TUESDAY UPDATE ....

Please check your inbox, I have just sent the "Wednesday" email, it includes two midweek football selections, one a very, very strong pick and an early selection at odds of circa 11.0 for the weekend. Currently working on my Euro 2012 outright and group selections which will be sent to subscribers on Friday, my last big tournament preview, for the African Cup of Nations, included winning  "suggestions" at odds of 6.50 and 85.0 (!), so it should be worthwhile reading.

Good Luck.

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

SUNDAY .....

I was originally very keen on the MLS fixture tonight and eager to oppose Sporting KC, but the Earthquakes are struggling with strikers coming into the game and Alan Gordon who will probably be asked to play up front on his own, has limited game time in 2012 and has fitness concerns ,he is far from certain to last 60 minutes, let alone 90, so I will let it pass, so just golf for this email, but one nice price and one very strong red type selection to go along with the League 2 playoff selection from earlier.
PGA TOUR : CROWNE PLAZE INVITATIONAL

LEADERBOARD

-15 DUFNER
-14 JOHNSON
-7 GILLIS
-6 BO VAN PELT

PREVIEW RESTRICTED

BMW PGA CHAMPIONSHIP : WENTWORTH

LEADERBOARD

-11 DONALD

-9 ROSE

-7 PETER LAWRIE

-5 GRACE

-5 PAUL LAWRIE

-5 ELS

-5 STERNE

-4 THREE GOLFERS

We already have the top ten bet for Justin Rose ( see below) and that looks safe ( touch wood), given that has a seven stroke cushion over the two players who are in a tie for 11th. So, I think that we can look at the tournament completely fresh. Regular readers will know that I now consider Luke Donald the best Round 4 player out there, the progress he has made over the last 12-15 months in this part of his game ( closing out tournaments) has been astonishing. I spoke ahead of the sunday round at the Transitions Championship last month and wrote.... but a few words about Luke Donald , he is one of nine playes withing three strokes of the lead, the englishman is currently on -8, three strokes behing joint leaders Goosen and Furyk. Donald has extra incentive to win today as victory will see him return to the world number one ranking.He is a fine sunday player ranked #1 on tour last year, with a 68.06 average and his record in contention is even stronger, improving his position on six of the seven occasions he started Round 4 inside the top ten.Donald is a strong early season player, posting a win and runner up spot in his first five outings last year and a second place inside three starts in 2010. He showed his first form of the year with a 6th place finish in the WGC event last week and will be looking to follow up a win there for his countryman Justin Rose.

He is not quite firing yet, but a second week in contention should have him primed to go well today and given his R4 record, we can expect him to move up the leaderboard and put pressure on those above him.I can find minus points for all of the other golfers in contention and at circa 9.0/9.20 on the betting exchanges, we could risk a very small bet on Donald.

Donald shot a bogey free 67 that day to win the Transitions and it was the performance of a champion, which Donald now clearly is and the "bottler" accusations should never be repeated. He has since followed up with a 3rd place in the Zurich and 6th in the Players Championship and is no looking to repeat in this tournament he won in 2011 and finished runner up in 2010, he looks set to post a third straight top 2 placing in this prestigeous event and that is very impressive.

I think that Donald will ( probably) win today, but my odds, as always in a 100% book, were roughly 1.65 Donald, 3.20 Rose, 17 Lawrie and obviously I couldn't  take the favourite at circa 1.50 max, which is very much not my thing in any case. He only neds a top 8 place to retake the world number one ranking, which is changing hands on a weekly basis at the moment, so will only be looking at first place today, but the same applies to Rose, who would move up to 5th in the world, a career high ranking should he win this afternoon. We already know that Donald is solid in Round 4 and Rose has not been a slouch on sunday this year either, ranking 11th on the US tour and equalling or improving his position when starting the final round inside the top 5 ( in contention) on two occasions. He won the big money WGC Cadillac title at Doral in March holding off Bubba Watson and Rory McIlroy, shooting -4 for the last ten holes after a shaky start and perhaps even more impressively,  shot -5 for the last seven holes at Augusta, after being level par for that stretch over the first three days, to finish 8th at the Masters.

 

 Both leaders will be comfortable playing together, they have a good relationship and were paired together for the first two days. I think Rose offers a little value at 4.0 + on the exchanges and with Pinnacle to win a title that he really wants , we talked in the week about the years he spent here as a kid watching his heroes and his playoff defeat in 2007 was very painful, he will be extremely focused and Luke will have to be at his best to hold on, if you are already on the top ten selection, I suggest you take a little of that likely profit on this win bet.

TOP TEN FINISH : JUSTIN ROSE ( sent Wednesday night)

Wentworth has been toughened up in recent years and with that has come a return to English winners, with the last three all being "locals", if we can still refer to Luke Donald as such. He was raised just 25 miles away from the course in High Wycombe, so is very much a local., pretty much like the other two most recent victors Simon Khan and Paul Casey

Another player who perfectly fits the profile, having grown up in the South East and now playing pretty much exclusively on the PGA Tour, like Donald, Casey and last year's runner up Lee Westwood, is Justin Rose, having attended this tournament as a spectator through his teens, he was second here in 2007 losing in a playoff, was tenth two years ago and arrives in arguably his best ever shape, having won a WGC event this year,also  finishing eigth in the Masters and top ten in 10 of his last 19 starts worldwide, including two wins in the US. He played in the Matchplay last week and despite losing out to eventual winner Nicolas Colsaerts, he was arguably the most impressive golfer, playing 40 holes in 15 under par . Seeing friends Donald, Westwood and McIlroy at the top of the world rankings has really got him focused and in interview yesterday he said ....

"It's a big inspiration and motivation for me to try and match or even better the likes of Rory, Lee and Luke," said Rose. "They are really setting the benchmark in the game right now and I honestly believe I could be up there with them.

"I am really happy with the consistency of my performances this year and this means I can work on just maintaining my game at a good level rather than searching for the answer to some problem or another. I certainly feel good about my chances."

"To win our flagship event against the cream of European golf and on a great course would be a wonderful launch-pad for the rest of the year as Luke showed in 2011.

"The course really suits my eye and my swing and I really like the changes they have made this year. Returning the 12th to a par-five is a really sensible move and the changes they have made to the 18th in taking out a bunker on the right and extending the landing area for the drive will make it a much more exciting hole.

I expect him to go close and will take 1.25 units Justin Rose top ten finish 2.875 + there is some 3.0 on offer.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY .....

