Saturday, May 07, 2011


I cannot start the day without a few words about Severiano Ballesteros who passed away yesterday aged just 54, following a three year long battle against a brain tumour. This was one scrap he couldn't win, but typical of him, he was still fighting until the very end.

Seve was a one off, a cavalier swashbuckling golfer who was loved by fans of the sport the world over. He almost singlehandledly dragged european golf up by it's cleats and restored self belief that they could compete against the americans. Seve was a giant on the course and no one who ever saw him play at his pomp will forget the thrill, he was simply the most charismatic player to ever pick up a club. RIP Seve.


We have seen quite a big increase in the number of goals in the Championship up 11.5 % from two seasons ago. There are not too many more "overs" just that the games that are going "over" are really going "over", something that we have touched upon in recent weeks.

Today is the last round of games, a day when much is already decided, teams relax, look to entertain and open up, it has something of a pre seson feel about the matches where there is nothing at stake.

In the last fours seasons on this day an average of five matches have produced at least four goals and backing them all blindly would have made you decent returns. However, looking a litle more closely I think it is the relegated teams which provide the key to the day, in the last five years, thirteen teams have come into the final day already relegated, their games have averaged 4.923 goals, only one did not go "over" the 2.5 goal line and nine produced at least five goals. Today we have three Sheffield United, Preston and Scunthorpe, each will want to send their supporters off with a positive memory for the summer and a win if possible, rememeber there are season tickets to be sold for next season and also this is the last time they will be playing second tier football for a while, which should be motivation in itself. Let's look in a little more detail at one of them................


Swansea are playoff bound, they could still clinch second spot, depending upon what Cardiff do elsewhere and on the back of two fine wins, will probably now want to carry on that run and form into the post season. United have been playing quite well in recent weeks, scoring 8 in their last three, including three on the road at Reading another top six side and creating any number of chances at home to Barnsley last week, when they should have scored enough to have won a couple of games. Their last four starts have all produced at least four goals and now that they have found some attacking flair, it seems pointless for them to suddenly ditch that approach at this late, late stage. They will atack, Swansea can pass teams to death on a gong day and will enjoy the extra space, definitely think this will go over and I could easily see both scoring two or more, United scored three at Reading inside 50 minutes, you can get 20-1 for them to do the same here in 90, which might be a fun bet if you are so inclined and of an adventurous nature.

2 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.0 general quote..... these notes were written on Thursday afternoon.... anything above 1.90 is ok, maybe for slightly reduced stakes.

0.5 units "over" 3.5 goals 3.60 + ...3.75 William Hill.

Good Luck.

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