Monday, August 06, 2012


 Yesterday, I put up three red type bets, a big odds golf pick which was off the mark and two football bets at odds of  2.08 and 2.19 and they won 2-0 and 3-0 respectively. I also looked at the Women's 400 metres at the Olympics highlighting the chance of Christine Ohuruog, especially to get a medal, she was a circa 11.0 chance on the exchanges and finished a fast finishing second.

The new UK domestic season is nearly upon us, the summer has been fantastic from a sporting and betting perspective and hopefully this will be an English football season to remember, but in terms of the daily email, it is just part of the service, albeit an important part.

You can read an explanation of how the service works and also nine day's worth of recent emails in full on this
LINK , including one complete week.  This has never been available to view before and is worth a look, especially the explanation, which should answer any question you ever had about the service.

Below is a copy of today's notes, if you read that and take a look at the other copies on the link, you will get some idea as to how the email service has evolved, it is now a tremendous product, it was good before, but is now invaluable, if you bet on a regular basis.

If you would like to receive these notes on a daily basis, then please send me an email at ....   and I will forward details.


Let's start today with golf.....




We will see VERY different conditions today, after three very dry days, with the ball running long distances down the fairway, we have a dire weather forecast , tee times have been brought forward and we are playing three balls off two tees. The PGA website explained it like this ....Tee times for Sunday’s final round of the World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational have been moved up due to expected bad weather.
Players will be sent off two tees in threesomes beginning at 8 a.m.  Tee times will run from 8-10 a.m. on the front nine and 8-9:50 a.m. on the back.
The weather forecast calls for an 80 percent chance of thunderstorms which should arrive in the morning and continue to threaten into the afternoon. Winds will be in the 15-25 mph-range with higher gusts.
According to the announcement released by the rules committee of the International Federation of PGA Tours, “there is a likelihood of suspensions throughout the day but we feel that we must make use of any window of playable weather that arrives.”

Leader Jim Furyk was, if not actually bemoaning all this, was clearly thriving in the drier conditions, especially over the first two days, he has not had a birdie in 16 holes and his putter went cold yesterday, as the weather started to turn. This was in stark contrast to his closest persuer Louis Osterhuizen who proved that he handles the wind at the Open Championship , he has not dropped a stroke in 44 holes and said he hopes for as much wind as possible on Sunday .I expect him to beat Furyk and as such, put him up as the most likely winner of this tournamnent.

Keegan Bradley was in major contention here last year, but shot 41 for the back nine and he would not be human if he did not carry negative memories of that disaster into his final round today.

We saw how some of these handled the wind on the final day of the Open Championship last month, most Australians grow up playing in such conditions and John Senden shot a 68 at Lytham, his driving has been poor this week, but it hard not to see him going well today and he should make a move up the leaderboard and book a  big finish.

Luke Donald had a final round 69 at the Open, we spoke about him ahead of R4 when I wrote...

Donald has been unlucky this week, he prepared totally for windy conditions and he has the ideal game to handle it, he has hit an enormous amount of greens 14% more than the field average and would be far higher up the leaderboard if he had had more luck with the putter. He is the best R4 player on the planet, ranked #2 this year and #1 in 2011 on the US tour. I think he will have a big day today and could well edge into the top 5 if the conditions toughen ( 9.0 + on the exchanges to do so).

He did edge into a share of 5th place there and thrived in the conditions, his putter has basically been stone cold for several months, but he is the best R4 player right now and also the strongest golfer in the world "in contention". This year Luke has entered Sunday in the top ten three times and improved or retained his position all three times, last year on 7 from 8 occasions. So, you could argue that he has a 91% chance of finishing 9th or better today. I think he will do significantly better, with that recent preparation for windy conditions under his belt and ability to keep the ball low. The putts are going to start dropping soon and unlike Bradley he will come into today with hugely positive mental memories, after shooting a final round 66 here last year, which took him up into a share of second place. How to back him, he is circa 3.35 to finish top five which is fine, but liquidity is limited, he is in a three ball with his friend Justin Rose ( which will proably help both) and Senden, so I would really prefer him to be facing someone else. Pinnacle have 1.80 for him to beat Dufner just like he did in R4 at the Open ( by five strokes), again, that is acceptable, with Dufner ranked 128th, 126 spots below the Englishman for final round scoring on Tour in 2012. However, the markets without Furyk and Osterhuizen have started to form this morning and Donald at circa 12.0 + looks tasty, he is only three strokes off third place, which is basically what he needs to reach at the moment and he must go close, a little each way ( 1/4 odds 123 places)  in this market probably looks best .



