18 MINUTES GONE IN MONACO....

I offered a free email today to anyone who wanted it, three Ligue 2 previews all of which won . A little later in the day, I sent my subscribers two further previews a bet for the US Open which also won and these few lines about the UEFA Super Cup.....

UEFA Super Cup: Atletico Madrid- Chelsea

This is being played in Monaco, Atletico won here two years ago defeating Inter 2-0 and whilst both teams have started the season well, I see the Spanish club as having the greater desire tonight and this is a real chance for Radamel Falcao to impress once more on a big stage and he seems to thrive on those, he has 21 goals in his last 22 starts for club and country and was said to be an early summer target for the Blues. He will definitely not want to be playing second fiddle to Eden Hazard or Atletico former favourite son Fernando Torres, he will fancy his chances against a Chelsea backline missing John Terry.  Falcao has an amazing record in general, but especially against the bigger clubs, he scored in his last start against Real and in both league games with Barce, twice in both the Europa league semi at Valencia and final with Bilbao, six combined in the semis and final of the same competition the previous year for Porto. I would have to suggest that he will fire Atletico home tonight so odds against for them off level ball looks ok, as does 2.875 for Falcao to score at anytime, or the very tempting 13.0 for him to score two or more goals.

After 18 minues , Atletico lead 2-0 with Falcao having scored both goals !

Good luck.

 

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

UPDATE ....

In addition to the free email for today ( see below) , there is also an offer on the information blog LINK

There is not much point in my posting any posts on here today, as you have already read the three Ligue 2 previews and my notes for a match taking place later this weekend.

Good Luck.

Contact : gowi8@btinternet.com

FRIDAY OFFER ....

Fluminense and Corinthians drew 1-1, the hosts were unfortunate IMO and created a lot of very good chances ,despite their equaliser being hotly disputed by the visitors. On another day, Flu would have won this comfortably and I am happy with the bet ......... just not the result ! You can watch a short highlights package on this LINK .

I have a free copy of my daily notes up for grabs tomorrow and will send it to anyone who wants one, just send an email to gowi8@btinternet.com , with the subject title "Friday". I definitely think it is worth reading, but then I would say that !

Good Luck.

CORINTHIANS WILL STRUGGLE TO CATCH FLU !

BRAZIL SERIE A :

FLUMINENSE- CORINTHIANS

Huge game for Fluminense, three points could take them top of the table, at the very least it would keep them within a point of leaders Atletico Mineiro, who face two tough road games next week. They will be without suspended Samuel ( 12 matches- 4 goals -0 assists) and injured trio Deco ( 9-1-5) , centre back Anderson (11-1-1) and left back Thiago Carleto ( 5-0-0). Deco hasn't played in five matches, during which Flu have collected 13 points, or Anderson for even longer, over a month.

Fred has continued to shine, with nine goals and four assists in just 1098 minutes of Serie A action for Flu, so, one or other every 84 minutes he is on the pitch. Plus a 60% lifetime strike rate in Brazil, which must have Lyon wondering if the right player boarded the plane to France, at least for the last two years of his contract !

Corinthians are missing suspended centre back Paulo Andre ( 14-1-0) , they have collected just one point from five starts when he hasn't played. Also out are forwards Jorge Henrique

 ( 21-3-2 all comps and the visitors are unbeaten in all 21 of those) and Paolo Guerrero ( 6-0-0). They are in mid table no man's land, have already achieved their target for the season ( a Copa Libertadores title) and arrive here on the back of two really tough games against Santos and Sao Paulo, both of which they lost by a single goal, after leading .With little to play for, it will be tough for them to get up for a third game against another motivated opponent inside ten days. Flu have won the last two h2h meetings by a single goal and that was the margin of their four most recent wins, a fifth looks on the cards. 1.25 units Fluminense -0.5 2.26 asian line

I put this match up last night, odds are now down to circa 2.13, but I still feel it offers a little value and doubtless the quotes will continue to fluctuate between now and kick off, so you might get better at some stage. 

Good Luck.

Contact : gowi8@btinternet.com

JUST ANOTHER MANIC TUESDAY .....

Here is a heavily edited copy of my notes from today, I have put up three red type selections for my email subscribers none of which you are to read below, but I did discuss two other matches briefly and you can read those, along with early previews I wrote about the clubs concerned.

For details about how to read my daily notes in full, read this page LINK and/ or email me on gowi8@btinternet.com.

TUESDAY AUGUST 28th

Plenty to get through today, all football and across several competitions.

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE :

I am going to start with a few words about BATE Borisov and AEL Limassol, which will surprise no one. These two have served us really well already this campaign and have yet to let us down, all the relevant information is in last week's previews, wriiten before the first leg matches and reproduced below, BATE won 2-0 and that is perfect for them ( OK, maybe not as perfect as 3-0 or 4-0), but they are very comfortable on the ball and are ideally suited and hugely experienced at this level in holding on to a lead. Shmona took a long time to break down Zilina here ( 72 minutes) and despite beating Neftchi 4-0, the first goal only came a couple of minutes before the break. They know that they do not have to score early to turn ties around and will not want to concede under any circumstances, obviously BATE will be happy to keep this scoreless for as long as possible and have the players to do so. They have kept clean sheets in six of their last eight starts and not conceded a first half goal in that sequence.They cancelled their league game at the weekend, so have had a free week to prepare solely for this fixture. Not a match that I want to get overly involved in, but as we have discussed it, albeit briefly, I would put up the half time draw at circa 2.05 as the best value.

The task for AEL definitely looks tougher in terms of progression, they won 2-1 against Anderlecht a much bigger club in terms of budget and resources and a "name" on the European footballing stage. However, the Cypriot champions did not look out of their depth in the first leg, far from it and were very composed in the return match with Partizan, when many teams with lesser mental strength would have fallen apart after having a man sent off with over an hour still to play. But that away goal conceded is a big concern . They have prepared really well and arrived in Belgium at Sunday lunchtime and completed two full training sessions here, no weekend fixture for them, so fully focused on this return since last Wednesday, their hosts played out a 1-1 road draw with Oud HL, but rested a number of players for this match . As we have discussed before, AEL are physically very strong, especially in midfield and this where they will be looking to kill off the Anderlecht threat, behind them will be a defensive line of five and behind them, Argentine keeper Matias Degra looks very capable. They will be looking to steal a goal to kill the tie off and are hugely dangerous from set pieces. The hosts have shown bad nerves in qualifying in recent years, losing out to BATE, who at that time were a similar level to AEL and Partizan ( inferior), football is never that simple, but I suspect the hosts will be the more nervous of the two coming into the tie and the longer they go without scoring, the more anxious they will become. Personally I would love to see AEL progress, this is a big step up for them, but they know that APOEL not only made it to the group stage last year, but in doing so drew at Porto, Shakhtar Donetsk and Zenit, three huge clubs and qualified for the knockout stage, so the days when clubs from Cyprus went on the road with an inferiority complex have passed. No bet for me, but I would have to side with AEL +1 ball if forced to choose.

