I have finished those J-League notes earlier than expected, team news and previews of four of tomorrow's matches, I will forward them at exactly 18.00 UK time.
Check your inbox.
Good Luck.
Friday, June 29, 2012
Thursday, June 28, 2012
THURSDAY : CAN I HAVE A "P" PLEASE BOB ?
There was a definite P theme going on with Portugal, Paszek and Pironkova !
There was also a very special offer to sign up to the service long term, at an incredible rate, a sum so low it would have been possible to win it by investing a few euros on the selections from just that one email .
I also laid out my plans for the rest of the week, two selections today, the remaining Euro 2012 semi-final and one match from Wimbledon, where I have a strong opinion on each and .....
FRIDAY 29/06:
Email to be sent @ 10.00 UK time Content: Wimbledon tennis, Irish Premier League, MLS football
SATURDAY 30/06:
Email #1 to be sent@ 09.00 UK time Content: J-League football
Email #2 to be sent @ 11.00
UK time Content: Wimbledon tennis, MLS football ( where I have some very strong news)
SUNDAY 01/07:
Email to be sent @ 11.00 UK time Content: Euro 2012 Final, Brazil Serie A, Irish Open Golf Round 4, PGA Tour Golf Round 4.
In the meantime, good luck !
Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com
Wednesday, June 27, 2012
WEDNESDAY : YOU KNOW IT MAKES SENSE !
A LOT of you also got to see a copy of my daily notes today, as I sent out a host of free copies, I wrote this about the morning J-League fixtures.....
J- LEAGUE :
Just a few notes and some team news about the J-League games which kick off at 11.00 UK time today.
FC TOKYO - KASHIWA REYSOL
Injury
problems starting to build up for Tokyo, starting defender Kosuke Ota
is out and key midfielders Yohei Kajiyama
who left the field injured at the
weekend and Maohiro Ishikawa who has missed the last two starts are
both big doubts, the pair have 34 starts with five goals ( two of only
five squad players with more than a single J-L goal) and seven asists
between them are going to be sorely missed if they fail to make it,
especially as fringe midfielders Otake and Tanabe and also unavailable.
No
such problems for Reysol, infact, they are boosted by the return from
supsension of Tatsuya Masushima, the central defender is one of the
first names on the team sheet and will be very motivated returning to
the club where he started his career.
Both
will probably look to win this game in hand as three points would take
the hosts up to 3rd and Kashiwa, who are
defending
champions, possibly into seventh, the visitors
look to be cranking up through the gears and have taken 13 points from a
possible 15. Tokyo were terrible in a loss to Yokohama after the break,
before beating Cerezo Osaka at the weekend, but their opponent had
played three times since the return to domestic football and were a
little drained. If you see confirmed news pre kick off and Kajiyama and
Ishikawa both miss out, I would be very keen on Reysol.
There are normally goals when these two meet, last 20 h2h matches have averaged 3.75 goals, with both teams on the scoresheet on 38 of the 40 occasions in that sequence, both teams have finally found some goals in recent weeks and this trend looks set to continue. Three points would take Nagoya into the top 4 and Gamba, who have finished top 3 in seven of the last eight seasons, to within one point of safety at the foot of the table, they currently trail Omiya by four points and have a tough sequence of fixtures on the horizon .
For Gamba key right sided defender Akira Kaji remains out, Grampus are still without midfielders Isomura and Nakamura, but that have had only limited playing time this season, Keiji Tamada( 3 goals, 3 assists) missed the last two games and is a doubt along with Danilson the Columbian holding midfielder.
Nagoya would like to win, but even at this stage of the season, it is starting to look vital for Gamba to get something from this one. If Tamada and Danilson miss out for the visitors, the hosts might take all three points, but it won't be with a cleansheet. Goals look very likely.
Kajiyama and Ishikawa both failed to make the line up and Reysol won 1-0, who scored I hear you ask .... Tatsuya Masushima !
Goals came in the Gamba- Grampus match, four in total, three inside the opening 25 minutes .
The info on these three games are not even official selections , the daily notes are a "must have" if you are betting on a regular basis....... come on guys, you know it makes sense, take the plunge, before it is too late !
Good Luck.
Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com
Tuesday, June 26, 2012
US OPEN CUP ....
The US Open Cup game tonight between San Jose Earthquakes and the Seattle Sounders
looked good ( really good) when I first looked at the fixture last week, hosts are playing
at San Francisco's Kezar Stadium (see photograph) which is almost a neutral venue and
have not played a home game of any sort in 38 days. They have just
completed a four game road trip, which included trips to Colorado and
Slt Lake in the last six days, if that was not bad enough, at the
weekend, they have what is being hyped up as the biggest game in recent
history, when the Western Division leaders host current champions and
resurgent LA Galaxy at Stanford Stadium, the match is set to be a 50,000
sell out, only a few tickets remain and is being nationally televised.
It is being called the Bay Area sporting event of the summer ( not sure about that !) and gives
this Lamar Hunt cup quarter
final tonight low priority, we should see plenty of rotation from the
"hosts".
No fear of Seattle not taking the
competition seriously, not only are they the current holders of the cup,
but they have won it three straight years and are looking to make it four in a
row. The Sounders are desperate for a victory of any sort after going
seven MLS starts without a win, following a very promising start to
their campaign during which they won seven of their first nine matches.
I would be ultra keen on them tonight getting a 0.25 handicap start in
asia, BUT they played at Portland on Sunday night, the Earthquakes in
Salt Lake on Saturday, so the benefits of playing a strong line up, are
offset by the fact that those players will only have had a single rest
day between games.
That, and the fact
that confidence is low within the Sounders camp is enough to stop me
putting it up as
an "official" selection, however, they will come good sooner or later
and these cup games have a very different feel from MLS fixtures and the
visitors do have players coming back from injury. Michael
Gspurning and Adam Johansson are on the verge of recovering from their
injuries and Patrick Ianni and Leo Gonzalez are both back, which will
strengthen the defense Steve Zakuani is easing back into his first
appearance
of the season, having already made the squad against Sporting Kansas
City last midweek and we might see a couple of these tonight. On the
Sounders website , coach Sigi Schmid said that the team doesn’t need to
undergo any sort of overhaul to get back on track.“The pieces are
here. We played with quality last year and we
played with quality at the beginning of the year this year,”
I
have to pass, but if "pushed"could only go with Sounders, as
Earthquakes have such a massive game ahead, a fixture which is huge in
terms of the whole future development of the franchise.
However, I do have two red type selections for today .....THE REST OF TODAY'S NOTES ARE RESTRICTED.
Good Luck.
Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com
Sunday, June 24, 2012
HAPPY HOUR ! ...... SCROLL DOWN TO BOTTOM OF POST
A really big day in prospect, two emails again, in this I will look at tonight's Euro 2012 match between Italy and England and also give my early thoughts on Wimbledon, where I have a big odds selection that I really like and a strong bet from the overnight South American fixtures. The follow up email should be with you by 12.00 UK time and that will include a look at Round 4 of the Travelers Championship and probably one more late night football game, where I am just waiting for some confirmed team news.
EURO 2012: ITALY - ENGLAND
WIMBLEDON : LADIES SINGLES OUTRIGHT
I am going to ease myself into the Championships and just start with one outright bet.
