Monday, August 06, 2012


 Those of you who received the Saturday notes ( #2) were not quite as fortunate, but still everything was pretty much on the money, four red type bets were put up, two won at 1.93 and 2.14, the other two lost, but the "over" should have been covered inside the first half and was very unlucky.  I also highlighted that Figueirense were unlikely to score early and they held out for 56 minutes and that Portuguesa were likely to score last and they scored their second goal in the 86th minute !

The new UK domestic season is nearly upon us, the summer has been fantastic from a sporting and betting perspective and hopefully this will be an English football season to remember, but in terms of the daily email, it is just part of the service, albeit an important part.

You can read an explanation of how the service works and also nine day's worth of recent emails in full on this
LINK , including one complete week.  This has never been available to view before and is worth a look, especially the explanation, which should answer any question you ever had about the service.

Below is a copy of today's notes, if you read that and take a look at the other copies on the link, you will get some idea as to how the email service has evolved, it is now a tremendous product, it was good before, but is now invaluable, if you bet on a regular basis.

If you would like to receive these notes on a daily basis, then please send me an email at ....   and I will forward details.


J-league and Olympic football in the first email and in this, the overnight action from Brazil and the MLS, next email will be with you at 10.00 UK time Sunday.



We spoke about Portuguesa ahead of their 3-1 home win over Nautico last Sunday ( see below), that was a hugely valuable win for them, the points took them up to 15th and out of the drop zone, albeit only by one point. Now they host Figueirense, who have dropped to bottom of the table, the visitors have not won in 13 starts in all competitions, or kept a cleansheet in ten, scoring goals has been a problem recently, but veteran striker Sebastian Abreu ,who recently signed for the club, got his breakthrough goal in a midweek Copa Sudamericana tie and the floodgates might open for him. However, that is the only positive, in a very dark period for Figueirense, who do look booked for a return to B, after just two seasons in the top flight and with the forward soon to be 36 years old, I feel like I am clutching at straws in any case. The visitors arrive without suspended duo Roni ( 11 starts and two goals from midfield) and right sided defender Pablo, Fig have conceded an average of 1.25 goals per game when he has started, 2.2 per start when he has not . Also missing is offensive midfielder Almir ( 7 starts), which along with Roni's absence leaves them short of options in this area. Hosts look a stronger team and in better shape at preent, both numbers and confidence wise, they should win and have to be my pick at circa 1.93, but if you are following this live, the visitors have conceded just once in the opening 15 minutes this season and not scored any, so, oddswise  it might pay to wait a little and very late goals might also be on the cards, Portuguesa have scored a very high 37% of their's in the last 15 minutes, Fig conceding seven goals in the same period.
PORTUGUESA- NAUTICO ( written 29/07)

This is a huge match for Portuguesa, they are in the drop zone currently, but the next three starts begining today are very win-able and they will welcome the lower quality of opponent , given that they have faced a host of top clubs recently and put in two solid defensive performances in the last week to draw with Flamengo and Corinthians. Now they have to go for the three points and meet an opponent they know well and one really struggling on the road, these two both came up from B last season, hosts as champions 17 points ahead of Nautico, they have won the last three h2h meetings here scoring ten goals, including four unanswered last year. The visitors are 1-0-5 away from home this campaign and have conceded 16 goals. They arrive without suspended defender Alessandro, who got a red card in midweek, which meant that his team mates also played over 30 minutes with ten men and suffered the humilation of conceding four at home to another struggling team. Nautico have lost two key defensive players Auremir and Derley in the transfer window and are really struggling at the back now, seven allowed in last two, 22 in last ten, We should see goals in this, last three h2h have all gone "over" 3.5, but when the dust has settled , it should result in a home win, with Portuguesa remembering their superiority from last season. 1.25 units Portuguesa -0.75 ball 2.04 asian line.


Hosts are another team in deep trouble, they have struggle since coming up in 2009 and they look set to return to the second tier this season. Defensively they have performed poorly, conceding at the rate of almost two per game and do not score enough to combat that. Today they are without three suspended players, central defender Gabriel, who has started in 7 of their last 8, holding midfielder Marino who has played 12 games ( they conceded three in the match he missed) and midfielder Bida ( 11 starts). Out injured is another central defender Renie, who has started the last four matches and he was brought in as cover from Vitoria to replace two long term injured centre backs ! So a big problem area for an already struggling backline. The goals have dried up for the visitors, after six in two starts at the begining of July, they only managed two in their next five, but they have tightened up at the back, just four conceded in seven and goals will surely not be quite so hard to come by this evening.  Botafogo remain without Lodeiro who is on his way back from London and will also be missing the suspended Victor Junior, the attacking midfielder has two goals and three assists in his 11 starts and looks a loss, but all of those contributions came in his first five outings this season and maybe a change was needed. They are not a team you would risk your house on at present, but look a class above the hosts, who have a poor squad anyway and now a weakened one, they look very suspect at the back and their goal threat limited, second top scorer is goalkeeper and penalty taker Marcio with two goals ! Botafogo level ball 2.14 asian line looks the only way to go with this match.



