Wednesday, June 20, 2012


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WEDNESDAY JUNE 20th( written 09.00)
England won , Zlatan landed our top goalscorer bet ( see below) and the only thing wrong in the email yesterday was that I didn't put Tsvetana Pironkova up as an official selection. Pretty sure that we will be betting at the Aegon International tomorrow, but I am going to leave the tennis for today.

I hope that some of you took the big odds on ........NOTES RESTRICTED .........
................................................................................................... at such huge odds it is a very exciting bet and I do not speak in those terms very often.I do have some other news about their plans, but let's wait until ..... NOTES RESTRICTED

We are down to eight teams in Euro 2012 and they all get a day off from the action today, but we have plenty of other games to interest us and I am going to bet a couple of them.


We discussed Houston on Saturday, when I wrore ....

This is the big "Texas" derby and the hosts have had the better of meetings in recent years, with a 5-3-1 record in Houston and they currently hold the 19th-century Civil War replica cannon ( !), that these two clubs play for every season, just one scheduled meeting this season, so the cannon is on the line tonight ! This will be the first meeting between the clubs in Houston's brand new home, the BBVA Compass Stadium, they have taken seven points and kept two cleansheets from their three games in the Arena, all matches which like tonight, have been played in front of sell out crowds. Also, the stadium and especially pitch have been laid out to give the hosts every advantage, just us you would expect and hope. The grass is a particular variety of bermuda that they favour and the pitch is very small and a couple of teams have already complained about this, officially it is around 8% smaller than Dallas' home field, but many suspect it is even more compact and the crowd are very much on top of the playing surface making it appear even smaller and more intimidating. Their reasons for this and they have been quite open is that, their most valuable asset Brad Davis who was runner up in the MLS MVP voting last season, to Dwayne De Rosario btw ( see above), is a dead ball specialist, producing fantastic deliveries from corners and free kicks, the reduced field means that he can deliver more of these and to an even greater degree of accuracy.

Dallas are a little beat up David Ferreira,  Bobby Warshaw , Ugo Ihemelu and Brek Shea (three goals) are all out, Ricardo Villar ( two goals) and top scorer Blas PĂ©rez are doubts, Perez played twice for Panama last week and is said to be 50-50 at best, reading between the lines, I am not sure his heart is quite in this one. Anyway, they are short of options in central defence and midfield and could be devoid of most of their goal threat. They might have to go with Sealy and Luna up front, that potent pair have not scored once this season and only twice in 55 MLS outings between both of them !

They beat Dallas 2-1, remain healthy, with just a couple of fringe players out , stay on home soil and that "small" pitch to face woeful Toronto this evening, the visitors flew into Houston directly from Kansas where they lost 2-0 and it looks like most of them headed out on the town, three got into a brawl at a nightclub and were arrested, if that was not humiliating enough, one tried to run away and was easliy chased down by the local police ! Not too much intelligence, or speed shown there, if the Houston PD can catch him, other MLS players should have no problems !

Those three ( Luis Silva, Nick Soolsma and Miguel Aceva) are out pending the investigation and with four already injured/ very doubtful, Toronto, who have lost ten of their eleven starts, conceded an average of 2.6 goals per game on the road and lurch from one crisis to another have very few options tonight, especially for a second tough road game inside four days. Home win. 1.5 units Houston Dynamo -1 ball 1.95 asian line.

The other MLS games tonight do not overly inspire me, but the weekend games do and I always like the third of these three games in a week fixtures, with some weak squads in the MLS.



Good Luck.


Erik Hamren promised a more attacking and creative style when he took over as coach and we have seem glimpses of that and they certainly look to have more goals in them, at both ends of the pitch. Eventually Zlatan too bought into the concept and announced a return from his self imposed exile from international football in 2010. Hamren promised him the captaincy, freedom and open football. They played a kind of 4-2-3-1 through qualifying with Zlatan upfront, but have recently gone more 4-4-2.

The only real swedish superstar didn't play in the 3-2 win over Netherlands and all the talk about whether Sweden are a better team with or without him resurfaced. This year they have played more with Ibrahimovic in the playmaker role and with Elmander or Toivonen in the more advanced position. This hasn't reduced Zlatan's goal threat, he has scored in the last three matches and has more time on the ball and what is certain, is that he is coming into a major championship with no health issues for the first time in ages and coming off a huge season with 28 goals in 32 Serie A starts. He scored twice in both the 2008 and 2004 finals when he shared striking duties with Henrik Larsson, he looked incredibly sharp in the recent game with Iceland, albeit against weak opposition, but really on top of and enjoying his game, I expect him to have a good ,potentially great, tournament and will be hugely surprised if he doesn't end as top Swedish goalscorer and am delighted to see prices above 3.0 for this. I make him a solid bet. 1.5 units Zlatan Ibrahimovic to be top Swedish goalscorer 3.50 + .... there is a little 4.0 around.

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