The draw was made Friday and has set up a really interesting Ladies Singles. French Open champion Maria Sharapova has plenty of potential banana skins in her section, she will probably need to beat Pironkova and Lisicki just to make the quarter final and in the other half of "section 1, are Kerber, Makarova, Clijsters, Jankovic and Zvonareva. Masha was very focused on getting that Roland Garros win on her CV, the only "missing" grand slam and I doubt she is as well prepared for grass as in previous years, anyway, given that and the draw, she is WAAY too short in the betting for my liking.
Section 2 contains a lot of evenly matched players and about as dangerous a floater as you could have in five time champion Venus Williams, I did have a feeling that we might see a big run from Agnieszka Radwanska this year, she is a two time quarter finalist and was also a Junior Champion at Wimbledon and enters these championships with her highest ever world ranking of #3. She is a working man's price of 65.0-70.0 on the exchanges and could go deep but will have to hit the ground running with Venus a potential Round 2 opponent and Hantuchova and newly crowned Unicef Open champion Nadia Petrova also in waiting.
Serena Williams will probably be happy with her place at the top of Section 3 and she could play herself into form, she has a potential semi final with last year's winner Petra Kvitova and although both Williams sisters are a complete law unto themselves and I would never entirely write either of them off, they are staring to look their age ( sorry girls!) in tennis terms, Venus will be 33 next month, Serena 31 shortly after and even if that were not the case, the focus this year for both, appears to be the Olympics, which is all either has really spoken off all season, anyway, like Masha, she is too short for my taste. Kvitova is a fair price IMO at circa 7.0 and if she finds anything close to the level she played at last year, she will go close, but the pressure of being defending champion will be huge and only the Williams sisters have managed to repeat since 1996. Of course, with nine titles between them, they have not given anyone else much of a chance !
The bottom section contains another very dangerous floater in Eastbourne champion Tamira Paszek, she is still only 21, made the Junior final here as a 15yo and the quarters last year, also in the upper half of this section is Marion Bartoli and this pair can give anyone huge problems on this surface. However, ........
REST OF THE PREVIEW IS RESTRICTED
BRAZIL SERIE A:
PREVIEW RESTRICTED
Good Luck.
EMAIL #2
I
was very pleased with my notes yesterday, aside from the France defeat
of course ! The J-League team news was very useful and I will definitely
be giving more of this in the coming weeks and we had a cleansweep on
the MLS games, not only that, but San Jose scored those two goals and LA
Galaxy the three. But I was especially pleased with the Philadelphia
Union preview, having been strongly against them last week, it would
have been easy to simply write them off this week.
I
am passing on the two remaining MLS fixtures this weekend and ...... NOTES RESTRICTED
PGA TOUR
TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP: LEADERBOARD
-12 DAVIS 9th in 2011 with a final round of 66
-12 THATCHER
-10 ROLLINS 2nd in 2011 fr 63
-10 DRISCOLL 5th 2011 fr 67
-10 APPLEBY
-9 HARRINGTON
5th 2010 fr 64
-9 KUCHAR
-9 CLARK
-9 HOFFMAN
-9 CLAXTON
-9 JACOBSON won in 2011 fr 66
-8 four golfers including Bubba Watson won in 2010 fr 66 and 14th in 2010 with a fr 63
-7 four golfers including Webb Simpson 13th 2011 fr 69
19 golfers within five strokes of the lead and the tournament is still wide open.
I
do not think I have seen a tournament where so many golfers with good
and recent previous form on the course, are in contention on Sunday. I
have put those outings alongside each golfer in blue type.
Davis,
Thatcher and Driscoll have still to claim that all important first PGA
Tour win and nine second place finishes between them, indicates a clear
inability to get the job done, until they force their way across the
finishing line, I would be loathe to put them up as potential winners.
Appleby
is a prolific winner, but will not be improving at 41 yo and has not
been in any kind of contention for almost two years, a 21st place finish
is the best he has managed in 31 starts and whilst he could win, I
prefer to look elsewhere.
Padraig Harrington
has shown definite signs of running into form in recent weeks, not least
when 4th in the US Open last week, but he has now played three weeks in
a row, which is a lot of golf for him and last week was TOUGH! Also, he
has played the last six holes in -1 this week, which is
six strokes more than Kuchar and Clark and although he looks a winner
in waiting, it might not be this week.
Watson
,Simpson and Kuchar are recent winners, but the first two named have a
lot of golfers in front of them, Simpson won last week and whilst he
holds his form well, the huge media attention as the latest major winner
will surely have taken it's toll, Watson has played the last six holes
in one over par, most of the leaders are circa -5 or better and it is
hard to see him making up four strokes on eleven + golfers all of whom
are playing the closing holes better this week.............
REST OF THE PREVIEW IS RESTRICTED
To receive full daily notes , delivered to you by email each and everyday ...... contact : gowi8@btinternet.com HAPPY HOUR(S) TODAY SUNDAY 16.00-20.00 EMAIL FOR DETAILS !
SUNDAY MORNING .....
Contact : gowi8@btinternet.com
MLS
These clubs are used to clocking up the air
miles, a coast to coast game involves an 8,000 km round trip, but I
think several of the teams will be feeling drained tonight, on what for
some is a third start in a week and coming directly after a break, when
some players will also have been away on international duty, both the
break and/or international fixtures are a big disruption to schedules
and training.
PHILADELPHIA UNION- SPORTING KANSAS CITY
We
discussed Philly last week (see below) and I was very keen to oppose
them against DC United and the visitors won 1-0 , but it was close and
DC coach Ben Olsen said about Union “They were good. give them a lot of
credit. I thought their energy was
good, I thought their soccer was better on the night. ... But at the end
of the day it’s about winning games.”
Piotr
Nowak was actually fired before the game, this lifted the mood and the
players responded for interim coach John Hackworth, who said "If
we play that way every week, we’re gonna win a lot of games. So, I’m
disappointed but I take a lot of positives out of this game." He also
answered a few other questions ....
Will you stick with this lineup?“I would. I need time to think about it. I’m very emotionally charged right now as you can imagine, but I’m going to look at the tape tomorrow. My initial thoughts are that they played the way the Union wants to play. The fans want that. The front office, our ownership, they want that kind of energy. And that was fantastic, so we’ll evaluate it, see how our guys are feeling…next Saturday here I expect you’ll see a lot of the same.
Why didn’t we see Gomez? Was it because he was away at WC qualifying?Partly. He got hurt in Dallas. He never fully recovered from that injury with the national team when he was with Panama. He got released yesterday afternoon; he didn’t play. He has not played a game since Dallas, which is quite a long break, so if the game had presented itself and there was an opportunity…but obviously when you get behind, and we had all the momentum, I didn’t think there was a way they would get down near us. I thought either we were going to give up a foul but they got it, and that was that.
What were your emotions like before the game?“What a great day all the way around. The fans were fantastic; the players were awesome beforehand. It was a great night for the Philadelphia Union in a lot of ways. And I was excited. I was confident, relaxed…At this point my job becomes managing the game. We prepared…the players need to know what they’re doing and I thought they did, and they went and tried to do that, and so, it was all good."
Will you stick with this lineup?“I would. I need time to think about it. I’m very emotionally charged right now as you can imagine, but I’m going to look at the tape tomorrow. My initial thoughts are that they played the way the Union wants to play. The fans want that. The front office, our ownership, they want that kind of energy. And that was fantastic, so we’ll evaluate it, see how our guys are feeling…next Saturday here I expect you’ll see a lot of the same.
