Sunday, January 13, 2013

Sunday Newsletter..........

 Below is  a copy of today's newsletter (only slightly censored) , which was sent to subscribers this morning. It might not be the best, or most detailed that they will receive this month, or even this week, but if you can read it and think that you would not be a better punter by getting to see a copy every day, then you are probably either deluded, or already making enough from betting not to need other employment. If you do not fall into either category, then you should seriously consider signing up to the service. Full details are on this page of the website and if you need to ask any questions, please email me on ....

Sunday January 13th

The last 36 hours have been a roller coaster of emotions, after a fantastic Friday, it was very tough not to see either Bolton Wanderers or Everton clinch the win, Bologna did save us a little and in the Sony Open, Charles Howell III stayed on course for a top ten finish and hopefully he can get the job done this evening.

The 49ers beat Green Bay 45-31, Colin Kaepernick stole all the headlines, but the return of Justin Smith was very important , San Francisco are now circa 3.25 to win the Super Bowl and a win for one (or two ?) of the outsiders tonight, would see those odds fall further.

There was a really big win for Watford in the Championship, which combined with a home defeat of Hull City, helped both our long term positions on them and league leaders Cardiff City.

Likewise Brentford in League 1, the top three all won, but none of the five below did and a gap, at least to the teams outside the playoff places, is starting to appear, the Bees have a game in hand of the top two, who both have to come to Griffin Park, leaders Tranmere Rovers visit this next weekend. Three or four oddsmakers have made Brentford favourites for L1 this morning.

Considering how few outright/ long term bets we have had, we have truly incredible positions on SF( 15.0 ... now 3.25), Watford ( 15.0 promotion .... now 5.0), Cardiff City (13.0 now 1.70), Manchester United (3.50 ... now 1.33)  and Brentford up to (34.0/ 9.25.... now 6.0 /2.25), if you have backed even two or three of those, you have some really exciting weeks ahead and I know that a couple of you are on all of them. I think come the end of the season, we will see yesterday as a very key day for us.

Today ......

PGA Tour.... Sony Open

I will hope that CH3 has another solid round and clinches a top ten finish, the only three players in front of him are Russell Henley -17, Scott Langley -17 and Tim Clark -14. Not going to waste too much time on this, but long term readers will know that we came ultra close with Clark towards the end of last season @ 25-1 and this is a course which sets up perfectly for him. I cannot find (wrong folder ?) those old notes on the South African this morning, which is very annoying, but basically after a long time as a nearly man, he got a breakthrough big win and then shortly afterwards got a serious elbow injury, once recovered after missing a year, he went close to following up a couple of times in the second half of last season and he will win in 2013, quite possibly today. He seemed very relaxed in interview on Friday after his second round ....

Q.  How nice to be bogey free for 2013.

  Hopefully we can keep that going.  Yeah, it's nice.  Again, I've always enjoyed playing this golf course.  It really suits my eye, and you know, if you're playing good, you can manage to do that.  But it's certainly not easy.

Q.  How much patience was required in this round for you to go out and par the first eight holes?

  Yeah, it was‑‑ you know, there's just not that many real birdie chances.  I mean, you've got to hit in the fairway, and it was fine.  I knew I'd get some chances coming in with some par‑5s.  But any time you're making pars out there, you're not losing too much ground.

Q.  We talked about your injury status and last year kind of a trial situation.  Are you 100 percent confident in all the body parts now?

  Yes, I think so.  Obviously I've still got to take care of myself and look after it, but at least coming out to the golf course, I feel like I'm pretty much 100 percent.

Q.  You're going to get to sleep in on Saturday, maybe get in some beach time.

Yeah, I'll be going to the beach right now.

Q.  Just talk a little bit about your comfort zone on this golf course.

Yeah, it's strange.  I think when I come here it reminds me a lot of Durban, South Africa, near where I grew up.  The weather is the same, the grasses are the same, and it's not an overly long golf course, and it plays firm.  Yeah, if you're driving it good, for a guy like me, I'm going to get some run out there and have shorter irons in.  It really is just a course that suits me.

I think he will go close this evening, he has three strokes to make up on the pair ahead of him, but it would be easy for them to focus too much on what the other is doing and not on the rest of the field. 0.75 units Tim Clark to win 5.0 + there is some 6.0 around and up to 5.9, but just for peanuts on the exchanges.

The two televised Premier League games are very attractive fixtures and fun to watch, but I cannot find a betting angle.