Hugely busy day today, I have sent subscribers four match previews , plus a look at the French Open Tennis outright markets and some basic stats and hints for the Eurovision Song Contest. These were split over two emails one sent early and the other mid morning today and they are reproduced, admittedly in a heavily censored format below. The two emails ( in uncensored form) cost much less than a cup of coffee and the service offers terrific value for money....

Contact info : gowi8@btinternet.com

The J League game has just finished ( 1-1) , Urawa took the lead with just two minutes of normal time remaining, hosts equalised in the first minute of injury time, the Reds hit the woodwork with a free header from two metres out ( which Harry Redknapp's "missus could have scored") in the 96th minute, the very last action of the game !

SATURDAY MAY 26th

There is a huge amount to cover today over the two emails, so I will get straight on with things....

LEAGUE 1 PLAYOFF FINAL : SHEFFIELD UNITED - HUDDERSFIELD TOWN

PREVIEW IS RESTRICTED TO SUBSCRIBERS

INTERNATIONAL FRIENDLY : REPUBLIC OF IRELAND- BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA

This will be interesting,with exciting Sunderland winger James McClean making his first senior start for the Republic of Ireland , he is going to start on the left, but might only get 45 minutes or so. At the back, the hosts have been struggling this week, with John O'Shea, Kevin Foley and keeper Shay Given out, Keiren Westwood will start in goal, he has not played a league game since before Christmas for Sunderland and kept just one clean sheet in his ten starts this season. Richard Dunne and Sean St Ledger have also been doubts all week , but both now seem set to play, but might not quite be 100%. Paul McShane has been called up to the squad as replacement and will play today. Robbie Keane, Keith Andrews and Keith Fahey have also been fitness concerns and Keane only arrived late after playing for LA Galaxy last weekend. Bosnia have named only four defenders in their 22 man squad, which seems very odd, they do have  a couple of midfielders who can play at the back, but still, it is cause for concern, especially in the key left bank position and offensively, there could be a lot of space/ joy for the Irish. At the other end of the pitch , Vedad Ibisevic,Zvjezdan Misimovic, Miralem Pjanic and  Edin Dzeko amongst others give them plenty and attractive offensive options, with well over 50 international goals between the quartet. The visitors have a habit of conceding heavily in these pre tournamnet friendlies and would probably rather be on holiday, goals for me.1.5 units "over" 2.25 goals 2.03 asian line.

J LEAGUE: FC TOKYO- URAWA REDS


A win for either side will put them firmly in title contention and we can expect a committed performance from both, but the hosts do have an AFC Champions League decider in midweek and might be a little distracted by that, they also had several players involved with the national squad earlier in the week, one made his debut, which was a great honour for the newly promoted club, but a further distraction given that they also played that match in Korea last week(see below) and another domestic fixture since then. Urawa have underachieved in recent campaigns, but do look a very likely challenger again this season, they were said to be impressive in winning their last two starts without conceding. Really gruelling month for Tokyo and with the AFC match ahead we can chance a little on the visitors. I watched the FCT- Kashima Antlers game on Matchday 6 which came after the hosts had a similarly busy schedule through late March / early April and they were very lacklustre that day, but on the ball a few days later for their AFC fixture. Antlers completely dominated, won 2-1, it really should have been at least four and Urawa, who will have huge travelling support at this fixture, could get similar success. I do not want to say too much more here for XXX XXX X XXXX  XX XXX. Urawa Reds level ball 2.28 asian line.


EUROVISION SONG CONTESTI am not putting up a bet here, but a few basic facts. The running order is key, not as key as having some friendly neighbours who will vote for you of course, but very important none the less, with eight of the last ten winners being drawn 17th or higher. 50% of the votes are, since 2009, meant to come from national juries composed of music industry insiders, which gives, or is supposed to give, a little more emphasis on the actual song, which might hamper the chances of the Russian grannies ! 

2011 Three of top four draw 12 +

2010 Top four drawn 14 +

2009 Three of top five drawn 18 +

2008 Five of top six drawn 18 +

2007 Top five drawn 15 +

Last seven winners all drawn between 14 and 24, with average draw order of 19, last four all between 19 and 24, average 21.25.

The draw is given below, favourite Sweden and the countries after them have the "perfect" spots, Loreen has a good chance but is incredibly short in the betting. 

REST OF THE PREVIEW IS RESTRICTED TO SUBSCRIBERS

01	United Kingdom
02	Hungary
03	Albania
04	Lithuania
05	Bosnia and Herzegovina
06	Russia
07	Iceland
08	Cyprus
09	France
10	Italy
11	Estonia
12	Norway
13	Azerbaijan
14	Romania
15	Denmark
16	Greece
17	Sweden
18	Turkey
19	Spain
20	Germany
21	Malta
22	Macedonia
23	Ireland
24	Serbia
25	Ukraine
26	Moldova

Good Luck.

SATURDAY MAY 12th

LEAGUE 1 PLAYOFFS : MK DONS- HUDDERSFIELD TOWN

Stevenage Borough and Sheffield United fought out a 0-0 draw last night and another stalemate in the other semi-final is definitely on the cards this afternoon, with the pair having already played to two draws this season. Huddersfield threw away the lead in both previous meetings, which is their normal modus operandi having drawn an incredible 14 times in matches where they have led, effectively blowing 28 points, holding on to just half of those leads would have seen them already promoted. That failure to see out games and a belief that he would not take them up through the playoffs, cost Lee Clark his job and Simon Grayson with huge post season experience as a player and manager took  charge. We have not seen a big change in the Terriers yet, at least in regard to letting leads slip, but they remain tough to beat and have lost just seven of their last 70 league starts over the last 18 months, in what is a very competitive division. Town have showed huge ambition so far in managing to keep hold of prolific striker Jordan Rhodes , despite plenty of big money offers, they wrapped him in cottoon wool for the last two league games and will be looking for him to fire them to Wembley. This is Grayson's seventh post season and Town's third straight, he said ....

"The players need to learn from the experiences that they have gone through before in these sorts of occasions. You can learn from successes and failures in semi-finals and it is important that the players take on board what has gone on before. Sometimes though, the raw naivety of players can help them grasp the opportunity as they won't be worrying about the bigger picture.

"The players haven't shown any fear over the last week; our training sessions have been very positive. All the supporters that I have spoken to are looking forward to the two games. Everyone knows anything can happen - that is the nature of the Play-Offs - but we need to grasp the opportunity and have no regrets."

