NBA .......... SAN ANTONIO SPURS@ DENVER NUGGETS

You can read thousand of column inches about the play off matches, everything you may wish to know, including what they had for breakfast, is probably covered somewhere.

So I am only going to discuss the game briefly. My opinion is that Denver, do not really BELIEVE, that they can win this game. So much sport is played between the ears and the Spurs performance and win in Game 3, not only gave them a 2-1 lead in the series, but also a huge psychological edge.

This is now the 4th year running that the Nuggets have gone 2-1 down in the first round play-off and on each occasion, they have gone on to lose games 4 and 5.

How many times do you think this has gone through the mind, of every single player in the last 48 hours ?

Home advantage seems minimal, in recent years Denver are 28% at home post season, San Antonio, over 57% on the road.

The visitors are my confident choice.

4.5 points San Antonio to beat Denver 1.80 general quote. won 96-89 + 3.6 pts

Good Luck.

SPL ........ ST MIRREN - DUNFERMLINE

With just 3 rounds left in the SPL after tonight, this match is pretty much a relegation decider.

The visitors arrive in good form, with just one defeat in 7 starts and a Scottish Cup final to look forward to, but trail the hosts by 4 points. They are pretty much drinking in the last chance saloon and only a win will give them a realistic chance of survival.

Saints will probably be happy with a point under the circumstances and we can expect a VERY cautious opening, two of their earlier meetings this season ended 0-0 and the half time stalemate looks a very good option. 0-0 half-time

However, I will settle for the away team, with the small asian handicap start, that way we are covering results that both teams have probably targeted. The Pars looking for a win and the hosts looking to stifle the game.

4 points Dunfermline +1/4 ball asian line 1.74 . won 1-0 +2.96 pts

Good Luck.

READING - NEWCASTLE UNITED .... LIVE ON SKY TV

We might see the return of Michael Owen this evening, which will give the game added interest,but surely he will be adopting a safety first approach, with his only target, getting fit for next season.

His team mates seem to be feeling the effects of a very long campaign. With so many injuries and an extended run in Europe, the "fit" have been asked to carry a heavy load and it has clearly taken it's toll. They are now without a win in 6 and lost 11 matches on the road.

At present only the visit of one of the big 4 to St Jame's Park, seems to motivate them. No Duff or Given tonight and surely the summer break, cannot come quickly enough.

Reading, guided by the admirable Steve Coppell, can move into a UEFA Cup qualification spot with a victory and with Watford the next visitors to the Madejski Stadium, that could be clinched this weekend.

They have some long term injuries of their own and will also be without the suspended Leroy Lita, but two consecutive wins have rekindled their enthusiasm and Kevin Doyle will be looking to add to his tally of 12 goals.

Few teams outside the big 4 have won here and 10 home wins in their first season, is a fine achievement.

Look out for Nicky Shorey, the left back has played in all four divisions, which happens rarely nowadays and is having a fine season, only Steve McClaren has failed to notice. Home win.

5 points Reading -1/4 ball asian line 1.74. won 1-0 +3.7 points

Good Luck.

MONDAY AFTERNOON .........

Late start today, sorry about that.

I have three selections for tonight's action, two football bets and one for the NBA.

Still trying to work out exactly how I let the Warriors go unbacked last night, this looks likely to go down as the biggest upset in NBA history, but the truth is, they have dominated the series so far and own the Mavericks.

Back in an hour or so with the football, just before 18.00 cet.

Check back.

WEEK 56 Results 29 bets 16 wins (55.17%) profit +1.195 pts ROI + 0.866 % (138)

LIGUE 1 ... FC GIRONDINS de BORDEAUX - LENS

Bordeaux have served us well recently and I see no reason to desert them now.

Their well timed run has taken them into the top 3 and maximum points this evening, will propel them into second place, a position they are defending, having finished runners-up, last season.

The hosts are unbeaten in 8 starts and have kept a clean sheet in 6 of them, including the last 4.

Lens have only one win in 7, are short of defensive options today and look a little jaded, after what has been, a very long season.

Les Girondins look the clear second best team in Ligue 1 at present and can prove it this evening.

5.5 points Bordeaux -1/4 ball asian line 1.81. won 1-0 + 4.455 pts

Good Luck.

BUNDESLIGA .... ARMINIA BIELEFELD - WERDER BREMEN

Hardly original, but a win will take Bremen to the top of the Bundesliga and there can be no bigger incentive.

I am not worried about the 3-0 loss at Espanol. they had won the previous 4, scoring 12 goals and I always saw this as a priority for them.

For my money, they would be worthy winners of the title and are the league's best team. This is a side that is going to break up in the Summer, with many of the bigger name player's, already in negotiation elsewhere. A Championship would be a fitting farewell.

Bielefeld will not make things easy, they are fighting to stay in the top flight, but at least have the knowledge that, following yesterday's results, they will remain outside the drop zone, even with a loss this afternoon.

The hosts have already lost at home, to the other two title challengers this season and I fancy they will get the hat trick today.Away win.

5 points Werder Bremen -1/2 ball 1.73 asian line. lost 3-2 -5 pts

Good Luck.

LA LIGA .... GETAFE - REAL SOCIEDAD

The visitors looked to be fighting a lost cause against relegation, a few weeks ago, but 3 wins in 4 starts have seen them really close the gap and the "great escape" is at least, now a possibility.

They host Barcelona next week and can expect few favours from them, so will be desperate for a result today.

Getafe's season is fizzling out and they seem out of the race for a European spot and unlikely to turn a 5-2 first leg loss to Barce around in the Copa del Rey, semi-final. They can claim only one win in 11 starts and look to have one eye on their summer vacation.

4.5 points Sociedad +1/2 ball 1.76 asian line. lost 1-0 -4.5 pts

Back very shortly.

