FRANCE: LIGUE 1
BOTTOM 9
LAST SIX MATCHES
VALENCIENNES 40 pts -10 goal difference 6 points -5 goals 49% ranking
LORIENT
38 -12
6 -3 53%
CAEN 38 -13 9 -1 28%
NICE
37
-8 9 -1 71%
AJACCIO 37 -22 6 -4 45%
AUXERRE 34 -5 10 + 6 74%
BREST 34
-9
4 -5 38%
DIJON 34 -20 1 -8 12%
SOCHAUX 33
-24
6 -8 42%
Ranking
relates to points earned, goal difference and quality of opponent over
these last six starts.I will reserve judgement on Valenciennes, who's
need has not been quite as great as most of the other teams, but Nice
and Auxerre appear to be playing the best of the clubs at the foot of
the table and that concurs with my own judgement. Dijon have collected
fewest points and against a lower than average quality of opponent and
Caen have had a very easy recent schedule and might be vunerable even
with 38 points.
Monaco
were relegated with 44 points last year
and only lost 12 matches, the bottom 12 in Ligue
1 have already lost at least that number this season and 40 points
should be enough this season, as it normally is. The bottom three need
at least two wins to reach that total and a couple of them have tough
schedules, so might struggle to get those and it is possible that 38
might suffice. Anyway, not too much margin for error for the teams with
sub 37 points.
MONDAY :
Auxerre face an opponent also in good form on Monday when Bordeaux come to the Abbé-Deschamps stadium, the visitors have won three in a row and that has taken them up to eigth in the table, but a 6th-8th place finish is the best they can hope for, no european place up for grabs and it is hard to see them matching the intensity of their hosts, who still have a lot to do to ensure their survival. After this game, Auxerre go to Marseille and then host Montpellier, chances are that the leaders will still need something to clinch the title on the final day and OM despite their poor form, are clearly better than the league table suggests and will not want to lose their final home game of the season . So, for now, this looks about as easy as it is going to get for the rest of the camapign. Hosts have played well since we started to follow them and whilst they are playing an inform team, if the season was restarting today, I would not see too much between these two clubs in terms of where they would finish and we know which is the hungrier. I have to stick with Auxerre and am very pleased with the odds offered, which are almost a quarter ball better than I had hoped for. 1.5 units Auxerre -0.25 ball 2.12 asian line.
In
Ligue 1, we already have much the better of the early betting with the Auxerre
bet from yesterday and one other game interested me, I would have been
all over even a Sochaux side missing a couple of players at 2.0 to beat
Nancy and it is very frustrating to see a massive looking 2.20+ on
offer, but ill discipline has cost them badly and they have four
suspended this evening in Maïga, Mar.Martin, Sauget and
Mikari, with Butin already out that means they must start without their
playmaker, two top scorers and probably most important defender ! I
still couldn't bring myself to back the visitors, but if the hosts are
to claim the win they desperately need it will have to be the hard way
and
without my support.
SOCHAUX : Cros, Richert -
Banana, Carlão, Peybernes, Roussillon, Corchia - Doubaï, Boudebouz,
Poujol, Lopy, Dias, Osanga, Nogueira, Roudet - Privat, Bakambu
I definitely think that we will see goals in the Reims-Monaco game in Ligue 2,
hosts can all but seal promotion with the win, but have a trip to
Amiens on Friday to cement the deal, Monaco are probably one of the top
two teams in the league right now and we have discussed them a lot
recently, they will really welcome this opportunity to test themselves
against the side currently second in the table. It will be a very good
guide for where they stand with regard to next season, no pressure on
the visitors and they can play their normal game, which has been title
winning form since Christmas. A 2-2 scoreline would be my pick, but the "over" 2.5 goal line @ 2.05 + will be my official section for 1.25 units.
Reims : Agassa, Liébus -
Weber, Mandi, Tacalfred, Glombard, Ramaré, Pereira, Ca, Deaux,
Amalfitano, Ayité, Tainmont, Fauré, Ghilas, Courtet.
Monaco : Sourzac, Subasic - Appiah,
Kagelmacher, Labor, Pinteaux, Tzavellas, Coulibaly, Dingome, Dirar,
Giuly, Mendy, Koman, Tziolis, Barazite, Germain, Salli, Touré.
