy to see this following suit, however, I have just heard that right back Chang-Soo Kim (14-0-1) is also out for the visitors, missing Fujita and two offensive players on that side, they are very short of options on that flank. I expect Reysol to regroup over the break and come back committed to the J-League campaign, at least until the CL restart.

They have won their last two and showed plenty of spirit to beat Kashima Antlers at the weekend, albeit with a large slice of good fortune. Striker Cleo (14-7-1 in J-League) scored both and looks refreshed by the break and he, Masato Kudo (16-9-2) and Junya Tanaka ( 14-3-8) are a potent offensive trio.

Playmaker Leandro Domingues Barbosa should miss out again, but he has only played two league games since early April and they lost both by a combined 7-1 scoreline, so maybe that is a good thing ! A bigger loss is suspended centre back Naoya Kondo (16-2-1).

Domingues is still injured, but Kondo is back from suspension and with both SSP goals coming from crosses that is a relief.

Hosts have been in great form, beating Omiya Ardija and Urawa before the break and Manchester United 3-2 in a friendly last week, but and there is always a but ( or an however), they have not kept a cleansheet in six starts and have had to come from behind in five of those. That augurs well for team spirit and their battling qualities, but they have also ridden their luck at times. Also the "age" of some of the home players continues to worry me, this is something we touched upon earlier in the season when I wrote ...Not that they ( Marinos) have done too much wrong, infact, they have a 100% record so far this season, but two things about that, they are the first team since 2004 to win their first six starts and that puts them under a lot of pressure, also, last week, at home to Frontale, they looked really vunerable for the first time, needing a 90th minute winner to claim the points. Four very key players in this team are not just the wrong side of 30, but at least mid and in two cases late 30's. No injuries has meant little rotation in these areas and whilst that has been good so far, I feel it might come at a cost somewhere down the line (today ?). The backline is largely unchanged through six games and with an average age of almost 33, might start to be increasingly vunerable, on the one occasion they did look to switch things around resting one, they conceded twice and brought him off the bench late in the game.

They lost that 1-0 and drew at home to Ventforet last week, with still no changes to that back four and key striker 37 yo Marquinhos Araujo (7-6-1) who is very much the focus of their attack, is not 100% to start this week. However, of equal/maybe even a bigger concern to me was that after being in control YFM looked to run out of steam and hand the initiative to Kofu and if not the age, the age combined with the lack of rotation, would be a worry for me if I was a Marinos supporter.

Even with the break it has been a tough schedule and despite the famous victory, I feel that Dutra 39 yo, Nakamura 35 yo and Marquinhos 37 yo might have been better off sitting that one out in steamy, very sticky conditions. Apparently Shunsuke Nakamura ( 17-4-5), who has only missed four minutes of league action this season, or a start at all in ten months picked up a knock and is doubtful, they have won just one in 9 when the former Celtic star doesn't play at least 45 minutes.

Reysol should be better rested, losing just once in eight visits and scoring seven goals in the last three. I have to take them with the draw on our side 1.25 units Kashiwa Reysol +0.5 ball 1.93 asian line/Ibramarket.