USPGA GOLF .......... EDS BYRON NELSON CLASSIC

One round to go and the leaderboard looks like this .....

-10 Luke Donald

- 9 Scott Veplank

-8 Michael Allen

-6 Ian Poulter

-5 a group of 5 players including Singh and Mickelson

In one of my very early posts, I discussed the importance of following players in the final round, with a proven record in the pressure cooker atmosphere, that the back 9 holes can produce. You can read that article here......

http://ubet2win.blogspot.com/2006/05/liesdamn-lies-and-statistics.html

With that in mind, looking at the top 4 on the leaderboard here, makes very interesting reading.

Donald is 24th for final round scoring in 2007, was 10th last year, with a 2 year average of 70.19. Verplank 122nd, 88th and 71.67. Allen 173rd, 113th and 72.19. Poulter 36th , 49th and 70.82.

Therefore we can reasonable expect Donald to better Verplank's score by 1.5 strokes and Allen by a full two shots. Infact, he is 4 strokes per round better than Allen, in 2007 alone.

The other Englishman, Ian Poulter matches up better, trailing only by a little over half a shot per round, but he has 4 strokes to make up anyway.

Given the fact that he is already coming in with a lead and with his nearest competitors clearly struggling when in contention, we can back Donald with a little confidence. Blog sponsors Sunderlands have clearly done their homework and are 1.83 for him to win, but there is plenty on Betfair at a big looking 2.12 and I feel we have to get involved.

4.5 points Donald to win outright 2.12 Betfair. lost by one stroke -4.5 pts

Good Luck.

2.BUNDESLIGA .... KARLSRUHER - UNTERHACHING

The hosts are coasting into the Bundesliga and by virtue of their supior goal difference, are all but promoted.

One point will make it 100% confirmed, but they do not really need it, the visitors certainly do and that would probably be enough to take them out of the relegation zone, come late afternoon.

They arrive very motivated and on the back of two improved defensive performances.

Unterhaching have a tough run in, with 3 of the 4 remaining matches on the road, in some strange way, this game at the runaway leaders, can be seen as one of the better opportunities to collect some much needed points.

Feel that both would not be too upset with a point apiece and I have to take the visitors, with the one goal asian handicap start.

The hosts have kept only two clean sheets in 13 matches in 2007 and if conceding today, will struggle to cover the handicap, against an opponent fighting for their very survival.

5 points Unterhaching +1 ball asian line 1.87. lost 1-0 void

Good Luck.

I do not like to offer bets without explanation .............

..... but have little choice today, as always, it is up to you whether or not you get involved.

Suffice to say, I would not put anything online, without having good, solid reasons.

In Serie A, Catania travel to Udinese and really need a result, after a very promising start to their campaign, things have gone from bad to worse and they sit just 3 points above the drop zone. The next two matches, Ascoli are up next, will define their season, as they face a very tough run in.

I expect them to get a result of some sort today and am laying the hosts.

4 points Udinese - Catania draw 2.86 Exchanges.

1.5 points Catania -1/2 ball 5.40 Exchanges. won 1-0 +2.6 pts

Good Luck.

HEERENVEEN - FEYENOORD

Going to put three posts online in quick succession, they will all be fairly brief, one, the Serie A selection, just a few lines.

These two are competing for the final Champions League play-off spot, still up for grabs. The visitors currently lead by one point, but cannot settle for a draw, as they would then risk being passed by either Roda or Groningen, who are immediately behind and both are at home today.

Obviously a win would take either in, so we can expect both to really go for it, they shared 7 goals in the reverse fixture and there are sure to be goals today. However, no "over" bet for me here, I like the hosts.

Heerenveen have a fully fit squad to choose from and arrive in good form, having only lost to champions elect AZ in their last 7 starts.

Feyenoord have really gone off the rails, they have only one win in 8 and have conceded 3 or more 6 times, in 2007 alone. They have 6 long term injuries and these will probably be joined by 2-3 others.

Missing out on the play-offs seemed unthinkable, just a few weeks ago and now, is a very realistic prospect and I feel for them to suddenly turn things around, is unlikely, to be honest, a team with a -6 goal difference, should not even be in contention.

Feyenoord have not won at the Abe Lenstra Stadion this Millenium and I do not feel that is about to change.

5 points Heerenveen -1/2 ball 2.15 general quote. won 5-1 + 5.75 pts

Good Luck.

SUNDAY MORNING ...........

Very excited by the sport today, think that I have some very strong selections on the football in particular, make sure that you keep in touch.

Going to touch on the USPGA Golf briefly too and maybe even the NBA play-offs.

My wife also wants me to mow the lawn , but there is only so much a guy can do !

Back shortly.

LA LIGA ..... VALENCIA - RECREATIVO

Valencia will be keen to get back into the top 4 as soon as possible and with a trip to Deportivo next week, will want the points this evening.

They are 12-1-2 at home and know that they have to qualify for the Champions League, or a season which promised so much, will be seen as a disaster.

The visitors have over achieved and are still looking for a european spot of their own, when many were tipping them for relegation.

The hosts are out for revenge, having lost the reverse fixture 2-0, a very talented side, they have impressed me as much, if not more than, any other team in La Liga.

It looks like they are resigned to losing David Villa and maybe one or two others, in the summer, it will be easier to attract replacements, with the carrott of CL football and all their energies are now targeted on qualification. Carlos Marchena returns from suspension and the Spanish international will help tighten up the defence, that looked shaky at times, in the defeat at Real Madrid last week.

Despite that loss, they created plenty of chances, 15 to Real's 10 and this is a side that always looks to have goals in them. Maybe the opoortunities will be converted this evening.