Why didn’t we see Gomez? Was it because he was away at WC qualifying?Partly. He got hurt in Dallas. He never fully recovered from that injury with the national team when he was with Panama. He got released yesterday afternoon; he didn’t play. He has not played a game since Dallas, which is quite a long break, so if the game had presented itself and there was an opportunity…but obviously when you get behind, and we had all the momentum, I didn’t think there was a way they would get down near us. I thought either we were going to give up a foul but they got it, and that was that.
What were your emotions like before the game?“What a great day all the way around. The fans were fantastic; the players were awesome beforehand. It was a great night for the Philadelphia Union in a lot of ways. And I was excited. I was confident, relaxed…At this point my job becomes managing the game. We prepared…the players need to know what they’re doing and I thought they did, and they went and tried to do that, and so, it was all good."
This is about the
most positive I have seen any side after a home defeat and it is clear
that with Nowak has also gone a big weight off the team, forward Antoine
Hoppenot was denied by the woodwork at a key stage and he said “It’s
nice to see a positive offensive showing, we always knew we could do
it. We knew we had the
skills and players to be a force on offense. It doesn’t come to a
surprise to us and a great show for the fans to see and hopefully next
game we will score two or three.”
Plenty to
take out of the game and the new coach has had a free midweek and seven
days to fully focus on this game. Kansas were at home last week, went to
Seattle in midweek and now all the way over to Philly, that is pretty
gruelling, key players Matt Besler and Bobby Convey have been moved up
to "Questionable", but a place on the bench is the most either can
probably expect and they are likely to be given a little longer recovery
time. Nagamura is also a doubt and options look limited in midfield.
Think a draw is likely here, the only two h2h meetings have ended all
square and that is a result which probably both could accept, but I will
take 1.25 units Philadelphia +0.25 ball 1.88 asian line, as I smell an upset home win.
LA GALAXY- VANCOUVER WHITE
CAPS
Finally LAG have awoken from a very long
slumber and claimed two wins in the last seven days and will be looking
to complete the hat-trick tonight, the win at Real Salt Lake was
impressive as the hosts came into the game on a long unbeaten run.
Galaxy's backline is beat up and continues to look vunerable, but keeper
Josh Saunders return coincided with the upturn in results, even so, at
present, you have to feel they need two, maybe three goals to ensure
victory. They will be boosted in that respect by the seven unanswered
goals they put past Vancouver in doing the double over them last season
and whilst the visitors are much improved, they are very much a home
team and have managed only five road goals all season. Robbie Keane has
returned from Euro 2012 action and looks set to return to the line up.
Hosts have three from four on the road after this and this is a hugely
important game in terms of the rest of their season,
they have a good record historically in the third of three matches
inside a week and I expect them to follow up against a team who despite
their high placing, are still very much one in transition. LA Galaxy -0.75 ball 1.91 + asian line, there is some 3.75 for LA to score 3+ which looks attractive, but not freely available.
REAL SALT LAKE- SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES
These
two both score and concede a lot of goals, averaging 3.25 between them
across their last ten starts and the last two h2h meetings have both
produced four goals. San Jose have scored nine in their last five on the
road and in each of their last ten in all competitions. I was keen on
the "over" here, but Real conceded three to LA in midweek, blowing a two
goal lead and might be short on confidence after
that, which was a bit of a shock to the system after six matches
unbeaten in the league, but they also conceded three recently at home to
lower league opposition in the cup. Earthquakes have had several huge
boosts this week with the return of goalkeeper Jon Busch from
suspension, the signing of former Columbus and
D.C. United right back Jed Zayner and return from long term injuries of
defender Victor Bernardez and
midfielder Shea Salinas, they kept four cleansheets in a row with
Bernadez in the team and allowed over 1.6 per game in his absence. Let's
try two bets..... 1.25 units San Jose +0.5 ball 2.04 asian line and if
it is available to you 0.75 units @ 3.25 for SJE to score two or more
3.0 + is good, if not, then you can upgrade the straight asian bet a
little.
Good Luck
PHILADELPHIA UNION- DC UNITED
Hosts
are up against it here, they have not won in five MLS starts and have
conceded five in their last two home starts, against teams with arguably
a lesser potent attack than United, who
are the league's top scorers and out for a little revenge after Union
beat them in a US Cup match just ten days ago ( 2-1 after extra time in
Maryland). That was an ill tempered affair, which saw the red cards fly ,
Ben Olsen the DC coach rounded on his players after that, for what he
described as an unacceptable performance. Olsen was probably the
greatest player in the club's history and the current crop will be
embarrassed that he was so angered by that showing. That have won their
last three league starts and scored 20 goals in their last eight
starts.They have defender Robbie Russell back tonight and should have
their trio of strikers Chris Pontius, Maicon Santos and Dwayne De
Rosario with 17 goals between them, all back in the line up. Three
points will
ensure they stay top of the Eastern Division.
This
is a fixture that usually produces a lot of goals. With the last four
MLS meetings all seeing at least four, but it is hard to see Union
contributing too many this evening. For a start, they have been pretty
toothless all season, scoring just eight and tonight they miss their
suspended top scoring striker Lionard Pajoy. They have brought in Jorge
Perlaza from Portland, but it cwas at the cost of another and perhaps
more promising forward and the Colombian's strike rate of six goals in
44 starts is not going to strike fear into too many DC defenders. This
is just the latest in some very strange decisions by Union coach Petr
Nowak, who for some unknown reason got rid of Sebastien Le Toux, captain
Danny Califf, and now Danny Mwanga, he is said to be looking to move
overseas and obviously wants to sell the crown jewels before he goes !
The rats are leaving a sinking ship, two teams
heading in different directions and the better one has a little revenge
on it's mind. 1.5 units DC United level ball 1.98 asian line.
Saturday, June 23, 2012
UPDATE ....
OK, the second email has just been sent, 15 minutes late, sorry about that, my typing skills let me down again ! Three match previews and four selections including one at odds of 3.25 that I am hugely keen on, please check your inbox asap.
Good Luck.
Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com
Good Luck.
Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com
SATURDAY ....
SATURDAY JUNE 23rd
Only
football today, spread across two emails, in this, just a quick look at
the Euro 2012 match and some info about the late morning J-League
fixtures. The second email is far more interesting, it will contain a more
detailed look at tonight's MLS games and at least two selections (still
considering a third ) and some strong information.
Sunday
looks especially promising, I will be taking a look at the Wimbledon
outright markets, the final round of the PGA Tour event, England-Italy
and the overnight fixtures from North/ South America, where if the odds
hold up, I am extremely keen on one match up in particular.
EURO 2012 : SPAIN - FRANCE
Spain
have been a bit of a
disappointment for me at these Championships, they have been slow and a
little unimaginative so far and really struggled to break down Italy
and Croatia, you do not have to worry too much about width from the
Spanish, so a disciplined, two banks of four, with play very compacted
has so far proved enough to frustrate them and they do look vunerable on
the break. Of course you do not see too much of the ball against them,
but you know this going into the game, the introduction of Navas, along
with Croatia's need to look for a goal changed the last group game, the
Sevilla wide man gave them far more options, but Vicente del Bosque ( yes, that's him in the photo) is
not one for changes and I suspect we will again see two holding players
which they do not need, lots of pointless passes, a very slow tempo and a
whole host of talented players warming the bench. Fernando Llorente
must be wondering what he has to do to get a least a little game time,
neither he nor Juan Mata have had one
minute on the pitch, they must be jealous of Negredo who has exactly
that... one minute and Cazorla and Martinez are two others with very
limited playing time.
