Tuesday, August 07, 2012


I thought this was a pretty uninteresting day, but found two matches to discuss in my daily notes, Mexico have already won 3-1 and BATE, who kick off shortly are trading at 1.82 , 29 clicks lower than the morning line and I sent my notes to subscribers YESTERDAY afternoon ( they can be traded out for a profit pre kick off !).
Imagine what an inspiring day might bring !

What an uninspiring day !

We do have a couple of Champions League fixtures and one involves BATE, whom we discussed recently ahead of their 0-0 draw with FK Vardar ( see below) and especially how poor they were suddenly playing domestically, home side Debreceni who made the group stage in 2009-10 were of some interest after drawing 1-1 in Borisov. But after watching the highlights, I am not so sure, offensively BATE looked significantly better and since the match in Skopje have signed Belarusian internationals Aleksandr Hleb and Raman Vasilyuk. Both played some part in the first leg, around 90 minutes between the hugely experienced pair and now the players who have been in London, will also return. So we can expect a big improvement in BATE in the next couple of weeks. Given that the hosts would snatch your arm off for 0-0, I can see some value in the away side at level ball at odds against. BATE level ball 2.11 asian line.

written July 25th
From a betting perspective, tonight's matches hold little interest, I understand that BATE are going through a tough time at present, they needed two injury time goals to turn the first leg around and take an advantage of any sort to Macedonia for the return leg with FK Vardar in Skopje. The visitors are far more experienced at this level and have twice made it through to the group stage, last season and in 2008-09, when they were a pretty good team. They have certainly regressed a little since then and by their normal standards are in freefall ! They lead their domestic league by three points with a game in hand, but their lead is normally double figures and they have collected just two points from their last three league starts. They will sorely miss midfielders Renan Bressan ( 15 starts-4 goals- 3 assists) and Dmitri Baga ( 15-5-4), plus defender Denis Polyakov ( 13 starts), all of whom are in action at the Olympics and word is that Vardar and their supporters are really up for this one. The match is a 33,000 sell out, the atmosphere will be white hot and odds look on the skinny side for the visitors, who do not need to win, but I know very little about the home side ( I did try to get hold of some highlights)  , so will have to pass. However, if this is a match you are interested in Bate do have their own YouTube channel and you can see a lot of highlights of recent games on there and yes, they are struggling atm !  LINK

In the Olympic Men's semi finals, Brazil look a little skinny on the asian handicaps, but they are full of goals, three in each game so far and sooner or later they are going to tighten up a bit at the back, so I have no wish to oppose them.The other match which sees Mexico face Japan ,is a lot more intriguing, the pair met pre tournament in Nottingham and Japan won a keenly fought match 2-1, although Mexico had much the better and more of the goalscoring chances. They also claimed to have been "embarassed" to lose to the Japanese, which in a friendly, gives you some idea of how they view themselves, it is nice to have confidence in your own worth/ability !

Japan have had a few extra hours recovery time from the quarters, but I feel Mexico have a far bigger advantage in that they have already played at Wembley and will feel more at home in the famous surroundings. They blew a 2-0 lead against Senegal, but will not face the same aerial threat that caused them problems on Saturday, against Japan. The Blue Samurai have yet to concede and tha was also true of Mexico before Senegal were in the last chance saloon, gambled and threw caution to the wind. Very close to call, I just about favour Mexico, but that has more to do with the fact that Japan are favoured by the odds makers, so, Mexico level ball 2.13, if you forced me to pick. The front men do not give you a moments peace and they harried and caused Japan a lot of problems and are prepared to shoot on sight, their pressing forced Senegal into two extra time errors which swung the match back their way and I prefer them. They definitely look to have more goals in them than the Japanese.

Good Luck.

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