A quick look back at the weekend, for the second time in just four days a game involving Peterborough failed to produce a third goal to clinch the "overs" bet, after two came inside the opening 15 minutes in both, very frustrating ! It was still a good week overall for subscribers, but those two made a very big difference to the bottom line.
Much better news on the NFL where we are a perfect five from five after three weeks of the new season and the team we bet outright at 25-1 remains also unbeaten and are now trading at significantly shorter odds.
I have some brief notes to share about a couple of today's games, where we have a very busy programme both in Europe and domestically .........
BARNET - DAGENHAM & REDBRIDGE
LINCOLN CITY - NOTTS COUNTY
I am approaching these two games from very similar angles. The two visiting sides have been creating chances for fun and whilst the ball has not always fallen for them at the vital time, especially in the case of County on the road, I expect both to get far more chances than their less prolific opponents.
Since we discussed Barnet's paucity of goalscoring attempts before the Macclesfield game, they have collected just two points from three starts and had to come from behind to earn a fortunate point in two of those. Daggers, despite selling a host of players in the summer, have only lost once all season and remain a real offensive threat, they are creating an average of almost six chances on goal more per game than their London rival and that should be enough to see them home tonight. They are set to be unchanged and with this fixture normally producing goals, they are far better equipped to win a shoot out.
County and Lincoln only have one draw between them in 18 league starts this year and it seems likely that we will see another positive result for one of them tonight. County have not won on the road since their first away day, when they put four past Macclesfield way back in mid August. However, it is not as though they have sat back, or not created chance after chance away from Meadow Lane, they have dominated possession and created more in every start, which, given the quality of player at their disposal, is as it should be. The Sol Campbell saga is now at an end and I think that is better for all parties concerened. It is time for County to start winning on the road, they average 7.67 attempts more per game than City, who have lost their last three starts by two or more goals, a similar outcome would not surprise me tonight.
Lincoln have made an eyecatching managerial appointment with Chris Sutton set to take charge after this evening, he will be in the stands and the home players will be out to impress him, but it will take time and more than simply his appearance at the stadium to turn things around. However, it might push the odds on County up a little, which is perfect for us.
6.5 points Dagenham level ball 1.95 asian line.
7 points Notts County -1/2 ball 2.05 asian line.