Grayson has been able to focus on the post season for many weeks and is boosted by the return of not just Rhodes but several other key players that have been out through injury and they have performed well on the big Stadium MK playing surface in recent visits, they pretty much dominated the earlier game here this season and missed a late penalty after Dons equalised and won 3-1 here last season , again missing a penalty ! Dons play some very nice football and will have plenty of possession, but too often it is going nowhere fast and despite the 84 goals they have scored ( five more than Town), I see them posing far less offensive threat and something of a flat track bully, as they have won just one of their last nine starts against top 6 teams and also lost at home recently to Carlisle United, Brentford and Walsall, almost all of the games in which they have run in a few goals have been against struggling teams. Upfront I think they do not match up well with the other leading contenders and a player like Charlie MacDonald, who is a solid lower league striker, cannot be compared to Rhodes or even Novak, who has Championship potential or Lee, who is an Irish International. I have to take the visitors, who will have massive travelling support of 4,500 + cheering them on 1.5 units Huddersfied Town +0.25 ball 1.94 asian line.

MONDAY MAY 14th

But let's start with a few words about the League 1 playoff between Sheffield United and Stevenage Borough, the first match ended 0-0 on Friday and was, as the scoreline suggests, a typically tough, no quarter given, playoff first leg, with few chances and all involved terrified of making a mistake. Things tend to open up in the second leg and only two of the last thirteen Football League playoff games that finished all square in the first match have then gone into extra time and one of those was a wide open 3-3 draw. The six that ended 0-0 have failed to produce a stalemate in the second meeting, with five home wins and one away victory. These are two clubs with very different histories, Borough were still in the Conference two years ago and are looking to record a third straight promotion, United have fallen on hard times this year with a season in League 1, in 2009-10 they were 8th in the Championship three levels above Boro and were in the EPL as recently as 2007. This is almost as close as it gets to David and Goliath between two clubs within the same division, United's average home crowd is over five times that of the visitors and their smallest attendance this season is three times that of Boro's biggest ! Playing budgets are inline with those attendances and these two should not be competing at the same level and to be honest, long term they cannot, eventually United will move on and re-establish themselves as a Championship side at the upper end of the table, sooner or later Stevenage will find their true level and they will do well if that is above League 2 .But this is a one off game and anything can happen. The pair met here in the league at the end of last month and that day will long be remembered as the one on which they blew their chance of automatic promotion, even worse, they lost out to their cross town rivals Wednesday and the only way they can exorcise that particular demon is to win promotion themselves. That day United were 2-0 down early in the second half, after looking like they were going to overwhelm the visitors in the opening exchanges,but fought back to claim a share of the spoils at 2-2 and improved greatly after the introduction of Richard Cresswell and Ryan Flynn from the bench. The pace of Flynn out wide caused a lot of problems for Boro and so did the aerial bombardment that United put them under, however, it was clear on Friday night that Stevenage had done plenty of work to try and come up with a gameplan to stop the crosses from Matthew Lowton and Matthew Hill, but it was at the expense of some offensive threat and both coaches will have been giving tactics plenty of thought over the weekend. A really interesting game, if United still had disgraced top scorer in their ranks, they would be my pick, but if he had seen out the season, they would probably already be in the Championship. Stats do suggest we should see a winner this evening and United have just about had the upper hand over the last 120 minutes of action between the two, but no Evans ( of course) , James Beattie is also out and Cresswell might only be able to play a cameo role from the bench again, so goals are looking a problem and very little value in the current quotes. Fun to watch and that is what I will do, a watching brief for me.

WEDNESDAY MAY 16th

AFC CHAMPIONS LEAGUE:ULSAN HYUNDAI- FC TOKYO

Relegation in 2010 has worked out pretty well for FC Tokyo, not only did they come straight back up as champions winning the title by eight points, but also did the double winning the Emperor's Cup, which got them into the Champions League, where they have performed well, collecting 11 points from five group games and sitting top of group F on goal difference, just ahead of Ulsan. They have also made a solid start to their J-League season and sit in 6th place, six points off the top with a game in hand. The visitors face two big domestic games in the next ten days, hosting the clubs immediately above and below them in the table. They are clearly a club on the" up "and one we should keep an eye on.  I watched them in their 4-2 defeat of Brisbane Roar recently, the Australians teams are at a big disadvantage at this stage of the year and Roar didn't help themselves by playing a very high defensive line, which Tokyo had little trouble getting behind, but the Japanese club looked a little defensively fragile and the match was evenly poised at 2-2 before the visitors tired late in the second period.

Ulsan are a typically strong Korean side, a nation who have dominated the competition in recent seasons, something we have touched upon in the past, but which may be changing, but that is something I want to cover ahead of the Round of 16 games and will leave for now. The hosts drew 2-2 in Tokyo and are also unbeaten in group games, they are 4th in the K-League, just two points off the top and visit the leaders at the weekend.

Hosts can only win the group with a win, both will probably have at least one eye on their upcoming domestic games, if Ulsan really needed the win, I would back them to get it.  Problem is that you can kind of pick your last 16 opponent, group winner will face Kashiwa Reysol, who were Japanese champions last year, but who are struggling this season, runner up will meet Chinese club Guangzhou Evergrande, who are a far more unknown quality, but have made giant strides in recent seasons. Winning the League 1 title in 2010, the Super League by a huge 15 points last year and are already top again. They have a trio of Brazilian players in their ranks and have just signed Lucas Barrios from Borussia Dortmund. Guangzhou have been inconsistent in the group stage, winning 5-1 at Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors, which had everyone sitting up and taking notice, but later losing at home to Buriram of Thailand. However, they took four points from Reysol and that defeat of JHM is probably enough to make Ulsan want to avoid the Chinese champions, other bonus points are the easier travel to Japan and the fact that they can actually try to win in front of their own supporters today. No bet for me atm, but I favour the home win in general terms and if it looks like Ulsan are "at the races" I might get involved "in play". This is the most interesting game for the future IMO, I will cover the other two in more basic terms.

SATURDAY EMAIL # 2

FRENCH OPEN TENNIS

A fantastic draw for Rafa in the Men's Singles and it is hard to argue with his odds on quotes across the board, but far too short for my taste.

The Women's Singles is far more interesting from a betting perspective.

REST OF THE PREVIEW IS RESTRICTED TO SUBSCRIBERS

Hopefully, some other bookmakers will offer odds and I will update the situation in the early sunday email if that is the case.

