Wednesday, March 05, 2014

Wednesday March 5th .....

Hosts have not exactly thrived in recent friendlies winning just four of their last ten and conceding freely, an average of 1.9 per game and at least twice in five of those, including all three against South American opposition in Argentina, Ecuador and Paraguay. Home boss
Joachim Lowe knows his squad is not at it's best right now and said this week...."On paper we have a top team with top quality and top individuals, but the reality looks a little different. "The truth is not so nice because many of our players have been injured for a long time and don't have much rhythm, be it due to a dip in form or niggling injuries, which is why we need to use these next two and a half months to improve and do everything to reach top form."The clock is ticking and I'm making an appeal to everybody to prepare as best as they can and to invest all they can, not only to be physically but also psychologically ready for this. We need a very good core and some of my players are still showing deficiencies."

Low has given his younger players a chance, calling up four uncapped players in Shkodran Mustafi, Andre Hahn, Matthias Ginter and Pierre-Michel Lasogga, the latter has subsequently withdrawn, but it gives you some idea of the way the coach is approaching this. 

He is clearly looking at the bigger picture and knows that today is not overly important and he has promised the top Bundesliga clubs, with Bayern and Dortmund in Champions League contention, Schalke and Leverkusen too, but that pair are on their way out of the competition, that he will go easy on their players. They are already without Thomas Muller, Lars Bender, Sami Khedira  Julian Draxler and Marco Reus and will rest or give limited game time to several others, Mesut Ozil is in a bit of a slump with Arsenal and we might see a similar line to the one which lost 4-3 to the US in Washington, or who drew 3-3 on home soil with Paraguay. Germany started slowly in both of those , conceding five goals in total before the break, they also allowed a Zlatan less Sweden to score two first half goals in Stockholm back in October .Chile are better than all of those IMO and have impressed in recent friendlies, drawing 2-2 with Spain, beating England at Wembley 2-0 , losing out narrowly to Brazil (they had drawn with them six months earlier) and then putting four unanswered goals past Costa Rica. Interestingly they have scored 10 first half goals in their last seven friendlies and there must be a good chance they can get an early goal tonight, maybe two, if Germany are again so lacklustre early.

Chile are a talented bunch and impressed greatly at Wembley, players like Alexis S├ínchez, Eduardo  Vargas and Arturo Vidal need little introduction to European football fans and the midfield especially is well established and experienced, with five having 50+ appearances to their name and all,in footballing terms at their peak aged in their late 20's.
I will take my main bet on the South Americans with the handicap start, but for the reasons outlined, early goals could certainly be on the cards again and I am hugely attracted to the 3.50+ for Chile to score twice if you can find that.

1.5 units Chile +1 ball 2.33 asian line/Ibramarket.

Back shortly.

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