I am not sure that France
can put in the kind of disciplined performance we saw from either Italy
or Croatia, they don't really have the mentality for that, at least not
for 90 minutes, but they seem sure to make consessions by bringing in
another defensive midfielder and they certainly pose more of an
attacking threat than either of those two tams. It appears that Spain
are worried about Franck Ribery especially and Alvaro Arbeloa looks a
really good match up for the Frenchman, who should have plenty of joy
cutting inside, providing he sees enough of the ball. We
have seen little from Karim Benzema so far, but he also matches up
pretty well against Gerard Pique and Sergio Ramos ( whom he knows very
well) I expect those three
will be seeing plenty of each other this evening.
Much has been made of the bust up in the French dressing room after the
dismal showing against Sweden, but little about the ongoing conflict
between several in the Spanish camp, Pique and Ramos have been "going at
it" for sure and there is always some conflict between the Real and
Barce camps, a situtation which dictates much of del Bosque's team
selections. I think France will score ( France goals -0.75 2.03
in asia) and am quite keen on this match going into extra time, although
just one in six draws at the knockout stage of the last three major
championships puts me off backing the straight draw. I also get the feeling this
might be Benzema's night, but let's keep things simple.... France +0.5 ball 2.14 asian line is my pick for very minimal
stakes.
J-LEAGUE
Nagoya Grampus- Jubilo Iwata :
Hosts
have a very good record in this fixture 5-3-0 in last eight h2h
meetings and could be meeting Iwata at just the right time.
The visitors are without two big talents in midfield and much of their
creative threat, Korean Baek Sung Dong is injured, in the last six
matches he has started, he has two goals and six assists, his team had
scored 19 goals in total and were unbeaten in four, before losing 3-1 at
home to Kobe last time out, after he was stretchered off. Hiroki Yamada
his fellow midfielder is suspended and he has six goals and four
assists in 14 starts. Two huge losses. Jubilo have alreday conceded 14
road goals in
seven starts and with their "we will score more goals than you" policy,
look up against it today. Hosts have to win this if they are to get
into contention at the right end of the table. Opening morning line saw
Nagoya at 2.03 they have drifted to circa 2.20, which is a bit of a
concern. No bet for me, but I do think that Jubilo will struggle to
continue their free scoring ways.
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Currently, by taking out a subscription to the email service, you can get all the remaining June and July daily notes for free, for details...... contact : gowi8@btinternet.com
Wednesday, June 20, 2012
WEDNESDAY .....
WEDNESDAY JUNE 20th( written 09.00)
England won , Zlatan landed our top goalscorer bet ( see below) and the only thing wrong in the email yesterday was that I didn't put Tsvetana Pironkova up as an official selection. Pretty sure that we will be betting at the Aegon International tomorrow, but I am going to leave the tennis for today.
I hope that some of you took the big odds on ........NOTES RESTRICTED .........
................................................................................................... at such huge odds it is a very exciting bet and I do not speak in those terms very often.I do have
some other news about their plans, but let's wait until ..... NOTES RESTRICTED
We are down to eight teams in Euro 2012 and they all get a day off from the action today, but we have plenty of other games to interest us and I am going to bet a couple of them.
MLS: HOUSTON DYNAMO - TORONTO FC
We discussed Houston on Saturday, when I wrore ....
This is the big "Texas" derby and
the hosts have had the better of meetings in recent years, with a 5-3-1
record in Houston and they currently hold the 19th-century Civil War
replica cannon ( !), that these two clubs play for every season, just
one scheduled meeting this season, so the cannon is on the line tonight !
This will be the first meeting between the clubs in Houston's brand new
home, the BBVA Compass Stadium, they have taken seven points and kept
two cleansheets from their three games in the Arena, all matches which
like tonight, have been played in front of sell out crowds. Also, the
stadium and especially pitch have been laid out to give the hosts every
advantage, just us you would expect and hope. The grass is a particular
variety of bermuda that they favour and the pitch is very small and a
couple of teams have already complained about this, officially it is
around 8% smaller than Dallas' home field, but many suspect it is even
more compact and the crowd are very much on top of the playing surface
making it appear even smaller and more intimidating. Their reasons for
this and they have been quite open is that, their most valuable asset
Brad Davis who was runner up in the MLS MVP voting last season, to
Dwayne De Rosario btw ( see above), is a dead ball specialist, producing
fantastic deliveries from corners and free kicks, the reduced field
means that he can deliver more of these and to an even greater degree of
accuracy.
They beat Dallas 2-1, remain healthy, with just a couple of fringe players out , stay on home soil and that "small" pitch to face woeful Toronto this evening, the visitors flew into Houston directly from Kansas where they lost 2-0 and it looks like most of them headed out on the town, three got into a brawl at a nightclub and were arrested, if that was not humiliating enough, one tried to run away and was easliy chased down by the local police ! Not too much intelligence, or speed shown there, if the Houston PD can catch him, other MLS players should have no problems !
Those three ( Luis Silva, Nick Soolsma and Miguel Aceva) are out pending the investigation and with four already injured/ very doubtful, Toronto, who have lost ten of their eleven starts, conceded an average of 2.6 goals per game on the road and lurch from one crisis to another have very few options tonight, especially for a second tough road game inside four days. Home win. 1.5 units Houston Dynamo -1 ball 1.95 asian line.
The other MLS games tonight do not overly inspire me, but the weekend games do and I always like the third of these three games in a week fixtures, with some weak squads in the MLS.
COPA LIBERTADORES: CORINTHIANS- SANTOS
PREVIEW RESTRICTED
Good Luck.
EURO 2012 : TOP SWEDISH GOALSCORER
Erik Hamren promised a more attacking and creative style when he took over as coach and we have seem glimpses of that and they certainly look to have more goals in them, at both ends of the pitch. Eventually Zlatan too bought into the concept and announced a return from his self imposed exile from international football in 2010. Hamren promised him the captaincy, freedom and open football. They played a kind of 4-2-3-1 through qualifying with Zlatan upfront, but have recently gone more 4-4-2.
The only real swedish superstar didn't play in the 3-2 win over Netherlands and all the talk about whether Sweden are a better team with or without him resurfaced. This year they have played more with Ibrahimovic in the playmaker role and with Elmander or Toivonen in the more advanced position. This hasn't reduced Zlatan's goal threat, he has scored in the last three matches and has more time on the ball and what is certain, is that he is coming into a major championship with no health issues for the first time in ages and coming off a huge season with 28 goals in 32 Serie A starts. He scored twice in both the 2008 and 2004 finals when he shared striking duties with Henrik Larsson, he looked incredibly sharp in the recent game with Iceland, albeit against weak opposition, but really on top of and enjoying his game, I expect him to have a good ,potentially great, tournament and will be hugely surprised if he doesn't end as top Swedish goalscorer and am delighted to see prices above 3.0 for this. I make him a solid bet. 1.5 units Zlatan Ibrahimovic to be top Swedish goalscorer 3.50 + .... there is a little 4.0 around.
Contact : gowi8@btinternet.com
Tuesday, June 19, 2012
TUESDAY ....