VALENCIENNES- PSG
Visitors
have one last chance to put some real pressure on Montpellier, if they
win tonight, they will go back to the top on goal difference, ahead of
the current leaders trip to Rennes on Monday, the first of a tricky trio
of remaining fixtures ( H Lille A Auxerre), if PSG can win their three
and they are FAR easier on paper, then it would just need one loss for
Montpellier to hand the title to the Parisians. This is huge for PSG and
time for the big earning superstars to put in a shift of work. We have
seen some fancy stuff from them at times this season, but now they need
to roll their sleeves up and battle. This is a very difficult stadium to
come and win at, the hosts have won ten home games, the same number as
Toulouse and Lille, considered two of the strongest
home teams in Ligue 1 and have only lost six times here in the last two
seasons. Luckily, at least in the sense that it will give them positive
mental memories of the stadium, PSG were one of those victors and have
actually won on their last three visits. Carlo Anchelotti said that
training had gone very well this week and that all the squad were very
determined to win " We are entirely focused on our next match because
we think it will be a
very important one. If we want to have any chance of finishing
champions, we need to win our three remaining matches." He admitted the
team had underperformed in their last two road starts and expected a
much improved showing this evening. Hosts on 40 points are not yet safe
from relegation concerns, but those fears might be eased a little before
kick off if both Ajaccio and Brest drop points in the early kickoffs.
Either way, if PSG show their best, there should be only one winner and
this is their most important game of the season, at least until the next
one ( !) and they have to find a way to win. They have failed to score
in just two away starts this season and appear ideally suited to palying
on the road, in a strange way there is less pressure on them as most of
the media wrote off their title chances after they blew a lead at Lille
recently, actually they have lost 11 points from winning positions in
the last eight weeks and from that aspect, they are lucky to still be in
the race, I expect them to make the
most of this one final opportunity. 1.75 units PSG -0.5 ball 1.95 + asian line.
PSG have taken almost their full squad to the game, with the exception of Milan Bisevac and Marcos Ceara.
VALENCIENNES: Brocard, Charruau, Penneteau - Bong, Ducourtioux, Gil, Isimat-Mirin,
Mater, Traoré - Camara, Cohade, Danic, Djuric, Dossevi, Gomis,
Kadir, Saez, Sanchez - Aboubakar, Samassa.
PGA TOUR : WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP
LEADERBOARD
-14 SIMPSON
-13 MOORE
-13 POINTS
-12 McILROY
-12 WATNEY
-11 FOWLER
-11 CINK
-10 OGILVY
-10 SENDEN
-10 McNEILL
A
very strong laderboard and with so much quality in this top ten, it is
very difficult to see anyone coming from off the pace to pass this group
of named players like Rory McIlroy did in 2010, with a closing 62, if
the young Ulsterman shoots anything like that, he will win going away
today, but whilst he has improved his score by two strokes each day, I
still feel he is plenty short enough in the betting and his driving and
putting have not been the best this
week and he is coming off a break since the Masters. Watney and Moore
have really disappointed in Round 4 this season and I am happy to
discount them both for the time being,
Rickie Fowler has played well here before ( closing with a 67 in 2010
for 6th) and finishing 16th last year, when the leaderboard was equally
crowded. He got something of a monkey for the season off his back
yesterday, with his first sub 70 saturday round of the season and
following a top 10 in the Zurich last week, could go close and at 17.0
he is a nice price, i made him an 11-1 chance in a 100% ( no profit)
book. I think he could possibly reward a small saver.
My
main selection is going to be the leader Webb Simpson, I made him a sub
3.0 chance to win and he can be backed at 3.40 on the exchanges (1.5
units). Simpson is looking for his third tour win in
just 17 starts and was ranked inside the top ten for Round 4 scoring in
each of the last two years ( 4th last year and 8th in 2010) , he has
not shown the same level of form on Sunday yet this year, but it is
significant that he has improved his position on one of the two
occasions , he has been in contention and he is very comfortable on this
course, where not only is he a member, but he lives just one mile away
from the facility.
Golf tournaments are
won down the finishing straight and not only has Simpson played the last
six holes in -5 ( as low as anybody), but he has also dropped the
fewest shots to par ( just one) over this sequence of holes. Playing
well, strongest over the closing holes, happy with his game ( he was
very composed in post round interview yesterday), on a course he could
hardly know better and sleeping in his own bed, what more could we ask
for ?
Fowler is worrying me though, I am sure that he will record that
breakthrough PGA win this season and when it does come it will probably
be from off the pace like today, so maybe chance a 0-25/ 0.5 unit on him
at 17.0 too. Just to stop him spoiling the party.
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