Saturday, January 19, 2013

This is what you could have received ....

Virtually all of you will have received at least a partial copy of yesterday's email notes, which are reproduced in full below, in your inbox. If not, it probably means you are not in the clubgowi database, that is easy to rectify , all you have to do is sign up for the free newsletter service, which takes about 20 seconds. You can also read more about our sponsor Ibramarket both below and on the website.

Friday January 18th

The weather is going to play a big part in things over the next couple of days, very cold tempertaures, snow and wind, especially in the UK and France are going to mean plenty of postponements.

Obviously Ligue 2 is hugely important to us on a Friday, so our biggest immediate concern, the match at Sedan has already been called off and I have decided to pass on the fixtures at Le Havre ( -6 degrees, strong wind and snow), Caen and Le Mans ( sub zero temperatures, wind, snow) , also the game at Tours where there is a mixture of heavy rain and snow forecast . They might play at one or even all of those, but it is going to make conditions unpredictable and a bit of a lottery.

Ligue 2

The weather is forecast to be far better at these two matches.

Arles- Gazelec Ajaccio

This is a real six pointer at the foot of the table, hosts are in 17th place with 21 points, Gazelec are two places lower and have one point less. Both have found a little form recently, the visitors collecting seven points from their last three starts, a sequence that has seen them get back in touch with the clubs above them and they are actually only four points adrift of Auxerre who are in a giddy 11th spot. Arles six match unbeaten run in the league has been far less profitable or headline catching, as it involved five straight draws, sandwiched inbetween was a loss to lower tier opposition in the cup, but to be honest, they did not need the distraction of an extended run in that competition. However, their only loss under coach Pierre Mosca came on his debut, when he had only been in charge a couple of days. He will be disappointed that he has yet to win in front of home supporters, but this is a very good opportunity and much needed with Arles next three starts coming against Angers (5th), Monaco (2nd ) and leaders Nantes. The board have shown real confidence in Mosca and allowed him to bring in Jonathan Tinhan who has played Champions League football with Montpellier this season, Benjamin Psaume from Ligue 1 Troyes and this week Raphaël Cacérès on permanent transfer from Dijon. This is quite eyecatching, Cacérès is  (17-5-0) this season and played a major part in Dijon's promotion winning team of 2010-11 and in Troyes team which finished third last season where he was ( 30-10-2), he is a "serious" Ligue 2 player.  He is not in the squad tonight, the deal was only completed yesterday, but it is a big statement of intent and will lift the club, Tinhan (90 mins) and Psaume (off the bench) , both made their debuts last week and will be more in sync with their team mates today. Big game for Arles and Gazelec's fate is going to be decided on home soil, not on the road. The visitors know they have an issue between the sticks and new signing Raïs M'Bolhi is at the ACN and will not make his debut for a while yet, also missing are central defender Ibrahim Rachidi (14-0-0) and midfielder Mickaël Seymand (11-0-0). Home win for me and I think real value in the odds. 1.75 units Arles -0.25 ball 2.07 asian line/Ibramarket.

Arles-Avignon : Butelle, Yattara - Cantini, Quintin, N'Diaye, Soro, Zarour, Plessis, Rocchi, Rodriguez, Akalé, Ben Saada, Savanier, Psaume, Tinhan, Delclos.

GFC Ajaccio : Maury, Rastello - Davidas, Kehiha, Bocognano, Romey, Landre, Colinet, Dufau, Sinapi, Poggi, Laïfa, Collorédo, Rivière, Saadi, Verdier, Y.Touré.

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I am not going to keep going on about Ibramarket , but the fact that you can bet through them at TWO companies who both offer pretty much industry leading quotes, is a terrific aid in beating the bookmakers long term. Always getting the best available price at the time you bet, makes a huge difference over the course of a year and a "click" or two here or there adds up big time. As I was typing this part of the notes I looked at three of tonights matches. Best prices from the two companies available through Ibramarket meant that you could pick from the following....

Espanol ( -0.5) - Mallorca 2.02  - 1.93
Schalke ( -0.75)- Hannover 1.877 - 2.08 

Leicester City ( -0.75) - Middlesbrough 1.87 - 2.10

Average margins on the three matches were 1.24 %  That leaves no real leeway for other companies to come in under these quotes, ok, maybe the odd game, but 19 times out of 20, the best price will be with one of the two companies that you can bet via Ibramarket and on that one occasion it is not, the price will probably have disappeared by the time you track it down. It takes a lot of stress out of pre-match exchanges when you know that you are almost guaranteed to be betting at absolute top price. In addition, unlike a lot of other betbrokers/ agents Ibramarket charge absolutely no fees, best prices, high limits, no winning accounts closed and free to use ! Read more about Ibramarket on the "our sponsor " page on the clubgowi website .

Istres - Monaco

I have banged on all season about how the Monday- Friday quick turnaround has been tough to overcome, but rules are meant to be broken and with the disappointing 1-1 home draw with Laval being Monaco's only competitive start in 23 days, we can see it as a positive this time, that they play again just four days later. To be honest, I felt they looked a little rusty on Monday, despite having arranged that friendly and too often took the wrong option around the penalty area and could not have conceded at a worse time. Left sided player Tristan Dingome (6-0-1) is back in the squad tonight, the youngster is not considered a key player, but Monaco are unbeaten in the last 15 matches (10-5-0) in which he has played at least an hour,left back Layvin Kurzawa also returns and they look stronger down that flank tonight. Andreas Wolf ( 17-2-0) is out , but with a squad this size and so full of talent, it seems churlish to even mention it !

Istres have gone off the boil with 10 points from their last 10 starts, after collecting 18 from their first ten. This is more a case of finding their true level, they simply do not have the resources to compete for a promotion spot and a mid table finish is a huge success/achievement and is celebrated as such. They have a cup game in midweek against 4th tier opposition, that is a big opportunity to move into the last 16 and a deep run there , together with some much needed revenue , plus avoiding a relegation battle will be their target for the rest of this campaign, regardless of what they might say. They arrive without much admired young striker Nicolas De Preville (16-5-1) who looks on his way out of the club, centre back Eric Chelle (10-0-0) and defensive midfielder Florian Tardieu (14-1-0), he is interesting, when he plays, Istres have kept 8 cleansheets and conceded two goals in the last four starts. Without him, they have conceded 15 in six, kept no clean sheets and allowed at least three goals in four matches. Playmaker Driss Fettouhi (13-3-0) has left the club to play in the UAE. Monaco for me..... 1.75 units Monaco -0.25 ball 2.20 asian line/ Ibramarket. I am also going to suggest 0.5 units Monaco to score over 2.5 goals @ 6.50 + if you find it, there is 7.50 in a place.

Istres : Petric, Véronèse - Chafik, Sainati, Barrillon, Moulin, Bru, Cantareil, Melliti, Massengo, Tarasconi, Ba, Genest, Yahia Chrif, Akrour, Niangbo.

Monaco : Subasic, Sourzac, Caillard - Appiah, Bajrami, Coulibaly, Dingomé, Dirar, Ferreira Carrasco, Germain, Kagelmacher, Kurzawa, Mendy, Ocampos, Adriano, Poulsen, Raggi, Touré, Tzavellas

Regardless of the weather, we have a lot to cover tomorrow and some really nice selections for matches/ events that will definitely be played, there will be two emails, the first at the usual time of 10.00 which will cover the afternoon action and the follow up at 13.00 will include the evening football matches and possibly golf and tennis.

Good Luck.


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