Sunday, February 03, 2008

NFL ... SUPERBOWL XLII ............


Patriots are looking to become the first team in history to go 19-0 in a single season. They have rewritten the record books already and their total points, touchdowns, Brady's 50 td passes and Moss' 23 td receptions, are all the best we have ever seen.

The Giants have set a record of their own and their 10 straight road wins in one season, is unlikely to ever be beaten.

These two met in the final game of the regular season , the Giants led 28-16 before Brady rallied New England to a 38-35 win. That has been indicative of recent Patriots wins, which have been a little more workmanlike, than what went before. They have lost their last 5 and 7 from 8 games "against the spread", New York have covered in their last 5.

Twelve points + is a very big handicap to overcome and NY have come together as a team, Eli Manning has shaken off his nerves and has not thrown an interception in the post season. What a family double it would be, if he could emulate brother Payton's win in last years finale.

Underdogs have a decent record in the "World Championship", winning 12 times and it is a toss up handicap wise, with the favourites winning ATS in 21/41 Superbowl's. Giants and the points for me.

5.5 points New York +12.5 points Vegas line 1.91.

I like a couple of specials too...
Let's start with Randy Moss, he has never shown his fantastic best in the post season, in 6 playoff appearances, he has yet to register more than 4 receptions and over 90 yards receiving, only once. Hills have his over/under total receiving yards set at 90.5, Ladbrokes have done their homework and have it at a full 10 yards less. Given his playoff record, under is clearly the way to go.

4.5 points under 90.5 yards 1.83 Hills.

Pinnacle have put him in a handicap match bet with Plaxico Burress and the NY receiver gets a 20.5 yard start, which looks huge. Moss has a single reception in each of this year's p/o games, averaging 16 yards, in his 3 games Burress' average is 5.3 receptions and almost 66 yards. In the previous meeting, Moss had a great day, with 100 yards, but Burress managed 84, so would still have been a handicap winner. This looks a strong bet, Moss, as usual will come in for special attention, so is as valuable to the team as a decoy and might not see too much of the ball.

5 points Burress +20.5 points 1.87 Pinnacle.

Finally, a tiny bet on any Giant to score two or more touchdowns, if this turns into a shootout, it is a huge price. It happened in the earlier meeting, in 2 of their 3 p/o games and in 4 of their last 5 starts, so no forlorn hope.

2 points any New York player to score two touchdowns 3.62 Pinnacle.

Most of these bets will be offered elsewhere, so shop around.

Good Luck.

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