PANATHINAIKOS - MALAGA

PREVIEW RESTRICTED

EUROPA LEAGUE:

DINAMO MOSCOW - VfB STUTTGART

PREVIEW RESTRICTED

 

CONFERENCE NATIONAL :

PREVIEW RESTRICTED

Good Luck.

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: ( Written August 21st)

FC BATE BORISOV- HAPOEL KIRYAT SHMONA

We have been involved in BATE's last two away legs in the competition, favouring Vardar with the handicap start ( 0-0) at a time when the Belarus champions were in poor form and missing several key players , but backing them in Hungary ( W2-0) against Debreceni, when they were showing better form and had not only made two big name signings , but had their trio of promising youngsters back from the Olympics. Key points reproduced below....

Written August 7th

We do have a couple of Champions League fixtures and one involves BATE, whom we discussed recently ahead of their 0-0 draw with FK Vardar ( see below) and especially how poor they were suddenly playing domestically, home side Debreceni who made the group stage in 2009-10 were of some interest after drawing 1-1 in Borisov. But after watching the highlights, I am not so sure, offensively BATE looked significantly better and since the match in Skopje have signed Belarusian internationals Aleksandr Hleb and Raman Vasilyuk. Both played some part in the first leg, around 90 minutes between the hugely experienced pair and now the players who have been in London, will also return. So we can expect a big improvement in BATE in the next couple of weeks. Given that the hosts would snatch your arm off for 0-0, I can see some value in the away side at level ball at odds against. BATE level ball 2.11 asian line.

Written July 25th
From a betting perspective, tonight's matches hold little interest, I understand that BATE are going through a tough time at present, they needed two injury time goals to turn the first leg around and take an advantage of any sort to Macedonia for the return leg with FK Vardar in Skopje. The visitors are far more experienced at this level and have twice made it through to the group stage, last season and in 2008-09, when they were a pretty good team. They have certainly regressed a little since then and by their normal standards are in freefall ! They lead their domestic league by three points with a game in hand, but their lead is normally double figures and they have collected just two points from their last three league starts. They will sorely miss midfielders Renan Bressan ( 15 starts-4 goals- 3 assists) and Dmitri Baga ( 15-5-4), plus defender Denis Polyakov ( 13 starts), all of whom are in action at the Olympics and word is that Vardar and their supporters are really up for this one. The match is a 33,000 sell out, the atmosphere will be white hot and odds look on the skinny side for the visitors, who do not need to win, but I know very little about the home side ( I did try to get hold of some highlights)  , so will have to pass. However, if this is a match you are interested in Bate do have their own YouTube channel and you can see a lot of highlights of recent games on there and yes, they are struggling atm !  LINK

Those two matches worked out perfectly, for us, as well as BATE, they both came on the back of very disappointing showings in the first leg on home soil and they will not want to do things the hard way a third time. Israeli clubs are traditionally strong at home and Hapoel have won both CL matches in Shmona in seemingly impressive style, beating Zilina of Slovakia 2-0 and Neftchi of Azerbaijan 4-0. The visitors do not have much european experience, just one UEFA cup appearance in 2008-09 when they lost in the second qualifying round, they have spent most of the last decade yo-yoing between the top two divisions, before claiming a shock championship win last season, securing the title with five rounds to spare. The long trip to Minsk, where BATE play their bigger games is not only a trip into the unknown for Hapoel, but a definite step up in class and they have to play without striker David Solari and holding midfielder Bryan Gerzicich, along with Macedonian international midfielder Darko Tasevski, Gerzicich is probably their key player and amongst the first names on the team sheet and Hapoel have no real, or at least experienced, natural replacement.

They rode their luck against Zilina in the first leg, where they lost 1-0, the hosts missed a penalty and the Hapoel goalkeeper was in inspired form, they deservedly turned the second leg around but both goals came late and from terrible defensive errors from the same player. They also benefitted from some very sloppy defending in their demolition of Neftchi, after holding out for 40 minutes the Azerbaijan champions went to pieces over the next thirty and the tie was lost.

It is very difficult to see the hugely experienced BATE team making similar errors and defensively they look solid, conceding just once ( to Debreceni and against the run of play) in five starts, they always see the move to the much bigger Dynama Stadium as giving them a "lift" and they arrive with a fully fit squad ,apart from midfielder Dmitri Baga, but the addition of Alexandr Hleb more than makes up for that and the club showed further ambition this last week by resigning another former star in Mikhail Sivakou, part of the team which reached the 2008 Champions League Group Stage and who first put BATE on the bigger European stage. He played 80 minutes in the weekend 0-0 draw with Gomel, Hleb just over an hour, Radzionau likewise and others including Bressan ( who had a goal and assist in the previous outing, a 4-0 win at Naftan.... it should have been six or seven btw) were not used at all, there is now huge competition for places and they are fully focused on reaching the group stage for the third time in seven years. Their midfield looks silky smooth, with huge levels of experience and talent and the loss of Gerzicich will be sorely felt by the visitors in this key area. 1.75 units BATE -0.5 ball 1.97 asian line.

AEL LIMASSOL- ANDERLECHT

I make no excuses for sticking with AEL who did us two massive favours against Partizan in the last round (see below), they have a much tougher task tonight against a hugely experienced european campaigner, but we get a handicap start and I feel strongly that the Belgian champions would be happy with a draw and try to reach the group stage for the first time in seven seasons in the home leg.

Written August 8th

PARTIZAN BELGRADE- AEL LIMASSOL

We discussed the first leg last week ....

