Thursday, June 05, 2008




We (subscribers) are on Sveta outright at 9.0 and again at 7.4, she is currently trading at circa 4.0, so a very nice payday in prospect and the option of taking an assured profit, if she makes the final. I feel that she matches up well with Safina, who has had two gruelling matches this week and is starting to look a little drained. In addition to which, she made the Berlin final, which was a roller coaster ride of a tournament for her and mentally exhausting.This is her first Grand Slam semi and I personally feel that it is one game too many. I certainly do not seeing Sveta letting her back into the game from a winning position, should the situation arise, like Dementieva and Sharapova felt compelled to.

Kuznetsova leads the h2h 4-4 and is 3-1 on the surface, including a 7-6 6-0 win at Roland Garros in 2006. She has not dropped a set in paris this year and appears very focused. Obviously, there is no need for us to get overly involved today, but if you are not on the outright bet , then I do think that she will win.

5 points Kuznetsova to beat Safina 1.66 Pinnacle/ exchanges.

Next we have the Serbian Cup final, with these two not only in contention for their "national title", but also the world number one position. Ivanovic has been made a prohibitively short priced favourite for today's battle, I can understand why, to a degree, but it seems another over reaction, 1.40 let's get real ! She did show nerves serving out for the match in the quarters, even though she held a huge lead at the time and if Jankovic can keep it close, there is every chance that they will resurface.

Ivanovic leads the h2h 5-1, but most have been close and the only meeting on clay, came on the "green" version in Amelia Island, a very different surface to the one at RG. She has looked good the last two years here, making the final last year and is yet to drop a set this time round, infact, she has won the last 5, for the loss of only 13 games. Sounds good doesn't it ? However, aside from Schnyder, the only seeded player she has faced is the #30 ranked Caroline Wozniacki and no one has yet pushed her. Today she will have to work much harder for her money, against her defensively sound opponent.

Jankovic is a couple of years older and has more experience on clay, where she has won 80 matches, almost double Ivanovic's tally. She has won the big title in Rome two years running and has also yet to drop a set enroute to the semis.

With regard to the shoulder/arm injury, there was not much sign in the win over Suarez-Navarro, where she appeared to hit the ball freely,but she flew home to Serbia after the game for treatment, so there must be something in it. Having said that it did not trouble her in the game, she had a day of rest yesterday and the weather is forecast to be warmer, with less humidity today, which will definitely help. I cannot take too much notice of this and in any case, Ivanovic had both ankles taped in the quarters and admitted to a small concern about one of them. As I told you earlier in the week, tennis players ALWAYS have something wrong with them, they are a bunch of hypochondriacs !

These two know each other very well, Ivanovic will be the agressor and will be tring to keep to her oppent's forehand,as much as possible. JJ will be the more defensive and looking to play extended rallies. If she can stay close and make Ivanovic think about things, especially the serve ,Jankovic can make a mockery of these odds, I certainly think she is very likely to trade lower in running.

Therefore, I am taking her at 3.45 on the exchanges and am likely to trade out if she takes a set, but will stick with it, for the purposes of the email selection.

4.5 points Jankovic to beat Ivanovic 3.45 Betfair.

Good Luck.

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