Sunday, September 18, 2011


Brentford were outplayed by a much better team yesterday, which pains me to write, I have gone into greater detail on my daily notes, but do not want to publish them on here. A slightly less tangoed than normal Phil Brown was showing how to make friends and influence people with plenty of fist pumping at the home crowd and "hysterical" laughter of incredulity at every decision ( not many) that went against his impressive team, all we needed to complete his performance was a song ! But that is probably just me being a sore loser, which I am not, you become accustomed to defeat as a Bees supporter !

In Serie A I have to stick with Juventus who did us a favour last weekend ( see below), for the trip to Siena. Visiting coach Antonio Conte was in charge at Siena last season and knows the players better than anyone, strengths and weaknesses. His team adapted well to his fluid 4-2-4/ 4-4-2 formation last week and saw off a poor Parma side 4-1 and could have added a couple to that tally. This is a happy hunting ground for Juve who have only ever lost here once and have won on six of their last seven visits, keeping cleansheets in four from five. Siena will be pleased with an opening 0-0 draw at Catania when they put in a very disciplined performance, but they will be have to be more expansive today and Juve can exploit that space. Juventus -0.5 ball 1.98 +

In the BMW Golf, Luke Donald shot one of only eight sub 70 rounds and closed to within two shots of Web Simpson.It would be fantastic for our Money List bet if he could edge in front today. Jim Furyk had another solid round and is in a share of 7th place, he is a projected 27th in the FedEx standings so has HUGE incentive to stay inside the top ten and land our double stake bet ( which we need !). There are three interesting two balls today, Robert Allenby- YE Yang, Martin Laird- Mark Wilson and Geoff Ogilvy- Bill Haas, so, in that order.... Yang is in 30th place in the standings, good enough to see him the last man into the Tour Championship, he needs a solid showing and it is worthwhile noting that he has improved his placing both times in the final round when starting inside the top five this season, which shows that he handles pressure extremely well. He beat Allenby by five strokes yesterday and with the Australian down in 58th place, he needs to force his way into the top 3-4 and with six strokes and 15+ players between him and that spot, it seems unlikely in the extreme. If he gambles and goes for it, or simply loses interest, he is unlikely to match the focus of Yang and the Korean looks solid to win the two ball at circa 1.95 Pinnacle. Laird has improved each day and was also one of the eight to shoot in the 60's yesterday, Wilson had a terrible day, shooting a 77, nine strokes worst than the Scottish player, he looks comfortable in 15th, but will be fearful of another horror show, he will also be nervous as he almost got a two stroke penalty which would have meant a 79. It is fair to assume he will operate a safety first approach and look to steady his ship, Laird in 29th will be looking for another 70 or better score and at 1.935 to win his two ball, he also looks a very solid bet with Pinnacle. Geoff Ogilvy is a major winner and a much better golfer than Haas IMO, he would be my value pick to win the tournament at circa 13.5 ( Betfair), although five strokes behind Justin Rose, maybe a better option would be 5.0 + in the market "without" the four shot leader. Haas is well inside the "cut" mark for next week, but having been "bubble boy" last year ( 31st) he could be excused for also being a little cautious, especially if things do not go his way early in the round and the opening holes are proving very difficult. Ogilvy is 26th on the projected Fed Ex standings and has played the closing five holes in a very fine -7 this week, in the last four times he has really been in contention on Sunday he has shot 67-67-66-66 and he seems bound to go well today, Pinnacle look to have made a big error in pricing him at 2.06 to win this two ball.

These three golf matches are all official two balls, which means that every betting company will price them, many with the tie included and several with the tie no bet option like Pinnacle.

I am going to send a follow up email today at 14.30 UK time with a look at tonight's late action ( nothing starting before 18.00).

Good Luck.

In Serie A big spending Juventus entertain Parma, in the first league match in their brand new stadium. Hosts will be very motivated to open with a win and look determined to compete for a Champions League spot this season. New coach and favourite son Antonio Conte has been given pretty much an open cheque book and some 85m euros was spent over the summer. Key signings were... Dutch midfielder Eljero Elia from Hamburger for a fee of €9m, Montenegrin forward Mirko Vucinic from Roma for a fee of €15m, Chilean midfielder Arturo Vidal from Bayer Leverkusen for a fee of €10.5m, Swiss defender Stephan Lichtsteiner from Lazio for a fee of €10m, Forward Alessandro Matri (permanent signing) from Cagliari for a fee of €15.5m; Forward Fabio Quagliarella (permanent signing) from Napoli for a fee of €10.5m, Defender Marco Motta (permanent signing) from Udinese for a fee of €3.8m, Midfielder Simone Pepe (permanent signing) from Udinese for a fee of €7.5m and Midfielder Andrea Pirlo on a free transfer from Milan.
A couple of those were already with the club, but the deals now made permanent, but you get some idea of the level of investment. Expectation is high and they now have enough depth in the squad to compete with the big three ( maybe four) and with no european involvement, I expect excuses not to be challenging with not be entertained. Milos Krasic and Mirko Vucinic have both had knocks, but trained yesterday and are included in the squad ... Juventus: Buffon, Chiellini, Pazienza, Pepe, Marchisio, Del Piero, De Ceglie, Vucinic, Barzagli, Elia, Bonucci, Toni, Pirlo, Vidal, Giaccherini, Lichtsteiner, Krasic, Storari, Matri, Sorensen.
Juve have to stop the goals conceded especially at home, where they allowed 31 ( !) last season, almost double the number they conceded on the road and a total only beaten by relegated teams. Vidal especially should give some protection to the back line and moving to the new stadium will enable them to start from scratch ( with a clean sheet ?).
Parma are operating on a shoestring budget by comparison and have a large number of Juve old boys in their ranks. The team is still relying the goals of 36 yo Hernan Crespo and he, along with playmaker Sebastian Giovinco are the star names in a team, which gives you some idea of the difference in quality and they look set for another season of struggle.Juve are drifting in asia , but are now getting very attractive 1.5 units Juventus -0.75 1.94 asian line.

Contact : stencelwade

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