Yesterday, I put up three red type bets, a big odds golf pick which was off the mark and two football bets at odds of 2.08 and 2.19 and they won 2-0 and 3-0 respectively. I also looked at the Women's 400 metres at the Olympics highlighting the chance of Christine Ohuruog, especially to get a medal, she was a circa 11.0 chance on the exchanges and finished a fast finishing second.
Hi,
The new UK domestic season is nearly upon us, the summer has been fantastic from a sporting and betting perspective and hopefully this will be an English football season to remember, but in terms of the daily email, it is just part of the service, albeit an important part.
You can read an explanation of how the service works and also nine day's worth of recent emails in full on this LINK , including one complete week. This has never been available to view before and is worth a look, especially the explanation, which should answer any question you ever had about the service.
Below is a copy of today's notes, if you read that and take a look at the other copies on the link, you will get some idea as to how the email service has evolved, it is now a tremendous product, it was good before, but is now invaluable, if you bet on a regular basis.
If you would like to receive these notes on a daily basis, then please send me an email at .... gowi8@btinternet.com and I will forward details.
The new UK domestic season is nearly upon us, the summer has been fantastic from a sporting and betting perspective and hopefully this will be an English football season to remember, but in terms of the daily email, it is just part of the service, albeit an important part.
You can read an explanation of how the service works and also nine day's worth of recent emails in full on this LINK , including one complete week. This has never been available to view before and is worth a look, especially the explanation, which should answer any question you ever had about the service.
Below is a copy of today's notes, if you read that and take a look at the other copies on the link, you will get some idea as to how the email service has evolved, it is now a tremendous product, it was good before, but is now invaluable, if you bet on a regular basis.
If you would like to receive these notes on a daily basis, then please send me an email at .... gowi8@btinternet.com and I will forward details.
SUNDAY AUGUST 5th
Let's start today with golf.....
WGC BRIDGESTONE INVITATIONAL:
LEADERBOARD
-11 FURYK
-10 OOSTERHUIZEN
-7 BRADLEY
-6 McILROY
-6 STRICKER
-5 VAN PELT
-5 ROSE
-5 SENDEN
-4 DONALD
-4 DUFNER
-3 McDOWELL
-3 DYSON
We will see VERY different conditions today, after three very dry
days, with the ball running long distances down the fairway, we have a
dire
weather forecast , tee times have been brought forward and we are
playing three balls off two tees. The PGA website explained it like this
....Tee times for Sunday’s final round of the World Golf
Championships-Bridgestone Invitational have been moved up due to
expected bad weather.
Players will be sent off two tees in threesomes beginning at 8 a.m.
Tee times will run from 8-10 a.m. on the front nine and 8-9:50 a.m. on
the back.
The weather forecast calls for an 80 percent chance of thunderstorms
which should arrive in the morning and continue to threaten into the
afternoon. Winds will be in the 15-25 mph-range with higher gusts.
According to the announcement released by the rules committee of the
International Federation of PGA Tours, “there is a likelihood of
suspensions throughout the day but we feel that we must make use of any
window of playable weather that arrives.”
Leader Jim Furyk
was, if not actually bemoaning all this, was clearly thriving in the
drier conditions, especially over the first two days, he has not had a
birdie in 16 holes and his putter went cold yesterday, as the weather
started to turn. This was in stark contrast to his closest persuer Louis Osterhuizen who
proved that he handles the wind at the Open Championship , he has not
dropped a stroke in 44 holes and said he hopes for as much wind as
possible on Sunday .I expect him to beat Furyk and as such, put him up as the most likely winner of this tournamnent.
Keegan Bradley
was in major contention here last year, but shot 41 for the back nine
and he would not be human if he did not carry negative memories of that
disaster into his final round today.
We saw how some of these handled
the wind on the final day of the Open Championship last month, most
Australians grow up playing in such conditions and John Senden shot
a 68 at Lytham, his driving has been poor this week, but it hard not to
see him going well today and he should make a move up the leaderboard
and book a big finish.
Luke Donald had a final round 69 at the Open, we spoke about him ahead of R4 when I wrote...
Donald has been unlucky this week, he prepared totally for windy
conditions and he has the ideal game to handle it, he has hit an
enormous amount of greens 14% more than the field average and would be
far higher up the leaderboard if he had had more luck with the putter.
He is the best R4 player on the planet, ranked #2 this year and #1 in
2011 on the US tour. I think he will have a big day today and could well
edge into the top 5 if the conditions toughen ( 9.0 + on the exchanges
to do so).
