Wednesday, June 16, 2010


Chile - Honduras over 2 goals 1.88

I think that today will be the day the tournament opens up and we see a few goals, we are already on Sanchez to be top scorer for Chile and surely this is a match both teams will be looking to win, with a meeting against Spain still to come. The South Americans play a very open 3-3-1-3 formation, their 18 qualification games average exactly three goals per game and this is a team far happier on the front foot. Honduras have a number of injuries to players in key positions, but they are not the sort of side to sit back for too long and if they concede, this could get very stretched. They will take heart from a 2-0 win over Chile in Florida early last season, but that was virtually a "home" game for them and far more important to the Hondurans, who were warming up for a tournament, than Chile, who played this as a one off game.Normally goals when these two Confederations meet and today should follow suit. I now understand that Suazo might be available to play, hard to understand why they would risk him after such an injury, so surely more chance he will start on the bench if at all, but whilst I would be happier if he sits this one out, if he does play, it certainly doesn't hinder this bet, so not all bad news ! BTW for those of you that like to follow the money ( I am not amongst you) Chile have been big drifters in the last 24 hours or so, giving up the one goal they have gone from 1.96 to 2.26, a massive 30 clicks bigger.

Uruguay -0.25 2.16

South Africa were very nervous in their opener and could have been three down at the break, they were much stronger in the second period and might even have won the game with a little more composure in front of goal. However, now the level of expectation has probably risen further and to meet another top class team, so soon afterwards, is going to be very demanding for the mainly inexperienced hosts . One thing is for sure, if they give Uruguay as much space as Mexico got early on, Forlan and Suarez are going to punish them. The South American side are very hard working and perhaps even more organised than Mexico and comfortably held France in their opener, despite ending the game with ten men. Their front two are bound to get more service today with a different mindset and approach from the "visitors", in a game I expect to be far more open and ultimately, for class to tell.

Wednesday World Cup games "over" 7.25 goals 2.25 Sbobet.

You already know that I like at least a couple of goals in the Chile-Honduras game, I feel the Spain- Switzerland game has the potential to be anything score wise, the Swiss were defensively a bit of a mess in recent starts, especially against Costa Rica, in a very open encounter, but are not without threat at the other end of the pitch. Spain have finally found their goal scoring touch with six against Poland and it is worth noting that in the last two World Cup groups and at Euro 2008 they scored at least eight in the group stage and opened with at least three goals, including four against both Russia (2008) and Ukraine (2006). The SA-Uruguay game seems certain to be fairly open, I expect both to look for the win and in the second series of matches we will surely see teams a little more relaxed and ready to play,which is normally the case in the group stages at knockout tournaments. Therefore, I like the look of this "over" bet across the three games, where each has four goal potential IMO .

Good Luck.


Sport said...

I took Chile -1 a few days ago @ 2.
As you said now it's 2.20 (at the same bookmaker).
What is the reason for this big shift in your opinion? Simply all the unders so far that go against big handicaps in general or a specific reason?

Oh, I definitely like postings
late in the evening :)

The Natural said...

Hi Sport,

Chile are now up to 2.29, guess the easy answer to your question is that only weight of money moves the money that much. It has been one way traffic for the last 24 hours.
It could be that public opinion has swung after betting too many favourites in this low scoring ( so far) tournament.
However, that seems unlikely, most punters tend to "chase" losers and the fact that Slovakia and Brazil etc have not covered the handicap, usually makes them more convinced that the next hot shot will. In the same way that some people (but not for long) stand in front of the roulette wheel and say that after six blacks the seventh spin HAS to come up black !
Team news seems not to be the cause either on on this occasion, so I suspect that one or possibly more of the big asian syndicates have got heavily involved with Honduras and that the bookmakers are now desperate to get some money on the other side, so in all likelyhood, Chile will be backed to some degree today, once the general public start to play the game.

Good Luck !