5 points Valencia -3/4 ball 1.74 asian line. won 2-0 + 3.7 pts

Good Luck.

A FEW THOUGHTS ...........

I have one more bet for tonight's late European action, which will be online later this afternoon.

There were 3 other bets, that were late "eliminations" for me, so they are almost sure winners !

They might be interesting to follow ...... without backing.

Leicester +1/4 ball @ Barnsley won 1-0

Swansea +1/4 ball @ Carlisle won 2-1

Boston -3/4 ball home to Torquay drew 1-1

The Barnsley game looks very drawish anyway and the hosts are carrying knocks to several key players. City taking almost 5,000 fans.

Swansea and Carlisle both looking for the win to take them into the play-off zone. Just got the feeling that defeat to Bristol City last week, in a game they dominated early and ended a long winning run, might have knocked the hosts for six. They are also handicapped by the loss of on loan striker Danny Graham, who has returned to his parent club, after scoring in 5 of their last 6 games. Swansea have refound a little "steel" under their new boss.

Boston, despite all their problems, money, injuries, simply have to find a way to win and are helped by the return of top scorer Drewe Broughton.

Back later.

DIVISION 2 ....... ACCRINGTON STANLEY - MACCLESFIELD TOWN

Massive game at the foot of Division 2, both sit two points clear of Boston, who currently occupy the final relegation spot and who are at home, to already doomed Torquay this afternoon.

Both would like to win, neither can afford to lose, have a feeling that the points might be shared but if forced to choose, would opt for the visitors.

They are the bigger, more ambitious club and looked to be on their way to a mid table finish, after recovering from a dismal start, however, a few poor results, not helped by a tough schedule has seen them slip back into trouble.

Macclesfield have laid on free coach travel to the game and a large number of away supporters are expected to make the short journey.

Accrington have won their last 4 at home and are fighting for their livelyhood, but Town have more potential and at times, have looked far too good to be in anything like this predicament.

The reverse fixture provided plenty of twists and turns eventually ending 3-3, we could be in for a similarly exciting match today.

4 points Macclesfield +1/4 ball 2.16 asian line. lost 3-2 - 4 pts

Back shortly.

DIVISION 2 .......... BRISTOL ROVERS - SWINDON TOWN

Two more bets for this afternoon's action and both come from Division 2 of the Football league.

Regular readers will know that I am quite a fan of Rovers, if they do not manage promotion this season, they will be on my short list for next.

This is a West Country derby and there is intense rivalry between all clubs in the area, it is hard to argue that any favours will be done, in front of a passionate 10,000 crowd. However, Town need only a point to secure promotion and with a superior goal difference, maybe even two narrow losses in their remaining fixtures, could see them safely home.

If word come through that MK Dons are losing, in a tricky looking trip to Wycombe, both sets of supporters could be celebrating, come 18.00 cet.

The hosts are just one point outside the play-off places and are on an unbeaten run of 6 matches with just one goal conceded. Town are on an almost identical run, the only difference is that they have conceded twice.

I expect a very cautious start and both might even be happy to go in level at the break and review the situation, depending upon other scores. Actually one of the teams above Rovers, Shrewsbury have already kicked off and the result will be known, before this match kicks off.

The quote for the Bristol side looks excellent value, we get half our stake back with the stalemate, which the visitors are happy with and have a motivated team looking for the win on our side. The huge bonus is that Swindon could be promoted by events elsewhere and local derby or not, that is sure to distract them.

5.5 points Bristol Rovers -1/4 ball asian line 2.28. * sorry I put the wrong odds on here earlier, transposed them with the next game won 1-0 + 7.04 pts

Good Luck.

BUNDESLIGA .... BORUSSIA MOENCHENGLADBACH- VFB STUTTGART

I have to side with the visitors, defeat for Schalke last night has blown the title race wide open and a win for Stuttgart this afternoon, will close the gap to just one point.

They could hardly arrive in better form, with 4 straight wins, scoring an impressive 11 goals, with 3 comparatively easy looking fixtures remaining after today, they must be greedily eyeing up the Bundesliga trophy.

This is in stark contrast to BMG, where confidence is very low and morale, even lower. They are 8 points and an inferior goal difference from safety and the word is, that the players have given up. BMG have only one goal and a single point from 5 starts and will have to, at least look, for the win, as anything less is likely to seal their fate. This should play into the visitor's hands and I expect an away victory.

4 points Stuttgart -3/4 ball 1.85 asian line. won 1-0 +1.70 pts

Good Luck.

CHAMPIONSHIP .... NORWICH CITY - SOUTHAMPTON

Eighth plays first in the Championship, no, I am not looking at the wrong league, but the attempts on goal table.

Saints are top with 637 scoring opportunities and have hit the woodwork 24 times, City are just shy of 500 attempts.

Here we have two teams happier going forward and there should be goals.

Norwich will be looking to leave their loyal, but hard done by fans with a positive display and some hope for next season. They still have 7 players out injured, but are likely to have both Huckerby and Earnshaw available and 5 of their last 6 have been "over".

Southampton have pledged to attack from the kick off, boss George Burley is convinced that two wins will get them in the play-offs and knows that their strength is going forward. He will be happy that young star Gareth Bale is available and on their day, this is a very talented team.

Their away games have averaged an amazing 3.32 goals and 4 of the last 5 h2h matches have produced 3 or more.

There HAS to be goals today.

5 points Norwich-Southampton over 2.5 goals 1.91 asian line. 0-1 -5 pts

Good Luck.

CHAMPIONSHIP ..... LEEDS UNITED - IPSWICH TOWN

Mountain to climb now for Dennis Wise's team to survive in the second tier of English football, hard to believe that just six years ago they played in a Champions League semi-final.

I feel they will win today and keep the race alive until the final day of the season, when they travel to Derby County.