MLS : COLUMBUS CREW- CHICAGO FIRE

Hosts are unbeaten in four and were really buoyed by the four points they took from a two game West Coast road trip, where they drew in San Jose and won in Seattle, defensively they have tightened up considerably allowing just three goals in five starts. They will also have a pair of fresh legs, which could be key with both clubs making their third start in a week, as Chris Birchall ( starter last two years for LA Galaxy) and Ethan Finlay are ready to return to action and gives them incresed midfield options. Crew have .... REST OF THE PREVIEW IS RESTRICTED TO SUBSCRIBERS

Good Luck.

Contact :  gowi8@btinternet.com

TAKEN FROM FRIDAY'S EMAIL NOTES ....

Justin Rose made a very nice start at the BMW PGA shooting a five under par 67 which leaves him in a tie for second place, he is ranked number one on the US Tour this year for second round scoring, so, every reason to expect him to put in another solid showing this morning. He starts at 08.15 UK time, so will probably have played 3-4 holes by the time I send this email out.

I am going to keep things very simple today and just preview the Copa del Rey final, but the rest of the weekend is incredibly busy and there will be two emails on each of the next two days. Schedule for these is shown below , along with probably content, but this is subject to change .

SATURDAY

EMAIL #1

10.00 UK time: 3-4 football matches, including one early lunchtime kick off and any thoughts from Round 3 of the two golf tournaments we are covering this week.

EMAIL # 2

12.00 UK time : The late MLS matches and a first look at the French Open Tennis, following the Friday draw.

SUNDAY

EMAIL # 1

09.00 UK time: All afternoon football fixtures, including the League 2 Playoff final and Matchday one  from Roland Garros.

11.30 UK time : Round 4 of BMW PGA and Crowne Plaza, plus the overnight football fixtures ( possibly two previews).

COPA DEL REY FINAL : BARCELONA - ATHLETIC BILBAO

If the politics can be forgotten for at least 90 minutes this evening, these two could serve us up a classic. Despite only finishing tenth in La liga, Athletic have had a wonderful campaign and have thrilled us at times, many times infact and I am hopeful that after pretty lethargic showings in their last handful of starts, when they looked to be running on empty, that they have one final performance in them, before this group of talented players is broken up. They have had 12 days to recharge their batteries and prepare for this and every single player will know how important this game is not only to their club and supporters, but the whole region. If they win, the party will be huge and there is talk of one million people crowding into the city to celebrate. I have a couple of concerns about Athletic, the squad is going to split and there are a couple of career defining and life changing moves in the offering and however much you love the club and it is in the blood of most/ all of these guys, it is only human to think that an injury could end all that and that will be at the back of some minds and also the pitch here at the Vicente Calderon Stadium was only relaid a couple of days ago following a Coldplay concert and might not be fully bedded down yet.

For Barcelona, this is Pep Guardiola’s final match in charge and the players will want to give him a good send off, this doesn't have to mean winning the cup, although of course they would like to, but playing the right way, the Barce way and I think that he and his opposite number Marcelo Bielsa, who are friends and have similar ideas on the game, would both be very happy with that. When the two teams met at San Mamés earlier this season, it finished 2-2...... REST OF THE PREVIEW IS RESTRICTED TO SUBSCRIBERS

As I type, Justin Rose is -2 for his first seven holes, so a good start to his second round.

Good Luck.

THURSDAY ....DALLAS VIDEO HORROR !

THURSDAY MAY 24th

Boca got a point last night with a late equaliser, FC Dallas lost 2-1and were very unfortunate not to claim a win, let alone a point, they led in the 41st minute with a goal which came from a corner, with FCD winning two headers in the box, one uncontested and defending these crosses is clearly a problem for Fire at the moment, something we discussed yesterday. Dallas were unable to hold on till the break, which would have been key , conceding a wonder goal a few minutes later. Early in the second period Dallas had a penalty, which the home keeper saved well, 15 minutes later Fire were also awarded a spot kick, also saved , but the rebound was put in by Marco Pappa, who was not only inside the box when the kick was taken, but virtually level with the penalty taker ! Everyone on the pitch and in the stadium saw this infringement except for the two officials ! Dallas then came within a inch of equalising as normal time expired. If you want to watch the highlights, all the sordid details can be viewed on this high quality, albeit painful LINK  .

I was very pleased with the Fire- FCD preview and how the summer leagues have started for us in general.

For today, we already have the bet given yesterday at circa 3.0 and which is reproduced at the foot of the email and I have one further selection for today's football .

But we can start with a few basic stats and notes about tonight's matches in Allsvenskan, Malmo FF make the long trip north to Sundsvall to face GIF, but seem to have most of the advantages. The hosts have had a quick turnaround after being given a bit of a lesson by Elfsborg on Monday. losing 3-0 on home soil, they ended the match with ten men after the dismissal of Robert Lundstrom, but were already three down at the time and have now failed to score in four of their last five starts. Now they have to take on another top two side and one who is not only fresher, having not played since last Thursday, but also hungry to keep in touch with Elfsborg at the top of the table and in good goalscoring form, with two or more goals in their last four road games. Domestic football closes down for five weeks after today, so MFF will be very motivated to finish on a high note and close that gap at the top. We could, of course, argue the same about GIF, but whilst they started well on Monday, their heads dropped a little after failing behind and I feel they will be looking forward to the break, they have a bit of a boost with the return of Myrestam on the left, which is handy with Lundstrom out and also Ari Skúlason to the midfield, but they look up against it. Traditionally MFF struggle here, but have not visited Sundsvall for four years.

GIF : 1. Oscar Berglund,2. Christian Brink,3. David Myrestam,4. Stefan Ålander,5. Roger Risholt,6. Patrik Rikama-Hinnenberg,7. Daniel Sliper,8. Fredric Jonson,9. Johan Eklund,11. Ari Skúlason,12. Fredrik Holster,14. Pa Dibba, 16. Simon Helg,20. Niclas Larsson,21. Michel Pires,22. Marcus Danielsson,23. Kevin Walker,25. Nuri Mustafi.

MFF:  Johan Dahlin, Viktor Noring, Daniel Andersson, Filip Helander, Jasmin Sudic, Pontus Jansson, Filip Stenström, Markus Halsti, Ulrich Vinzents, Simon Thern, Jimmy Durmaz, Jiloan Hamad, Erik Friberg, Ivo Pekalski, Simon Kroon, Alex Nilsson, Daniel Larsson, Dardan Rexhepi, Mathias Ranégie.

