Happy Birthday !

The blog is eight years old today, which is positively ancient , as blog years are much longer than dog years !

I posted some notes below from the clubgowi newsletter about one of tonight's matches . It was not quite the final day I had in mind for the blog, so I will put up a couple of posts tomorrow and we can say goodbye in proper fashion.

Please check back.

Good Luck !

Monday March 31st .....

France: Ligue 2: Racing Club Lens- Clermont

Hosts are looking very solid in the top three and could open up a whopping nine point lead over the 4th placed team with a win tonight. They travel to play Caen, one of the few teams who could still catch them on Saturday and so we can expect them to be looking for a maximum return against Clermont. However, there is no telling if the 6-0 spanking at Monaco in the Coupe de France quarter finals on Thursday has left any scars and RCL have only won one of their last four at home, whilst meeting teams with an average league placing of 12th.

Clermont are on an unbeaten run of three games and come into this having not played for ten days, so should be refreshed and well prepared.

Lens are 8-8 ( goals scored -conceded) at home before the break , 13-4 after it, Clermont are 7-5 on the road in the opening 45 minutes, a dismal 2-11 through the second half.

Those stats clearly indicate that we can expect RCL to be the stronger of the two in the second period and they might be happy to keep things tight early after the events of Thursday evening. They are a very decent 5-2-1 when level at half time at home ( 9-6-2 including away starts), Clermont 0-2-4 on the road.

Lens get Alaeddine Yahia ( 21-1-1) back in central defence, incredibly, in all competitions, they have conceded 21 goals in 25 starts when Yahia plays, 27 in 10 without him, an increase of 1.86 goals per game , welcome back ! However, they are without centre back Ahmed Kantari ( 21-1-0), midfielder Pierrick Valdivia (21-2-2) and a handful of longer term injuries.

Clermont arrive without centre back Cédric Avinel ( 23-1-1... no wins in six without him), right back Anthony Lippini (17-0-0), defensive midfielder and captain Eugène Ekobo ( 29-0-1 ...ever present........Clermont lost the last four matches he missed last season), plus striker Grégory Bettiol ( 20-4-1).

Definitely advantage to Lens in terms of team news and they should win this, but quotes of -0.75 ball 1.98 seems about right to me. I might take a little if and when they reach 2.0 for the straight win "in running" , but I will be very happy to bet them at the break  if we are all square and playing, as always 11 v 11.

Lens : Areola, Riou - Baal, Gbamin, Landre, Tisserand, Touré, Yahia - Bourigeaud, Cyprien, Le Moigne, Nomenjanahary, Salli - Chavarria, Coulibaly, Ndiaye, Ljuboja, Touzghar.

Clermont : Farnolle, Scolan - Bockhorni, Da Silva, Imorou, Salze - Betsch, Capelle, Diogo, Hamdi, Moulin, Salibur, Vidémont - Dugimont, Nkololo, Saad.

Good Luck.

Serie A betting preview :Torino - Cagliari

Serie A :Torino - Cagliari

We sided with Cagliari in midweek, when they edged past Verona 1-0 .....

The Sardinians do have a five point buffer over the drop zone, but with 3 of their next 4 starts coming on the road and their home game in that sequence against Roma, they will surely be eyeing up the win today, in what clearly appears the "easiest" points on offer over the next month. They will be without Daniele Dessena (26-0-0) and veteran captain Daniele Conti (24-4-2) in midfield, which is not ideal, but they have options and no real other issues, they look to be "going for this" with a very offensive looking line up and I take them to get those desperately needed three points.

That win has given them an eight point advantage over the bottom three and they will not need too much more to secure safety for another year, but they will want to get that done and dusted asap and their schedule is quite tough over the next month. A trip to Torino, doesn't look the trial it was earlier in the campaign, the hosts lost just one of their first eleven starts at the Stadio Olimpico, but have tasted defeat in 3 of their last 4. Today they also have to do without suspended top scorer Ciro Immobile (27-17-2), they are without a win in seven when he plays 45 minutes or less and they have lost the last four matches in which he has not scored.

Cagliari are also without a suspended striker in Mauricio Pinilla (23-5-3), but he is very much an impact player from the bench and whilst a very useful one, we are not really talking like for like. He did not feature in Cagliari's 2-1 win in the reverse fixture, where Immobile scored, the visitors did the double over Torino last season, winning 1-0 here and I favour a repeat and another low scoring victory, with the draw also on our side, I have to take 1.5 units Cagliari +0.25 ball 2.38 asian line/Ibramarket.

Torino : Tommaso Berni, Lys Gomis, Daniele Padelli,Cesare Bovo, Matteo Darmian, Kamil Glik, Nikola Maksimovic, Guillermo Rodriguez, Marko Vesovic,Migjen Basha, Omar El Kaddouri, Alexander Farnerud, Alessandro Gazzi, Jasmin Kurtic, Panagiotis Tachtsidis, Giuseppe Vives, Mattia Aramu (maglia numero 49), Alessio Cerci, Emmanuel Gyasi (maglia numero 31), Riccardo Meggiorini.

Cagliari: Avramov , Silvestri,Astori, Avelar, Bastrini, Del Fabro, Murru, Oikonomou, Perico, Pisano, Rossettini,Cabrera, Conti, Cossu, Dessena, Ekdal, Eriksson, Tabanelli, Vecino, Ibarbo, Ibraimi, Nenè, Sau.


Good Luck.

La Liga betting preview: Real Valladolid- Almeria

La Liga: Valladolid- Almeria

Big game for these two and on the back of a tough week for both. We previewed Almeria's midweek draw with Valencia.....

This is a tough ask for Almeria, Real Sociedad on Monday and Valencia on Thursday, the players have not trained much, it has mainly been about recovery and tactics for today. However, they players have claimed not to be tired at all and that are are buoyed by the fantastic win over Real, a result which has given them a realistic chance of survival, especially if they can follow up with a point or more this evening. They also get right winger Jonathan Zongo ( 11-1-2) signed in the transfer window, back from injury after missing out on Monday and likewise top scorer Rodri (18-7-1) from suspension, so the option to freshen up a winning team with two regular and key starters.

Almeria fought back from 2-0 down at the break to earn a share of the spoils and on the back of the match on Monday, we have to think there is not an awful lot left in the tank, after giving everything and then a little extra over the two games. This will be their third start inside five and a half days and having to travel yesterday and the clocks changing and losing another hour of sleep, is not in their favour. They have traveled without suspended defensive midfielder Verza (28-7-3) and injured left back Sebastián Dubarbier (24-1-0), they will miss the threat and cover of Versa, who scored twice against Real and also both goals in the 2-0 defeat of Atletico, two of just three wins in 2014 and oh yes, he also scored in the other ! They are without a cleansheet when Dubarbier misses out , conceding 14 in six.

Hosts also played on Thursday, but did have a little more recovery time leading up to that, as they played their previous game on Saturday, so in terms of freshness, they should have a huge edge. They are without suspended centre back Stefan Mitrovic who has played every minute of the ten games scheduled since his arrival on loan from Benfica in January, but otherwise have no problems. A win would take them above three clubs, including Almeria and out of the drop zone, at least for an hour or two and that is a massive incentive. They have beaten both Villarreal and Barcelona here since the turn of the year, so will fancy their chances and with Valencia and Real Madrid their next two visitors, know that things will only get harder after today.

I feel the temptation for the visitors will be to play for what would be an all important point, but they seem poorly set up to do so, especially given their two missing players and they have conceded two or more in each of their last five starts. I feel the early kick off on top of a gruelling schedule puts them at a massive disadvantage today. 1.5 units Valladolid -0.75 ball 2.25 asian line/Ibramarket.