United recent home form is strong, with consecutive wins over Preston, Plymouth and Burnley and there is no reason why they cannot see off Ipswich. The visitors had their "cup final" last week in the East Anglia derby and may conserve what energy they have left for their final home game of the season.

Leeds are boosted by the availability of Alan Thompson, who has had the red card he received last week overturned. Wise has only a few injury concerns and even Tore Andre Flo is likely to be on the bench, all hand's to the pump ! They will be cheered to the rafters by 30,000 Yorkshiremen and let's hope they are attending a celebration and not a wake. Home win.

5 points Leeds United -1/2 ball 1.86 asian line. 1-1 -5 pts

Good Luck.

SATURDAY PLANS ...........

Down to earth yesterday, 3 losers were very disappointing, but we are still up on the week and I am confident of getting back on track today.

I have had a couple of emails about the Conference matches this afternoon, where we have done so well recently, no bets there for me this time round, apart from the Exeter wager, which was posted earlier in the week, as predicted, those odds have now disappeared.

All posts will be brief with basic reasons and I am going to start with the Championship matches, first post will be online very shortly, please check back.

LIGUE 2 .... NIORT - TOURS

We have talked before about how strong Niort are at their Rene Gaillard home, where they have tasted defeat just once, in 35 starts, over two seasons.

They probably neeed at least two wins to secure their Ligue 2 safety and will be straining every muscle to ensure that tonight, is one of them.

Tours could well be officially relegated after tonight's fixtures, but have long since resigned theirselves to that fate and their coach admits to be experimenting with his line up, for the remainder of the season.

They have been dire on the road, "boasting" a 1-1-15 record and have managed just 2 goals and 2 points, in 6 starts.

Injury wise it is a draw, with both missing 3 players of a similar level of importance, to their club.

I have to side with the stronger team, in better form, with more motivation, in a stadium where they are virtually unbeatable.

6 points Niort -1/2 ball 1.50 general quote. 0-0 -6 pts

Good Luck.

LIGUE 2 ... MONTPELLIER HERAULT SC - CHATEAUROUX LB

Montpellier really need this win, despite a decent run, with few losses, too many drawn matches have seen them fall into the relegation zone, albeit, only on goal difference.

They are missing several players tonight, but are boosted by the return of Victor Montano from suspension and their problems are small compared to the visitors.

Chateauroux are set to be without 10-11 players, including 5-6 regulars and look to be going "through the motions", they have little to play for and have managed two wins and just 7 goals in 10 starts.

The hosts have scored in each of their last 6 and the single strike, might even be enough tonight, which is the score by which they won the reverse fixture, they are my confident selection to complete the double.

Montpellier have named the following team ......
Jourdren - Mainfroi - Carotti - Colombo - Chakouri - Oliseh - Neumann - Ait Fana - Montaño - Malm - Lafourcade

I was going to pick the home win at circa 1.80, which I feel is perfectly acceptable, but once again, Sunderlands remain out on their own, at a big looking 1.91.

5.5 points Montpellier -1/2 ball 1.91 Sunderlands ( 1.80 + is acceptable). lost -5.5 points

Good Luck.

2.BUNDESLIGA ... EINTRACHT BRAUNSCHWEIG TSV - WACKER BURGHAUSEN

Burghausen travel to already relegated Braunschweig, 5 points from safety with just 4 rounds to play and knowing that a win and only a win, will give them a chance of survival.

They can field their strongest eleven for some time and know that they if they could snatch the win, their remaining fixtures give them a realistic possibility of staying in Bundesliga 2.

The visitors missed several early chances in the home loss to Augsburg last week and if they had finished those off, as they did in the recent 4-3 away victory at Duisburg, their plight would not be quite so dire.

Reading an interview with their coach, he is determined to go out fighting and looking for the 3 points this evening. Their total of 4 away wins and 16 goals scored compares favourably with many of the teams fighting relegation.

Braunschweig have already lost at home 8 times this season and as you might expect, their total of just 11 goals scored, is easily the division's worse.

Given the circumstances, the straight win odds have more appeal than the -1/4 ball asian line. Away win.

4.5 points Wacker Burghausen -1/2 ball 2.38 Sunderlands// 2.25 general. lost -4.5 pts

Good Luck.

OPEN SEAT 2007 ...... BARCELONA ATP TENNIS ...... QUARTER - FINALS

I have had a long look at three of the quarter-finals, not much point in studying the Nadal match up, only injury can stop him.

Will not waste too much time in discussing the matches at length, just a few notes on each.

Ferrer should beat Nalbandian , he leads their h2h 4-1, 3-0 on clay and the Argentine has a lot of points to defend next week and may prefer to conserve some energy for then. However, 2.76 for Nalbandian looks big and I would not rush to oppose him at short prices, he is 57-24 lifetime on dirt and has had two comfortable straight sets wins this week, so I will let this one pass.

Hernandez surprised me by beating Nieminen yesterday, but it was more a case of the Finnish player beating himself. I would be amazed if he was to beat Augustin Calleri, who has now made the q-f here in 4 of 5 visits. The two met in Acapulco earlier this season, with Calleri the victor in 3 sets, Ladbrokes offer 4.50 for the same result today, no bet for me, but there are worse bets out there, if you are keen for an interest.

Finally, I cannot see Nikolay Davydenko troubling Guillermo Canas who is 9-1 on clay this year and 67-21 lifetime, unless he is troubled by injury, as he did have an injury time out yesterday, but seemed OK afterwards. I am still taking a small bet, it would have been bigger, but these concerns have stifled my enthusiasm somewhat. The Russian has not really got his act together this year and has struggled to beat Volandri and Schukin here, in what are his only two wins on the surface in 2007.