Much further South (and West) IFK host a favourite opponent in Kalmar FF, the visitors have not won here inside 90 minutes in eight visits and the hosts have scored two or more goals in each of those starts, three plus in five of them. KFF have kept just one cleansheet since the opening day of the campaign and that came against winless and woeful basement club Orebro. IFK entered the season with big dreams but have yet to really fire, they are without a win in four, but those games included fixtures against the top two and the derby game with GAIS, they normally score, having registered in nine of their last ten starts, only coming up short in the Boras Arena, where the leaders are almost unbeatable. I see this as a big game for the home side if they are to achieve anything this season, they cannot enter the break more than ten points adrift of top spot and simply have to win today. The visitors arrive without Mats Solheim, Tobias Carlsson, Rasmus Sjöstedt and Daniel Mendes , the first three have hardly played a game, but they are missing the hugely experienced Carlsson at the back and the loss of second top scorer Mendes ,one of only two players with more than a single goal this season is.....

 

THE REST OF TODAY'S NOTES ARE ONLY AVAILABLE TO SUBSCRIBERS 

 

Good Luck.

 

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

WEDNESDAY .....

Today's daily notes are reproduced below, they were sent to subscribers at 10.00 UK time this morning. If you are reading them on the blog, I suggest you bet..... nothing !Unless of course, the notes tally with your own thoughts on the game in question.

The reason being that you are only seeing a small sample of the service and they are, like all gambling, subject to variance on any given day, week or even month, you have to read the daily email on a regular basis to get the best out of the information. Subscribers are already 2.5+ units up since Monday, so are freerolling with any bets they might make on these games today, which is very different to coming into them cold.


I have had to censor part of the Tippeligaen preview for fairly obvious reasons.


WEDNESDAY MAY 23rd

Two really interesting matches overnight and some brief notes about a third game, where I really like a bet at odds of circa 3.25, but which is not freely available, so I have kept it in black type.

The rest of the week is going to be incredibly busy, with two golf tournaments, the start of the French Open Tennis, the two remaining Football League Playoff finals, where I have strong opinions in each, the Copa del Rey final, plenty of MLS / Scandinavian fixtures and a whole host of friendly internationals. I am probably going to go with two daily emails for some of these days, but will update the situation later in the week. I will "definitely" have a double staked bet next midweek, asian odds will be available on Monday and if limits are high enough, I will probably release it then. Obviously, with the additional proviso that odds are good enough, but the early indications are that they will be.

Very exciting time, my two best consecutive months in each of the last two years have been June/July and I am very confident that this summer will follow suit.

COPA LIBERTADORES:  FLUMINENSE- BOCA JUNIORS

Brazilian clubs have dominated the competition in recent years and are again well to the fore this year, providing four quarter finalists from five entrants and the only team to miss out on the last eight , Internacional, lost out in the round of 16 to their countrymen from Fluminense, so, once again, a very strong showing for the boys from Brazil. Looking at the all time competition record it is Argentina who have performed best, providing three of the four clubs with more than three Copa titles , but one win for Estudiantes in 2009 aside, it is only Boca Juniors who have really competed with the continent's elite in recent years, winning four championships and making a fifth final since the turn of the millenium. They look the most likely to break the stranglehold of their biggest rivals, with the three other Brazilian clubs on the opposite half of the draw and if they can find a way past Flu tonight, Boca would face either Universidad de Chile or Libertad in the semis, which they would see as very win-able. Boca arrive in Rio holding a 1-0 lead from the first leg and this is far from a trip into the unknown with the pair coming out of the same group and Boca actually won the away game 2-0, they did not start their group campaign well, but have cranked up through the gears and looked increasingly strong both domestically and on the international stage since then. Boca went unbeaten through Apertura with a 12-7-0 record and only conceded six goals, they currently lead Clausura, albeit with a slightly less impressive 8-5-2, but they have a huge squad, have rotated their starting eleven on a regular basis in order to compete in the Copa which is a priority and virtually played a second eleven for the 2-0 win at Racing last weekend. They appear stronger every day and are clearly the best Argentine club by some way, further boost to them was the return of striker Lucas Viatri after a long term injury , he scored and gives them yet another option, one that they do not really need. Neither Juan Roman Riquelmen nor Leandro Somoza played in the earlier win here in Rio and Boca will be at their strongest and freshest this evening . The hosts will be without the creative talent of Deco and suspended Carlinhos which leaves them exposed on the left, Boca could have made this tie safe in the first leg, but the visiting keeper made several big saves and I do feel that he will be busy again at times this evening. Boca arrive on the back of three consecutive cleansheets and I have to take a little on them with the handicap start. Boca Juniors +0.25 ball 2.04 asian line.

MLS: CHICAGO FIRE - FC DALLAS

This is a big rivalry and whilst FC Dallas arrive in poor form, without a win in seven, or cleansheet in eight and missing a number of midfieders, including star player Brek Shea, they will be determined to get something from tonight's game, not least to retain the Brimstone Cup, which these two clubs play for each year and which FCD have held for a decade. It is decided over all meetings, regardless of competition, but this is the only MLS fixture scheduled, so is almost certain to decide the destiny of the trophy, as holders, FCD will retain it with a point or better and this is a big deal for them. They have been and are injury hit in the middle of the park, but showed signs in the 1-1 draw at home to Philly on Saturday that they are close to turning the corner, coach Schellas Hyndman introduced promising young mexican Bryan Leyva to the left of midfield alongside Haitian international James Marcelin who recently signed from Portland, this allowed them to return to a 4-5-1 and they created a lot of chances for Andrew Jacobson in the opening 45 minutes. They went in at the break 1-0 up, on another day it could have been three and paid the price after that, when Philly got very physical and hustled FCD out of their stride. Leyva was a big success, he has exceptional delivery, especially from set pieces and is a player to watch in coming weeks, once Shea is back, they are a team we can keep on the right side of for a game or two. The Mexican laid on the goal with a well taken corner and they can get a lot of joy this way tonight, with Fire looking vunerable from crosses at Portland on Sunday night. Two things about that, Portlnd scored twice, their first goals in more than a month and that late kick off and 24 less recovery time meant a layover on the West Coast, a day spent travelling on Monday and only light training and limited prep work for this game yesterday. Hosts are also without a couple of key players, including German defender Arne Friedrich and probably Chris Rolfe, who still looks to need another week on the sidelines.