I really like the look of this Limassol team. They did not beat much in the previous round seeing off Linfield 3-0 in the stifling heat of a Cypriot summer and whilst Partisan might be more used to the heat than the Northern Irish side, the humidity, even with slightly reduced tempertaures is going to be a problem for the Serbians. Regardless of the level of opponent, it is impossible to hide quality and AEL look to have plenty in their ranks. They strolled around against Linfield, looked very accomplished and confident and incredible dangerous from set pieces. They are made up mostly of Portugese/ Brazilian and African players with a smattering of locals, four of the five Cypriot outfield players are full internationals. Of the six Portugese, three have played for the U21 team, including Sa who was at Fulham last season, one is a full international and the other has played for his adopted Cape Verde, each is very experienced. The three Brazilians and Argentine keeper are all seasoned pros, most of whom have been in Cyprus for at least a year.There are six Africans, all are full internationals and the Angolan trio of Airosa, Gilberto and Dede look really useful , the last two named are very dangerous going forward Gilberto played almost a decade at AlAhly the biggest African club side and is incredible productive down the left, creating a lot of goalscoring chances for the strikers, a lot of height in the AEL team with several players over 1.88m and they poise a big threat aerially. Coach Pambos Christodoulou won the championship for AEL in his first season in charge and after following APOEL as champions they are now looking to emulate their success in last year's Champions League where APOEL made the quarter finals. Partizan have huge european experience, but it is now nine years since they made it to the group stages of this competition and they lost 2-0 to APOEL here, at exactly the same stage three seasons ago. Last year the Serbian team lost to Shamrock Rovers in the Europa League and are not at their best at this time of year and are so dominant domestically, that they get little real competition on a regular basis. They beat Valletta of Malta 7-2 on aggregate in the previous round, but conceded in both and it is very difficult to see them keeping a clean sheet tonight. Cypriot teams are notoriously tough to beat on home ground, especially at this stage of the season, AEL look as good as any from the country we have seen in recent seasons, techically good and very solid at the back. Cyprus clubs are ranked 11 spots ahead of Serbian teans by UEFA and that seems about right, Partizan would probably settle for a one goal loss and away goal right now, as they too are far happier on home soil. I expect a home win, 1.75 units AEL -0.25 ball asian line 1.90 +.

AEL won 1-0, it should really have been two, but they made a cleansheet more of a priority and now they have to go to Belgrade and protect it. The Cypriot champions showed more pace in the first game and were very dominant in midfield, even the Partizan website said they were worried by the "physical advantage " that the AEL players had, "especially in midfield, where they won almost every tackle" and looked to have a big edge. Partizan coach Vladimir Vermezovic also pointed out that the hosts were a good side and very dangerous from set pieces, which was some highlighted above from the Linfield match. All three teams from Cyprus got good results in the Europa League, including a 0-0 draw in Serbia for Omonia against Crvena Zvezda , in a match where the home side only had one attempt on target in 90 minutes, a result which will give AEL great heart. I have to take a little on them to complete the job AEL Limassol +0.5 ball 2.06 asian line.

AEL are pleased with what they have achieved so far and coach Charalampos Christodoulou said " We are not finished yet, we are hungry to succeed and go further in this competition,  we want to do something that will make our families, this club and all our fans so very proud of us. He is without suspended Monteiro in midfield, he was sent off in the second leg against Partizan with over an hour still to play, which makes the 1-0 win all the more noteworthy, they completely stifled the hosts attacking threat ( as it was) and could even have increased their lead.They played their B team in the Super Cup match at the weekend, so have had a clear fortnight to focus solely on this match.

 Hot and Humid in Cyprus and Anderlecht left early on Monday to try and get used to the conditions, they traveled without several important players, but most have not featured this season. I think they would be delighted with a draw and have to take 1.5 units AEL +0.25 ball 1.95 asian line.

Good Luck.

NOT EVERYTHING THAT CAN BE COUNTED COUNTS, AND NOT EVERYTHING THAT COUNTS CAN BE COUNTED .....Albert Einstein

 

I don't really see the fascination with "results" and have explained my thinking behind this many times (LINK), it might just be a personal thing, but I do not care if someone has won for three, six or even ten  weeks. I could read just two or three previews and decide if the writer had something to contribute and would be of value to me, if that is the case, results will always follow and there would/ should be something to take from the previews in any case. However, I know that many of you do put value in them, so I will continue to post the email service results for another five weeks, that will be 26 weeks in total , six months is a pretty big sample and is going to be close to 470 bets, circa 600 previews, enough for anyone and after that I will not update them. It is a bit of a pointless exercise when red type selections are about 40% of the value of the daily email service IMO.

 

Over the last 21 weeks I have previewed  over 460 events on the email service and put up 380 red type selections, stakes were  a total of 460.25 units and returns 575.69 units, a ROI of 125.08 % and a profit of 115.44  units.

 

A 40 euro flat stake would have earned you 4,617 + at the rate of 220 euros per week.

$200, a whopping $23,088, at an average of almost $1,100 for each of the 21 weeks.

Almost all selections were freely available to back on the asian handicap, or for big four figure liquidity on the exchanges.

BUT THE SERVICE HAS SO MUCH MORE TO OFFER THAN THAT.

In addition to the red type selections, I have also put up "suggestions" in this sequence that have won at odds of 28-1 LINK  25-1 LINK , 9-1 LINK, 8-1 and many others, none of which are included in the profits shown above. 

Email service details and samples on this LINK

If you are interested in subscribing to the daily service email me at gowi8@btinternet.com  ,it is a very pain free process !

Good Luck.

SUNDAY UPDATE ....

There is a new match preview available to read on the GOWI Facebook page, button/link to the left of this post. "Like" GOWI on Facebook to make sure you get to see all the free previews in future.

Alternatively, spend two euros per day, subscribe to the email service and get all my daily notes delivered directly to your inbox.

Details

Good Luck.

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

SATURDAY NIGHT THRILLER !

Columbus Crew won a seven goal thriller in Ohio, thanks to a brace of goals from Jairo Arrieta and Federico Higuain, both of whom we discussed in the match preview below.

So, blog readers had access to three selections yesterday ( including two from two in the J-League preview, which was offered to anyone who wanted it), all of which won.

I have previewed just three matches/events today, but will post one later this afternoon ( I am spoling you this weekend !).

Good Luck.

ROCK STEADY CREW .......