Valladolid: Jaime, Mariño, Rukavina, Marc Valiente, Rueda, Peña, Bergdich, Álvaro Rubio, Baraja, Víctor Pérez, Rossi, Jeffren, Larsson, Óscar, Omar, Guerra, Osorio, Manucho.

Almeria: Esteban (1) , Julián Cuesta (25),  Rafita (20), Nelson (22), Torsiglieri (2), Marcelo Silva (3), Trujillo (5) , Mané (21),Aleix Vidal (8), Marcos Tébar (6), Corona (15), Azeez (31), Soriano (23), Barbosa (11) , Suso (17),  Oscar Díaz (9), Rodri (10) , Jonathan (19).


Good Luck.

Tough ask ...........

La Liga: Almeria-Valencia

This is a tough ask for Almeria, Real Sociedad on Monday and Valencia on Thursday, the players have not trained much, it has mainly been about recovery and tactics for today. However, they players have claimed not to be tired at all and that are are buoyed by the fantastic win over Real, a result which has given them a realistic chance of survival, especially if they can follow up with a point or more this evening. They also get right winger Jonathan Zongo ( 11-1-2) signed in the transfer window, back from injury after missing out on Monday and likewise top scorer Rodri (18-7-1) from suspension, so the option to freshen up a winning team with two regular and key starters.

Valencia have had an extra day's recovery time, but their match was not much less intense, being a derby game with Villarreal , which they won 2-1, there is not much for them to play for in the league now and the Europa League will surely be their focus and the draw has been kind, with a very win-able quarter final first leg with Basel next midweek. I doubt if this comes down to a scrap and it surely will, that they can match the battling qualities of the home side, for whom this means so much more.

For the visitors, centre back Víctor Ruiz who has only just returned to the first team, left the weekend game at half time with a knock and misses out tonight, along with goalkeeper Diego Alves ( in the 12 matches he has missed all competitions this season, Valencia have conceded 18 goals.... just 27 in the 31 he has played, a difference of 0.63 per game), left wingers Pablo Piatti (19-5-3 all comps) and Fede Cartabia (29-3-2) are both sidelined, one or other has started in every game and severely weakens them on that flank.

Before anyone writes to tell me, odds have drifted from 2.20 to 2.33 in the last hour, you can view that many ways, some people like to follow the money, I prefer to stick with my own views and at the higher quote have pushed up my stakes, which is a winning long term policy for me.

Almeria +0.25 ball 2.33 asian line/Ibramarket.

Valencia :Guaita, Antoni Sivera,Barragán, Joao, Vezo, Senderos, Mathieu, Bernat, Oriol, Javi Fuego, Dani Parejo, Keita, Feghouli, Míchel, Fede, Jonas, Vargas, Vinícius, Alcácer.


Good Luck.

Wednesday March 26th

The Elche bet below was a winner and there was a free to view content bonus, with another preview on the clubgowi website yesterday (LINK) which was also a winner. Remember, after March 31st there will not be any more posts here on the blog, it will only be possible to read FTV content on the clubgowi website. To be honest , that has largely been the case for the last 15 months and the previews posted here this month, have just been a final swansong, as the blog with be eight years old on the 31st and it is time to wind things up. we are going out on a high if you like.

I have previewed SEVEN matches for subscribers today and am a little "pumped" about the football, I normally only get that when something good is about to happen, it might not be today, but soon ! So keep in touch.

I can give you a tip in the meantime and that is to check out Sportmarket Pro, which is an automated bet-broker service, which enables you to access six different betting companies through a single account, you can read all about it on this link  including screencasts of it in action and my personal experiences of using the product here. Those two posts made the clubgowi top ten of 2013 and you can read the other eight on the website.

Good Luck.

The preview below .......

The preview below and the notes underneath it highlight why the clubgowi newsletter is such an exceptional

product, that is one of today's six previews sent to subscribers in two newsletters. This week there will be at least 12 newsletters and that will cost most subscribers a MAXIMUM 19 euros in total.

I am biased of course, but I do believe it is the best value sports betting product on the market. You do not have to take my word about the newsletter service, although after eight years, most of you know how good I am ( there is no point being modest at this late stage !), you can also read a third party review of the newsletter on this link.

Good Luck.

Tuesday March 25th ....

La Liga : Elche- Athletic Bilbao

Almeria twice fought back from a goal down last night to earn a 4-3 victory over highflying Real Sociedad . Three things about that, it took the home side out of the drop zone and within a point of Elche , extended Athletic's lead in the race for 4th to eight big looking points and showed Elche what you can achieve with the right application and total commitment.

Bilbao do not need to win this, closest challengers Sevilla are hosting Real Madrid tomorrow and Athletic will want to keep something back for the visit from Atletico Madrid at the weekend. Elche simply have to get something out of the game, with three of their next four starts being trips to Villarreal, Valencia and Atletico Madrid ! They are in the heart of the relegation scrap, have to battle for every blade of grass and however tough this might appear on paper, it is at least easier than those three upcoming fixtures.

You know that I am a fan of Athletic and their purist football beliefs, they have done us any number of favours over the last three seasons, not least last midweek at Villarreal, with that late goal (notes reproduced below), but you cannot win every game, or always play at the same intensity, this is a philosophy that won us so much money in Brazil last season ( and will do so again this summer), the need to "pick your battles" and a rare full midweek round in Spain, when there are bigger games ahead on home soil, is probably not one Bilbao should be opting for, especially facing an opponent desperate to survive in the top flight.

The home coach knows what is on the line tonight and has asked the crowd for full support for 90 minutes + and his players to leave the pitch with "no regrets", if they want to be playing top tier football in 2014-15. Team news is not important for me in these situations, heart , desire and motivation are all that matter, game of the season for Elche. 1.5 units Elche +0.5 ball 2.0 asian line /Ibramarket.

Elche have conceded just three home goals in the opening hour , Athletic have conceded 11 of 18 road goals (61%) between the 21st and 50th minute, so a good opportunity for the hosts to still be in this (or even ahead) entering the final third , giving good trading opportunities with this bet, if you want to go down that route. Getting involved in the first half is also an option..............the rest is up to you !

Athletic: Iraizoz, Toquero, Laporte, Erik Morán, San José, Beñat, Iturraspe, De Marcos, Iago Herrerín, Susaeta, Iraola, Mikel Rico, Muniain, Aduriz, Ander Herrera, Saborit, Ekiza , Balenziaga.

Good Luck.

La Liga: Villarreal-Athletic Bilbao  (written March 17th)

I am pretty sure that Athletic would snatch your hand off for a point tonight, it would give them a six point lead over Real Socieded in the Champions League race and effectively end the top four hopes of Villarreal.

Athletic are clubgowi favourites we won a LOT of money on them in 2011-12 and some readers have only just stopped counting the winnings from the win over Manchester United at Old Trafford which was two years ago last week. They blew across Europe like a breath of fresh air that season and we followed them almost all the way, 7.50 to win at OT was CRAZY. They were totally fearless that year, just like their coach the, in equal measures, brilliant and bonkers, Marcelo Bielsa, with that defeat of United, everyone knew how good they were, but  I had written six months earlier ....