I REALLY wanted to back Real strongly in this one, we opposed Rapids last week and their performance in yet another loss ( their 14th of the season) was described as embarassing by their coach, who apologised to supporters afterwards.They have won just once in nine, scoring eight goals and kept just the single cleansheet in that sequence, adopting an ultra defensive policy has not really worked, because they do not have the personnel for that at present and are making some huge howlers at the back and once they concede. not not have a plan B, or firepower to turn things around. It is not like they have been unlucky, conceding against the run of play, as their keeper has made the most saves of any in the MLS. Edu, Conor Casey and Omar Cummings are an offensive trio with goals in them, but they have not been able to get an extended run in the team together and because Rapids are so short of options, when they are close to fitness, they have been rushed back, "forced" to play when not 100%, all three are subject to late tests again this evening .

Goals are not a problem for Real and they are a talented bunch, whom we discussed on July 7th ahead of their easy 3-0 win over Portland when I wrote ....
TIme for RSL to get back to winning ways. I have been impressed by them at times this season, in particular a fairly recent 3-0 win at Chivas, that is the only game that their opponent has lost in ten starts and it came shortly after a couple of really solid performances from the hosts, whom you may recall, I had put up as a potential big improver ahead of their LAG derby game in late May. That was the only blip for Chivas since then , but to be honest, RSL could have won by five, they had a "good" goal disallowed with the score still 0-0 and it was 85 minutes before the hosts had an attempt on goal. Real have not won in four since then, they blew a 2-0 lead at home to Galaxy in the first and I think that really knocked their confidence. the next game they lost again to San Jose, a match they should have won easily, having 19 attempts on goal,including two headed off the line and two completely open goals missed.

They steadied the ship with a 0-0 draw with Seattle in midweek, when they introduced defender Kwame Watson-Siriboe and winger Kenny Mansally, again, they had chances enough to have won with ease and the goals are going to start to flow again shortly. They have a clean sheet to console themselves with and the overall performance was very solid. Sounders admitted they were outplayed and with the new additions , who will have had a little more training with the squad and they should have Tony Beltran back tonight, RSL are only going to get stronger. They are a whole host of post match interviews below and I have highlighted some of the more inportant comments in red type.

Portland are very poor travellers and although buoyed by the win over San Jose, they will have travelled Portland- Colorado-Portland- Salt Lake this week and whilst not huge distances by MLS standards it is still hour after hour in the air and transit and very little training ground prep for this match.I like the home win and the 3.25 for them to score three or more, as I think that when they get one this time, the others will flow, but will take 1.25 units Real Salt Lake -1 ball 2.07 asian line. Real scored three in the reverse fixture back in March which they won by the odd goal in five, they had 17 attempts that day and were a little beat up and short of offensive options
going into the match.

They have recorded two more home wins since then, but have not performed on the road for a while, however, they can play away from home, witness that easy win at Chivas. Now for the negatives, they will be without key central defender Jamison Olave, which with Chris Schuler still unavailable, puts a lot of pressure on new signing  Kwame Watson-Siriboe in the middle of that backline and they played in Costa Rica on Tuesday night in the CONCACAF Champions League, that was quite a long flight, but significantly the two cities are in the same time zone, so the effects of travel are negated somewhat. They returned home Wednesday morning, trained as normal Thursday and made the relatively short trip to Colorado on Friday, so apart from the problems in central defence, they should be in reasonable shape. Incentive for a Real win is huge, the three points would take them top of the West for at least a week and give them the best record in the MLS, they are not the best team, but are certainly top 4, Rapids at present, definitely bottom 4 at best ! I think money is tight in Colorado and they have not upgraded the roster this year and are now paying the price. This is kind of against my normal practice as I rarely back teams who have had the tougher midweek schedule, but a big gap in class here IMO , so I will make an exception, but scale down my stake accordingly. Real have lost just twice in eight visits here and won the reverse fixture 2-0 just two weeks ago. Real Salt Lake level ball 2.23 asian line.


It is very hard not to see goals in this match up. Impact's last ten starts have averaged 3.5 per game and their supporters have witnessed a league high 76 goals this season, Philly have found both goals and confidence under "new" coach John Hackworth, with 14 in their last seven ( five wins), six of which have gone "over", including a 2-1 victory over Montreal in the reverse fixture three weeks ago. You can watch some eight minutes of highlights of that game on this LINK .

That will give you a flavour of how the game was played out, it was wide open and whilst two of the goals came late, there were plenty of chances and both teams were able to get in behind their opponents, almost at will.The woodwork saved one goal, several world class saves from both keepers a couple more, former Italian International Marco Di Vaio should have had two at least, he broke his MLS duck last week and will be up for this, I expect him to make a regular contribution to a free scoring team in the coming weeks. Union caused a lot of problems with long throws and crosses into the box, with Impact always seeming to leave at least two players unmarked. The addition of
Alessandro Nesta to their backline will doubtless help eventually, but we have talked many times about the pace of the game in the MLS and everyone takes time to adjust. This really should be fun to watch. 1.25 units "Over" 2.75 goals 1.96 asian line. Those late goals in the previous meeting were not a one off, both teams have conceded over 30% of all their many goals allowed, in the last 15 minutes of games.

Good Luck.

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