Here is today's email in full, it has already produced a profit for subscribers, regardless of what happens in the Euro 2008 final. HJK won 3-2, stakes returned, although twice led by two goals. In the MLS game, I not only gave DC and the "over" ,but also suggested five goals was likely, the score 4-1 !
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SUNDAY JUNE 29TH
GERMANY - SPAIN
I have just lost all my notes for today and an not happy, so am typing this quickly and not in a very good mood !
We know these two sides very well after three weeks of action from Euro 2008 and it seems clear that every neutral is cheering for the Spanish. They will be without the injured David Villa, more about that later, but with Cesc Fabregas coming into the side, it is hard to see how they are weakened in any way, shape, or form. Michael Ballack was injured in training on friday and the medical team have been working round the clock, to get him fit, I cannot see any way that he will miss out, on what would be a second major international final, after suspension ruled him out of the 2002 World Cup decider. He should take his place, in what could be a very crowded midfield.
I get an inkling that we might see the best of the Germans, I am hoping that we will see the high tempo display that they put in against Portugal, rather than the lethargic team that took the field against Turkey. This has been the way the tournament has gone so far, with few teams performing well a second time in a row, Russia looked fantastic in the quarters and devoid of energy or ideas against the Spanish. Who, themselves stepped up on a poor showing against Italy, where they quickly run out of a plan "b".
Man for man, Spain are the better team, mentally, the Germans are clearly stronger. We are already on them outright at 5.0 and that is interest enough, if pushed for a selection, extra time would not surprise me this evening.
In the top goalscorer market,Villa leads on 4 goals, with Podolski on 3, Guiza, Schweinsteiger, Klose and Ballack all have two each. We are on Podolski and Klose at huge odds, so also have an interest here, with Villa out and Guiza starting on the bench, we are still in the hunt. A goal for Podolski, or a brace for Klose would give us a share of the spoils and a good payday, which, if the game opens up, is not out of the question.
So, plenty of interest already for us. I will put up one selection though, in a market that we have been following closely through the tournament, namely corners. The slow German central defenders, are happy to concede corners, secure in the knowledge that they have a big height advantage against most teams and a massive one over Spain, the smallest side in the tournament.
Corner wise, they have only outscored Poland (4-3), they conceded at least 7 in the other 4 games, 8 in each of the last three, only averaging 4.2 themselves.
Spain are mean in this department, only conceding 13 all tournament, nine against the Russians in two starts, so just 4 in total ,in games verses Italy, Sweden and Spain . Given that they are likely to have most of the ball tonight, they should again win this market, they will certainly be very wary of giving their opponents any easy dead ball situations, given the huge height differential.
7.5 points Spain to win more corners 1.62 asian line.
HJK HELSINKI - RoPS ROVANIEMI
Very quickly here, where I am keeping stakes small, I have received a good word about HJK, who are expected to have a strong finish (no pun intended) to the season. RoPS have started very well, they were widely tipped as relegation favourites and are in midtable at present, they have quite rightly decided to target their winable fixtures, a plan which will now, given the points in the bag, give them a chance of survival, to that end, all eyes are on on their home game with the basement club next week. Huge difference between these two clubs ,as indicated by their playing budgets for the season, with RoPS having just one third of the funds available to HJK.
4.5 points HJK -1 ball 1.76 asian line.
DC UNITED - LA GALAXY
The two biggest names in US football, David Beckham and Landon Donovan come to Washington and a huge crowd is expected. All who arrive will be expecting goals, as we have the two top scoring offenses (24 and 31 respectively) , facing the leakiest defences (25 and 24). It is difficult not to see this developing into a shoot out.
I told you last week that DC are a team to keep on our side, they are unbeaten in five, with four wins and look firmly back on track.
The Galaxy have all their talent going forward and have scored three or more, six times in 13 starts. At the other end they are conceding almost two, per game. This is almost entirely down to the salary cap, all the money has been spent on, well, you know who and Donovan, the dregs of what is left, on the defence. Their gameplan is clear, you score two, we will score three and so on.
Hosts will be without Mediate, Olsen and Doe, no real concerns there, they are one of the few teams that can compete offensively with LA and at present, look stronger at the back, but not by much !
I have to side with them and the "over" looks a given, five goals this evening would not surprise.
4.5 points DCUnited -1/2 ball 2.10 general quote.
5 points "over" 3 goals 1.98 asian line.