New coach Marcelo Bielsa is a real one off and it has taken a little time to get his ideas across, but the benefits are starting to show and we can expect Bilbao to come on very strong in the next couple of months. Bielsa is very meticulous, he personally checks pitch measurements before every away game and has been known to give four hour press conferences ! He favours a high pressing game, with the strikers putting a lot of pressure on opposing defenders, whilst at times this looks a fairly rigid formation, he makes a lot of subtle changes during the course of the game, which sometimes give them five forward players. 18 yo Iker Muniain has been outstanding in the last two seasons and he has been very influential in the last two games, setting up a lot of chances for the front three. Far more options for the coach tonight with the return of big summer signing Ander Herrera from injury and Ekiza to the centre of defence after suspension and this is a young, developing team of huge potential.

This season I wrote within two weeks of the new season starting ... "Athletic Bilbao look destined for a solid season, they did not do much business in the summer, but the signing of Beñat Etxebarria from Betis looks top quality and Mikel Rico and Kike Sola will improve squad options. It was felt they might take time to adjust to Ernesto Valverde, who is a very different coach to Marcelo Bielsa ( isn't everyone ?), but he had eight years here previously as player and coach and understands how this club, which is very much a one off, operates. Aside from the top 3, Athletic look as strong as anyone and could compete for a top 4-6 finish if they can build on a decent start ( two wins and loss to Real Madrid) ,over the next month. The loss in Madrid was a bit of a wake up call, as people were getting a little carried away after winning their first two and they need to bounce back today. "

The coach came in for criticism shortly after for too much rotation, but has opted for a more settled line up since and they are in control of 4th spot at present and buoyed by a defeat of Barcelona last time out in La Liga.

They were huge odds to finish top 4, remember they finished 12th last season and I also suggested newly promoted Villarreal would have  abig season on opening day....Of the promoted clubs Villarreal look by far the strongest, they have spent a little money to get competitive, are still a big name club around Europe and the chances are, that we will come to view their one year hiatus in the second tier as little more than a blip. Whether they can quite return to former glory, they finished 8-3-7-5-2-5-7-4 in their eight seasons before relegation, is open to debate, but I expect a mid season finish this time round at the very least. They finished last season strongly, 9th in late January and seven points off an automatic promotion spot, they went 13-6-1 over their last 20 starts and pipped Almeria to second place. Spanish international defensive midfielder Bruno Soriano (36-4-4 last season) has been at the club man and boy and through the Champions League years and remained loyal, likewise offensive midfielder Cani (37-3-5) amongst others. That loyalty ( on both sides) was repaid and now Villa look well equipped for life back in the top flight. They have added some real quality with the signings of another defensive midfielder in Tomás Pina ( 36-0-1 Mallorca in La Liga), he and Soriano will make a fairly formidible pairing, plus gifted Mexican international strikers Giovani dos Santos (29-6-6 Mallorca) and Javier Aquino (joined late in the last transfer window). They did lose Javi Venta to Brentford ( !), but signed central defender Gabriel Paulista from Vitoria of Brazil (14-1-0) this week and they have spent some 17-20m euros on transfer fees alone, when others have kept very tight hold of their purse strings. To put that into perspective, whilst adding players, the other two promoted clubs only actually spent circa 50k on transfer fees between them !

Ikechukwu Uche (32-14-4) Jonathan Pereira (20-7-4) Jérémy Perbet (18-11-3) all remain and with the Mexican duo, they look to have as much offensive potential as any outside the really big players in Primera, if they could hit the ground running, a really strong season is in the offering and even a top six finish not impossible. Pereira , Perbet, Aquino only signed in January and made a huge and instant impact . They are spending money on the team in other ways too, chartering a plane to fly to Almeria at lunch time, so that they can prepare in Valencia this morning and staying in the city overnight.

Villarreal could move into 5th with all three points tonight and that ends my sales pitch for highlighting why you should read the content of the previews and not just focus on the bottom line .

Briefly, back to today, in stark contrast to the Roma game, I am looking for late action here, the hosts have conceded 10 of 16 home goals in the final 30 minutes, 6 in the last ten, which is the worst home defensive record in La Liga . Bilbao are 5-1 (goals scored -conceded) in the last ten minutes on the road, only Real Madrid have scored more and only Real and Barcelona are stronger after the break than Athletic. Good opportunity late again for the visitors, especially with Villa having to gamble for maximum points. 1 unit Bilbao at the best asian quote approaching the 60 minute mark if we are 11 v 11 and they are not already ahead.

France Ligue 1 betting preview : Valenciennes- Ajaccio

What a game for Valenciennes, a win over Ajaccio who are all but booked for Ligue 2 , combined with

Evian not winning at Toulouse, will see the hosts haul themselves out of the bottom three for the first time since mid September. After losing 7 of their first 8 starts that says so much about the club and their spirit.

We latched onto them early in the New Year and ahead of their home win over Bastia I wrote ...

Valenciennes found some form just before the break, which to be honest they could probably have done without, taking buoyant Bordeaux close and then winning 2-1 at Monaco in their last start of 2013, a result which will have given them hope of avoiding the drop, However, it is home form which will likely determine if they are to remain in Ligue 1 for an eighth straight season and four points from safety and with a trip to Marseille, where they have not won in recent times (at least a decade), up next, they need the win this evening. They have improved for their new coach and funds have been released to back him, with the club adding central defender Carl Medjani on loan from Monaco and speedy Majeed Waris from Spartak Moscow. Still only 22 yo, Waris was top Allsvenskan goalscorer in 2012 when with Hacken, 23 goals and 9 assists from 29 starts, in a league where three teams did not manage 32 goals as a club, was a very good tally and he could be good business, both go straight into the squad today. However, this is all about motivation for me and with a little momentum behind them, I favour the home win.

They have taken 13 points from their last five home games and most of those will feel like nothing if they do not get another three this evening. Last week they won a six pointer away to Evian 1-0 , ahead of which I wrote ....

Valenciennes are missing suspended defensive midfielder David Ducourtioux (23-1-1), they are 1-2-5 when he plays 45 minutes or less and are without a cleansheet in those games, conceding 15 goals in total. This compounds the continued, and now long term absence of Benjamin Angoua and Lindsay Rose in central defence and missing those two and without the protection which Ducourtioux brings to the backline, it is very difficult to see Valenciennnes keeping Evian out for too long. The visitors do have a greatly increased threat now and Waris was an exceptional bit of  "window" business.

Waris scored and the clean sheet was fantastic under the circumstances. I do not see team news as overly important , but the hosts do get Ducourtioux back this evening.

Ajaccio are planning for Ligue 2, but have found a few goals recently and scored in 7 of their last 8, including at Lyon and twice at Nantes. Valenciennes do not often do things the easy way and despite that solid run at home recently, have conceded in each of those five games. I feel they might do so again, but cannot see beyond the home win and every time I look at this fixture, the 3-1 scoreline is staring back at me.

That was the scoreline when the two met in Corsica and Valenciennes also won this 3-0 last season, so have scored six in the last two h2h meetings. I am backing the hosts and will "cover" on the over 3.5 goal line which has obliged in 4 of Ajaccio's last six starts and in 2 of 4 for the home team, a reasonable chance for us to collect on both.

1.75 units Valenciennes -1 ball  2.00 asian line/Ibramarket.

0.75 units "over" 3.5 goals 3.20-3.60 general quote, there is also 2.64 "over" 3 goals with Pinnacle Sports which is also an option.

Valenciennes : Novaes, Penneteau - Ciss, Kagelmacher, Lala, Masuaku, Mater, Nery - Da Silva, Dossevi, Doumbia, Ducourtioux, Enza-Yamissi, Houri, Melikson - Le Tallec, Pujol, Waris.