He
did edge into a share of 5th place there and thrived in the conditions,
his putter has basically been stone cold for several months, but he is
the best R4 player right now and also the strongest golfer in the world
"in contention". This year Luke has entered Sunday in the top ten three
times and improved or retained his position all three times, last year
on 7 from 8 occasions. So, you could argue that he has a 91% chance of
finishing 9th or better today. I think he will do significantly better,
with that recent preparation for windy conditions under his belt and
ability to keep the ball low. The putts are going to start dropping soon
and unlike Bradley he will come into today with hugely positive mental
memories, after shooting a final round 66 here last year, which took him
up into a share of second place.
How to back him, he is circa 3.35 to finish top five which is fine, but
liquidity is limited, he is in a three ball with his friend Justin Rose
( which will proably help both) and Senden, so I would really prefer
him to be facing someone else. Pinnacle have 1.80 for him to beat Dufner
just like he did in R4 at the Open ( by five strokes), again, that is
acceptable, with Dufner ranked 128th, 126 spots below the Englishman for
final round scoring on Tour in 2012. However, the markets without Furyk
and Osterhuizen have started to form this morning and Donald at circa
12.0 + looks tasty, he is only three strokes off third place, which is
basically what he needs to reach at the moment and he must go close, a
little each way ( 1/4 odds 123 places) in this market probably looks best .
BRAZIL SERIE A:
CORITIBA- FLUMINENSE
We spoke about the hosts on July 26th.....
Coritiba are very poor on the
road, just two points, so I guess I saw the best of them in a 2-2 draw
at Santos recently, they probably should have lost that, but showed
plenty of attacking intent and were very dangerous on the break. They
twice came from behind that night and fought back from two down to claim
a share of the spoils at Bahia over the weekend, those are their two
road points, at least we know they will battle if falling behind. I do
feel they were distracted by they run to the final of the Copa do Brasil
and admit to being a little interested in them tonight, they have three
players back from suspension which means that they can field their
first choice central defensive partnership of Emerson and Fabio Pereira,
Coritibia have avoided defeat in three of the four games the pair have
played together
this
season.
Nautico Recife have
a decent home record, but their need is not as great as the visitors,
who sit just outside the bottom and who face three of the top 4 in their
next three starts and then face Copa champions Corinthians, so this is
as easy as it is going to get for them for a while. Plus
point is that Coritiba do have goals in them, scoring in their last ten
league games ( 17 in total), two or more in six of those. If the centre
backs can steady them at the rear, they should be capable of getting a
point or more here +0.25 ball ( circa 2.0) on the asian markets would
be my
pick, they are not a team to trust completely,but I one I expect to
improve a little, I also saw 2.625 for them to score two or more around
which
was also tempting.
They won that 4-3 and now come
into this game unbeaten in four in the league, although they did lose
1-0 at Gremio in the Copa Sudamericana in midweek, this is a team with
goals in them , but they are incapable of keeping a clean sheet (
without one in 11) and they must be running a little on empty now, with
this their 11th start in just 36 days. The injuries are starting to pile
up and tonight they will be without eight players in total, but most
are fringe members of the squad, or have featured little this year,
biggest losses will be defensive midfielder Sergio Manoel who has
started nine matches, midfielder Rafinfa who has one goal and three
assists from four outings and Anderson Aquiniho who doesn't see much
game time, but has two goals from off the bench.
We talked about Fluminense on July 22nd , ahead of their match at Ponte Preta....
Fluminense are unbeaten this season
with a 6-4-0 record and currently sit in third place, the top two both
won last night and opened at a gap at the head of affairs so the
visitors will be very motivated to claim the three points tonight to
stay in touch, especially ahead of a tough trip to fourth placed Gremio (
who have already won four at home) in midweek. Flu have scored in all
five road games and have the meanest defence in Brazil. Upfront, Fred
has been in stunning form, with five goals and four assists from just
five starts and he had a hand in all four goals in the 4-0 win over
Bahia in midweek and he has developed a very productive partnership and
understanding with evergreen Deco, who has a goal and five assists in
six starts. Their only absentees are defensive midfielders Diguinho and
Edwin Valencia, neither has played much at all
domestically this season, just 50 minutes for Valencia, so hard to see
them as big losses any more and Diguinho is said to be close to a return
in any case. Fluminense should not go home empty handed and they are
my pick. 1.25 units Fluminense -0.25 ball 2.02 asian line.
They won that 2-1, but have only
take one point from two matches since, but that in itself gives them an
advantage, with this just their seventh start since the beginning of
July, four matches fewer than their host. They have three of their next
four starts at home, but still desperately need three points today, to
stay in touch with the top two, whom they currently trail by four +
points. They will be witout midfielders Diguinho and Edwin Valencia ,
but they have only played one match and 50 minutes in the league
respectively this season, a much bigger loss is central defender
Anderson, he is amongst the first names on the team sheet and Flu have
lost just two of their last 19 when he has started.