MLS: COLUMBUS CREW-NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION

Goals have been a problem for Crew all season and only Philadelphia Union in the East have scored fewer, however, things are looking up in this department. They signed pacey Costa Rica striker Jairo Arrieta almost as soon as the transfer window opened and he has hit the ground running with three goals and two assists in seven outings, but it is the signing of new designated player Federico Higuain ( brother of Gonzalo), which has really got the supporters excited . He is the highest paid player in club history and Crew have shown great ambition in bringing him to the MLS, Higuain made his debut off the bench at Houston on Sunday and his first start in the midweek win over Toronto, making a huge impact with two assists and a goal across the two matches. This has got the locals salivating and dreaming of a post season spot. They need to make the top five, they are currently 7th, seven points off the pace with a game in hand . Crew can afford few slip ups and definite not one at home against a Revolution side who cannot wait for this annus horribilis to end.

New England are already out of playoff contention, have lost their last four and six of their last seven, collecting just a single point in that sequence. The team lacks cohesion and coach Jay Heaps has fallen out with some players, unloaded a much loved other one and appears to have lost the plot, he is a former Revolution player ( 250 starts) so that might buy him a little more time, but not much. Some of his recent decisions have been very hard to comprehend. Anyway, tough game for Revolution, who desperately need a home win and they have two of those coming up next week, I think we will see them more focused on those matches.

No real problems for Crew, midfielder Bernardo Anor ( 11 matches-one goal) is out , along with a couple of long term injuries, but Anor has not played for six weeks in any case.

For Revolution, ever present midfielder Lee Nguyen (24-4-1) is said to be doubtful, he played injured last week and had to leave the field after at the break, when clearly not fit ( one of those poor Heaps decisions). Alec Purdie (midfield 4 starts), Bobby Shuttleworth (keeper 3 starts) and Blair Gavin (left back 9 starts) are all out, but not big losses.

I cannot see beyond the home win, however, this will be Crew's third start in seven days so I will stick to just the flat stake one unit Columbus Crew -0.5 ball 1.97 asian line.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY UPDATE ..... IT'S HARD TO EVEN GIVE THINGS AWAY NOWADAYS !

I know that it was "only" Japanese football and that might not be top of most peoples agenda on a Saurday, but my J-League notes were free and available to anyone who wanted them ( see below).

Two previews, I said the games were "interesting" and I even posted a reminder, so that should have made you curious and both selections won at odds of 2.13 and 2.12, unfortunately, only a handful of you wanted them, if I used smilies, I would post a sad faced one here, but never mind.

My main Saturday email contains four other previews, one each for England, Scotland, Brazil and US football. I was going to post one of these on the blog, but am a little "hurt" by your apathy !

Good Luck.

Only messing ! I will post a preview on here in about an hour.

SATURDAY .....

STILL A COUPLE OF HOURS TO GET A FREE COPY OF THOSE J-LEAGUE NOTES. DETAILS BELOW .

Good Luck.

FRIDAY UPDATE ....

I have finished my J-League notes nice and early this week, they were not due until 08.00 UK in the morning, but I am going to send them to subscribers at 18.30 UK tonight.

If anyone else would like a copy, there are only two previews, but they are interesting IMO . Then send an email to gowi8@btinternet.com, with the subject title J-League and I will forward them after 21.00 UK  today.

Good Luck.

TIME FOR GUINGAMP TO COME GOOD .....

FRANCE LIGUE 2:

NIORT- GUINGAMP

We spoke about the hosts on Matchday 1, when they hosted Clermont ......

Niort are back in Ligue 2 after four years in the wilderness, infact, successive relegations saw then slip into the fourth tier for the 2009-10 season, they got back up to National at the first attempt and returned to their former position at the second attempt. They are a small club, but will be very determined to retain their status and to do that, they are going to have to win a lot of home games, they are traditionally strong here ( 55% win rate over the last 7 seasons, despite that sequence including two relegations), they played of the same teams as Clermont in pre season and had similar results, they will be without keeper Paul Delecroix who is injured along with a whole host of other players including experienced central midfielder Vincent Durand and several defensive players, Djibril Konate is suspended. That is  a lot of experience missing in a key area from a club with not many players left who have performed at this level.

They battled for a point in a 1-1 draw that day and took five from their opening three starts, before conceding a late, late controversial winner at Laval last week, their first loss of the season. They played well there and also for periods in their only win so far, at home to Caen, we discussed that match last week (see preview below), but they were fortunate to win in the end, so five points is probably about right so far and I doubt that, if they were being honest, they would be too upset with that tally.

Guingamp, who are traditionally slow starters (winning 2 from 8 last season, 2 from six in 2010 ( when they were champions), 2 from 7 in 2009 and none from eight in 2008 !), will definitely not be happy with their four points, they could/should have collected at least nine and have been playing at a higher level. They have already played the top two , led against leaders Monaco last week and should have scored four at Dijon, they look full of goals and if they can just start to close out matches ( having led in their last three), they have a good opportunity to be contending towards the top of the table. They finished seventh last season and look stronger this time round IMO. They have big competition for starting places, especially in midfield and have no real problems today, only left back Dorian Leveque is missing and he has not played all season.

The hosts are still missing Paul Delecroix and Vincent Durand ( see above), plus striker Jerome Lafourcade, left back Quentin Bernard returns to the squad tonight, but they remain short of options at the back ( Djibril Konate still  suspended) and that is going to hurt what is already a very small and at this level, inexperienced squad. The visitors have too much going forward and I make them a solid bet with the draw no bet safegurad. 1.5 units Guingamp level ball 2.11 asian line..... now trading at 1.92

Niort : Roche, Elissalde - Letzelter, Bong, Pallois, Bernard, Ricaud, J. Gastien, Gonzalez, Roye, Diaw, Durak, Lahaye, Juan, Hébras, Glombard.

Guingamp : Samassa, Planté - Martins-Perreira, Bellugou, Cerdan, Babiloni, Atik, Diallo, Mathis, Giresse, Mandanne, Fauré, Imbula, Kerbrat, Yatabaré, Charrier.

Good Luck.

CONTACT : gowi8@btinternet.com

TGIF ....THE WEEKEND STARTS HERE !

I have just sent out my Friday email notes, they contain three match previews including two from Ligue 2 in France. The email contained news of one team missing a key player, his club have collected an average of 2.05 points when he plays and 0.625 when he is unavailable. I also spoke of another team hugely vunerable from set pieces, meeting an opponent who have scored over half their goals from dead ball situations.