Ajaccio : Ochoa, Sissoko - Nadeau, Perozo, Ait-Yahia, Mostefa, Diarra, Faty, Lasne, André, Cavalli, Tallo, Bonnart, Leca, Orengo, Mela, Baradji, Camara.

Ajaccio have conceded 54% of road goals ( 43% of all goals) in the final 30 minutes.


Good Luck.

Tuesday March 18th

As I told you yesterday, I sent subscribers two selections for Monday and they are reproduced below in full,

exactly as they were sent in the morning clubgowi newsletter .

I suggesting betting Roma to win the first half after the 13th-14th minute as long as they were not leading, it was 0-0 at that stage and they were trading at odds of 2.36.  They were 2-0 up inside 31 minutes and that was the score at the break.

In our second game, after a bit of self promotion, I got around to suggesting we take Athletic approaching the hour mark, again with the proviso that they were not ahead, they were trailing 1-0 and quoted at a terrific level ball 2.19 at that stage for the rest of the match, which they won 1-0 ( final score 1-1).

95% of our selections are pre match, but we also give a lot of "in play" stats and suggestions in the newsletter and if you do not think that information and previews like this are worth 19 euros per week ( this week there will be at least 12 newsletters btw), then you are a lost cause and should perhaps find another hobby !

Good Luck !

Serie A: Roma-Udinese

It is only really about the race for second place for Roma now and they might be extra motivated for this this after losing to Napoli last week, especially if their direct rival for that position wins the earlier kick off today. Udinese are probably 3-6 points away from safety and are far more likely to claim three of those at home to Sassuolo this coming Sunday, than they are tonight. The visitors are not the greatest of travelers anyway, but are very vulnerable away from home early, being 2-3-9 in the first half, a significantly better 5-4-5 after the break, interestingly, they have conceded 13 of 22 road goals (59%) between the 16th-45th minute, Roma are a very strong 10-1 (goals scored-conceded) at home, through the same period and there is a good opportunity for them to take command then.

Roma are asked to give up a 1.25 goal handicap over 90 minutes, in the first half that is circa 1.94 -0.5 ball, but if they are not leading approaching the 15 minute mark, we are likely to get far more generous quotes about them going in ahead at the break and taking the lead through the period when Udinese are most suspect defensively. Midfielder Bruno Fernandes (15-3-3) is suspended for the visitors, he has missed five away games, four of which they have lost, conceding the winner, between the 23rd and 45th minute in each .

Roma suffered a huge loss with the season ending injury to Kevin Strootman last week, but do get Francesco Totti back today. 1 unit Roma best available asian quote at the 13-14 minute mark in first half betting, as long as they are not already leading and we are 11 v 11.

Udinese: Brkic, Kelava, Scuffet;Basta, Bubnjic, Danilo, Domizzi, Heurtaux, Naldo, Neuton, Widmer;Allan, Badu, Jadson, Yebda, Lazzari, Pereyra, Pinzi;Di Natale, Maicosuel, Muriel, Nico Lopez, Zielinski.

La Liga: Villarreal-Athletic Bilbao

I am pretty sure that Athletic would snatch your hand off for a point tonight, it would give them a six point lead over Real Socieded in the Champions League race and effectively end the top four hopes of Villarreal.

Athletic are clubgowi favourites we won a LOT of money on them in 2011-12 and some readers have only just stopped counting the winnings from the win over Manchester United at Old Trafford which was two years ago last week. They blew across Europe like a breath of fresh air that season and we followed them almost all the way, 7.50 to win at OT was CRAZY. They were totally fearless that year, just like their coach the, in equal measures, brilliant and bonkers, Marcelo Bielsa, with that defeat of United, everyone knew how good they were, but  I had written six months earlier ....

New coach Marcelo Bielsa is a real one off and it has taken a little time to get his ideas across, but the benefits are starting to show and we can expect Bilbao to come on very strong in the next couple of months. Bielsa is very meticulous, he personally checks pitch measurements before every away game and has been known to give four hour press conferences ! He favours a high pressing game, with the strikers putting a lot of pressure on opposing defenders, whilst at times this looks a fairly rigid formation, he makes a lot of subtle changes during the course of the game, which sometimes give them five forward players. 18 yo Iker Muniain has been outstanding in the last two seasons and he has been very influential in the last two games, setting up a lot of chances for the front three. Far more options for the coach tonight with the return of big summer signing Ander Herrera from injury and Ekiza to the centre of defence after suspension and this is a young, developing team of huge potential.

This season I wrote within two weeks of the new season starting ... "Athletic Bilbao look destined for a solid season, they did not do much business in the summer, but the signing of Beñat Etxebarria from Betis looks top quality and Mikel Rico and Kike Sola will improve squad options. It was felt they might take time to adjust to Ernesto Valverde, who is a very different coach to Marcelo Bielsa ( isn't everyone ?), but he had eight years here previously as player and coach and understands how this club, which is very much a one off, operates. Aside from the top 3, Athletic look as strong as anyone and could compete for a top 4-6 finish if they can build on a decent start ( two wins and loss to Real Madrid) ,over the next month. The loss in Madrid was a bit of a wake up call, as people were getting a little carried away after winning their first two and they need to bounce back today. "

The coach came in for criticism shortly after for too much rotation, but has opted for a more settled line up since and they are in control of 4th spot at present and buoyed by a defeat of Barcelona last time out in La Liga.

They were huge odds to finish top 4, remember they finished 12th last season and I also suggested newly promoted Villarreal would have  abig season on opening day....Of the promoted clubs Villarreal look by far the strongest, they have spent a little money to get competitive, are still a big name club around Europe and the chances are, that we will come to view their one year hiatus in the second tier as little more than a blip. Whether they can quite return to former glory, they finished 8-3-7-5-2-5-7-4 in their eight seasons before relegation, is open to debate, but I expect a mid season finish this time round at the very least. They finished last season strongly, 9th in late January and seven points off an automatic promotion spot, they went 13-6-1 over their last 20 starts and pipped Almeria to second place. Spanish international defensive midfielder Bruno Soriano (36-4-4 last season) has been at the club man and boy and through the Champions League years and remained loyal, likewise offensive midfielder Cani (37-3-5) amongst others. That loyalty ( on both sides) was repaid and now Villa look well equipped for life back in the top flight. They have added some real quality with the signings of another defensive midfielder in Tomás Pina ( 36-0-1 Mallorca in La Liga), he and Soriano will make a fairly formidible pairing, plus gifted Mexican international strikers Giovani dos Santos (29-6-6 Mallorca) and Javier Aquino (joined late in the last transfer window). They did lose Javi Venta to Brentford ( !), but signed central defender Gabriel Paulista from Vitoria of Brazil (14-1-0) this week and they have spent some 17-20m euros on transfer fees alone, when others have kept very tight hold of their purse strings. To put that into perspective, whilst adding players, the other two promoted clubs only actually spent circa 50k on transfer fees between them !

Ikechukwu Uche (32-14-4) Jonathan Pereira (20-7-4) Jérémy Perbet (18-11-3) all remain and with the Mexican duo, they look to have as much offensive potential as any outside the really big players in Primera, if they could hit the ground running, a really strong season is in the offering and even a top six finish not impossible. Pereira , Perbet, Aquino only signed in January and made a huge and instant impact . They are spending money on the team in other ways too, chartering a plane to fly to Almeria at lunch time, so that they can prepare in Valencia this morning and staying in the city overnight.

Villarreal could move into 5th with all three points tonight and that ends my sales pitch for highlighting why you should read the content of the previews and not just focus on the bottom line .