FCD will have right back Zach Lloyd back from suspension and Fabian Castillo should be able to play some part, he was said to be close to a return on Friday, so with another five days rest should at least be on the bench, which would be a huge bonus. I an sure that they will have been looking at the videos of the two goals the Timbers scored on saturday from set pieces, both of which were "soft". The visitors are unbeaten in six trips to Bridgeview, winning five and scoring an amazing 15 goals. I think we will see both teams score, FC Dallas are desperate for a point, especially ahead of a trip to West leaders Real SL at the weekend and will be a little fresher than Fire, who have made that 6,000 km round trip with limited recovery time ( MLS teams are used to the distances, but do not like the quick turnaround), midfield will be packed and set pieces will be key, 1-1 draw is my pick, but I will go with FC Dallas +0.5 ball 2.0 asian line.

NORWAY TIPPELIGAEN: BRANN - FREDRIKSTAD

This should be entertaining.... famous last words ! Brann are very offensive minded , like to play on the front foot and frequently leave themselves vunerable on the break . Fredrikstad are weak defensively and have kept just one cleansheet all season, I have just finished watching their 3-2 defeat at Valerenga from earlier in the month where they were 3-0 down inside 15 minutes, they were carved open very easily there, but showed great spirit to pull two back in the second half and almost claimed a very unlikely equaliser. It was a similar story at home to Stromsgodset at the weekend, two down at the break and left chasing the game. I read that defender Jorgen Horn is going to be asked to play in midfield today, he has done so before, but this kind of smacks of desperation to me and I do not think it will help the visitors keep Brann out for too long. Fredrikstad have conceded nine first half goals in their last five starts. Not too hard to see this developing into a shootout, last 16 h2h games have averaged 3.1 goals and Fredrikstad have scored on their last six visits, two or more in three of their last five and a 3-2 ( 26.0) or 4-2 ( 41.0) home win would be a good shout at nice odds, but I will opt for .... REST OF THE PREVIEW IS RESTRICTED.

If you find the previews useful and would like to receive them all on a daily basis, then send me an email at ....... gowi8@btinternet.com and I will forward details.


Good Luck.

TUESDAY .....

Very promising day in prospect tomorrow ( Wednesday) and I am planning to reproduce my notes in full on the blog, so please check back.

In the meantime, good luck !

MONDAY .....

There were two blog previews posted early in the day on here yesterday and both Lille and Napoli obliged at very nice odds of 2.20 and 3.50, I hope that some of you backed one or both.

A couple of things to cover today....
I have decided to stop sending out the semi-regular "freebie" emails ( previously advertised to the left of this post), it seems a little pointless when the daily service is so cheap (2-3 euros per day) and there is some free to view content on here in any case. I will have occasional free trials like the one offered the week before last, but in future, you will have to opt in for those , as and when they are offered.

I am frequently asked about the Feedburner email ( see below LHS of the page), this is a third party service and is just a copy of any posts, which have been published on here in the previous 24 hours and is sent out at a set time each day ( circa 13.15 UK time). If I post something on here at even 13.20 it would not be sent out until the next day. I have no control over this and it is not MY email service. My notes are sent out immediately and directly to subscribers, usually at 10.00 each morning, on busy days like yesterday, there are often two emails.

Content which appears on here is 5-10% at most of what appears in my daily notes, a taster if you like.

Today , for example, I have previewed two matches in the Irish Premier League at very attractive odds of 2.07 and circa 2.375, neither of which I will be able to post on here . Hopefully that will clarify matters a little.

Good Luck.

UPDATE 22.19 : Both IPL selections won tonight , that's ten winners from 14 red type selections over the weekend ( Friday-Monday) at average odds of 2.44 + .

UPDATE ....

 LILLE -NANCY

" They are 2.20 to again score at least three , which is general quote and I will take that for 1.5 units, I would not be surprised to see them really go to town and there are huge prices around for them to score 5 or 6 ( over 5.5 for the game is 8.0 +) and/or Hazard to score two ( 5.5) or three (26.0), he will definitely take any penalties and four goals might earn him a share of the top scorer award in Ligue 1, however far fetched that might sound"

Lille score three inside 27 minutes !

Hazard scored two inside 27 minutes !

Hazard scores his hat-trick inside 35 minutes !

Good Luck.

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

HAZARD WARNING ..... EDEN ON WAY TO PREMIER LEAGUE !

LIGUE 1 :

Plenty of teams still have a lot to play for in Ligue 1, with three battling for 5th spot and a Europa League place and a further eight looking to avoid the two remaining promotion slots, to say nothing of Montpellier and PSG still fighting for the title. The leaders go to already relegated ( not sure how !) Auxerre, needing a point and PSG go to Lorient, needing a win and an upset in the other game to snatch the title. Lorient are in the heart of the relegation scrap, but results elsewhere could save them and I can see a situation where both of these two could play out a draw in the first half and then review the situation at the break, if Montpellier are two up, PSG might switch off, likewise if results are not going well for the teams below Lorient and four are playing on the road. I have seen plenty of 2.375 for the half time draw and up to 2.46 for tiny liquidity on the exchanges and those odds seem way too big to me under the circumstances. Both teams have gone in level at the break in 17 matches ( 46%) this season.

I feel sure that we will see plenty of swings and turns this evening, but we might see a lot of the action taking place after the break, when teams will have a better idea of where they stand and exactly how great their need to gamble is.

If you are betting "in running" , of those eight teams involved in the relegation dog fight, Valenciennes ( 1.37 point average) and Lorient ( 1.24) have collected the most second half points this season.

Bordeaux are usually fast starters, "collecting" a Ligue 1 high 63 points before the break, 12 more than leaders Montpellier who have gone in level at the half in an eyecatching 65% of all starts.

One game where I do not really agree with the odds is ..... 

 

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There is one "friendly" match I like the look of and that involves Lille, confirmed in third place at home to mid table Nancy who have nothing to play for. The hosts will be saying goodbye to Eden Hazard, Ligue 1 's player of the last two seasons and I am certain they will want to do so with a touch of class and with a bang.  Lille are defending champions at least until the completion of these matches and are once again the division's top scorers on home soil for the third year running, during which they have posted a 38-13-5 record and averaged over two goals per game, eight times scoring three or more here this season. They are 2.20 to again score at least three , which is general quote and I will take that for 1.5 units, I would not be surprised to see them really go to town and there are huge prices around for them to score 5 or 6 ( over 5.5 for the game is 8.0 +) and/or Hazard to score two ( 5.5) or three (26.0), he will definitely take any penalties and four goals might earn him a share of the top scorer award in Ligue 1, however far fetched that might sound. But "officially" I will keep things straightforward. Nancy are without several key players including Sami, Andre Luiz, Haidara and Niculae ( top scorer) and are said to be having a defensive reshuffle..... lambs to the slaughter ?