I will probably preview around 14-15 matches/events this weekend in total for subscribers, they can make up their own mind from that number of options, what to back. I will probably post 2-3 of them either on here, or on Facebook. To ensure you get to read them please check back and also remember to "like" the GOWI Facebook page, the link/ button to the left of this post will take you there directly.

Should you wish to read all of my previews, you will have to sign up to the email service, you can read full details here LINK or contact me on gowi8@btinternet.com .

Good Luck.

EUROPA LEAGUE .....

MOTHERWELL - LEVANTE UD

Levante have no European experience, but, as we discussed in depth last season ,this competition has been dominated in recents seasons by teams form the Iberian Peninsular and Russia/ Ukraine and they will be looking to go deep and make their mark on a bigger stage, having said that and despite a 6th place finish in La Liga last year, survival in the top flight will doubtless be their real priority this season. They opened with a 1-1 draw with Atletico, with all the action, such as it was, coming in the opening 20 minutes. Levante like to sit deep and play on the counter, which is how this is likely to play out, Well lost 5-0 on aggregate to Panathinaikos in their Champions League qualifier earlier this month, they tried to take the game to their classier opponent and struggled with the Greeks on the break.

No Simon Ramsden for the hosts, the central defender has started all five games for the SPL club this season and is seen as a big loss, but this illustrates the divide between the two clubs, Ramsden was signed at age 30 from L2 club Bradford City and has spent much of the last two years injured. Winger Omar Daley is also considered another important player and was also deemed surplus to requirements at Bradford City, both were well known to boss Stuart McCall, previously in charge at City. No disrespect to either player, I am just trying to show the gulf in class, but they are fourth tier footballers in England, not wanted by a club struggling at the foot of L2, but deemed good enough to start in the SPL. 

Levante played 38 matches last season and finished above Sevilla, Athletic Bilbao and a whole host of other talented teams. They did lose Kone to Wigan and Papakouli Diop is not eligible tonight, but their game is more about the collective and they should have enough to win this, but whether there is any real value in their odds of circa 1.88 is open to debate. Motherwell held out for 50 minutes in Greece and McCall is talking about being a little more "cute" defensively this evening, but also knows his side need a lead to take to Spain. No bet for me, but a possible "in play" angle .... WHICH IS ONLY AVAILABLE TO SUBSCRIBERS.

Friday, Saturday and Sunday all offer far better opportunities.

Good Luck.

Contact : gowi8@btinternet.com

THURSDAY UPDATE ....

The Champions League preview I spoke about yesterday and which was freely available for anyone to read on Facebook won 2-0, it was a 1.75 unit selection , which is a very strong ranking for me and quite rare ,odds were decent at 1.97 and 1.90 + was available almost all day.

There will be occasional posts on there, so if you do not want to miss any free selections, click the button on the left and "like" the GOWI facebook page.

Good Luck.

Contact: gowi8@btinternet.com

WEDNESDAY ....

There is a preview of one of tonight's Champions League matches on the new blog Facebook page, just click the button to the LEFT of this post to read it.  There will be occasional free content on that page which might not appear on here, to make sure that you view everything , it is best to "like" GOWI on Facebook.

Good Luck.

Contact : gowi8@btinternet.com

TUESDAY .... STATISTICALLY SPEAKING ...

Over the last 20 weeks I have previewed  over 440 events on the email service and put up 363 red type selections, stakes were  a total of 440 units and returns 549.74 units, a ROI of 124.94 % and a profit of 109.74  units.

 A £10 unit flat stake would have won £1097.4 euros at an average of almost £55 per week . 

60 euros would have earned you 6,584 at the rate of 330 euros per week.

$200, a whopping $21,948, at an average of almost $1,100 for each of the 20 weeks.

Almost all selections were freely availbale to back on the asian handicap, or for big four figure liquidity on the exchanges. More details at the foot of this post.

TUESDAY AUGUST 21ST

I am going to stick with the Football League fixtures today and will start with a few stats.

It is very hard to win both opening matches in the FL and over the last three seasons only 32.8 % of teams that took maximum points on Matchday 1 have won their second start, that equates to a price of 3.05, of course, some of these teams would have met in their second start, but I don't think we have to get too caught up with that, as you could argue that, with perhaps a sub 30% chance of a draw, that should not decrease the overall chances of one of them winning.

Eleven teams have been priced significantly shorter to win again this midweek and might be possible to oppose, I am going to take on two of them and a couple of others, including Hull City and Barnsley are available at much higher odds than that 31.5 % chance of winning. Of course it is not quite that simple.... if only !

BTW, before someone picks up on this, of the teams that did win twice a very high 67% of them played on the road in the second match, so, be a little of wary of teams playing at home tonight on the back of opening road wins, especially at shortish odds.

Looking at the attempts on goal count, there are some fun stats. Shrewsbury Town had 19 attempts .....all off target, which is very hard to manage, so, congratulations to them, Aldershot had two, both on target and won 2-0 away to Plymouth Argyle, boss Dean Holdsworth was absolutely deadly in the lower leagues ( especially in the Brentford promotion team of 91-92) and must have passed something on to his strikers.

Portsmouth fielded eleven debutants in front of almost 18,000 loyal supporters and were denied by the woodwork three times ! FL newcomers Fleetwood Town created a league high 22 attempts on goal, Southend United were next best with 20, but lost 1-0 at home to Accrington Stanley. Crawley Town had an incredible 654 attempts last season in L2 and clearly intend to carry on in the same vein at the higher level, with 19 including ten on target in a 3-0 defeat of Scunthorpe United, that total last season was 105 more than any club in L1 and 150+ more than Swindon Town who went up as L2 champions and whom host Crawley tonight, but before you rush to back the visitors, be advised that Paulo Di Canio's men won both meetings last season, by an aggregate 6-0 , that's statistics for you!

Scunthorpe have now let in eight goals in two starts ( league and cup) and allowed 54 attempts on their goal in those pair of matches !

I am going to take in a match tonight , at the moment I am undecided about whether to go to Aldershot-Exeter City or Watford- Ipswich Town ( exciting life !), my heart is obviously telling me I should be at Griffin Park, but I will be getting updates from there anyway. If it is possible ( Watford has been a problem before), I will send a brief update from "my" game and Brentford-Yeovil Town at half time, just a few lines for anyone who is interested and thoughts on how the betting lines look at the break, but no red type selections, just so you know.