Briefly, back to today, in stark contrast to the Roma game, I am looking for late action here, the hosts have conceded 10 of 16 home goals in the final 30 minutes, 6 in the last ten, which is the worst home defensive record in La Liga . Bilbao are 5-1 (goals scored -conceded) in the last ten minutes on the road, only Real Madrid have scored more and only Real and Barcelona are stronger after the break than Athletic. Good opportunity late again for the visitors, especially with Villa having to gamble for maximum points. 1 unit Bilbao at the best asian quote approaching the 60 minute mark if we are 11 v 11 and they are not already ahead.

Monday 17th March ....

Laval were easy winners on Friday (see two posts down), stakes returned on Betis yesterday (see below) ,

and hopefully, you all got to see the Bundesliga preview on the clubgowi website ,which Freiburg won 4-1 .

Just 14 days of posts left on here after today, following which, you will only ever be able to read clubgowi free to view content on the website, so you might as well get used to checking it out on a daily basis now.

However, a far better solution is to sign up to become a full clubgowi member and get to see all our output, circa 30 full match/event previews per week, details can be found here.

You can read excerpts from a third party preview of the service on this link.

I have looked at three of today's matches for subscribers, putting up selections in two and there is a hugely busy week ahead with two newsletters scheduled for tomorrow alone.

The website has been the GOWI home for well over 14 months now and if you have not been following us there over that period, a good place to start is our top ten posts of 2013 article.

Elsewhere, without counting any chickens, my beloved Brenford have , if not one foot, at least a big toe in the Championship after Saturday's massive win at Leyton Orient and I am hoping that someone is super gluing and putting a nail through that toe just for good measure this week. Too many near misses in the past, it just feels so different this season and I have everything crossed that we can get the job done as soon as possible and maybe even enjoy the last couple of games in League 1.

BTW, George (The Enforcer) Saville and Marcello Trotta are "useless" and Chelsea and Fulham should definitely sell both cheaply in the summer.

Good Luck.

La Liga ....

La Liga: Elche- Real Betis (written Saturday 18.00)

Betis have at long last awoken from their slumber !

A win at Rubin in the Europa League set up a double header with neighbours and deadly rivals Sevilla in the european competition and that seemed to inspire them. A point at highflying Villarreal in the league followed, by all three at home to Getafe last week and then, most eyecatching of all, a 2-0 win over Sevilla in the first leg on Thursday. More than a little momentum and that eight point gap to survival and the promised land of 17th spot, no longer looks quite so far from their grasp.

Three points here would also close the gap on Elche to eight points and have the additional bonus of bringing one more team into the mix.

Real have yet to win on the road this season, but that tends to matter less once we are into must win territory and if they can win in Russia and at Sevilla ,a trip to Elche who have won only 5 of 14 at home and who were playing second tier football last season, whilst Betis were challenging for a european place, should hold few fears.

It is a very quick turnaround, especially given that it is an early kick off, but I suspect Real WANT to be playing right now and if they win, would probably like another game tomorrow.

In the last three seasons, teams have needed between 37 and 44 points to survive in La Liga, in the two years that 37 were enough, after 27 rounds the team in 17th had 26 points, exactly the same as Valladoilid have now. That would mean that 19 points is probably the minimum that Real need to survive, that is six wins and a draw from 11 starts, a tall order given that they have only won four all season. But easier to manage once you are playing well and if Real knew for certain that would be enough, I think it would be cause for celebration. However, they are probably going to have to win at least twice on the road and looking at the remaining matches, I would argue that this was one they would surely target, not least because it would keep the momentum up.

Elche are without left Edu Albacar (17-3-1...........just two wins in 10 starts without him).

1.5 units Real Betis level ball 2.31 asian line/Ibramarket.


Good Luck.

France: Ligue 2 ....

Laval-Auxerre

Laval seem to have joined Istres as the team we discuss every week, so lots of recent notes on them, ahead of their recent 2-1 defeat at Brest I wrote ...

Laval's last four starts have only produced a total of two goals, but they know they have to gamble today and that their next three starts ( they also play the other two in the drop zone) are going to be season defining matches. Also, the five previous home matches they have played this season against bottom eight teams have all gone "over" at an average of 4.2 goals per game, they are without central defender Miodrag Stosic (12-0-0) and left sided midfielder Amara Baby (17-4-0) this evening, but nothing too bad and I expect them to play their part in an exciting contest.

Laval arrive beat up and without centre backs Malik Couturier (23-0-1) and Miodrag Stosic, defensive midfielder Hassane Alla (23-2-3), left winger Amara Baby (17-4-0) and right winger Sébastien Renouard (15-2-1). It is defensively they worry me and whilst I think they have a chance of winning today at decent odds (3.60+) ,  it is almost impossible to see them keeping a clean sheet given that they will leave gaps and look vulnerable at the back. We spoke about the increase in goals in Ligue 2 recently and they are still averaging 2.45 per game and I think we will see both teams score tonight.

Last week they got a vital 2-0 win over CA Bastia when I wrote .... tonight they will still be without Couturier and Stosic in the middle of the backline and Baby and Renouard out wide, they will get a little protection for that weakened defence with the return from suspension of Hassane Alla (see stats for all five players above), but that is more than offset by the loss of left back Guillaume Rippert (22-0-1) to suspension.

The three points earned there did not improve their league placing, but  did take them a little closer to safety, they are four points from both survival and five adrift of tonight's oponent and looking at the bigger picture, "just" nine adrift of Arles who are in a lofty tenth place, so still an awful lot to play for. Having said that, not a lot of margin for error for Laval, who have to keep picking up points, especially on home soil.

Couturier and Renouard are still sidelined with injury ( see both above) and defensive midfielder Anthony Gonçalves (25-0-3) is suspended and looks a big loss, with Laval having won just 2 from 11 without him and conceded two or more goals in seven of those. They look short in central defence, but have apparently left Miodrag Stosic out by choice, so must be happy with the situation, but without the protection of Gonçalves, they look vunerable.

On the plus side, the return to action of left winger Amara Baby gives them far more options on that flank, Laval have collected ten points from 15 games (0.67 pts average) in which he has played 30 minutes or less, 16 from the other 12 (1.33 per game).

Auxerre have not won in four and starting today, have three of their next four start on the road, where they have not won in over ten months and scored just five times in 13 away days this season. They did win here last season, incredibly winning a real thriller by the odd goal in nine (!), scoring the same in 90 minutes as they have managed away from home all season. Maybe a trip here will awaken them from their slumber, that or the prospect of heading for National just three seasons after playing Champions League football !

They lost their offensive focus with the transfer of Paul-Georges Ntep and arrive today without suspended right back Eric Marester (21-0-0) and goalkeeper Donovan Léon who started in the last 12 games. With Olivier Sorin already injured, that means Lembet or Baltus in goal, neither of whom have started this season. Key defensive midfielder Jamel Aït Ben Idir (25-1-0) is injured and this looks a very big ask for the visitors, given their lack of firepower up front and defensive issues. Laval tend to start matches quickly ( see stats below) and Auxerre poorly, so a real opportunity for the hosts to get a foothold in what they will surely see as a must win fixture. 1.5 units Laval -0.5 ball 2.16 asian line/Ibramarket.

Laval have collected 41 points in the first half, just 21 after the break.

Auxerre have scored a league low two road goals before the break.


Laval:Maxime Hautbois, Lionel Cappone,  Guillaume Rippert, Kévin Perrot, Gaëtan Belaud, Selim Ben Djemia,  Antony Robic, Martin Mimoun, Jordan Adéoti, Hassane Alla, César Lolohéa, Amara Baby, Gary Coulibaly,Mamadou Diallo, Christian Bekamenga, Julien Toudic.

