Thursday, March 20, 2008
THE CONCEPT OF VALUE .....
The "secret" of successful gambling is to get value, if you can get 2.10 a true even money shot, like the toss of a coin, then you should bet.
Jeremy Chapman, chief golf correspondent and tipster of The Racing Post, seems to have forgotten this most basic piece of gambling advice. He wrote in his preview of the CA Championship ......
"All the 10-11 for Tiger Woods to win the WGC-CA Championship went yesterday, leaving 5-6 the best available UK price, but even that is a decent price as I would probably have him as a 1-3 shot and those foolhardy enough to oppose him are more likely than not to get theirfingers burnt. "
He then went on to tip someone else in the tournament ! If he truely made Woods a 75% chance to win the tournament, to not back him at 1.83 +, is almost criminal.
Anyway, like Mr Chapman, I am looking elsewhere.
WGC CA CHAMPIONSHIP OUTRIGHT & FIRST ROUND MATCH UP
This is being played at Doral, also called the Blue Monster, because of the amount of water on the course. It was toughened up before last year and Tiff Eagle greens were laid, which are very fast, if, as it sometimes does, the wind blows, this course could get very difficult.
Tiger Woods has been made odds on, like I said last week, it is hard to argue with those odds, but they always look more attractive to lay to my eyes , as he often trades much higher in running at some stage during the tournament. In the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week, he opened at circa 2.20, yet was freely available @ 6.0 after two rounds.
I am interested in Robert Allenby, who has not won for a long time, but is showing signs of a return to his best, he is suited by conditions and always plays well at this time of the year.
Allenby is a very good driver of the ball and, like many Australians can handle the wind, as he can keep the ball low. He hits a lot of greens in regulation and the only chink in his armour over recent seasons, has been his putting, which of course, is key.
However, his stats in that department have shown clear signs of improvement in 2008 and he is currently ranked some 100 places higherin this category. This is his time of year, in 2007 he earned 75% of his total prize money, before the end of March. He also scored really well in his first rounds last year, with 17 of the 28 he played, being under par, including a fine opening 67 here last year, when he went on to finish in a tie for 3rd place.
He arrives in very decent shape, has scored 70 or less in six of the seven opening rounds he has played in 2008 and in his last three strokeplay events, has finished 7th-4th-14th, with an eyecatching 9 of his last 12 rounds under par.
With so many top players, Woods aside, struggling to find their "A" game, I like Allenby this week and am very keen on him to record a top ten finish.
In today's opening round he can also be backed to beat Arron Oberholser, who has had a tough time with injuries and has only played three tournaments in the last six months. Oberholser started with a first day 74 at Doral last year and never got into contention, recording just one round under par and that, by just a single stroke. Obviously, I fancy Allenby to see him off today.
4 points Allenby top ten finish 5.0 + exchanges, 4.50 Stan James.
5 points Allenby to beat Oberholser 1.752 Pinnacle 18 hole match.
I have also previewed four of today's football matches on the email service, details of which can be found on our website www.predictuwin.com.