Anyway, down to business and I have two previews for today.....

TODAY'S MATCH PREVIEWS ARE RESTRICTED.... ONLY AVAILABLE TO SUBSCRIBERS 

Good Luck.

In addition to the 20 weeks red type selections detailed at the top of this post.I have also put up "suggestions" in this sequence that have won at odds of 28-1 LINK  25-1 LINK , 9-1 LINK, 8-1 and many others, none of which are included in the profits shown above.

You can view five years of stats on the blog here LINK and on that page there are further links to more detailed country by county and sport by sport breakdowns, back in the day, most of my picks were on the blog, now just a very small sample.

You can read an explanation of how the email service works and also nine day's worth of recent emails in full on this LINK , including one complete week.

CONTACT :  gowi8@btinternet.com

SLEEP OF THE RIGHTEOUS ....

SUNDAY AUGUST 19th

I can live with losing periods, they are part and parcel of gambling and you are going to end up a mess if you cannot accept that they are going to happen, but what I really dislike are those spells when you win one day, lose the next, win, lose, they really wind me up, as they seem like a series of false dawns. I realise that sounds crazy, as it is obviously better than an extended losing period, but at least with them you know that a change is always just around the corner.

After a spell of close to four months virtually without a losing week of note, I expected a couple of losing weeks, instead it has been a month of WLWL sequences and it is frustrating. I had a very good day Friday, a poor Saturday afternoon with all three bets losing and two winners last night ( Fluminense to win by exactly one goal was especially pleasing) to almost bring the day round.

On the plus side, Aldershot Town won on the road and Watford found a late, late winner at Crystal Palace, which along with the win for Cardiff City on Friday meant that all the teams we looked at in the Football League outright markets started extremely well.

Bad news is, that I obviously have a clear conscience and despite the very hot weather, overslept by a couple of hours, which happens about every 3-4 years, so am way behind schedule this morning . Going to see what I can get done in this email and will probably have to put the rest into a follow up.

Let's start on the USPGA tour and the Wyndham Championship leaderboard, where Sergio Garcia leads by one stroke from both Bud Cauley and Tim Clark, but with sixteen players in total within four shots of the lead, it is a wide open field. Cauley is a 22yo rookie, but has posted six top ten's from just 28 starts in the last 12 months, including one third and incredibly, four fourth placed finishes. He might well get that breakthrough win today, but until he does, I would prefer to pass, that elusive first win is always the hardest. Sergio is supremely gifted and has even putted fairly well this week, which has been his achilles heel for many years, but the pressure is on today and who knows how he will respond. He does have seven US tour wins, but only one ( 2008) in the last seven years, he should have had 20 on tour by now and he is not one to trust on the final day. Garcia is ranked 149th on tour for R4 scoring in 2012, he was 51st last year and 180th in 2010 ! We spoke about Tim Clark ahead of the final round at the Travelers Championship in June .....Tim Clark has one win in the US and it is a biggy ( the Players Championship) but is something of a nearly man with nine runner up spots and has not yet built on that breakthrough win, which is now more than two years ago, but he missed most of 2011 through elbow surgery, so perhaps it will still happen, he and Kuchar are -7 for the closing six holes and look the most likely to put in a big run today.

He was off the pace going into that round, but we took a little at 25-1,the South African shot a 67 and came close, finishing in fourth place ( one hole cost him dear), he has since played four events and after returning from the rigors of the Open at Lytham, has finished 15th in the Canadian Open and 11th at the PGA Championship, so clearly he is near the top of his game. He has played wonderfully tee to green this week and is ranked number one for greens in regulation, but the putter has let him down and two short putts missed on the back nine, probably cost him the overnight lead, He is due to sink a few and didn't seem to be overly worried about this in his post round interview.....

Q.  I'm going to count myself very honored getting to watch that ball striking display today.

TIM CLARK: Yeah, I felt like I was in control of my ball probably better than the first two days and just wasn't able to make the putts I needed but, you know, it's nice to hit it like that today and obviously that's going to do me good tomorrow.

Q. You must be feeling good going into tomorrow with such control of the ball. The putter, is that an issue or just leave yourself in spots that were hard to make from?

TIM CLARK: No. I just -- I left a couple above the hole which that's going to happen out here. The first two days I was making those putts. Nothing to worry about. Just got to come out tomorrow and really be confident that I'm going to make them.

I believe Clark will find a win before the end of the season, he is ultra hungry after missing last year and is hitting the ball too well and getting into contention too often now for it not to happen soon, I suspect it will be today. Tim Clark to win outright 6.50 +, there is four figure liquidity at 6.80 and 7.0 on the exchanges.

EPL: WIGAN ATHLETIC - CHELSEA

My first EPL bet of the season and whilst it is from the school of the blindingly obvious, I expect it to be a comfortable winner. The visitors are traditionally fast starters and are 6-1-1 , 8-1-1, 7-0-1 and 6-2-0 in the last four seasons, two of those sequences included trips to the DW stadium in August and they won both with a combined 7-0 scoreline. In the last four years Athletic have won just one of their opening two matches ( eight starts).

The hosts have managed to hold on to coach Roberto Martinez, which seemed very unliklely at the end of last season, but have lost Mohamed Diamé and Hugo Rodallega, Victor Moses looks sure to follow suit before the transfer deadline and most likely to Chelsea. He is included in the squad, but it is not certain if he will play and if he does, where his head will be. The Latics have added Ivan Ramis and Arouna Kone an experienced pair coming off big seasons in Spain who have been brought in to add a steady head to a youngish Wigan squad, but Ramis is doubtful today and it is not easy to immediately adapt to the pace of PL football, especially if you are being asked to help others. Chelsea supporters should see PL debuts for both Eden Hazard and Oscar today ( but we are talking about players bought for ten times the price of the Wigan pair) and despite his sending off in the Community Shield, Branislav Ivanovic is available.

Diame, Moses and Rodallega all played big roles in the two matches between the clubs last season, only one could play today and we are not sure how committed he will be, the youngster was raised in South London and has clearly been affected by the talk of a return to the capital. Talking of which, after today Chelsea do not play another PL match outside London until November 3rd, which must be some kind of record. Anyway, they are going to have to take maximum points from these kind of fixtures , if they are to put increased pressure on the two Manchester clubs this season. 1.5 units Chelsea -0.75 ball  asian line.