Auxerre : Lembet, Baltus - Castelletto, Ndong, Coulibaly, Boly, Ramos - Boé-Kane, Segbefia, Monconduit, Ngando - Sammaritano, Sawadogo, Haller, Kitambala, Pléa

 

  

Caen- Nimes

Nimes top scorer Samir Benmeziane (23-9-0) is sidelined and that is a big loss, having said that, they are fairly prolific on the road, especially after the break and only three of his goals have come away from home. Caen are Ligue 2's second top goalscorer's and will be looking for maximum points here, with a win likely to take them into the top 3, at least for 24 hours. They have been very strong here late (see below) and I feel that we might see some late drama here.

Caen are 8-1 (goals scored -condeded) in the final 15 minutes.

Nimes have scored a Ligue 2 high 11 road second half goals. They are strong after the break with 19 points (4-7-2) only Lens have a better road second half record.

Caen : Perquis, Bosmel - Calvé, Wague, Pierre, Appiah, Raineau - Seube, Kante, Montaroup, Fajr, Lemar - Nangis, Kodjia, Koita, Duhamel.

Nîmes : Merville, Michel - Boche, Hsissane, Bouby, Cissokho, Cordoval, Fanchone, Gragnic, Koura, Kovacevic, Ogounbiyi, Omrani, Poulain, Robail, Sartre.

Good Luck.

Serie A betting preview : Napoli- Roma

The Roma chase of Juventus appears over and with Napoli ten points clear of Fiorentina in 4th, this is the

race within a race and battle for second place. The hosts trail the visitors by three points and have played a game more, so only really a win will help their cause, they will go all out for it, because they cannot really play any other way. These are arguable the two most attack minded teams in Serie A and this is a fixture that traditionally provides entertainment and plenty of it, with the last 20 h2h meetings averaging 3.35 goals .

The two met here last month in the Coppa Italia with Napoli recording a resounding 3-0 win and overcoming a 3-2 defeat in the first leg. They won last year's league meeting also by three goals (4-1) and feel they now have the upper hand, certainly here at the Stadio San Paolo. Ahead of the last meeting I wrote ....

This should be entertaining. Roma won the first leg 3-2 and one earlyish goal either way should see this follow a similar pattern. Both teams are treating the competition with respect and the game seriously. Roma failed to beat Lazio in the derby game at the weekend, but were unlucky IMO, the Gervinho "goal" would have been given by most match officials and the referee missed two clear yellow card fouls, which would have seen red's awarded for later infringements....but I am not bitter !

Roma are looking to make the final for the eighth time in a dozen seasons and are always especially motivated with the decider now played in their home stadium. You can read a lot of background notes on them in the Sunday newsletter. Team news is unchanged and they have travelled with the strongest squad available.

Coach Rudi Garcia made some telling comments saying...."We’ll play to win the game, at least initially. The game we play is made for attacking, and then we'll see how the match goes. Tomorrow could be the game of the season; in games this close we know we need everyone. Tomorrow we’ll go to Naples with the strength we have in this moment. We have enough of it."

I did not fully pick up on this "we’ll play to win the game, at least initially", which implied a negative approach alien to both club and players and handed the initiative to the hosts, who never need a second invitation to ride roughshod over any opponent. This is a new game, but Garcia made similar comments this week, speaking about the race for second and commenting something along the lines of "we just need a point, Napoli have to play for the win" and this could open the game up for a repeat.

The visitors arrive without favourite son, the talismanic Francesco Totti (15-5-7) he gives so much to the team just by being on the bench and even at 37 years of age, is hugely influential.Roma have a 44.5 win rate without him in the squad, that rises to 76.5% when he is available. Also missing today is suspended defensive midfielder Daniele De Rossi (23-1-0) and Roma always looks far more vulnerable without him in their ranks.

Hosts get Gonzalo Higuain and Raul Albiol back from suspension and look in great shape for this.

1.5 units Napoli -0.25 ball 2.12 asian line/Ibramarket.

Napoli have scored a high 57% of home goals before the break , Roma have scored just 15% of road goals in the opening 30 minutes so a good chance for the hosts to get ahead, especially if the visitors arrive with even a slightly negative mind set.

Good Luck.

Sunday March 9th .....taken from today's clubgowi subscriber newsletter ....

Firstly, a heads up that there might be an early send out on both Tuesday and Wednesday to cover the

AFC Champions League games, but I will try and confirm that 100% on Monday.

I often say that confidence can come and go quickly with young sportsmen and after carrying all before them for the best part of four months, you could tell that a little of the self belief had deserted Brentford yesterday, after the heavy defeat to Wolverhampton Wanderers and failure to beat Carlisle United. They passed the ball well enough, but created nothing in a poor first half and were not playing at their usual tempo. However, they looked much better after the break, especially when switching to 4-3-3 ( they played two up front in the opening 45 ) and with the goal after an hour, the confidence came flooding back and for the final 30 minutes they were a joy to watch and could easily have scored four. The drying pitches definitely suit Brentford better and head coach Mark Warburton and his team learned a LOT from the loss to the leaders and he/they were far more pro active tactically and in terms of using the bench yesterday. It is OK to make mistakes in sport/betting and life, as long as we learn something from them.

Massive week for the Bees, Tranmere Rovers at home on Tuesday and away to Leyton Orient on Saturday lunchtime in a televised top of the table clash. If some newer subscribers are wondering what the heck we are doing starting today by discussing a match we were not involved in yesterday in depth, my pre-season notes on Brentford are reproduced at the foot of the page.  By the way Bradford City left me a little cold and in stark contrast to how I left Adams Park "pumped" by their perfomance a year ago, they came looking for a point yesterday and showed little real game plan. The Bantams were unexpectedly missing a couple of very key players (Andrew Davies and James Hanson ), but have lost their way, amazing support though from almost 1,000 travelling away fans. Big club at this level and they will be stronger next season if they can find some investment, but I understand funds are tight. We can save that for late July/early August !

 

Good Luck.

Football League 1 (written pre season)

Brentford have been well tipped up, pretty much across the board, we were on them last season at much bigger prices and I do feel that they were probably better value then, they came up just short, but most of us earned money out of them, so they do not owe us anything.

However, the Bees were one of the two best teams in League 1 last year, they are definitely stronger this season (I will talk about the new signings later), the division is weaker this time round IMO and the the squad which was one of the youngest , is a year older and a lot wiser. We have spoken often about how they tend to improve as a club in second/ third meetings against teams and that attention to detail and investment in backroom staff , will be even more valuable this season. We talked last season about any number of things that the Bees do ,which other teams at their level either do not have the resources for, or if they do, choose to spend their money elsewhere.

For example, Brentford have a Performance Analysis team which extends to 3-4 people, as opposed to one ,if they are lucky, at most third tier teams. They go through every players performance after games and sometimes even at the half time break if they have spotted something and this is done not just with the first team, but at development level.

The club have put huge investment into the training pitch and Academy, which is run along the same lines as big european teams, Brentford were two weeks ago upgraded to Category Two Football Academy status, the only club outside the top two divisions to ever make this step up.

They have purchased land for a new stadium at Lionel Road and owner Matthew Benham, who is a lifetime supporter, has taken steps to secure the long term financing of the club and all these projects, should something happen to him and this is clearly the strongest Brentford have been on and off the pitch in 60 years.

