Sunday, May 09, 2010


It was from the school of the blindingly obvious, but at least Tranmere won comfortably enough yesterday and kept our really good run going.

I will be a little more adventurous today and whilst I have bet three football games already, which is and will always remain ,our bread and butter, I want to talk a little about golf this morning and the final round of the Players Championship, often referred to as the fifth major.

As we enter the final round at Sawgrass, once again Lee Westwood leads the way, he held his nerve well at the Masters, will have learnt a lot from that and is a proven worldwide winner, but I do think he is plenty short enough in the betting and that there is better value out there.

I am very keen on final round stats,as long term readers of the blog will know, this is the "money" round and proven sunday performers tend to produce the goods time and time again.

Ben Crane has played well week in week out in Round 4, since returning from injury in 2008. That year he was ranked 38th on tour for sunday scoring, climbed to 6th last year and is a very solid 26th this year after just seven rounds, to put that into perspective, it would put him in the top five on tour for the three seasons combined.

Today he is paired with Lucas Glover, who is/was 98th, 121st and 145th for the three years respectively. That means that in 17 final rounds last season he averaged almost 1.8 strokes per round more than Crane and a whopping 2.86 this campaign, if you are not big golf fans you will have to take my word that these are HUGE numbers.

After an up and down opening round Crane, who is known as the slowest player on tour has played flawless golf for the last 33 holes, which he has completed in seven under par. Just two strokes off the pace he might be the one to benefit from a Westwood slip up , at 10-1 plus is a working man's price and with a title under his belt already this year, there will be less pressure on the man from Oregon, but it is the odds against quote to beat Glover that I am most interested in.

Sawgrass suits Crane perfectly and after finishing 5th last year and 6th in 2008, he is a winner in waiting. I have to say that BC a committed christian and a man who never does anything in a hurry, would not be your first choice for a drinking buddy , or someone to organise your stag night,unless you wanted to be home before nine o'clock. But it also means he makes few mistakes out on the course and very little fazes him.

I would suggest splitting your stake across two bets with the much bigger slice on the two ball bet.

75% unit Crane to beat Glover 2.05 in two ball betting general quote ............. 2.0 is acceptable, we lose on the draw, if you can bet with Pinnacle, the 1.80 draw no bet option is probably just about better.

25% unit Crane outright 11.0 + ...... 11.42 Pinnacle as I write, you will probably get similar on the exchanges.

Good Luck.

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