Al Habsi, Alacaraz, Caldwell, Figueroa, Gomez, McArthur, Boyce, Beausejour, Maloney, Kone, Moses. In a 3-4-3 is the best guess at Wigan's line up, Maloney and Kone have 13 PL starts between them and that is too little experience upfront IMO.

I have two very confident selections for the overnight football action from the MLS and Brazil and will include those in a second email in about 90 minutes time.

Good luck.

LIGUE 2 : WHERE THE WEEKEND STARTS ....

FRIDAY AUGUST 17th

A reminder that the next email will be at 21.00 tonight ( Friday), that will include the previews for tomorrow morning's J-League fixture, full schedule for the rest of the weekend , is at the very foot of this email.

With regard to new content I am only covering Ligue 2 in these notes, but I have also reproduced below the early bet for today, previewed a couple of days ago. So, four selections to start a hugely busy weekend.

FRANCE: LIGUE 2

ARLES- ANGERS

Two teams who are proving very difficult to beat, Arles are 8-14-1 in their last 23 starts, Angers 7-2-2 in their last eleven. Hosts are without fringe striker Teji Savanier and are otherwise at full strength,  the visitors are missing Fodé Doré ( striker played in all games so far), Ibrahima Diallo ( left back... played all), Malik Couturier ( not played this year, but key central defender who played 34 matches last season),  Diego Gomez ( three starts, only missed the loss against Guingamp), Yoric Ravet (forward 2-1-0) and Richard Socrier ( forward 3-1-1). Gomez looks a big loss, they have lost 1 in 16 when he has played ,2 from three when he has missed out.

Arles look ultra solid at the back, we discussed recently the addition of Zarour .... Zarour was, by Arles standards, a big summer signing from Dijon over the summer, he played a lot of Ligue 1 games last season and in Dijon's promotion season , his team lost just two of 17 in which he played all 90 minutes..... and with David Suarez, Ladislas Douniama and Chaouki Ben Saada in the team now, also new additions, goals should be easier to come at the other end of the pitch. Suarez played 32 games for champions Basita last season and has scored five in his last 12 starts, Ben Saada is a talented midfielder signed from Lens, for whom he played sixty matches in the last two seasons, half in Ligue 1, Douniama is a Congolese and has plenty of experience at this level and above. Very much a 1X game, but given the players missing for Angers and the increased options and overal upgrade for Arles and how difficult they are to beat, I have to take 1.25 units Arles -0.25 ball 2.02 asian line.

Arles-Avignon : Butelle, Yattara - Cantini, Zarour, Abdelhamid, N'Diaye, Cardy, Soro, Douniama, Sangaré, Ben Saada, Suarez, Rocchi, Plessis, Dalé, Germany.

Angers : Malicki, Letellier - Fall, Henin, Zoro, Boyer, Bouka Moutou, Auriac, Manceau, Frikeche, El Jadeyaoui, Diers, Rousseau, Keserü, Dogo, N'Samé.

CAEN-CLERMONT

PREVIEW RESTRICTED TO SUBSCRIBERS

Caen : Perquis, Bosmel - Calvé, Wague, Sorbon, Guerreiro, Seube, Agouazi, Nabab, Fajr, Cuvillier, Duhamel, Pierre, Mbone, Moulin, Poyet.

Clermont : Farnolle, Fabre - Bockhorni, Esor, Fomen, Imorou, Saïss, Salze, Bayod, Capelle, Ekobo, Lacombe, Moreira, Sylla, Armand, Dembélé.

ISTRES - CHATEAUROUX

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Istres : Petric, Veronese - Chafik, Chelle, Barillon, Cantareil, Bru, Ba, Genest, De Préville, Akrour, Fettouhi, Sainati, El Hemdaoui, Touati, Tardieu, Tarasconi.

Châteauroux : Caradec, Millieras - Fournier, Sambou, Neves, Afougou, Nestor, Orinel, Hautcoeur, Beauvue, De Freitas, Tainmont, Guerriero, Essombé, Jeannot, Chamed.

CARDIFF CITY - HUDDERSFIELD TOWN ( Written and sent Tuesday August 14th)

PREVIEW RESTRICTED TO SUBSCRIBERS

FRIDAY: Two emails :

#1 @ 10.00 will cover all the Friday action, including Ligue 2 from France.

#2 @ 21.00 will include the J-League previews for Saturday morning action.

SATURDAY: Two emails:

# 1@ 09.30 will look at the days Football League matches.

#2 @ 11.30 will include all the evening action, that's MLS, Brazilian and anything else of interest.

SUNDAY: Email to be sent @ 10.45 will include all the days football, plus the final round of the USPGA tour event.

Good Luck.

CONTACT : gowi8@btinternet.com

EMAIL SERVICE DETAILS : LINK

HEAVILY EDITED THURSDAY NOTES .....

THURSDAY AUGUST 16th

The timing was right with the Premier League post as the RVP transfer went through yesterday and 3.25 is now the top quote, in Brazil, Palmeiras won 1-0 and Flamengo again conceded at the "usual" time, which was perfect for anyone betting "in play" ( see foot of email).

I have one more game in Brazil to discuss today, along with a few words about Championship and League 1 football, including a strong early bet for the weekend and a team of interest in League 2.

BRAZIL SERIE A:

 

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......, but that is not really an option with the hosts, who have scored a very high 46% of all their goals this season in the first half, with a massive 29% between the 15th-30th minute.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP: OUTRIGHT

We already have those very early bets ( June 19th) on Watford at big odds 66-1 to win and 14-1 for promotion and they look solid , the Hornets might need time, but the Pozzo family have a blueprint for success and achieved it in double quick time at both Udinese and Granada. They have already begun to ship the players in from the other two clubs, although most are Udinese players anyway and I suspect that this will continue, until they find the right combination/ blend for Watford . Last year Watford finished 11th, just eleven points off the palyoffs, so we are not talking about them needing huge improvement to get involved at the business end. Players like Alex Geijo with 28 goals in 60 Granada starts, Daniel Pudil with Serie A and Champions League experience last season, Almen Abdi ( 33 starts for Udinese last season) etc are going to bring a lot to the Championship and they have been brought in along with some really promising young talent like 19 yo Leo Beleck who scored plenty of goals for the Udinese B team and played 25 matches for AEK in Greece last season. Anyway, the Hornets are now down to 33-1 and 9-1 respectively, we have good value and should get some fun for our money.