They are not "throwing" money at the team, most of the big investment is in long term projects, but these facilities and approach do encourage players to want to come and in terms of loan deals, bigger clubs to be willing to let youngsters with potential come to Griffin Park, knowing they will be well looked after and they have an especially close relationship with Everton.

I also feel they were the best conditioned team in League 1 and this was highlighted by two sets of stats, firstly, when they scored their goals, with 50% coming in either the last 15 minutes of the first half (23% ... this is a big number) or the last 15 of the match (27%) and also the huge number of points they gained from losing positions (23).

I also explained about the set up of the backroom beyond manager Uwe Rosler and especially Director of Football Mark Warburton who was approached by a Premier League club last season ........ Premier League WBA have been courting Bees Director of Football Mark Warburton, I explained his role at the club last season to long term readers, he has put in place Medical and Performance Analysis teams that are the envied by many bigger clubs and it is this kind of development I speak when I say the club are run along lines of a Championship + club, they have been for 12-18 months and the trees they have planted and beginning to bear fruit. Warburton was flattered, but has chosen to stay at Brentford and I never doubted he would as he is a key part in the club, in what is a long term project, he said “It was very flattering to be even linked to such a senior role at a club of the stature of West Bromwich Albion.  "However, I am part of an exciting project that is well underway at Griffin Park and it is only right that my focus should be to help take the club forward and achieve its aims and ambitions."I enjoy an excellent relationship with Uwe Rösler, Ose Aibangee and all of the football staff and we are very fortunate to similarly enjoy the support of a club Board which is totally committed to taking the club to the next level."

.

He added “Brentford Football Club has made tremendous strides in the past 18 months. “It is a Club set up to make progress up the football pyramid and we have sought to put into place a backroom and management team that are more than capable of working at a significantly higher level."  “There is a young, talented First Team squad that we hope will continue to develop and this will be bolstered by players coming through at younger levels of an excellently-run Academy.“There is a new ground on the horizon too, which will only help the Club to grow."

Warburton is close to the owner and whilst Rosler may go at some stage, that is kind of the nature of things in football, I think he and Matthew Benham have long term plans. This is now an exceedingly well run club and they will be playing Championship football, if not next season, then the one after and they have ambition beyond that. This was the first big approach for a member of the backroom staff and the fact that it was unsuccessful, was a massive statement of intent from the whole club. It was also probably made easier as Warburton is already said to be wealthy/secure from non football related business dealings.

Now the team, they lost Harry Forrester to Doncaster Rovers and on Monday, keeper Simon Moore to Cardiff City. They were both "expected", Moore is a good young keeper with huge potential, but not the finished article, he should develop into a quality top flight keeper, but for now, he is probably not better than Bees other senior keeper Richard Lee, however Lee is still recovering from injury , but the club had already signed 19 yo Watford keeper Jack Bonham and yesterday added David Button from Charlton as replacement for Moore.
Uwe Rösler : “We always felt we had to have a Plan B in place in case we had offers for Simon Moore. Over the summer we had goalkeepers in on trial and we made lists and enquiries in case Simon left. That happened this week and with Simon going out the door, there is an opportunity for someone to come in. We decided David was the perfect choice for us. He is at the right age and he is very hungry to make the number one spot his own. As soon as Simon left, David was our first choice. He is the only player we enquired about and the only player we made a bid for. We did not at any stage make any enquiries or bids for any other goalkeepers. David will face strong competition for the goalkeeper spot from Jack Bonham and Richard Lee, when Richard is fit again. We are very strong in the goalkeeper department. We have been strong there over the past two seasons and are even stronger this year. I look forward to working with David and our other goalkeepers. I believe it is very important to have match winners in both penalty areas. You need strikers to win matches and goalkeepers to win matches. Richard Lee and Simon Moore have won matches for us; goalkeeper is a crucial position and David is a very good player. I am very happy with the signing.”

Mark Warburton said: "We had to move very quickly to find a more than suitable replacement. David has an excellent pedigree from his time at the Tottenham Academy and in the Charlton First Team. He is a goalkeeper who still has outstanding potential and we are very excited to secure his services at Brentford FC. David is very keen to prove he is a number one goalkeeper and this is an opportunity for him to do that. We hope this is a great move for both parties.”

I wanted to explain their thinking, as this is typical of how the club is run now, there is always a Plan B and they are proactive rather than reactive in everything.

The surplus money received for Moore and Button was not cheap anyway (neither figure was disclosed), is available if required for further strengthening. It might not be needed just yet.

They also signed...Conor McAleny (Everton), Martin Fillo (Viktoria Plzen), Javi Venta ( Villarreal), George Saville (Chelsea), Alan McCormack ( Swindon) and Will Grigg (Walsall). McAleny
is a 20 yo striker and alreay has the club buzzing, he scored twice against PL Cardiff City last night. Fillo is a Czech international, Venta is a veteran defender who has played a dozen Champions League matches and he has brought into the project to help with the youngsters. Saville is a combative midfielder who, according to Warburton, trained every day last season with the Chelsea first team. McCormack is a team leader and was hugely influential in a strong Swindon team over the last two seasons playing 94 matches, I am hugely pleased with this addition and also Grigg, who is just 22yo and scored 19 goals last season in what I felt was an average Walsall team.

I am equally delighted that the loan deal for 20 yo left back Jake Bidwell (Everton) was made permanent and Harlee Dean a hugely promising 22 yo centre back and 21 yo midfielder Adam Forshaw ( another former Evertonian) have both signed three year contract extensions. These are the future of the club and all will be playing at a much higher level soon, hopefully with Brentford.

Bees also have Stuart Dallas, who is still only 22 yo and has been brought along very slowly by the Bees, Rosler when asked, always says "we know what we have with Stuart" with the implication that he is a future star, albeit a raw one, when we have seen him, he looks good and this should be his breakthrough year.

Squad wise this is incredibly strong and they have, with no exaggeration, 22-23 players who would start each week at probably 18-20 of the other League 1 clubs, Wolves are the unknown factor, they still have £19m worth of EPL parachute money, but like Portsmouth in League 2, every team will be extra motivated playing them and after two terrible campaigns, they have to start well.

Brentford were third last year, hard, almost impossible, to see them finishing any lower this season. I debated long and hard about how or if to bet them and am happy with my decision.

I will take 1.75 units Brentford to be promoted 4.0-4.33

Saturday March 8th ...

Brest (see below) drew 0-0 and were a half stake winner and I hope that you also got to see the free J-League preview on the main clubgowi website, which I posted last night, as Cerezo Osaka have just won 2-0.

clubgowi subscribers get around 28-30 previews per week, 52 weeks of the year, just like those two, we have losing runs along the way, but long term, progress tends to usually look like this LINK.

I am still finishing off today's newsletter(s), but subscribers are likely to get 6-7 new previews and a similar number tomorrow, to join the full service, click here.

Good Luck.

France: Ligue 2 ..............

Creteil-Brest

We previewed Brest on Tuesday , ahead of their postponed home game with Angers...

Big game for both, a single point would take the hosts out of the bottom three, all three would, amazingly for this stage of the campaign, take them above five clubs (maybe six) and as high as 12th.

Brest have won three in a row and have served us well in the last two, however, if you sat down and planned your ideal sequence of games in Ligue 2, Auxerre and Laval at home and CA Bastia on the road, would come very close to the dream scenario and tonight will be far tougher. Also, the fact that they will have played Monday-Friday-Tuesday in a very competitive league and short of options in key areas, has to be factored in.

