SENT TO SUBSCRIBERS EARLY THIS MORNING ....
WEDNESDAY JULY 15TH
BRAY WANDERERS- CHARLTON ATHLETIC
Bray are in a lot of trouble at the foot of the Premier League, three points adrift and four behind Drogheda, whom they travel to meet on Friday, in just 48 hours time. That is obviously a vital game in terms of their survival prospects and they will not take any chances in a meaningless friendly game. Charlton are on a mini tour of Ireland, all available first team squad members have travelled and they posted an easy 3-0 win in Wexford at the weekend, with some 19 players eventually taking some part.
New signing from Leeds Frazer Richardson will make his debut tonight, Athletic will once again start with a strong line up and with Dickson, Burton and Mcleod upfront they surely have far too much firepower for a weakened Wanderers line up.
6 points Charlton -1/2 ball 1.83 general quote. NOW -3/4 BALL 1.74
TOUR DE FRANCE
STAGE 11 OUTRIGHT.... VATAN-SAINT-FARGEAU
I have left the tour alone since Stage 2, when we were firmly with Mark Cavendish (reproduced below), who was about as easy a winner as you will ever see. He is so strong over the final 200m that if his team deliver him there, in my book, the British rider is 1.10 to win.
He won again yesterday, his third win of the year , despite in his own words not riding at 100%, by which he meant making a few mistakes. I really think that he is overpriced today, for a very similar stage, which contains no major climbs and is fairly flat. The reason that his odds are so much bigger probably have something to do with the final 400m being slightly uphill. I really do not see this as a problem, the previous km is slightly downhill which should enable the Columbia team to bring him to the fore, no one is going to even notice this minor gradient at the finishing line.
Of course, there can always be a breakaway winner, but it looks unlikely today, a sprint finish is on the cards and if that happens, we want to be on MC !
5.5 points Mark Cavendish to win 3.20 exchanges........ plenty of liquidity at 3.15+ as I type . WON !
STAGE 2 OUTRIGHT
The tour starts in earnest today, with the stage from Monaco to Brignoles, the 187km leg seems almost certain to end in a sprint finish and baring accidents, i can only see one winner. If the finish were a tiny bit straighter I would say he was something of a banker, a term I rarely use.
The 24 yo won four stages last year, has stepped up on that form this year, winning the Milan-Sanremo, three stages of the Giro d'iItalia when he then decided to rest and prepare for the main event, then collecting another two wins in the Tour de Suisse. He is simply the fastest thing on two wheels, certainly since I put my bike away and he is head and shoulders above the other sprinters, almost literally, as he sits far further forward on his machine, than any other racer. This allied to the fact that his upper body doesn't move at all, he is totally fearless and has a natural speed that others only dream of, mean that over the final 200m no one can live with him. If his team deliver him there, he will win.
9 points Cavendish to win 2.10 general quote (Hills/exchanges).... 2.25 Corals.
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