Monday, March 17, 2008
ATP TOUR ..... INDIAN WELLS ....
CARLOS MOYA - JAMES BLAKE
This should be close and I have found a nice looking bet. Firstly, let me say that both are pretty happy with the surface and conditions in Indian Wells and arrive in decent form.
The h2h record is 5-5, with Blake leading 4-2 on hardcourts and winning four of the last five, but did lose the last, which was on clay.
Let's look a little closer at those 10 matches, all except two have gone to a deciding set. One was very early in their history, the second was in the Australian Open last year, when Moya was exhausted. the two had met just a couple of days earlier in Sydney and the Spaniard had flew there directly from winning in Chennai. That was too much for the veteran and former world number one.
I see a lot of value in this again going all the way and think the combined odds of around 34%, or 2.90 are generous for a bet that has won in 8 of their previous 10 meetings, especially when we can discard one, which was also the only Grand Slam (5 set ) match.
3.5 points Blake 2-1 sets 4.0 Expekt/Corals
2.5 points Moya 2-1 sets 6.0 Bet 365
Similar odds, or higher, are likely to be available on the exchanges a little later.