3 points Canas to beat Davydenko 1.667 Pinnacle Sports. davydenko withdrew... void

Good Luck.

FRIDAY PLANS .......

Another 3 winning selections from 3 yesterday, 7-0, 3-0 and 1-0, the last two had handicap starts , so no need to sweat.

That's 9 from 13 this week. In the 14 days since Friday 13th, there have been 63 bets on the blog, 45 winners ( 71.42%) and over 104 points profit !

A very busy day today, with plenty of information to pass on, make sure you keep in touch.

Good Luck.

UEFA CUP ..... OSASUNA - SEVILLA

I have completely run out of time and am already 30 minutes late for a meeting !

So very quickly, I like this second UEFA Cup semi-final for almost exactly the same reasons as the first. Sevilla are obviously keen to retain the trophy, but are fighting battles on three fronts and surely they will get so few chances to win La Liga , that that must take priority.

Once again I suspect that with their home form so strong, a draw would suit them perfectly well and under the circumstances, the +1/4 ball for the hosts, who have yet to lose at home to Sevilla, this Millenium, with 5 wins and three draws, looks value.

Probable teams

Osasuna: Ricardo López; José Izquierdo, César Cruchaga, Javier Cuéllar, Enrique Corrales; Juanfran, Raúl Garcia, Patxi Puñal, David López; Savo Milošević; Roberto Soldado.

Sevilla: Andrés Palop; Daniel Alves, Javi Navarro, Julien Escudé, Ivica Dragutinović; Jesús Navas, José Luis Martí, Christian Poulsen, Adriano Correia; Frédéric Kanouté; Aleksandr Kerzhakov.

5 points Osasuna +1/4 ball 1.85 asian line. won 1-0 + 4.25 pts

I will have more time and think there is a very strong bet tomorrow, so make sure that you check in.

Good Luck.

UEFA CUP ........ ESPANOL - WERDER BREMEN

We can be certain that Espanol are 100% committed to the UEFA Cup, they are in a mid table comfort zone in La Liga and can approach the match, with no outside distractions.

The same cannot be said about the visitors, who are in 2nd place in the Bundesliga, just two points behind leaders Schalke, with both teams facing tough away games at the weekend.

They should be very happy to take a draw back to Germany and to attempt to finish the job, in front of their own fans.

The Spanish side would love to win a major trophy, especially in a season where their illustrious neighbours Barcelona, have failed in Europe.

Espanol have performed wonderfully well in this competition and are unbeaten in 12 starts, winning all 6 at home, with a 19-5 goal difference. Both sides have key players missing, but I cannot get away from the feeling that Bremen will have one eye on what lies ahead.

4.5 points Espanol +1/4 ball asian line 1.75. won 3-0 +3.375 pts

Good Luck.

COPA LIBERTADORES ..... BOCA JUNIORS - BOLIVAR

Boca currently sit in 3rd position in their group and know that only a minimum 3 goal win tonight, will ensure their progress regardless of what happens in the other fixture.

They are currently in second place in Primera A, their domestic league, just two points behind San Lorenzo and failure to reach the next stage of the Copa, would be a massive disappointment.

Bolivar are the group whipping boys and are also struggling in the Bolivian league, where they are 11th of 12, only off the bottom on goal difference. They actually meet the basement club at the weekend, in what will be, for them, a much bigger game.

Bolivian sides have a very poor record in Argentina and have lost on their last 7 outings in this competition, conceding, interestingly enough, an average of 3 goals per game.

5.5 points Boca Juniors -2.25 goals 1.88 asian line. won 7-0 + 4.84 pts

Good Luck.

THURSDAY NEWS .............

Just a quick update, I am a little short of time this morning, so will be back with my first post around 15.00 cet, looking at three selections today.

No bet for me, but Nieminen looks solid to defeat Hernandez in Barcelona, at circa 1.44, which will not make you fat, but might make a nice double, if you have a strong idea of your own.

As explained yesterday, Hernandez is very much a Challenge tour player and lacks the class of the Finn, who is 65-32 lifetime on clay and took Nadal all the way here last year.

Good Luck.

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE ........ CHELSEA - LIVERPOOL

I just get the feeling we might see something special tonight.

Everyone is expecting a tight close game and it may well be, but clubs have come to realise that 0-0 away in Europe, is no longer good enough.

Rafael Benitez looks set to play with two strikers and I believe that they will come looking for a goal.

Jose's boys have ridden their luck at times and cannot always rely on a late away goal to save them, also feel that they will press for a lead to take up North and this could be quite entertaining.

With the goal line set so low, there is only one side I wish to be on.

5 points over 1.75 goals Chelsea- Liverpool 1.78 asian line. 1-0 -5 pts

Good Luck.

COPA LIBERTADORES ..... NECAXA - ALIANZA LIMA

Necaxa are through to the next round with a win, a very ambitious club, they are rumoured to have signed the 41 yo striker Romario, to help in the next stage of the competition.

Alianza are bottom of the group, without a point and yet to score away from home. I understand that they have left several players at home, ahead of their derby game with Sporting Cristal, at the weekend.

After three league matches without a win, they have dropped to 5th place in the table, but just one point off the lead, they are desperate to get their domestic campaign back on track and there is little doubt, where their priorities lie.

The hosts won the reverse fixture 2-1 and are capable of a bigger margin win this evening, despite the tough looking handicap, I see little downside ....... famous last words.

4.5 points Necaxa -2 goals asian line 2.06. result 2-0 stakes returned

Good Luck.

DANISH CUP ......... OB ODENSE - VIBORG

I have three bets to pass on for this evening and time is a little short now, so previews will be brief.

The hosts should win this quite comfortably. These two met in the league just a couple of weeks ago in Viborg and OB ran out 2-0 winners, I see a similar scoreline tonight.

