Monday, June 16, 2008

EURO 2008 ...............


I can see no scenario under which Germany will not progress to the knockout stage, but have absolutely no intention of backing them giving up such a big handicap, especially when a draw will do. Having said that, there is very much a big brother- little brother relationship between these two and regardless of how the game is played, they normally win easily. Last four meetings have all been won by at least three goals, with 17 scored in total. However, now the Austrian's are playing with the world watching and surely they will fight to the very end. The last friendly in February, played here in Vienna, was typical, the hosts dominated for sixty minutes, missing any number of chances, then conceded one, followed by two more. Same old story.

Schweinsteiger is suspended, which can only be a plus for the Germans, he has been woeful and it looks like Gomez will make way, with Klose and Podolski ( two goals please), starting up front, defensively, although he is more often elsewhere, they will be without Janssen.

If you want a traditional bet on the game, if pushed,I would have to suggest Germany, but will be looking elsewhere myself. I have been following the corners market in the tournament, which are traded in-running, in Asia and offer great trading opportunities. Anyway. I feel that there is a terrific value bet on Austria to get more corners than Germany, with the hosts receiving a 1.5 corner "start".

Opposing Germany, this would have been a winner, in both opening games and Austria have shown attacking ability, just not when it comes to putting the ball into the net, they have averaged 6.5 corners per game, 1.5 more than their opponent.

I expect the hosts to at least try and make the early running and, at the other end, to be wary of giving away too many easy corners, against the physically huge visiting side. Austria had a lot of joy in the last friendly from corners, with Lehmann, dropping a couple of crosses, they might see this as the best way to strike. Germany need to "outscore" Austria by three in this market and that might not be too easy, at big odds against, it is impossible for me to pass.

5 points Austria more corners +2 handicap 2.23 asian line.

Good Luck.

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