I have been following the Madrid Masters very closely this week and would like to pass on my views for today's action.
Tomas Berdych is a crazy price to beat Rafael Nadal, he can be backed around the 3.40 mark on Betfair and that is simply wrong. He leads the h2h 2-1, all matches have gone the distance, the Czech player winning the two hard court encounters, Rafa's victory coming on his beloved clay.
They know each others game well, having been practice partners for sometime. Berdych is well suited by the conditions in Madrid, at over 600m above sea level the ball is really flying through the air and he was averaging over 10 aces per set, in his win over Andy Roddick.
What I really like is in their last meeting, he restricted Nadal to just 3 break points in a long match. Going to play a little on the straight win and a larger bet on the LAY of Nadal to win 2-0 in sets.
David Nalbandian has disappointed many supporters recently with some very lack lustre displays and that is being kind, on occasion he has looked like he just doesn't care. He has shown a lot more fight this week, in coming back from losing situations against Benneteau and Henman, but played poorly to get in those situations in the first place.
Today he meets Marat Safin, who is completely bonkers, but a world class player, who will return to the top ten next year. Marat holds a 6-1 h2h record, his only loss coming on the clay of Roland Garros. They met in the five set final here a couple of years ago and the Argentine never got a look in, the Russian, who grew up in Spain, winning in 3 very easy sets. Serving 15 aces , earning 13 break points and dominating all stats.
Think we could chance a little on him to win in straight sets today, if the serve is working well, he should win comfortably.
2 points Safin to beat Nalbandian 2-0 sets 2.52 betfair
1 points Berdych to beat Nadal 3.40 betfair
lay 3 points Nadal to win 2-0 sets circa 2.16 betfair
Good Luck.
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