Saturday, May 19, 2012


It is difficult for me to write too much on the blog today, I have three active picks and do not want to publish either of them in full for varying reasons, there are some excerpts from today's email below and you might find a snippet of interest there. Tomorrow, I am probably covering eight events for subscribers, so will have far more leeway to share something with you on the blog so please check back then.


Two out of three correct in Ligue 2 last night and French football has gone very well for us in 2012, the second tier is going to be especially interesting and hard fought next season, with a hosts of big clubs , including Monaco, Sedan, Nantes, Lens and Auxerre all battling for a return to the top flight.

As I suspected might be the case, Venus Williams was probably forced into her comeback a little early because of the Olympics, but she is improving quickly and took Masha close yesterday, another couple of weeks of competition and we might well see a different outcome. Li Na is having big problems closing out matches right now and has admitted it has become a problem, she again let a big lead slip in a match she was coasting and the French Open champion is suffereing some mental demons. If you are trading any tennis matches live in the coming weeks and especially at Roland Garros,where she will also have the pressure of a championship defence, I am sure you will find some nice positions to oppose the talented chinese superstar , not necessarily to lose, but to make things very difficult for herself, this is something I will return to in the next two to three weeks. Interesting to see how she fares today if she gets a lead over Serena, who is now 17-0 on clay for the season.

We already have the double staked ( maximum) bet given yesterday, which I have reproduced at the foot of the email and I have two further matches to discuss. The Champions League final and one of the MLS overnight fixtures, where we have a XXXX XX XXX selection.


I never like to spend too long discussing these huge matches, we all know the teams so well and the media has usually spoken about the game for seven days + in the build up. Obviously a huge advantage for Bayern playing in the Allianz Arena, but it cannot be anymore intimidating than a trip to the Camp Nou in the semi finals, when Chelsea entered the arena in the role of Christians about to be fed to the Barce Lions. So, I do not think that home advantage will necessarilly be the deciding factor, as it puts a whole lot of additional pressure on Bayern and the visitors kind of have a ready made excuse on standby !

Both teams are missing key players through suspension and it is at the back where both are especially hard hit. Hosts are without David Alaba and Holger Badstuber in defence and the pair have made 100 starts in all competitions between them this season and will be very hard missed. They both played in the defensively shambolic 5-2 Cup final loss to Dortmund last week and were singled out by their coach as their "worst players", not the best case of man management I have ever seen. Two starting defenders missing out on possibly the biggest game of their careers and getting publicly slated by their coach , I guess he was trying to play down their loss for today's game, sacrificing the few, for the good of the many ! Bayern are also without the protection of holding midfielder Luiz Gustavo.The Blues are missing John Terry and Branislav Ivanovic from their backline and David Luiz and Gary Cahill have been listed as doubts all week, but that pair have trained everyday and I expect them to play, Florent Malouda will also be the subject of a late decision by interin coach Roberto di Matteo. Ramires and Raul Meireles are also suspended , six players out of such a high profile game is too many and the rules have to be looked at. Ramires has looked very impressive this season and will be the biggest loss for the Blues to overcome IMO, it will rob RDM of a big .... 


The first SuperClasico of the season, Chivas are the home side, but both share the Home Depot Center, so only advantage will be with the number of respective supporters. LAG have bossed this series in recent years, being unbeaten in six h2h meetings and losing just one of the last eight of these "away" games, with 50% of them draws. Neither team has exactly set the MLS on fire this season, champions LAG have won just three of their ten starts, which is very similar to the record of the "hosts", but most galling for Chivas is their home form, which has seen them go 0-0-5 this season, this is a monkey they need off their backs as soon as possible and I think that will give them even bigger motivation, if that were possible, against their biggest rival this evening. Problem for them has been the large number of late goals conceded, they have allowed six goals against them after the 76th minute and two after the 89th in each of their last two, both of which cost them points, they led at San Jose for 85 minutes, so the late equaliser was hugely disappointing. That was enough .....


Good Luck.


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