Saturday, March 05, 2011



I simply feel that the odds are wrong in this game and that the "over" option has been wildly overpriced. We were involved in the City midweek game ( I have reproduced my notes below) when they somehow beat Oxford 3-1, we got our money back with the "saver" bet there , but United were well on top and passed City off the pitch at times, despite shooting themselves in the foot with TWO own goals. City have not yet replaced Hoyte, who is out for the season and I explained how lost they have looked in his absence defensively, but this is a team who know where the goal is and Ashley Grimes and Delroy Facey are proving a handful for all defences at this level, they are "over" in 14 of their last 18 games. Stanley play a very open style, both at the Crown ground and on the road, where they are without a clean sheet in 14 starts.

Neither team has any relegation concerns, both sit seven points off the playoffs with games in hand on some of the teams above them, they will surely go al out for three points, with a draw of little value to either. The reverse fixture was very open, Stanley won 3-0 efefctively sealing the win with two early strikes, but City had plenty of chances despite finishing with ten men, they hit the woodwork and also missed a sitter when the game was still in the balance and there could/should have been more goals in the game.

With Scorer Street just around the corner from Sincil Bank how can there not be goals ?

"over" 2.5 goals 2.17

Good Luck.


We have discussed Oxford United quite a lot over the last couple of seasons and done well in backing them, including in the recent 3-0 win at Morecambe the preview for which is reproduced below, to save my two fingered typing skills from overwork. That was the U's last road start and the three points took them right into the heart of the playoff battle, they lost ground at the weekend with a 2-0 home loss to Hereford, but they played pretty well in that, 59% possession ,19-7 in chances and were denied two penalty appeals, the first of which was blatant, so I will put that down simply as a minor blip. Hereford scored in the eighth minute, by which time the home could already have been two up and got their second with a breakaway goal as time expired, the visiting boss Jamie Pitman called it their " best performance of the season", as Oxford were all over them, it gives you some idea of the level that Chris Wilder's team are playing at. Another is that CW is not an easy man to please, but he has already said that he will probably stick with the same starting eleven, which means a three man strike force even on the road, a policy which has served them so well in recent months.

Lincoln were unbeaten in five before a 2-0 home loss to Chesterfield and then a 4-2 defeat at Barnet on saturday. The first of those was 0-0 early when key City defender Gavin Hoyte ( on loan from Arsenal) went off injured, he is unavailable again tonight and they have conceded six goals in some 160 minutes in his absence. I have just watched extended highlights of the Barnet game, the home side were 3-0 up at the half, it should have been five, as they hit the woodwork twice and the City defending was shambolic, they could not handle or stop crosses into the box and big visiting target man James Constable will be rubbing his hands with glee if he has also watched those "lowlights". Very hard to see the home side keeping a cleansheet, but they do pose a strong offensive threat of their own, probably goals in this, would not put you off the "over", but I will take the away team off level ball and a tiny saver on four or more goals , 1-3 or something similar will do nicely !

1.5 units Oxford level ball 1.94
0.5 units "over" 3.5 goals 3.75 + ..... 4.0 in places.

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