In previous meetings here, the hosts have won 6 from 8, all by 2 or more goals. They are tight defensively with only league leaders FCK, conceding fewer.

The visitors have conceded more than any club, apart from basement side Vejle and are missing at least 4 players tonight, elsewhere I have read that the "injury" list is much worse, but understand that information to be wrong. Regardless of which, home win.

4.5 points OB -1/2 ball 1.50 general quote. lost -4.5 pts

Good Luck.

QUICK UPDATE

Sunderlands have released their odds for the Barcelona tennis and are 1.62 for Hernandez, have to give that a mention.

Golf wise, on the USPGA tour they have a full range of odds for the EDS Byron Nelson tournament and in Europe for the Open de Espana.

CONFERENCE ..... EXETER CITY - SOUTHPORT

I am not going into great detail, this looks a very solid home win and it would amaze me if these odds were still available tomorrow.

If you shop around you will find 1.50 Exeter, maybe a little higher (1.53 Centrebet), the true odds, IMO are closer to 1.30.

City currently occupy the final play-off position, this is the last round, they will be in with a win, regardless of what happens elsewhere. With the team immediately below them, Burton Albion, also at home, to Rushden, who played last night and have one eye on their cup final, there is no margin for error.

Exeter are a biggish team in the West Country, they even have their own beer ! It is time they moved on to the next level.

Southport must be feeling very low this morning, despite not playing yesterday, results elsewhere meant they are now relegated, they will struggle to raise their game enough to fend off a very motivated opponent .

6 points Exeter City -1/2 ball 1.53 Centrebet// 1.50 general.

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY PLANS .........

Three winners on the football last night, which more than made up for the tennis debacle.

I am only putting this up as a token bet, because the odds have fallen a little low this morning, but Oscar Hernandez should beat Benjamin Becker in Barcelona.

He plays most of his tennis on the Challenger circuit, but Hernandez is very much a clay court specialist and is 184-123 lifetime on the dirt, only playing 8 times on other surfaces ! In the first round he posted a nice straight sets win over Tursunov and won a Challenger here, late last year.

Becker is 5-10 lifetime on clay and until recently had never beaten anyone with a ranking of any note, on the red stuff.

It would be a slap in the face for the Spaniard to lose this, especially in front of his own fans, but just a nominal bet for me.

I will be back in 30-45 minutes, with a bet for the weekend, which you should place as soon as possible, not fantastic odds, but a strong selection. There will be three football posts for today's action, which will be online this afternoon.

2 points Hernandez to beat Becker 1.61 Pinnacle Sports, odds are fluctuating on the exchanges, but you should find something similar, nearer the start. won straight sets + 1.22 pts

Back shortly.

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE ..... MANCHESTER UNITED - AC MILAN

Injury hit United may be forced to field a back four consisting of Heinze, Brown, O'Shea and Fletcher (!), a player out of position is never a good idea and in a Champions League semi-final could be very costly.

At the other end of the pitch is an ancient defence, who may struggle to handle United's pace.

I expect both teams to look for a goal or two, Milan might even see this game as the better opportunity to take the initiative over the two legs.

Both have identical recent records, with just one clean sheet in 7 starts and all matches producing 2 or more goals. Feel both will score tonight and my best bet is the "over" 2 goal option in asian.

Even if you do not place a wager, this is a match to savour, with on current form, the two best players on the planet, Ronaldo and Kaka facing each other. Should be fun.

5 points over 2 goals Manchester United-Milan 1.78 asian line. result 3-2 + 3.9 points

Good Luck.

DIVISION 2 ...... SHREWSBURY TOWN - WREXHAM

The visitors have finally found some form and done us a couple of favours in the process.

They have tightened up defensively a great deal and have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 starts. The Welsh club sit immediately above Boston on goal difference, with tonight's game in hand, in the race to decide who joins Torquay in the Conference next season.

The two meet on the final day of the season and the scenario is if Wrexham can collect a point either tonight, or in another tough away game at Walsall on Saturday, then a win over Boston will leave them safe. Without a point in the next two, then it could be outside their own control.

Tonight's match is something of a local derby and Wrexham will have plenty of support.

The hosts have had a fantastic run since Christmas and have still not 100% confirmed their play-off place, although they look reasonably secure, they could live with a point tonight and a draw, would be my selection if forced to choose a single result. However, no one is forcing me and the 1/2 ball start for the visitors, looks the better option.

4 points Wrexham +1/2 ball asian line 1.90. won 1-0 +3.6 points

Good Luck.

CONFERENCE ....... GRAYS ATHLETIC - KIDDERMINSTER HARRIERS

Grays sit just outside the relegation zone, with the team immediately below them in the table, Halifax Town, also at home this evening and with just one further round to go. The pressure is on !

The hosts should never be in this position, they are too good for that, but got distracted by another FA Trophy run. I hope and think they will put that right at the Rec tonight and 3 points, should ensure their survival.

Kidderminster are one of the division's better away sides, but have nothing to play for and will be without 4 regulars through injury and suspension. They also made that FA Trophy final, which is going to be the first final at the new Wembley in a couple of weeks time and believe me, no one will want to pick up an injury and miss that.

Under the circumstances, we have to side with the very motivated hosts .

5 points Grays -1/2 ball 1.80 asian line. result 3-0 +4 points

Good Luck.

TERRY BUTCHER ......... BEES NEW MANAGER

The following is taken from the Brentford FC newletter....

Brentford Football Club are delighted to announce the appointment of former England captain Terry Butcher as their new Manager.