Below are part of my daily notes, sent to subscribers this morning, no official tennis bet today, but I did discuss one match, just one, Pironkova won in straight sets, beating the world number 3 for the loss of only six games. Read the notes, if you were looking for a bet today whilst waiting for Euro 2012, it was surely obvious that odds of 5.50 were way too big.
I did put up one official bet for tonight in that email and then sent an update mid morning with a bet at 50-1 + (there was some 66-1 around), that looks to offer huge value and which I urged subscribers to back. This is a solid bet, with a very realistic chance of winning.
Seriously, this service is incredible value for a couple of euros per day and there are still over 40 days worth of free emails ( all of June and July) available to anyone taking out a subscription.
TUESDAY JUNE 19th
We
have a really interesting week ahead with all four Euro 2012 quarter
finals, a round of Irish Premier League fixtures, two full rounds of MLS
matches , which have been good to us in recent weeks and some South
American games, where I have two strong ideas, one in midweek and the
other at the weekend. In addition, there is quite a bit of grass court
tennis around this week and on Sunday, I will be taking a look at some
of the outright markets at Wimbledon, we will also be following, as
usual the PGA Tour event. So, something for everyone !
I am going down to
Eastbourne to watch the AEGON International (WTA)
tennis today, so am hopeful of picking up some info to help us in the
next couple of days and/or at Wimbledon, I am very drawn to the Agnieszka Radwanska- Tsvetana Pironkova
match today, we were on Pironkova at big odds to beat Venus Williams at
Wimbledon last year and she did so for the loss of only five games and
then also took the eventual champion Petra Kvitova to three sets and 30
games in the quarter finals. She showed some decent form at Roland
Garros beating Yaninia Wickmayer and then pushing Francesca Schiavone
all the way and to be honest, I was very surprised by the circa 5.50 for
the Bulgarian to win today. However, Radwanska is a player I expect to
go really well in the next week or two and she holds a 8-1 h2h record
over her opponent, including two wins at the All
England Club,
the first was really close, the second very comfortable, so I am happy
to pass and just watch today, but I cannot agree with the massive odds
for the outsider, as I think first time out for both on grass, 3.75 or
similar would be closer to the real odds, anyway, no bet for me, but if
you wanted to waste a few euros on Pironkova, I would not attempt to
stop you !
Good Luck.
Contact : gowi8@btinternet.com
URGENT....
Please check your inbox immediately, I have just seen something very interesting and found a huge value 50-1 + selection, that I urge you all to back.
Good Luck.
Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com
Good Luck.
Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com
Sunday, June 17, 2012
SUNDAY .......
SUNDAY JUNE 17th
The Russia- Greece game was hugely
disappointing, if the Russians had come out , shown us 70% of what they
had on Matchday 1 and won the group, we would have been in an
incredible position on all our outright markets. After that opening
performance, it is hard to believe they are on their way home, but Dick
Advocaat made some very poor choices across all three games IMO and the
only consolation is that if they had found an equaliser last night, they
would not have won a quarter final against anyone from Group B playing
has they have for the last 135 minutes.
Luckily the day at least ending on
a high note with both MLS selections winning ( see below) and it is those results I
will try to focus on coming into a very interesting Sunday.
I am betting three football games today, one each from Euro 2012, the MLS and Brazil, with two strong bets, including my biggest individual match bet so far of the championship, available at odds of up to 2.375
I also have some thoughts for the US Open golf, but they are kind of from the school of the blindingly obvious variety.
EURO 2012:
PREVIEW RESTRICTED
MLS : CHICAGO FIRE - NEW YORK RED BULLS
PREVIEW IS RESTRICTED
SERIE A: PONTE PRETA - CORINTHIANS
Contact : gowi8btinternet.com
Hosts have forward Roger back from
suspension, which will help as they still have a handful of long term
injuries, they have yet to win this season, but recent performances in
draws against Atletico-GO, Flamengo and Figueirens have indicated that that first win is just around the corner
and they are not going to get a better chance for a while than tonight,
when a distracted Corinthians come calling, especially with tough road trips to highflying Botafogo and leaders Vasco up next.
The home coach says he is not worried, infact he is encouraged by the
quality shown recently, feeling that defensively they look solid and he
expects the goals to follow. Corinthians only have one point this season
and that is because at present, they are only interested in their Copa
Libertadores campaign. That is the only major title missing from their
CV and this is their big chance to claim it, they have effectively
rested all players for league games ahead of Copa fixtures and did the
same last week ahead of the semi final first leg with Santos in midweek,
which they won 1-0, job half done and now they have taken a B squad to
face Ponte, the only exception being Emerson, who is suspended for the
Santos return game. This is a huge game for the hosts, who have won
three of the last four h2h meetings and the least important by far of
three matches inside seven days for the visitors. 1.5 units Ponte Petra -0.25 ball 2.13 asian line. Figueirense
FigueirenseFigueirense
US OPEN GOLF :OUTRIGHT
Jim Furyk winner in 2003 and Graeme McDowell champion in 2010 lead the way at -1 and have a two stroke lead over the field
and whilst that can disappear in the blink of an eye on any golf
course, let alone one as difficult as the Olympic Club, these two know
to get this particular job done and will feel very comfortable in each
others company having played together for the first two days.
Final
round pairings have won nine of the last twelve Opens ( 75%) and 65% of
all majors in the last five seasons, this pair can be backed at close
to evens and that look value as I made them a combined 60% in my 100%
book.
These are two grinders, which is a compliment on a course like this and
it is very hard to see both slipping up and that is what is problably
needed for someone to come out of the pack at say +4 or higher ( which
includes Tiger).
Furyk
played with Tiger yesterday, beat him by five and looked composed, even
after a sluggish start, he has a mighty record on Tour posting ten wins
and seven runner up spots, on the 17 occasions he has led or tied after
54 holes.
McDowell
admits to being a nervous golfer and he probably slept a little
fitfully last night ,but he has made big improvements in his mental
approach, being a major winner has helped of course. He said he was
concerned before his round yesterday, but his "team" got him focused and
he shot a bogey free back nine, commented afterwards "I was happy that I got myself emotionally in the right
place today, probably for the first time this week, I actually
enjoyed the round of golf. It was quite nice out there." Infact, he is -6 for the last six holes this week, no other pro golfer in the top
13 of the field is better than -1, so he could have a huge advantage at
the business end of this event. So, keep a close eye on him in the "in
play" markets over the closing holes.
The
Ulsterman is 3.90 and Furyk 4.10 on the exchanges, which equates to 2.0 for the pair combined and that is my 1.5 unit selection.
Contact : gowi8btinternet.com
MLS :
PHILADELPHIA UNION- DC UNITED
Hosts
are up against it here, they have not won in five MLS starts and have
conceded five in their last two home starts, against teams with arguably
a lesser potent attack than United, who
are the league's top scorers and out for a little revenge after Union
beat them in a US Cup match just ten days ago ( 2-1 after extra time in
Maryland). That was an ill tempered affair, which saw the red cards fly ,
Ben Olsen the DC coach rounded on his players after that, for what he
described as an unacceptable performance. Olsen was probably the
greatest player in the club's history and the current crop will be
embarrassed that he was so angered by that showing. That have won their
last three league starts and scored 20 goals in their last eight
starts.They have defender Robbie Russell back tonight and should have
their trio of strikers Chris Pontius, Maicon Santos and Dwayne De
Rosario with 17 goals between them, all back in the line up. Three
points will
ensure they stay top of the Eastern Division.