We spoke about the hosts on July 26th.....

Coritiba are very poor on the road, just two points, so I guess I saw the best of them in a 2-2 draw at Santos recently, they probably should have lost that, but showed plenty of attacking intent and were very dangerous on the break. They twice came from behind that night and fought back from two down to claim a share of the spoils at Bahia over the weekend, those are their two road points, at least we know they will battle if falling behind. I do feel they were distracted by they run to the final of the Copa do Brasil and admit to being a little interested in them tonight, they have three players back from suspension which means that they can field their first choice central defensive partnership of Emerson and Fabio Pereira, Coritibia have avoided defeat in three of the four games the pair have played together this season.

Nautico Recife have a decent home record, but their need is not as great as the visitors, who sit just outside the bottom and who face three of the top 4 in their next three starts and then face Copa champions Corinthians, so this is as  easy as it is going to get for them for a while. Plus point is that Coritiba do have goals in them, scoring in their last ten league games ( 17 in total), two or more in six of those. If the centre backs can steady them at the rear, they should be capable of getting a point or more here  +0.25 ball ( circa 2.0) on the asian markets would be my pick, they are not a team to trust completely,but I one I expect to improve a little, I also saw 2.625 for them to score two or more around which was also tempting.

They won that 4-3 and now come into this game unbeaten in four in the league, although they did lose 1-0 at Gremio in the Copa Sudamericana in midweek, this is a team with goals in them , but they are incapable of keeping a clean sheet ( without one in 11) and they must be running a little on empty now, with this their 11th start in just 36 days. The injuries are starting to pile up and tonight they will be without eight players in total, but most are fringe members of the squad, or have featured little this year, biggest losses will be defensive midfielder Sergio Manoel who has started nine matches, midfielder Rafinfa who has one goal and three assists from four outings and Anderson Aquiniho who doesn't see much game time, but has two goals from off the bench.

We talked about Fluminense on July 22nd , ahead of their match at Ponte Preta....

Fluminense are unbeaten this season with a 6-4-0 record and currently sit in third place, the top two both won last night and opened at a gap at the head of affairs so the visitors will be very motivated to claim the three points tonight to stay in touch, especially ahead of a tough trip to fourth placed Gremio ( who have already won four at home) in midweek. Flu have scored in all five road games and have the meanest defence in Brazil. Upfront, Fred has been in stunning form, with five goals and four assists from just five starts and he had a hand in all four goals in the 4-0 win over Bahia in midweek and he has developed a very productive partnership and understanding with evergreen Deco, who has a goal and five assists in six starts. Their only absentees are defensive midfielders Diguinho and Edwin Valencia, neither has played much at all domestically this season, just 50 minutes for Valencia, so hard to see them as big losses any more and Diguinho is said to be close to a return in any case.  Fluminense should not go home empty handed and they are my pick. 1.25 units Fluminense -0.25 ball 2.02 asian line.

They won that 2-1, but have only take one point from two matches since, but that in itself gives them an advantage, with this just their seventh start since the beginning of July, four matches fewer than their host. They have three of their next four starts at home, but still desperately need three points today, to stay in touch with the top two, whom they currently trail by four + points. They will be witout midfielders Diguinho and Edwin Valencia , but they have only played one match and 50 minutes in the league respectively this season, a much bigger loss is central defender Anderson, he is amongst the first names on the team sheet and Flu have lost just two of their last 19 when he has started.

Leonardo has made a solid start for Coritiba since returning from China, with three goals in as many starts, he will be the main focus of their attack, but has performed below par against Flu in the past. Their lengthy injury list might not include a lot of regular starters, but it does limit options , especially with the games coming so thick and fast and with a big run in the cup, the home side have played a huge number of games this camapign. Defensively they look weak and I expect the visitors to edge this one. Fluminense level ball 2.08 asian line.


