Sunday, May 20, 2012


Scroll down a couple of posts and you will find this amongst my notes for Saturday ( yesterday) .... Li Na is having big problems closing out matches right now and has admitted it has become a problem, she again let a big lead slip in a match she was coasting and the French Open champion is suffering some mental demons. If you are trading any tennis matches live in the coming weeks and especially at Roland Garros,where she will also have the pressure of a championship defence, I am sure you will find some nice positions to oppose the talented chinese superstar , not necessarily to lose, but to make things very difficult for herself, this is something I will return to in the next two to three weeks. Interesting to see how she fares today if she gets a lead over Serena, who is now 17-0 on clay for the season.

Serena withdrew from that match up, but today Li Na played ( is playing) Maria Sharapova in the Roma Masters Final, she led 6-4 4-0 and was traded incredibly short on the exchanges (1.03), she again blew up, as avid readers might have expected and six games later the pair were all square . Now Masha is 2-0 up in the third and the Chinese player trading at circa 6.2 ! Do you know how much you can make by laying someone at 1.03 and backing them back at 6.0 + ? Just do the sums !

But of course, this info is only for the select few, not many can afford to pay two euros per day for it !

This was the post I sent to subscribers after the semi finals yesterday ....


This pair have met twice before on clay, both times at the French Open, Masha won in three sets in 2009 and Li Na winning their semi final in straight sets en route to the title last season. That was a bit of an error strewn match with plenty of break points and errors, including ten double faults for Sharapova. We discussed briefly the problem the Chinese player has had closing out matches yesterday, she threw away winning positions against Agnieszka Radwanska in Stuttgart, to Victoria Azarenka in Madrid and tried her best to follow suit in her quarter final here with Dominika Cibulkova. It was the same story in Sydney and at the Australian Open early season and it is clearly becoming a problem.
But, she is serving very well, over 75% of first serves in play this tournament and with their two previous meetings on the surface averaging 24 games ( 22 and 26), I can see plenty of value with the "over" line, but feel the best way to go is a small bet on Sharapova to win 2-1 sets @ circa 4.0 say 0.75 units and a cover ( 0.25 units) on Li Na to also win 2-1 @ 6.0 + .

Good Luck.

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