This
is a fixture that usually produces a lot of goals. With the last four
MLS meetings all seeing at least four, but it is hard to see Union
contributing too many this evening. For a start, they have been pretty
toothless all season, scoring just eight and tonight they miss their
suspended top scoring striker Lionard Pajoy. They have brought in Jorge
Perlaza from Portland, but it cwas at the cost of another and perhaps
more promising forward and the Colombian's strike rate of six goals in
44 starts is not going to strike fear into too many DC defenders. This
is just the latest in some very strange decisions by Union coach Petr
Nowak, who for some unknown reason got rid of Sebastien Le Toux, captain
Danny Califf, and now Danny Mwanga, he is said to be looking to move
overseas and obviously wants to sell the crown jewels before he goes !
The rats are leaving a sinking ship, two teams
heading in different directions and the better one has a little revenge
on it's mind. 1.5 units DC United level ball 1.98 asian line.
HOUSTON DYNAMO - FC DALLAS
This
is the big "Texas" derby and the hosts have had the better of meetings
in recent years, with a 5-3-1 record in Houston and they currently hold
the 19th-century Civil War replica cannon ( !), that these two clubs
play for every season, just one scheduled meeting this season, so the
cannon is on the line tonight ! This will be the first meeting between
the clubs in Houston's brand new home, the BBVA Compass Stadium, they
have taken seven points and kept two cleansheets from their three games
in the Arena, all matches which like tonight, have been played in front
of sell out crowds. Also, the stadium and especially pitch have been
laid out to give the hosts every
advantage, just us you would expect and hope. The grass is a particular
variety of bermuda that they favour and the pitch is very small and a
couple of teams have already complained about this, officially it is
around 8% smaller than Dallas' home field, but many suspect it is even
more compact and the crowd are very much on top of the playing surface
making it appear even smaller and more intimidating. Their reasons for
this and they have been quite open is that, their most valuable asset
Brad Davis who was runner up in the MLS MVP voting last season, to
Dwayne De Rosario btw ( see above), is a dead ball specialist, producing
fantastic deliveries from corners and free kicks, the reduced field
means that he can deliver more of these and to an even greater degree of
accuracy.
Contact : gowi8btinternet.com
Friday, June 15, 2012
YOUNG ROY .....
But here is 29 yo Roy winning the first of seven Allsvenskan titles in 1976. The first two of those came with Halmstad ( bet they played 4-4-2), which, at the time was a little like winning the EPL with Wigan .
Good Luck.
Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com
THE WEEKEND STARTS HERE ......
FRIDAY JUNE 15th
I
cannot comment too much on the Italy- Croatia game as I only saw the
last twenty minutes and both appeared to settle for the point after the
equaliser, but I will watch the first 70 minutes later today. The Irish
again conceded early and it was match over from that stage, in a
complete mismatch.
I didn't see the start of the opening game, as I was at Queens Club to watch some play from the Aegon Championships,
I left before the rain came, but conditions all day were tough, very
windy, which I am told didn't really come across on television. I was
praying that Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was going to come through, as he was
really struggling to judge the wind and I wanted to oppose him today,
but Ivan Dodig beat him in three
close sets and the Croatian, who was clearly in no rush to get off court
and watch his country play, handled the conditions much better and now
meets Sam Querrey, who won this
event in 2010. The American clearly likes it at Queens Club, which suits
his big serve, but he has not played much on the surface since, missing
much of 2011 after surgery, he had a similarly close battle with Julien
Benneteau yesterday. Exchange odds are around 1.45-3.15 in favour of
the US player and whilst I would opt for Querrey if forced to choose, I
do believe it will be close and that Dodig has a chance, in conditions
which are going to be very similar, there is a strong chance of rain and
again these swirling winds of around 30km are forecast around the
middle of the day. I only saw a few games from Querrey's match, but
Dodig appeared to
handle the weather better yesterday.
The
pair have met once before at Wimbledon in 2010, Querrey came into the
game as Queens Club champion, so was clearly near the top of his game
and won 6-2 5-7 6-3 7-6, the fourth set tie break went to 22
points and so Dodig, who was performing at a much lower level then, came
very close to taking the match into a fifth set. The Croatian player
stepped up a level after that, forced his way into the top 100 and last
year made the final of a grass court event in s'Hertogenbosch, I looked
into that and the tournament was played in very similar conditions with
lots of delays for rain. I can understand why these conditions suit him,
he is hugely focused and hungry and plays every point as though it is
his last. He has a big serve, at Wimbledon he was right up there with
Querrey's which is considered one of the biggest on
tour and there will be plenty of free points for both today. but he can
mix it up more than the US player, on serve I mean and he was prepared
to adjust to the conditions yesterday, as opposed to Querrey looking to
play through them. I like the
"over" 23 games @ 2.0 with Pinnacle Sports....there is some over 22.5
games at 1.80 with two or three bookmakers which is a very similar quote. Dodig is a fighter, he has come up through the ranks and will scrap for every point today, example of those battling qualities is that he beat Rafael Nadal, 1–6, 7–6, 7–6 after recovering from 1–6, 1–3, a situation when most would have given up . He sees a big serve well, won a five setter over Ivo Karlovic and was the only player to take a set off Novak Djokovic at last year's Australian Open.
EURO 2012
ENGLAND - SWEDEN
No
real holding player for Sweden in the opener and with the suspect
defence that we discussed beforehand, they were always going to struggle
to keep a cleansheet, this gave Ukraine quite long
spells of possession, they broke quickly through Yevhen Konoplyanaka
on the left and Andriy Yarmolenko on the opposite flank and the movement
of Andriy Voronin and intellegence of Andriy Shevchenko, was the
difference between the two teams. Shevchenko got all the plaudits, but
Voronin's performance was no less valuable. Despite all this,Sweden were
unlucky to lose IMO and Zlatan Ibrahimovic looked what he is, the real class
act on show, he could have scored three, should have had two and his
clever play dragged Tymoshchuk ( charged with marking Zlatan) all over
the pitch, into positions he didn't know existed. Both Ukraine goals
came from crosses.....REST OF THE PREVIEW IS RESTRICTED
FRANCE- UKRAINE
We
have already discussed how the Ukraine goals came against Sweden and
having seen England also score from a header, I doubt their tactics will
change too much. I suspect they will be looking for a point, probably
happy to sit back, let France dominate possession and try and break, get
those balls into the box and attempt to steal a goal. France’s
midfield was good at retaining possession, but took few chances against
England, but they were content with a draw and to simple see out the
game and the frightening conditions ,especially with two games coming up
in quick succession. What they
missed was a .... REST OF THE PREVIEW IS RESTRICTED
US OPEN GOLF
Only
six of the 156 man field broke par yesterday and only one, leader
Michael Thompson ( who he ?), by more than a single stroke, I hope he
enjoys his moment in the limelight, as it will not last long !
The
top 60 plus ties and any golfer within ten strokes of the lead will make the cut, at present that would be 108 golfers ( !), which would be a
logistical nightmare and could potentially be even worse, as Thompson
will surely come back to the field.