The decision to appoint Terry was unanimous amongst the Board of Directors. Bees Chairman Greg Dyke said: "We are delighted to have obtained the services of Terry Butcher as Manager. His record as a player is second to none and stands as an inspiration to others. We were particularly impressed by his four year record at Motherwell where under his leadership and guidance the Club competed well above expectations. With that experience under his belt we believe that Terry is the right person to lead the Brentford fightback".

Brentford`s newly appointed Manager, Terry Butcher said: "I'm thrilled and delighted to be at Brentford Football Club. I was very impressed by the Board and the Chairman, and the plans they have for the future of the Club. I'm aware of everybody's desire to bounce back into League One and I want to start that process as soon as possible. I'm really looking forward to the challenge."

Not sure what I make of this appointment yet, going to sleep on it, but it is certainly higher profile than I expected. The players certainly need the "frighteners" put on them and I suggest he goes into pre season training on the first day, looking like this photograph !

Back later.

OUCH ! Talk about tempting fate ..............

"Even if Gaudio loses 0 & 0, I will still be happy with this bet" ............. he lost 0 & 1 !

I suppose it is the same as losing 7-6 7-6, but just feels a little worse. In a state of shock, just hoping that as it was so early, some of you were working/ sleeping and missed the "winner".

Football for the rest of the day, the first of which will be online in an hour or so.

Good Luck.

OPEN SEAT 2007 ...... BARCELONA ATP TENNIS ...... GASTON GAUDIO - ROBIN SODERLING

You can sit me down, strap me to a chair and talk until you are blue in the face, but win or lose, you will never convince me that the odds on this game are correct.

Even if Gaudio loses 0 & 0, I will still be happy with this bet.

Soderling is not a clay courter, he performed quite well in Monte Carlo last week, but he lives there and feels comfortable in the surroundings. I checked briefly and can find no record of him ever previously playing in Barcelona and he claims to hate these early morning starts.

Gaudio is an enigma and you are never quite sure what you are going to get from him, but there are sure signs of improvement and we can expect a decent display here, on his beloved dirt. A previous winner and two time finalist, with a 18-5 record in Barcelona, surely he is worth a little @ 2.72 of anyone's money.

3.5 points Gaudio to beat Soderling 2.72 Betfair ( 2.60 + is acceptable) LOST -3.5 points

Good Luck.

GOOD MORNING !

OK a pleasing enough start to the week, with 2 from 3 winners and a small profit, little fish are sweet !

The Bari game looked to be heading for a draw, but it turned nasty and a late goal and a host of red cards changed all that.

Lot's to discuss today and football will be to the fore, however, I have one tennis bet and it is a very early start, so I am giving you as much notice as possible, it will be online within the next 30 minutes.

Please check back.

SERIE B ........ BARI AS - MANTOVA

When a draw suits both teams in Serie B, that is normally the outcome and we may have just such a match here.

A point each, will cement the visitors position in the play-off places and increase the home team's gap to 6 points, over the relegation zone.

Bari have drawn 3 of their last 6, Mantova their last 2 and 4 of their last 6, on the road, they have finished level in 11 of their 16 starts this season.

Two of the last 3 h2h meetings have finished all square and it is hard to get away from a similar result tonight.

4 points Bari-Mantova draw 2.40 Sunderlands. Result 0-1 -4 pts

Good Luck.

LIGUE 2 ......RACING STRASBOURG - STADE de REIMS

Racing can move up to second place with a win and more importantly, increase the gap to 4th place to 6 points, with just 5 rounds to go.

Like many other teams around Europe, Strasbourg seem to stumbling over the finishing line, but will surely not miss this golden opportunity, in front of their own fans. They are very strong at home, where they boast a 12-4-0 record.

Reims have all but secured their Ligue 2 future and have very little to play for. Far happier at home, they have struggled for points and goals away from home all season.

With two key defenders out this evening, they will have their work cut out, to contain a motivated home team.

4.5 points Strasbourg -1/2 ball 1.53 general// Sunderlands. won 1-0 +2.385 pts

Good Luck.

CONFERENCE .... RUSHDEN AND DIAMONDS - NORTHWICH VICTORIA

No point in wasting much time here, I expect Rushden to win.

This is Northwich's 8th game in 16 days and the players must be totally exhausted, they are without 5 regulars, so the rotation possibilities are limited.

They have to play again on Wednesday, in what will be their last home game of the season, I suspect any energy they have left, will be put towards that game. It is traditional for teams to try to impress in their final home match, wanting to leave supporters with something of a "feelgood" factor.

This is Rushden's last home start and they ended a disappointing run, with victory over Woking at the weekend and are likely to be unchanged tonight. They had previously been in excellent form and will be amongst the favourites for a promotion push next season. Home win.

5 points Rushden -1/2 ball 1.90 general quote// 1.86 asian line. WON 1-0 + 4.5 pts

I will be back this afternoon with my next selection.

Good Luck.

MONDAY PLANS AND WEEKLY REVIEW .....

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we have some incredibly interesting matches today and plenty of choice, with games from a dozen or so countries.

I will definitely be putting a selection online mid to late morning and details then, of when any other posts are likely to be available. Only football today by the way, we have tennis from Barcelona and will certainly be getting involved there later in the week, but I shall pass on that for now.

There was no classic in Monte Carlo yesterday, Rafa was simply too good, on that form no one will ever beat him on clay. Federer looked lost and I was left feeling sorry for the greatest player of his and maybe any generation, which puts Nadal's performance into perspective. Awesome !

Not a great Sunday, but it was nice to finish with a winner and we were a little unlucky, Wolves missed an injury time penalty and I felt unable to post the Chievo bet on GOWI as the odds had fallen too far. I have received some emails about this general subject and am going to post something later, regarding the time that bets are posted on the blog and the reasoning behind that. Will try to do that today or tomorrow, as I feel it is important.