My notes from Friday are reproduced below and were pretty good even if I do say so myself ! Laval did indeed score early (19th minute) with Brest finding two hugely valuable second half goals. Tonight they will again be without top scorer Nicolas Verdier (23-8-0), but midfielder Bruno Grougi has found some form to coincide with Brest's return to winning ways.After almost two seasons in which he had contributed just three goals and one assist in 46 starts, he has had two and two in his last three outings. It is hard to over estimate how influential he had been earlier , he was 36-10-10 in their promotion season of 09/10 and 33-9-6 and 34-9-6 in their two years in Ligue 1 where they eased to lower mid table safety at the higher level. He stopped scoring and assisting, Brest were relegated and looked bound for third tier football before he re-finds his touch, pretty amazing and if ever a Ligue 2 team had a talismanic player, it is he. I saw that Paddy Power who I know several of you can bet with, had 3.75 for him in the anytime goalscorer market, which seems reasonable, certainly better than 2.60 for Verdier who might be out for a month !

Defensively they are weaker today, with the loss of Malian right back Ousmane Coulibaly (22-0-0), he has missed three games this season through which Brest have collected just one point and conceded six goals, actually in the last 11 he has sat out, they are 0-1-10 and have conceded two or more goals in ten of those matches ! It has to be said that eight of those fixtures were in their relegation campaign, but it still makes very dismal reading, especially with Brest's other right sided defender Bernard Mendy, out with long term injury.

Obviously, they are still without Verdier and Coulibaly again misses out and it is as you were for midweek, but they will have benefited from the extra three days rest.

Creteil are getting sucked into the heart of the relegation battle and would be overtaken by Brest, were the visitors to win this evening. The hosts are prolific and have actually scored the same number of goals as top 3 team Lens and leaders Metz, but are equally free and easy at the other end of the pitch and no team has conceded more . Tonight they are without suspended left back Augusto (21-0-2....they are 0-2-5 without him and conceded at least twice in the three home games he has missed), fringe striker Nicolas Belvito and defensive midfielder Danilson da Cruz again miss out. This is a home backline that is not up to Ligue 2 standard and which is further weakened today and meeting a newly confident and better quality visitor, but one also missing a very key defensive player. I am torn  between the "over" and the visitors with the handicap start, my head is saying the latter, so I better go with that....1.5 units Brest +0.25 ball 2.17 asian line/Ibramarket.

Créteil : Kerboriou, N’Doye I. - Da Cruz, Di Bartolomeo, Diarrassouba, Diedhiou C., Ikoko, Mahon de Monaghan - Djellilahine, Genest, Lafon, Lesage, Ndoye C., Sangaré, Seck - Andriatsima, Belvito, Essombé.

Brest : Thébaux - Moimbé, Falette, Traoré, Makonda, Chardonnet - Lejeune, Perez, Grougi, Ramaré, Dernis, Guidileye, Lesoimier - Alphonse, Sea, Ayité.

 

In play: Creteil have been far and away the most prolific Ligue 2 team early, with 6-1 (goals scored-conceded ) at home in the first ten minutes and scoring ten, inside the first 20 minutes. 

Good Luck.

Brest-Laval (written 28/02)

We have discussed both teams over the last seven days, Brest have been one of the few teams to do us a favour this week, when they won at CA Bastia on Monday, ahead of which I wrote ...Brest are just one place above the home side, but have an extra ten points in the bag, plus a game in hand and arrive here on the back of a win over Auxerre last week, their first in almost four months, which has give them a major confidence boost. On Friday, they meet the other bottom three team , when they host Laval and three points today would not only give them further momentum, but lift the pressure on them to win that fixture. They were a Ligue 1 side last season and have a lot more quality in their ranks than the hosts, although neither side has made the transition to Ligue 2, CAB have been unable to strengthen and make the step up, Brest came into the campaign having lost their last 11 starts in the top flight and despite a decent enough start to this season, have been unable to address the overall slide. But sometimes you have to hit the bottom ( or second bottom !) before climbing and on paper they remain a class above CAB. Coach Alex Dupont has been "able" to omit by choice, six players who played Ligue 1 football last season, including two with 53 starts appearances between them ( Mendy and Ayite), two others left behind are on loan from Monaco and Villarreal and these are just options that the hosts could only dream of.

Bastia have come from nowhere with three straight promotions, last season's third place finish surprised even them, they were ill prepared for second tier football and it was clearly a step too far and has caught up with them. Today they are without suspended centre back Mamadou Camara (22-1-1) , he is a regular starter of course, but it is hard to call anyone in this squad key. However, he also missed the game last week and all three goals came from players either able to run at the centre of the defence unchallenged or scored from headers (two) by players unmarked in the box and Brest will surely have taken note.To be honest, offensively CAB did not look too bad there and had a lot of attempts on goal, albeit mostly from distance, so this could easily develop into a shootout if the first goal come early enough, but anything less than a win, will be points lost for Brest. Away win.

They won that 1-0 and a follow up win this evening might take them out of the drop zone. However, they do have that quick turnaround referred to above to contend with and also the loss of top scorer Nicolas Verdier (23-8-0), he has been replaced by Jonathan Ayité who is experienced at a higher level (see above) and who is second top scorer, albeit only with three goals. Apart from that, no changes to the squad and I suspect rotation will be absolutely minimal.

Laval are coming from losing a shootout with Istres by the odd goal in seven, a match which we previewed ....

Istres gave themselves a little breathing space last week with those three points against Tours, but are still in the heart of the relegation battle and with Laval in the bottom three, today falls firmly into the clubgowi mantra of two struggling teams equaling goals camp.

Laval's last four starts have only produced a total of two goals, but they know they have to gamble today and that their next three starts ( they also play the other two in the drop zone) are going to be season defining matches. Also, the five previous home matches they have played this season against bottom eight teams have all gone "over" at an average of 4.2 goals per game, they are without central defender Miodrag Stosic (12-0-0) and left sided midfielder Amara Baby (17-4-0) this evening, but nothing too bad and I expect them to play their part in an exciting contest.

Istres looked lively offensively last week, but in truth had little to beat, with Tours offering minimal resistance until late in the game, but we know the visitors are suspect defensively and they have not kept a clean sheet in 19 away starts, one is unlikely today, both to score and this to go "over".

This kind of falls into the two struggling teams camp, but Brest have only gone "over" in 32% of starts this season and in only two of their last 13 and are missing their top scorer, but it would not take much for this to open up and one of those "overs" was the reverse fixture.

Laval arrive beat up and without centre backs Malik Couturier (23-0-1) and Miodrag Stosic, defensive midfielder Hassane Alla (23-2-3), left winger Amara Baby (17-4-0) and right winger Sébastien Renouard (15-2-1). It is defensively they worry me and whilst I think they have a chance of winning today at decent odds (3.60+) ,  it is almost impossible to see them keeping a clean sheet given that they will leave gaps and look vulnerable at the back. We spoke about the increase in goals in Ligue 2 recently and they are still averaging 2.45 per game and I think we will see both teams score tonight and I think the best value is 1.25 units "over" 2.25 goals 2.17 asian line/Ibramarket.

Only seven road goals for Laval this season, but six came before the break and another would nicely open this match up.

Brest : Thébaux - Moimbé, Falette, Traoré, Makonda, Chardonnet, Coulibaly - Perez, Grougi, Ramaré, Dernis, Guidileye, Lesoimier - Alphonse, Sea, Ayité.

Laval : Vanhamel, Hautbois - Rippert, Perrot, Belaud, Ben Djemia - Robic, Mimoun, Adéoti, Gonçalves, Lolohéa, Tibéri, G. Coulibaly - Ma. Diallo, Bekamenga, Toudic.