However, we
have some very big names in danger of missing the cut, which is
currently set at +6 , including Rory McIlroy ( defending champion) and
Zach Johnson at +7, Bubba Watson and Peter Hanson +8 and Luke Donald +9,
right on the cusp at +6 are Lucas Glover ( winner in
2009), Steve Stricker, Phil Mickelson and Adam Scott.
All
of these will want to play the weekend and each will feel a little
embarrassed by their opening rounds, so expect them all to be very
focused today. Also, whilst +7 sounds and indeed is terrible, it is
"only" seven strokes behind 7th place and any under par round today,
should get you back into, if not exactly contention, then in position to
make a run over the weekend.
Some players have a history of doing this, Luke Glover opened with a 76 last year and then shot 69 in Round 2 and in his championship year of 2009, shot 64 on Friday.
The two I would like to discuss are ....... REST OF THE EMAIL IS RESTRICTED
Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com
Above is a censored copy of today's notes, the full edition runs to some 1,800 + words and costs less than a cup of coffee, if you found something of interest in the edited previews above, you would probably benefit greatly from reading the full notes on a daily basis. If you sign up, the June and July copies are free, still some 45 + copies, so delaying your decision is just costing you money.
Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com
Thursday, June 14, 2012
THURSDAY ....
Two from two again yesterday on the email service and solid news ( no bet) about a third . There are still 47 days worth of free emails up for grabs and some strong selections ( non Euro 2012) planed for the weekend.
Good Luck.
Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com
Good Luck.
Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com
Wednesday, June 13, 2012
TAKEN FROM WEDNESDAY'S NOTES .....
WEDNESDAY JUNE 13th
Let's
start today with a look ahead to the rest of the week, obviously main
focus is Euro 2012 , where we have two matches each day , we also have
Copa Libertadores fixtures and a full round of MLS fixtures at the
weekend, where I have a couple of very solid looking selections and I am
quite excited about those !
On the PGA Tour,
the US Open starts tomorrow and that will be big over the weekend, but I
will be letting the first day pass and holding off on any outright bets
for the time being. The
tournament is being held at the Olympic Club in San Francisco, which
has not hosted a tour event of any kind for 14 years and I understand
that the rough is not particularly severe, which is
unusual for an Open, anyway, I want to see how the course plays over
day one and I still expect it to be a very tough test, that should be
fun ! Since 1998 the greens have been converted from Poa Annua to Bentgrass and a LOT of trees have been removed from the course and wind might play more of a role this time round. I might well leave the tennis alone this week, the transition from
clay to grass is always difficult, but that can also be good for us ,but the
weather has been very uncertain, although it is dry and sunny
in the South East today for the first time in a week or more, so I might
change my mind about that, going to watch a lot of the action from
there today ( Queens Club).
EURO 2012 :
PORTUGAL -
DENMARK
Portugal
had a very defensive mindset for the first hour or so against Germany,
they were set up 4-3-3, but very happy to play a containing game and the
only attacking threat came from Nani and Ronaldo, with little help from
anyone else. To be honest, they defended well and must have felt that
the game was there to be won, as they had switched to a 4-2-3-1 before
the Germans scored, but it was this transition that ultimately cost
them. They played well on the front foot for the last 20 minutes and
there was plenty for them to take out of the game, just not the result !
Denmark
lost the attempts on goal count 27-5 to Netherlands, but won
1-0, they defended manfully, but very deep for the last quarter of the
game. They played a rigid 4-2-3-1, with Nicklas Bendtner a lonely figure
up front for much of the time, he is just about the most unlikely
Arsene Wenger signing I have ever seen ( !), not the Arsenal type at
all, but I digress. The two holding players in front of the back four
allowed the Dutch a huge amount of time and space on the ball wide and
if they adopt a similar approach tonight, Nani and Ronaldo will be
licking their lips in anticipation and surely, they will not be as
wasteful as the Dutch frontmen.
REST OF THE PREVIEW AND EMAIL IS RESTRICTED
Good Luck.
Contact : gowi8@btinternet.com
Monday, June 11, 2012
UPDATE ....
England - France finished all square.
Three match previews in my daily notes tomorrow, you can get them and every email for the rest of June and July free, email me for details..... gowi8@btinternet.com
Good Luck.
Three match previews in my daily notes tomorrow, you can get them and every email for the rest of June and July free, email me for details..... gowi8@btinternet.com
Good Luck.
MONDAY .....
EURO 2012 :ENGLAND - FRANCE
Never
has an England team come into a major football championship with the
level of expectation at home so low, almost no one expects them to get
beyond the quarters let alone win and coach Roy Hodgson and his squad
approach the game with something of an underdog mentality .
Hodgson
almost never changes from his beloved 4-4-2 and likes two very solid
banks of four and to try and get the ball to the front two as quickly as
possible, although that doesn't mean long ball football, but that might
well be an option if they fall behind and/or Andy Carroll is
introduced. There have not been many matches between the two near
"neighbours" in
recent years, the last was at Wembley 18 months ago when the French, in
one of Laurent Blanc's first matches in charge, gave England a footballing
lesson. The only problems the home side gave Les Bleus that night came
via big target man Carroll and, when he was introduced later, the even
taller Peter Crouch, who scored England's goal, the French were said to be
concerned about this and breathed a little easier when they realised
that Hodgson was going with Young and Welbeck as his front two, of
course, he will have the option of introducing Carroll at some stage. Wayne Rooney
is suspended for the first two matches.
The
English approach is clear, Downing and Milner wide and they have been
picked for their defensive capabilities, Hodgson said " you have to be
aware of the array of talent going forward, they are great in the final
third, the main thing is to nullify the threat they create around our
penalty area." At the back, England look fairly solid
but JohnTerry and the left footed Joleon Lescott both want to play on the left of central defence, with the Chelsea player a liability on the right.
The
weather might well be an issue, it is far hotter in the Ukraine than in
Poland where England are based and whilst it might be down to 29-30
degrees by kickoff, that could still be an issue and the English
approach of"It will be the same for both teams and it's
very important that we don't put too much emphasis on it,"is in stark
contrast to the French who will don
Cyro Jackets, containing eight pockets which can be filled with ice to
cool the body down, at half time and have been using a cryotherapy
chamber in build up and look thoroughly prepared.
Hodgson has not been given much help to be
honest, the base in Poland was chosen by Capello, it is almost 1,000
miles away from Donetsk where they play today and conditions are very
different, he also wants to play a certain way and has been given too
little time to "educate" the squad, having only been in charge for 40 days and he has spent half that time getting a hard time from the gutter press over his "speech impediment " . Injuries to Lampard, Cahill, Barry and others, plus the Rooney
suspension have done him few favours either. Walcott,
Oxlade-Chamberlain and Carroll do at least give him options from the
bench and the first two named along with Young and Welbeck do have the pace to trouble and get in behind this French backline, especially if Les Bleus get a little too confident.
You already know that I like the
chances of this French squad, they are unbeaten in 21 starts and they
are a "good age" with 17 of the 23 man squad, the "perfect"
international age of 25-30, the three older players Malouda, Evra and
Reveillere are only just outside this bracket, are hugely experienced
at Champions League level and have some 140 caps between them. Coach
Laurent Blanc made restoring confidence a priority after the Raymond
Domenech debacle and has done that with a bit of a swagger. They don't
have huge defensive options, especially in the centre and can get caught
out by playing too high a line a times and that could happen today,
with England set to give up a lot of possession. They are strongest in
midfield where they have a wealth of riches and maybe too many options,
they like to play with the ball and England will give it to them.