Leonardo has made a solid start
for Coritiba since returning from China, with three goals in as many
starts, he will be the main focus of their attack, but has performed
below par against Flu in the past. Their lengthy injury list might not
include a lot of regular starters, but it does limit options ,
especially with the games coming so thick and fast and with a big run in
the cup, the home side have played a huge number of games this
camapign. Defensively they look weak and I expect the visitors to edge
this one. Fluminense level ball 2.08 asian line.
NAUTICO RECIFE- SANTOS
These two both sit one point
outside the drop zone, the bottom three have already played and lost
this weekend, which will them a boost and the fourth, Bahia, face a very
difficult trip to highflying Gremio tonight, so both will surely see
this as a real opportunity to put some distance between themselves and
the clubs below them, to open up some breathing space. However, I would
argue that this is far more important to Nautico, who face tough road
trips to Internacional and Flamengo in the next seven days. They will be
without suspended versatile offensive Rhayner today, he has contribued
six assists in his 12 starts.
Suspended for Santos are holding
midfielder Adriano ( 18 Copa and A starts) and his fellow midfielder
Arouca ( 21 starts) , in the three games the pair have both missed
Santos have not scored a single goal.
Superstars Neymar and Ganso remain at the Olympics and
also out injured is key central defender Edu Dracena, Santos are
unbeaten in his six starts, with three cleansheets, they have lost four (
just one win) in the seven matches he has sat out .
The visitors are kind of biding time until after the Olympics, they got a narrow home win last week against Ponte Preta which eased the pressure on them, after failing to score in their previous four, albeit all starts against top teams. They have two home games in the next week and will have their eye on those IMO. I favour the hosts today Nautico Recife -0.5 ball 2.19 asian line.
WOMEN'S 400 METRES FINAL
Sanya Richards-Ross has been made odds on favourite, but has tended to underperform in major finals.
She was fastest in qualifying for
the 2008 final in Beijing, but went off too quickly and was passed by
Christine Ohuruogu and Shricka Williams in the home straight. It was a
similar story in the 2005 World Championships and she loves to set up
these finals for a strong finisher.
SRR has dominated the event this
year, but it was a similar story in 2008 and her problems are between
the ears and not in the legs. She went off like lightning in her semi
final and cruised into a lead and then she said she relaxed and eased
down, Ohuruogu closed her down at the line.
Having re-watched the race several times, I am not so sure how much SRR
did ease down ( a bit, but probably not as much as it appeared), once
again she had gone probably too fast early. The British girl ran her own
race as she always does and looked very comfortable in running 50.22,
her fastest time of the year and she was not blowing heavily after the
race.
She is a proven big race performer, who won gold in Beijing and in
Osaka in 2007, she is fantastic at bringing her best to the biggest
meets and looks to have timed things really well again, extra incentive
if needed was that she grew up just a mile from the Olympic stadium.
Richards-Ross' experience four years ago left her
crying under the grandstands after she had come into those Olympics as
the clear favorite.
"Four years thinking about it"
kind of says it all , mentally she is not the strongest and has tried to
get a lot of help in this area, but when the gun goes, I still think
she is going to blast off and it is a fine line between setting a good
pace and going too fast, the problem is that Antonina Krivoshapka inside
of SRR and Amantle Montsho in the lane outside also like to start
quickly and I could easily see a bit of panic setting in here. McCorory
likewise on the wide outside and they will all be able to see her and
that might further cause these three, definitely the US and Russian
runners to overly force the issue.
I could see this race being set up
for a finisher and that is Ohuruogu. The Russian will blast out,
Montsho at least for 200 and SRR will not want to be left behind, these
three could be racing for the first 200, whilst the British athlete will
be setting herself up for the last 200. The outside lanes looked quite
quick and lane 8 might be a really good draw for her. She is circa 9.0-11.5 to win,
which I think is too big and around 1.89 albeit for small liquidity on
the exchanges to medal, which given how this might play out is huge IMO. Lane draw below.
| 2 | 2213 | Novlene Williams-Mills |  JAM |
49.78 | 49.63 |
| 3 | 2209 | Rosemarie Whyte | JAM |
50.62 | 49.84 |
| 4 | 3321 | Deedee Trotter |  USA |
49.87 | 49.64 |
| 5 | 2873 | Antonina Krivoshapka |  RUS |
49.16 | 49.16 |
| 6 | 3313 | Sanya Richards-Ross | USA |
49.28 | 48.70 |
| 7 | 1214 | Amantle Montsho |  BOT |
49.54 | 49.54 |
| 8 | 1866 | Christine Ohuruogu |  GBR |
50.22 | 49.61 |
| 9 | 3307 | Francena McCorory | USA |
50.06 | 50.06 |
Good Luck.
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