 

Good Luck.

 

contact : gowi8@btinternet.com

SUNDAY UPDATE ....

Scroll down a couple of posts and you will find this amongst my notes for Saturday ( yesterday) .... Li Na is having big problems closing out matches right now and has admitted it has become a problem, she again let a big lead slip in a match she was coasting and the French Open champion is suffering some mental demons. If you are trading any tennis matches live in the coming weeks and especially at Roland Garros,where she will also have the pressure of a championship defence, I am sure you will find some nice positions to oppose the talented chinese superstar , not necessarily to lose, but to make things very difficult for herself, this is something I will return to in the next two to three weeks. Interesting to see how she fares today if she gets a lead over Serena, who is now 17-0 on clay for the season.

Serena withdrew from that match up, but today Li Na played ( is playing) Maria Sharapova in the Roma Masters Final, she led 6-4 4-0 and was traded incredibly short on the exchanges (1.03), she again blew up, as avid readers might have expected and six games later the pair were all square . Now Masha is 2-0 up in the third and the Chinese player trading at circa 6.2 ! Do you know how much you can make by laying someone at 1.03 and backing them back at 6.0 + ? Just do the sums !

But of course, this info is only for the select few, not many can afford to pay two euros per day for it !

This was the post I sent to subscribers after the semi finals yesterday ....

WTA TOUR: ROMA MASTERS FINAL : MARIA SHARAPOVA - LI NA

This pair have met twice before on clay, both times at the French Open, Masha won in three sets in 2009 and Li Na winning their semi final in straight sets en route to the title last season. That was a bit of an error strewn match with plenty of break points and errors, including ten double faults for Sharapova. We discussed briefly the problem the Chinese player has had closing out matches yesterday, she threw away winning positions against Agnieszka Radwanska in Stuttgart, to Victoria Azarenka in Madrid and tried her best to follow suit in her quarter final here with Dominika Cibulkova. It was the same story in Sydney and at the Australian Open early season and it is clearly becoming a problem.

But, she is serving very well, over 75% of first serves in play this tournament and with their two previous meetings on the surface averaging 24 games ( 22 and 26), I can see plenty of value with the "over" line, but feel the best way to go is a small bet on Sharapova to win 2-1 sets @ circa 4.0 say 0.75 units and a cover ( 0.25 units) on Li Na to also win 2-1 @ 6.0 + .

Good Luck.

TIME TO SAY GOODBYE..... ADP A TRUE LEGEND !

COPPA ITALIA FINAL : JUVENTUS - NAPOLI ( written 16.00 saturday)

I am really looking forward to this game, the earlier meeting between the two at the Stadio San Paolo was a six goal thriller and many considered it the best Serie A game of the season, it was certainly at least top two in my opinion. A repeat would do very nicely thank you ! I definitely feel that we see goals, Juve have won the title with a game based around the best defence, but will be without Giorgio Chiellini who rarely misses a game and who scooped most of the best defender awards this season, the Old Lady have won just one of the last six games he has not started. Also missing is fellow defender Paolo De Ceglie and star keeper, Gianluigi Buffon, with the best record in Europe this season  ( a goals allowed record of sub 0.5 per game) is said to be stepping aside to let Marco Storari take his place between the sticks. The back up keeper has made seven starts this season, all have gone "over" with a 3.43 goal average and he has kept just one cleansheet, twice conceding two or more, which considering Juve's defensive record is a positively criminal ! Juve have been imperious this season and have posted the first undefeated record ( 23-15-0) in the top flight for two decades, this evening they say goodbye to Alessandro Del Piero who been the favourite Juve son of all favourite son's, a world class footballer for most of his 19 years at the club he loves. To complete the league and cup double in his last start would be a fitting tribute and if it was to come in a "thriller", then so much the better. Juve have taken the game to most of the better teams in A this season, scoring 25 goals in eleven starts against what I consider the big four opponents, Inter, Milan, Roma and Napoli, at least one in each and two or more goals in nine games.

Napoli will not be giving anything away easily, this is the chance for some silverware for them and compensation after they threw that Champions League spot away, they will also be saying goodbye to a star or two in this game I would guess and will have 35,000 fanatical supporters cheering them on and good luck to the local police handling that lot ! The Azzurri last played in this stadium three weeks ago and performed wonderfully well, scoring two against Roma and it could / should have been four. They will take heart from that and the three they scored in the home fixture between these two, a match where Marek Hamsik also missed an early penalty. They will miss Walter Gargano and the protection he gives to the backline this evening. Last 20 h2h meetings have averaged 3.45 goals , last four cup games an even higher 5.25 and at least one team has scored three or more, 12 times in the last 15 meetings. Given the defensive problems/ changes for Juve and the attacking threat both teams pose, it is very hard not to see goals in this, the "over" appeals at circa 2.09 as does the up to 19.0 for over 5.5 goals for the truly adventurous of you out there and I might "waste" a little on that, but my main bet will be Napoli to score two or more goals at a very attractive 3.50 which I will take for 1.25 units .

Alessandro Del Piero has left us with many memories, highlight for me was LINK .

Back Later.

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

SUNDAY ..... WHERE DID IT ALL GO WRONG FOR BASTIAN SCHWEINSTEIGER ?

Exciting day yesterday, not only did we see a German side lose a penalty shootout and what were Bayern playing at there ? Manuel Neuer took the third and OK, he scored, but if he missed what sort of mental state would he have been in to try and save the remaining attempts from the Blues, he was followed by a terrified looking Ivica Olic and worst was to come, when Bastian Schweinsteiger stepped up to take the 5th.

All credit to him for volunteering, but this was a player, vice captain and leader of men, who could not even bear to watch when Arjen Robben took a spot kick during extra time, relying on his baby faced keeper to tell him if the ill fated Dutchman had scored, what sort of example was this setting to his team mates ? I know he was only denied by the width of a post, but he was NEVER going to score that penalty. Nice to know the Germans are faillible too, interesting to see how they fare in any Euro 2012 shoot outs !

