Wednesday, May 23, 2012


Today's daily notes are reproduced below, they were sent to subscribers at 10.00 UK time this morning. If you are reading them on the blog, I suggest you bet..... nothing !Unless of course, the notes tally with your own thoughts on the game in question.

The reason being that you are only seeing a small sample of the service and they are, like all gambling, subject to variance on any given day, week or even month, you have to read the daily email on a regular basis to get the best out of the information. Subscribers are already 2.5+ units up since Monday, so are freerolling with any bets they might make on these games today, which is very different to coming into them cold.

I have had to censor part of the Tippeligaen preview for fairly obvious reasons.


Two really interesting matches overnight and some brief notes about a third game, where I really like a bet at odds of circa 3.25, but which is not freely available, so I have kept it in black type.

The rest of the week is going to be incredibly busy, with two golf tournaments, the start of the French Open Tennis, the two remaining Football League Playoff finals, where I have strong opinions in each, the Copa del Rey final, plenty of MLS / Scandinavian fixtures and a whole host of friendly internationals. I am probably going to go with two daily emails for some of these days, but will update the situation later in the week. I will "definitely" have a double staked bet next midweek, asian odds will be available on Monday and if limits are high enough, I will probably release it then. Obviously, with the additional proviso that odds are good enough, but the early indications are that they will be.

Very exciting time, my two best consecutive months in each of the last two years have been June/July and I am very confident that this summer will follow suit.


Brazilian clubs have dominated the competition in recent years and are again well to the fore this year, providing four quarter finalists from five entrants and the only team to miss out on the last eight , Internacional, lost out in the round of 16 to their countrymen from Fluminense, so, once again, a very strong showing for the boys from Brazil. Looking at the all time competition record it is Argentina who have performed best, providing three of the four clubs with more than three Copa titles , but one win for Estudiantes in 2009 aside, it is only Boca Juniors who have really competed with the continent's elite in recent years, winning four championships and making a fifth final since the turn of the millenium. They look the most likely to break the stranglehold of their biggest rivals, with the three other Brazilian clubs on the opposite half of the draw and if they can find a way past Flu tonight, Boca would face either
Universidad de Chile or Libertad in the semis, which they would see as very win-able. Boca arrive in Rio holding a 1-0 lead from the first leg and this is far from a trip into the unknown with the pair coming out of the same group and Boca actually won the away game 2-0, they did not start their group campaign well, but have cranked up through the gears and looked increasingly strong both domestically and on the international stage since then. Boca went unbeaten through Apertura with a 12-7-0 record and only conceded six goals, they currently lead Clausura, albeit with a slightly less impressive 8-5-2, but they have a huge squad, have rotated their starting eleven on a regular basis in order to compete in the Copa which is a priority and virtually played a second eleven for the 2-0 win at Racing last weekend. They appear stronger every day and are clearly the best Argentine club by some way, further boost to them was the return of striker Lucas Viatri after a long term injury , he scored and gives them yet another option, one that they do not really need. Neither Juan Roman Riquelmen nor Leandro Somoza played in the earlier win here in Rio and Boca will be at their strongest and freshest this evening . The hosts will be without the creative talent of Deco and suspended Carlinhos which leaves them exposed on the left, Boca could have made this tie safe in the first leg, but the visiting keeper made several big saves and I do feel that he will be busy again at times this evening. Boca arrive on the back of three consecutive cleansheets and I have to take a little on them with the handicap start. Boca Juniors +0.25 ball 2.04 asian line.


This is a big rivalry and whilst FC Dallas arrive in poor form, without a win in seven, or cleansheet in eight and missing a number of midfieders, including star player Brek Shea, they will be determined to get something from tonight's game, not least to retain the Brimstone Cup, which these two clubs play for each year and which FCD have held for a decade. It is decided over all meetings, regardless of competition, but this is the only MLS fixture scheduled, so is almost certain to decide the destiny of the trophy, as holders, FCD will retain it with a point or better and this is a big deal for them. They have been and are injury hit in the middle of the park, but showed signs in the 1-1 draw at home to Philly on Saturday that they are close to turning the corner, coach Schellas Hyndman introduced promising young mexican Bryan Leyva to the left of midfield alongside Haitian international James Marcelin who recently signed from Portland, this allowed them to return to a 4-5-1 and they created a lot of chances for Andrew Jacobson in the opening 45 minutes. They went in at the break 1-0 up, on another day it could have been three and paid the price after that, when Philly got very physical and hustled FCD out of their stride. Leyva was a big success, he has exceptional delivery, especially from set pieces and is a player to watch in coming weeks, once Shea is back, they are a team we can keep on the right side of for a game or two. The Mexican laid on the goal with a well taken corner and they can get a lot of joy this way tonight, with Fire looking vunerable from crosses at Portland on Sunday night. Two things about that, Portlnd scored twice, their first goals in more than a month and that late kick off and 24 less recovery time meant a layover on the West Coast, a day spent travelling on Monday and only light training and limited prep work for this game yesterday. Hosts are also without a couple of key players, including German defender Arne Friedrich and probably Chris Rolfe, who still looks to need another week on the sidelines.

FCD will have right back Zach Lloyd back from suspension and Fabian Castillo should be able to play some part, he was said to be close to a return on Friday, so with another five days rest should at least be on the bench, which would be a huge bonus. I an sure that they will have been looking at the videos of the two goals the Timbers scored on saturday from set pieces, both of which were "soft". The visitors are unbeaten in six trips to Bridgeview, winning five and scoring an amazing 15 goals. I think we will see both teams score, FC Dallas are desperate for a point, especially ahead of a trip to West leaders Real SL at the weekend and will be a little fresher than Fire, who have made that 6,000 km round trip with limited recovery time ( MLS teams are used to the distances, but do not like the quick turnaround), midfield will be packed and set pieces will be key, 1-1 draw is my pick, but I will go with FC Dallas +0.5 ball 2.0 asian line.


This should be entertaining.... famous last words ! Brann are very offensive minded , like to play on the front foot and frequently leave themselves vunerable on the break . Fredrikstad are weak defensively and have kept just one cleansheet all season, I have just finished watching their 3-2 defeat at Valerenga from earlier in the month where they were 3-0 down inside 15 minutes, they were carved open very easily there, but showed great spirit to pull two back in the second half and almost claimed a very unlikely equaliser. It was a similar story at home to Stromsgodset at the weekend, two down at the break and left chasing the game. I read that defender Jorgen Horn is going to be asked to play in midfield today, he has done so before, but this kind of smacks of desperation to me and I do not think it will help the visitors keep Brann out for too long. Fredrikstad have conceded nine first half goals in their last five starts. Not too hard to see this developing into a shootout, last 16 h2h games have averaged 3.1 goals and Fredrikstad have scored on their last six visits, two or more in three of their last five and a 3-2 ( 26.0) or 4-2 ( 41.0) home win would be a good shout at nice odds, but I will opt for .... REST OF THE PREVIEW IS RESTRICTED.

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Good Luck.

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