I spoke about ......  PREVIEW RESTRICTED

Just a few words about ...... PREVIEW RESTRICTED  ......He could definitely have a 20 goal season with a little luck and that would make his 33-1 quote in the top goalscorer market look big.

ENGLISH LEAGUE 1: EARLY SATURDAY BET

PREVIEW RESTRICTED

LEAGUE 2

I have two teams that I think will go very well this season and both are big prices, but at this stage I am not backing either and want to keep quiet about one until they make the two signings, a forward and central defender , that I believe are imminent. The other is Aldershot Town, they have picked up a couple of injuries to key players coming into the season and I am going to hold off on them for the time being. Long term readers might recall that I was very keen on them to do well through the early part of last season, when I wrote ahead of their opener ....It is a completely different story at Aldershot, don't get me wrong, they are not exactly flush with funds, but boss Dean Holdsworth who made a very promising start to life as a coach at Newport County, is ultra professional in his approach. He had half a season to find out what was working and what was not at the Recreation Ground and has had the off season to get his own men in, including a very high level( by League 2 standards) backroom team. Deano, who was a hero at Brentford in a former life, is very thorough and keen to make a fast start to this campaign. So those of you that are only with me short term, please make a note of that. Not only were the Shots one of the first teams back training, but the entire squad trained at some time through the summer four or five at a time, this means they are very fit and advanced in preparation.The Shots did start pretty well, winning on that first day of the season and again at now PL side West Ham United in the Carling Cup, but they struggled for consistency and it was not until the second half of the campaign that they really came on strong, posting three separate five match plus unbeaten runs in 2012, collecting an average of 1.9 points from their last 20 matches, which over the full season, would have seen them finish in third place. The Shots also did the double over fourth placed Southend and lost only one in five against Swindon, Shrewsbury and Crewe Alexandra ( three wins) all of whom are now in League 1.

They lost Darren Jones ( 42 starts at centre back) and Anthony Straker ( 44 starts at left back) in the summer, which are big negatives and another reason I am biding my time, along with those couple of injuries. However, it is not all bad news, far from it,they managed to get right back and team leader on and off the pich, Ben Heard to sign a new contract and that was considered huge by Holdsworth, who claimed to have made Heard's life a misery hounding him to sign a new deal. Deano also managaged to bring in Anthony Tonkin ( Oxford), Olly Lancashire ( Walsall), Guy Branston ( Bradford) and Troy Brown ( Rotherham), four very experienced defenders, also in are holding midfield pair Craig Stanley ( Bristol Rovers) and Josh Payne ( Oxford) and striker Craig Reid ( Stevenage), what I like about these, is that all played 20 + starts last season and all, apart from Stanley and Branston at clubs which finished higher up the league ladder than Aldershot. They should definitely be an upgrade and I understand they have settled in well, but I would like to see them myself first and I am going to try and get some extended highlights from the Plymouth game at the weekend, or failing that, go and see them play at home to Exeter next Tuesday. Holdworth has also been enthusing about the number of quality youngsters he has at the club, all in all, it looks good for the Shots and it was great for them that Deano turned down the Crawley job which was offered . Anyway, more about these after I have seen them, either on Monday or Wednesday. However, if you wanted to waste a couple of euros on them at circa 41.0 to win, or 9.0 for promotion, I would not try to stop you !

Good Luck.

PALMEIRAS- FLAMENGO

Hosts already have a trophy in the bag having won the Copa do Brasil, but that will be little consolation if they do not haul themselves away from the drop zone and quickly, they have had a tough run of matches, with their last four starts coming against teams with an average league placing of 5 and they will welcome the visit of Flamengo, a nice mid table opponent, any respite will be brief however, as after today, Palmeiras play three of their next four on the road. They will clearly be targeting maximum points today and have probably got a little luck with this fixture, as, not only did the visitors take six points last week, which relieves any pressure on them, they have the small matter of the Clássico dos Milhões at the weekend, the huge derby game with big rivals Vasco and they will surely have one eye on that, the biggest game of the season for them. The visitors will be without Marcos Gonzalez in central defence  (11 starts), he is on international duty and has been influential in the last two wins and also holding midfielder Airton ( 9-1-0). They are missing a couple of other fringe players, one of whom would have probably been asked to cover for Gonzalez, so a bit of a problem area for Flamengo.

The home side are without Valdivia and Daniel Carvalho in midfield which are important losses, but Carvalho has tended to play a limited amount of game time ( averaging 50 minutes in his 11 outings) and Valdiva just 90 minutes once in only six league starts, so maybe are not as huge as they first appear. Young striker Maikon Leite is also out, but fellow front man Hernan Barcos is in good form with four goals in his last six outings. I really like Palmeiras here, they desperately need the points, Flamengo might well be distracted and I am sure no players will want to miss out on the weekend fixture and the only negative is that both Carvalho and Valdiva miss out, that is not enough to put me off, but I will scale down stakes slightly 1.25 units Palmeiras -0.5 ball 1.97 asian line.

If betting in "running" Flamengo have been vunerable either side of the break, with 48% of all goals conceded coming between the 31st and 60th minutes.

Good Luck.

Over the last 19 weeks I have previewed  over 420 events and put up 345 red type selections, stakes were  a total of 418.25 units and returns 523.49 units, a ROI of 125.17 % and a profit of 105.24  units, a 50 euro unit flat stake would have won 5,262 euros at an average of 277 euros per week . I have also put up "suggestions" in this sequence that have won at odds of 28-1 LINK  25-1 LINK , 9-1 LINK, 8-1 and many others, none of which are included in the profits shown above.

You can view five years of stats on the blog here LINK and on that page there are further links to more detailed country by county and sport by sport breakdowns, back in the day, most of my picks were on the blog, now just a very small sample.

There is a copy of today's email below, you can read an explanation of how the service works and also nine day's worth of recent emails in full on this LINK , including one complete week.

Cost to receive the email on a daily basis is ....

until September 19th 109 euros ( just over three euros per day)

until November 19th is 297 euros ( around 2.3 euros per email)

and until February 19th 2013 is 444 euros ( circa 1.8 euros per email)

Payment can be made via Moneybookers or Paypal , who also accept any bank debit or credit card, no account necessary and the address for both is gowi8@btinternet.com  , all you need to do is make payment, I will then send confirmation and you will be on the subscriber list immediately.

Good Luck.