Sunday, June 03, 2012

SUNDAY .....

A massive couple of months in prospect and potentially a lot of money to be made. Euro 2012 will be fun to watch and I have already put up a bet there at very big odds (25.0 +) that I am super keen on, but there are any number of other betting opportunities through June and July and a 3.0 winner still trebles your money whether it is at Euro 2012 or in a pre season friendly. My three strongest sports percentage wise over the last 15 years have been NFL, Women's Tennis and US golf, two of them are at a peak through the summer months and the other starts immediately after. Blog stats for the last six years and I have to stress that they are blog stats only, are .....
2006 STAKES 991.5 RETURNS 1,154.806 ROI 116.46 %
2007 STAKES 1,187.5 RETURNS 1,331.677 ROI 112.14 %
2008 STAKES 482.5 RETURNS 664.675 ROI 137.75 %
2009 STAKES 548.5 RETURNS 642.43 ROI 117.12 %
2010 STAKES 225.13 RETURNS 259.585 ROI 115.30 %
2011 STAKES 162.25 RETURNS 171.025 ROI 105.41%

TOTALS 3,597.38 RETURNS 4,224.198 ROI 117.39 %

There is an event and country by country breakdown for the first five years of results on this LINK.
Over this six year period mid summer sports accounted for Stakes 746.63 and Returns of 951.72, that is a ROI of 127.46% and in the last two years when blog posts have been limited, June and July have been my best consecutive months in each year. So the summer sun, although it is pouring with rain as I type, is clearly good for me !

You can see 5-10% of my output by reading the blog, the only way to see everything is via the email service, see box on the right hand side of the page for details.

I will have  a follow up email before 11.00 UK time with the final round of the PGA golf event.

Denmark won and Main Sequence ran second in the Epsom Derby, which was the good news, Tommy Haas won the first set 7-6 and Richard Gasquet won the match , but it failed to go "over" 36.5 games which is as close to impossible as you can get , gambling never ceases to amaze me !


All the good news coming into this game is with the visitors, Colombia were expected to be without Atletico Madrid star Radamel Falcao Garcia Zárate or just "Falcao" to most of us, but he has made a quick recovery from a muscle injury and will start. The Colombia squad has a lot of talent and promise and after what was considered a disappointing start to World Cup qualification, coach Leonel Alvarez was sacked after just three months in charge ( !), which is a bit much for a Colombian legend. Experienced Argentine coach Jose Pekerman stepped into the hot seat and he has overseen friendly wins over Mexico ( 2-0) , which was a very impressive performance and Guyana (7-1), but it is this match he will be judged upon and with a tough trip to Quito to face Ecuador next, this is one Colombia dare not lose.

Hosts are in a similar situation in that they too need a result, but at least have a ready made excuse, with six starters and seven of their nine European based players missing out today. That robs them of a huge amount of talent and especially offensive threat, they will be without Claudio Pizzaro of Bayern, Juan Vargas ( Fiorentina), Jefferson Farfan ( Schalke), Alberto Rodriguex ( Sporting), Raul Fernandez ( Nice) and Rinaldo Cruzado ( Chievo) all of whom started in the only qualification match that Peru have won so far and also out is Carlos Zambrano of St Pauli. That puts much/ all of the attacking onus on Paolo Guerrero and the Hamburger SV striker has a very good strike rate, but he will not have the help he normally expects and Peru have been misfiring even with their stars. They have lost their last two qualification games , conceding six goals in the process and also shipped another seven in four 2012 friendly matches, winning only one, against unmotivated African opposition. I cannot really see Colombia losing this, so make them a strong bet off level ball, El Tigre is going to get plenty of chances to test this porous Peru backline. Los Cafeteros haven't lost in the Peruvian capital for 31 years. 1.5 units Colombia level ball 2.05 + asian line.

Likely line ups :
Peru :Butron
Revoredo, Acasiete, Ramos, Yotun
Lobaton, Gonzlaes, Ramirez, Carrillo
Guerrero, Ruidiaz

Colombia :Ospina
Zuniga, Armero, Yepes, Cuadrado
Ramirez, Guarin, Sanchez, Rodriguez
Pabon, Falcao


I am not going to waste too long on this, these relegation playoffs have traditionally been very tight, with the last three first legs all ending in draws, two of which were scoreless, the second legs then tend to open up, but in what is low scoring league in any case, or at least was until recently, teams tend to revert to type with so much on the line. These two met just three weeks ago in Empoli and played out a tight 1-1 draw, with both very cautious early and we can expect the same today. Empoli trained behind closed doors for three days this week and the general consensus of opinion is that they have been experimenting with an extra midfielder in order to combat Vicenza, who have indicated in training this week that they will play effectively a 3-5-1-1 . REST OF THE PREVIEW IS RESTRICTED



U.S. :GOALKEEPERS (3): Brad Guzan (Aston Villa), Tim Howard (Everton), Nick Rimando (Real Salt Lake)
DEFENDERS (7): Carlos Bocanegra (Rangers), Geoff Cameron (Houston Dynamo), Edgar Castillo (Club Tijuana), Steve Cherundolo (Hannover 96), Clarence Goodson (Brondby), Oguchi Onyewu (Sporting Lisbon), Michael Parkhurst (Nordsjaelland)
MIDFIELDERS (7): Kyle Beckerman (Real Salt Lake), Michael Bradley (Chievo Verona), Joe Corona (Club Tijuana), Maurice Edu (Rangers), Fabian Johnson (Hoffenheim), Jermaine Jones (Schalke 04), Jose Torres (Pachuca)
FORWARDS (6): Jozy Altidore (AZ Alkmaar), Terrence Boyd (Borussia Dortmund), Clint Dempsey (Fulham), Landon Donovan (LA Galaxy), Herculez Gomez (Santos), Chris Wondolowski (San Jose Earthquakes)

GOALKEEPERS (3): 1-Lars Hirschfeld (Valerenga), 18-Milan Borjan (Sivasspor), 22-Kenny Stamatopoulos (AIK Fotbol)
DEFENDERS (8): 2-Nike Ledgerwood (SV Wehen Wiesbaden), 3-Mike Klukowski (Manisaspor), 4-Kevin McKenna (FC Koln), 5-Andre Hainault (Houston Dynamo), 12-Dejan Jakovic (D.C. United), 15-David Edgar (Burnley), 19-Ashtone Morgan (Toronto FC), 21-Ante Jazic (Chivas USA)
MIDFIELDERS (7): 6-Julian de Guzman (Toronto FC), 8-Will Johnson (Real Salt Lake), 13-Atiba Hutchinson (PSV Eindhoven), 14-Dwayne De Rosario (D.C. United), 16-Pedro Pacheco (CD Santa Clara), 20-Samuel Piette (FC Metz), 23-Issey Nakajima-Farran (Brisbane Roar FC)
FORWARDS (4): 7-Iain Hume (Preston North End FC), 9-Tosaint Ricketts (FC Politehnica Timisoara), 10-Simeon Jackson (Norwich City), 17-Olivier Occean (SpVgg Greuther Furth)



Good Luck.

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