My double staked, "maximum" bet won yesterday, that makes us three from three with these for 2012 at odds of 2.0, 2.20 and 2.29 and the day ended well with a win for Chivas in the MLS. Part of that post was reproduced in the blog yesterday ( see post below), full preview read ....

MLS : CHIVAS- LA GALAXY

The first SuperClasico of the season, Chivas are the home side, but both share the Home Depot Center, so only advantage will be with the number of respective supporters. LAG have bossed this series in recent years, being unbeaten in six h2h meetings and losing just one of the last eight of these "away" games, with 50% of them draws. Neither team has exactly set the MLS on fire this season, champions LAG have won just three of their ten starts, which is very similar to the record of the "hosts", but most galling for Chivas is their home form, which has seen them go 0-0-5 this season, this is a monkey they need off their backs as soon as possible and I think that will give them even bigger motivation, if that were possible, against their biggest rival this evening. Problem for them has been the large number of late goals conceded, they have allowed six goals against them after the 76th minute and two after the 89th in each of their last two, both of which cost them points, they led at San Jose for 85 minutes, so the late equaliser was hugely disappointing. That was enough for the club and they made two huge trades this week, general manager Jose Domene gave up Heath Pearce and Michael Lahoud two popular players who did not fit his vision for the future and were surplus to the squad's needs and brought in Danny Califf a hugely exerienced defender and striker Juan Agudelo, two positions where Chivas were desperately short. This is seen by all connected with the club as very good business indeed. LAG have had plenty of distractions in the last seven days,  the whole club were at the White House early in the week to meet the President, including David Beckham, who then flew to Athens and then London to perform Olympic duties. All in all, at the odds offered, I am keen to take the "hosts" getting a handicap start, the two new signings arrived in LA on Thursday night, so will have two days practice and both should start, Calff should make a big and immediate impact, steadying the backline. Chivas +0.25 ball 2.12 asian line.

The hosts won 1-0 and Beckham, after flying LA-Montreal-Washington- Athens-London- LA in the previous 8-9 days, only played for 16 minutes .

Thank you for the interest shown yesterday and if anyone else is curious about the subscriber service, please send an email to me at gowi8@btinternet.com

Today , I have sent previews for seven matches/events across two emails and as promised yesterday, will post one or two of them on here a little later, so please check back.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY ....

It is difficult for me to write too much on the blog today, I have three active picks and do not want to publish either of them in full for varying reasons, there are some excerpts from today's email below and you might find a snippet of interest there. Tomorrow, I am probably covering eight events for subscribers, so will have far more leeway to share something with you on the blog so please check back then.

SATURDAY MAY 19th

Two out of three correct in Ligue 2 last night and French football has gone very well for us in 2012, the second tier is going to be especially interesting and hard fought next season, with a hosts of big clubs , including Monaco, Sedan, Nantes, Lens and Auxerre all battling for a return to the top flight.

As I suspected might be the case, Venus Williams was probably forced into her comeback a little early because of the Olympics, but she is improving quickly and took Masha close yesterday, another couple of weeks of competition and we might well see a different outcome. Li Na is having big problems closing out matches right now and has admitted it has become a problem, she again let a big lead slip in a match she was coasting and the French Open champion is suffereing some mental demons. If you are trading any tennis matches live in the coming weeks and especially at Roland Garros,where she will also have the pressure of a championship defence, I am sure you will find some nice positions to oppose the talented chinese superstar , not necessarily to lose, but to make things very difficult for herself, this is something I will return to in the next two to three weeks. Interesting to see how she fares today if she gets a lead over Serena, who is now 17-0 on clay for the season.

We already have the double staked ( maximum) bet given yesterday, which I have reproduced at the foot of the email and I have two further matches to discuss. The Champions League final and one of the MLS overnight fixtures, where we have a XXXX XX XXX selection.

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FINAL : BAYERN MUNICH - CHELSEA

I never like to spend too long discussing these huge matches, we all know the teams so well and the media has usually spoken about the game for seven days + in the build up. Obviously a huge advantage for Bayern playing in the Allianz Arena, but it cannot be anymore intimidating than a trip to the Camp Nou in the semi finals, when Chelsea entered the arena in the role of Christians about to be fed to the Barce Lions. So, I do not think that home advantage will necessarilly be the deciding factor, as it puts a whole lot of additional pressure on Bayern and the visitors kind of have a ready made excuse on standby !

Both teams are missing key players through suspension and it is at the back where both are especially hard hit. Hosts are without David Alaba and Holger Badstuber in defence and the pair have made 100 starts in all competitions between them this season and will be very hard missed. They both played in the defensively shambolic 5-2 Cup final loss to Dortmund last week and were singled out by their coach as their "worst players", not the best case of man management I have ever seen. Two starting defenders missing out on possibly the biggest game of their careers and getting publicly slated by their coach , I guess he was trying to play down their loss for today's game, sacrificing the few, for the good of the many ! Bayern are also without the protection of holding midfielder Luiz Gustavo.The Blues are missing John Terry and Branislav Ivanovic from their backline and David Luiz and Gary Cahill have been listed as doubts all week, but that pair have trained everyday and I expect them to play, Florent Malouda will also be the subject of a late decision by interin coach Roberto di Matteo. Ramires and Raul Meireles are also suspended , six players out of such a high profile game is too many and the rules have to be looked at. Ramires has looked very impressive this season and will be the biggest loss for the Blues to overcome IMO, it will rob RDM of a big .... 

 

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MLS : CHIVAS- LA GALAXY

The first SuperClasico of the season, Chivas are the home side, but both share the Home Depot Center, so only advantage will be with the number of respective supporters. LAG have bossed this series in recent years, being unbeaten in six h2h meetings and losing just one of the last eight of these "away" games, with 50% of them draws. Neither team has exactly set the MLS on fire this season, champions LAG have won just three of their ten starts, which is very similar to the record of the "hosts", but most galling for Chivas is their home form, which has seen them go 0-0-5 this season, this is a monkey they need off their backs as soon as possible and I think that will give them even bigger motivation, if that were possible, against their biggest rival this evening. Problem for them has been the large number of late goals conceded, they have allowed six goals against them after the 76th minute and two after the 89th in each of their last two, both of which cost them points, they led at San Jose for 85 minutes, so the late equaliser was hugely disappointing. That was enough .....

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Good Luck.

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