These two both sit one point outside the drop zone, the bottom three have already played and lost this weekend, which will them a boost and the fourth, Bahia, face a very difficult trip to highflying Gremio tonight, so both will surely see this as a real opportunity to put some distance between themselves and the clubs below them, to open up some breathing space. However, I would argue that this is far more important to Nautico, who face tough road trips to Internacional and Flamengo in the next seven days. They will be without suspended versatile offensive Rhayner today, he has contribued six assists in his 12 starts.

Suspended for Santos are holding midfielder Adriano ( 18 Copa and A starts) and his fellow midfielder Arouca ( 21 starts) , in the three games the pair have both missed Santos have not scored a single goal.

Superstars Neymar and Ganso remain at the Olympics and also out injured is key central defender Edu Dracena, Santos are unbeaten in his six starts, with three cleansheets, they have lost four ( just one win) in the seven matches he has sat out .

The visitors are kind of biding time until after the Olympics, they got a narrow home win last week against Ponte Preta which eased the pressure on them, after failing to score in their previous four, albeit all starts against top teams. They have two home games in the next week and will have their eye on those IMO. I favour the hosts today Nautico Recife -0.5 ball 2.19 asian line.


Sanya Richards-Ross has been made odds on favourite, but has tended to underperform in major finals.

She was fastest in qualifying for the 2008 final in Beijing, but went off too quickly and was passed by Christine Ohuruogu and Shricka Williams in the home straight. It was a similar story in the 2005 World Championships and she loves to set up these finals for a strong finisher.

SRR has dominated the event this year, but it was a similar story in 2008 and her problems are between the ears and not in the legs. She went off like lightning in her semi final and cruised into a lead and then she said she relaxed and eased down, Ohuruogu closed her down at the line. Having re-watched the race several times, I am not so sure how much SRR did ease down ( a bit, but probably not as much as it appeared), once again she had gone probably too fast early. The British girl ran her own race as she always does and looked very comfortable in running 50.22, her fastest time of the year and she was not blowing heavily after the race. She is a proven big race performer, who won gold in Beijing and in Osaka in 2007, she is fantastic at bringing her best to the biggest meets and looks to have timed things really well again, extra incentive if needed was that she grew up just a mile from the Olympic stadium.

Richards-Ross said this yesterday ...."I think what I did four years ago incorrectly was I didn't stay in my lane and run my race," she said. "I've had four years to think about it, and I'm not going to make that same mistake tomorrow."
Richards-Ross' experience four years ago left her crying under the grandstands after she had come into those Olympics as the clear  favorite.

"Four years thinking about it" kind of says it all , mentally she is not the strongest and has tried to get a lot of help in this area, but when the gun goes, I still think she is going to blast off and it is a fine line between setting a good pace and going too fast, the problem is that Antonina Krivoshapka inside of SRR and Amantle Montsho in the lane outside also like to start quickly and I could easily see a bit of panic setting in here. McCorory likewise on the wide outside and they will all be able to see her and that might further cause these three, definitely the US and Russian runners to overly force the issue.

I could see this race being set up for a finisher and that is Ohuruogu. The Russian will blast out, Montsho at least for 200 and SRR will not want to be left behind, these three could be racing for the first 200, whilst the British athlete will be setting herself up for the last 200. The outside lanes looked quite quick and lane 8 might be a really good draw for her. She is circa 9.0-11.5 to win, which I think is too big and around 1.89 albeit for small liquidity on the exchanges to medal, which given how this might play out is huge IMO. Lane draw below.

2 2213 Novlene Williams-Mills JAM 49.78 49.63
3 2209 Rosemarie Whyte JAM 50.62 49.84
4 3321 Deedee Trotter USA 49.87 49.64
5 2873 Antonina Krivoshapka RUS 49.16 49.16
6 3313 Sanya Richards-Ross USA 49.28 48.70
7 1214 Amantle Montsho BOT 49.54 49.54
8 1866 Christine Ohuruogu GBR 50.22 49.61
9 3307 Francena McCorory USA 50.06 50.06

Good Luck.

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