I
see a draw or French win, either would suit our outright saver bet on Les
Bleus, so no real need to get overly involved, if forced to pick, I
would have to suggest that the draw at 3.15 on the exchanges now offers
the best value .
Good Luck.
There are still 49 days worth of free emails up for grabs !
There are still 49 days worth of free emails up for grabs !
Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com
There are still 49 days worth of free emails up for grabs !
Friday, June 08, 2012
TAKEN FROM TODAY'S NOTES ....
FRIDAY JUNE 8th
Big day, Euro 2012 is finally here,
we have the Men's Semi Finals at Roland Garros ( or maybe not) , the
Serie B relegation playoff and a selection of World cup qualifiers, but
after much deliberation I will pass on those.Canada did get my attention after playing very well against the US in midweek though and have travelled to Havana to face Cuba in pretty bouyant mood.
These are the two weaker teams in the group and as such, both should
be looking for the win, Cuba have been hit by defections to the US in
recent years, all their players play domestic football and striker Alain
Cervantes hinted at a lack of confidence saying " we lack a killer
instinct and skill at decisive moments, in part due to our lack of
international experience". However, positives for the hosts are a poor
pitch and gruelling conditions, match is going to be played at the
hottest time of the day (31 degrees), but with a Humidex** reading of 43C/109F ( !) not a game to get involved with and certainly not one to take very low odds about the visitors in.
** Humidex is an index number used to describe how hot the weather "feels", by combining the effect of heat and humidity.
FRENCH OPEN TENNIS : MEN'S SEMI FINALS
It is cold, windy and wet in my
part of the world this morning and conditions are set to be very similar
at Roland Garros and to remain so all day. If forecasters are correct,
it is going to be very difficult to get both semi's completed , which is
going to hand an even bigger advantage to Rafael Nadal who is first on
court and he could easily be in the final and with his feet up, whilst
Federer and Djokovic are still waiting for the weather to clear !
It is very hard to make a case for
" Mini Rafa " or David Ferrer to give him his official name, defeating the
real deal. Rafa has won their last 12 h2h meetings on clay, the last
seven all in straight sets and has looked imperious this year, being
broken just once and only taken beyond three games twice, in winning 15
sets in the last fortnight. On Monday, he beat Argentina's Juan Monaco
and world number 15, 6-2, 6-0, 6-0 in a complete rout, that match was
played in very similar conditions to what we will see today. Monaco said
that it would be "practically impossible" for any player to defeat
Nadal at this year's event. Adding "I
know him, because of how he's been feeling on court the past few weeks
and having won those last two matches against Djokovic, has made
him believe even more in his tennis" It was cold and windy on court,
Rafa was a virtual wall from the
baseline, committing just 13 unforced errors during the one-hour,
46 minute match, combing defense and consistency with
powerful shot-making on the forehand side, producing a total of 23
winners.
Ferrer had his final against
Murray in the quarters, his target was a first RG semi and he has made
it, I suspect mentally his intensity will slip a little , he has a very
similar game to Rafa, but cannot play it as well or as consistenly and
whilst I am not putting up a bet today, I again expect Nadal to want to
get this finished as quickly as possible and show no mercy once he gets
on top of Ferrer.
EURO 2012
RUSSIA - CZECH REPUBLIC
POLAND - GREECE
It is very difficult to see too
many goals in this game and the Greeks especially are tough to break
down, they were 17 games unbeaten until recently and regardless of
opposition, that is incredibly impressive at international level and
breeds confidence .Captain Giorgos Karagounis has not done much to
change the general opinion of his team as a purely defensive unit by
stating that they must avoid
defeat in their opening game if they are to have any chance of making
the quarter-finals, the 35-year-old midfielder said: “If you cannot win
then you must not lose because it is the first match ". The Greeks only
conceded five times in qualification and have a miserly defence built
around the central defensive partnership of
Avraam Papadopoulos and Sokratis Papastathopoulos, but the whole squad
is very experienced, close knit and knows what is expected of them. They
have a huge threat from set pieces (nothing changes) just ask Croatia
and have a couple of a wildcards in Sotiris
Ninis and Giannis Fetfatzidis, the former will play on the right side of
midfield. Injuries have meant the 22yo has not quite fulfilled his
potential yet, but he guided Greece to the final of the U-19 European
Championship and was named MVP of the tournament and after not playing
much until March this season, should be fresher than most at the
Championships, he plays more centrally for his club, but wide
internationally and is capable of great things on a going day, he will
be playing in Italy next season. Fetfatzidis the "Greek Messi" is tiny
and has been having growth hormone treatments,
but lacks nothing in talent , he will be on the bench,..... REST OF THE PREVIEW IS RESTRICTED
SERIE B PLAYOFFS : EMPOLI- VICENZA
First leg finished 0-0, ahead of which I wrote ....I am not going to waste too long on this, these relegation playoffs have traditionally been very tight, with the last three first legs all ending in draws, two of which were scoreless, the second legs then tend to open up, but in what is low scoring league in any case, or at least was until recently, teams tend to revert to type with so much on the line. These two met just three weeks ago in Empoli and played out a tight 1-1 draw, with both very cautious early and we can expect the same today. Empoli trained behind closed doors for three days this week and the general consensus of opinion is that they have been experimenting with an extra midfielder in order to combat Vicenza, who have indicated in training this week that they will play effectively a 3-5-1-1 . A packed midfield is not going to make things any less tight and I like the draw here at 3.10 + on the exchanges, there is some 2.0 around for the half time stalemate and that looks a good call, with Vicenza drawing 12 of 21 at the break this season and scoring just six first half goals on home soil.
That went pretty much according to
plan and I expect the second leg tonight to go the way of these
previous games and the first goal to throw this match wide open. Vicenza
have scored 24 road goals this season, just one less than they have
managed at home and Empoli have conceded 33 times on home soild, only
relegated Nocerina have allowed more. There were chances at both ends in
the first game and Vicenza felt they did enough to have won the match
and now know that they will be playing Lega Pro football next season if
they do not win tonight. Hosts will survive with a point, by virtue of
their higher league placing, as away goals do not count double. I cannot
see Empoli being too expansive early and they will set out to hold on
to what they have and do have more quality in their squad, but it is a
very dangerous game to try and hold out for 90 minutes,Vicenza will have
to gamble and the first goal for either, regardless of when it comes
will throw this match into chaos. I am tempted to take Vicenza + 0.5
ball as this also gives us the draw, which will suit Empoli very well,
but I just about prefer the "over" alternative, I have seen it before
with these second leg games, there will be some very nervous footballers
out there, mistakes will be made and I expect both to score, maybe 2-2,
but I will opt for 1.5 units "over" 2 goals 1.84 asian line.
Likely starting line ups:
EMPOLI(4-3-1-2): Dossena; Buscè,Ficagna,Stovini,Gorzegno; Signorelli,Moro,Valdifiori; Saponara; Maccarone,Tavano
VICENZA(4-4-1-1): Frison; Brighenti,Martinelli,Pisano,Giani; Gavazzi,Soligo,Motta,Maiorino; Pinardi; Paolucci
Very
interesting looking day tomorrow, two Euro 2012 matches to discuss and
my first strong match bet of the competition, I will also preview the
Women's final from Roland Garros and the South American World Cup games, where I have another very solid pick.
Good Luck.
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