La Liga: Real Sociedad- Deportivo 

We sided with the visitors last week and they posted a much needed 1-0 home win over highflying Malaga, ahead of which I wrote....
Massive game for Deportivo, bottom of the table three points from safety with three of their next four, including the next two away from their beautifully situated home stadium. New home coach Domingos José Paciência will be looking to impress right from the start and will have the home troops well and truly fired up for this.

On the pitch it is hard to know how things could have gone any better for the visitors in 2012 and they ended the year with a 3-2 defeat of Real Madrid, but their well documented off the field problems seem sure to catch up with them eventually and in the meantime, it is true that domestically they have struggled a little on the road, where they play on the counter and show little of the offensive swagger we see at the La Rosaleda stadium. They sit back and try to hit teams on the break, a tactic which has worked wonderfully well in the Champions League, but less so in La Liga where their eight away games have only produced eight goals and they have ridden their luck in posting three wins.

No real problems for either side, Malaga have several fringe and long term injuries, of which biggest name is defensive midfielder Jeremy Toulalan (7-0-0), he has not featured much this season, but it is worth noting that he played in two of the road wins and also in noteworthy away points in Milan and Zenit and they look more solid when he is giving the backline protection. I do not think the visitors will have much to feed off today, we will not see Depor being too gung ho, that is not Paciência's style at all and he has been preaching two things to his players all week, "concentration and hard work". I have to take something on what is sure to be a fired up host and
very nice odds with the draw no bet option.That was a nice win and very solid performance, the new coach looks to have got them sorted out defensively in double quick time. Hosts have problems and are missing both central defenders in Mikel González (18-2-0) and Iñigo Martínez (16-1-0), right back Daniel Estrada (10-0-0), back up centre back Liassine Cadamuro is at the ACN and the hosts look very vunerable at the back. Keeper Claudio Bravo has also been nursing a knock all week. 1.5 units Deportivo +0.5 ball 2.04 asian line/ Ibramarket.

Sociedad : Bravo, Zubikarai,Carlos Martínez, Ansotegi, De la Bella, José Ángel, Pardo, Illarra, Ros, Elustondo, Markel, Zurutuza, Xabi Prieto, Ifrán, Vela, Agirretxe, Chory Castro, Griezmann.
Ligue 1 : Nice-Valenciennes
Nice: Delle, Hassen - Civelli, Genevois, Gomis, Kolodziejczak, Palun, Pejcinovic - Abriel, Anin, Diaz, Digard, Eysseric, Meriem, Pied - Bauthéac, Bosetti, Cvitanich, Maupay

Valenciennes: Leca, Penneteau - Angoua, Bong, Ducourtioux, Isimat-Mirin, Lala, Mater, Nery - Da Silva, Dossevi, Gomis, Saez, Sankharé, Sanchez - Aboubakar, Le Tallec, Nguette


I am leaving the two games and will be cheering on the "upsets" to aid the Niners .
Good Luck.

Edit: I don't give up easily and found some of those Tim Clark notes ...

Written August 19th.... We spoke about Tim Clark ahead of the final round at the Travelers Championship in June .....Tim Clark has one win in the US and it is a biggy ( the Players Championship) but is something of a nearly man with nine runner up spots and has not yet built on that breakthrough win, which is now more than two years ago, but he missed most of 2011 through elbow surgery, so perhaps it will still happen, he and Kuchar are -7 for the closing six holes and look the most likely to put in a big run today.

He was off the pace going into that round, but we took a little at 25-1,the South African shot a 67 and came close, finishing in fourth place ( one hole cost him dear), he has since played four events and after returning from the rigors of the Open at Lytham, has finished 15th in the Canadian Open and 11th at the PGA Championship, so clearly he is near the top of his game. He has played wonderfully tee to green this week and is ranked number one for greens in regulation, but the putter has let him down and two short putts missed on the back nine, probably cost him the overnight lead, He is due to sink a few and didn't seem to be overly worried about this in his post round interview.....

Q.  I'm going to count myself very honored getting to watch that ball striking display today.
TIM CLARK: Yeah, I felt like I was in control of my ball probably better than the first two days and just wasn't able to make the putts I needed but, you know, it's nice to hit it like that today and obviously that's going to do me good tomorrow.
Q. You must be feeling good going into tomorrow with such control of the ball. The putter, is that an issue or just leave yourself in spots that were hard to make from?
TIM CLARK: No. I just -- I left a couple above the hole which that's going to happen out here. The first two days I was making those putts. Nothing to worry about. Just got to come out tomorrow and really be confident that I'm going to make them.


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