However, a VERY pleasing week, the statistics can be found below and the last 10 days have been amazing, with 72% winners and almost 90 points profit !

WEEK 55 STATS
32 bets , 22 winners (68.75 %) profit + 48.064 points ROI 33.26% (144.5)

That is the 41st winning week from 55.

Back later.

LIGUE 1 ... ST.ETIENNE - FC GIRONDINS de BORDEAUX

Bordeaux look to be staging a perfectly timed run in order to snatch a Champions League place in Ligue 1.

Three points today will actually take them into the promised land of 3rd place, even a point will leave their fate in theie own hands, as they face a home game against second placed Lens, who they currently trail by 4 points, next week.

They are now unbeaten in 7, have conceded only one goal in 6 starts and recently won the Coupe de la Ligue, things are on the up and they will even be looking to reclaim the second place they earned last season. Les Girondins looked excellent in the 3-0 win over nancy in midweek and will be further boosted by the return of playmaker Johan Micoud, this evening.

St Etienne are talented, but very inconsistent, as dictated by their home record of 10-0-6, two key players Feindoun and Gomis will face late tests, though both are expected to start.

Cream tends to rise to the top at this stage of the season , the visitors have not lost in 7 meetings with the hosts and I confidently expect that to become 8 tonight.

6 points Bordeaux +1/4 ball asian line 1.84. won 2-0 + 5.04 pts

Good Luck.

MONTE CARLO OPEN TENNIS ........THE DREAM FINAL ...... RAFAEL NADAL - ROGER FEDERER

I am really looking forward to this !

To be honest, neither seems to be at the very top of their game, but that might not stop it being a classic encounter.

Rafa is unbeaten on clay since forever, well, two years and 68 matches, in tennis terms it is pretty much the same thing. He looks to have timed his return to form just perfectly, winning his first tournament for 9 months recently in Indian Wells, without dropping a set.

However, you would not want him serving you breakfast in bed at the moment, it would probably end up in your lap. He managed just 48% of first serves yesterday against Tomas Berdych, yet, here is the amazing statistic, did not face a break point ! Rafa won 62% of all points which is mighty impressive for a men's semi-final, especially when serving so poorly.

H2h is 6-3 in the Spaniard's favour, one of only 5 players to hold a lifetime winning record over the world number one, Fed-ex has taken the last two, but trails 4-0 on dirt, as you might expect.

All of these were scheduled to be 5 set matches, including here last year and all went to at least four and were close, Federer wasting match points on occasion. This final has been reduced to 3 sets, which is a shame, but will not lessen the tension.

It is amazing when you see 2.76 on a Federer victory, it will only ever come against Rafa on clay. This could well go all the way and those odds on the Swiss player may offer excellent hedging opportunities during the match. HOWEVER, I feel the set betting offers better value for our money and my selection is for Nadal in 3 sets, with a saver on Federer to do likewise.

Changed my mind about the bet in Italy, still like the selection, which was Chievo to beat Livorno, for those amongst you who simply HAVE to know, but feel that they are a little too short now, so going to pass.

My strongest bet of the day is an evening kick off and I will be back later this afternoon with the details, please check back.

3 points Nadal to beat Federer 2-1 sets 4.0 Bet 365// Expekt etc. rafa in two -4 pts

1 point Federer to beat Nadal 2-1 sets 5.60 exchanges.

Good Luck.

CHAMPIONSHIP ......WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS - BIRMINGHAM CITY

This vital match starts in a little over an hour.

The last four meetings between these Midland rivals have finished all square and today could be number 5.

A point would enable City to move above Derby and back into the automatic promotion place, a win would take them top, but defeat means events are not in their own control, with just 2 more rounds to play, would you risk it ? I feel Steve Bruce would accept the draw now.

Wolves would also like to win, but could live with the draw, as this would increase their lead over the chasing pack to two points, they currently sit in the final play-off spot, with a pack of chasing clubs immediately behind.

Both are at home next week, in matches where they will be strong(ish) favourites, I feel Messrs Bruce and McCarthy will be happy with the point. A draw.

2.5 points Wolverhampton - Birmingham draw 3.20 general quote// Sunderlands.

Result 2-3 -2.5 pts ..... wolves missed a penalty in the last minute !

I will be back a little later.

Good Luck.

PREMIERSHIP ....... NEWCASTLE UNITED - CHELSEA

I cannot believe that I am tipping something at circa 1.50 away from home in the Premiership.

However, following Manchester United's slip up yesterday, a win today will leave the title fate in Chelsea's own hands. Over recent weeks this has developed into a battle of wills between Sir Alex and "The Special One " and the Chelsea coach will not want to miss, this opportunity to turn the knife.

Newcastle have a fair home record against The Blues in recent years, but some of these results came when United were desperate and the visitors had little to play for. Today is a VERY different situation and if it comes down to tactics, I am sorry, but Roeder against Mourinho is a massive mismatch.

The hosts injury situation shows little sign of improving and their recent form is poor, Chelsea always find a way to win and today should be no different, in SWP they have a hungry player at the top of his game, with a lot to prove . Away win.

5.5 points Chelsea -1/2 ball 1.50 general quote. result 0-0 -5.5 pts

Back very shortly.

EARLY KICK OFFS ........

I am going to discuss three early kick offs very briefly, in three seperate posts which will all follow shortly after each other, hope that makes sense.

Starting in Germany, where I am sticking with Duisburg, who have done us a couple of favours lately. They have rediscovered their form just in time and are rattling in the goals, with 9 in their last 3 starts, all of which they won.

Duisburg remain a point clear in the third and final promotion spot with Freiburg and Furth breathing down their neck and both rivals are at home today, in relatively easy looking fixtures.

With two potential banana skins up next, in matches against CZJ and Koln, they will be straining every sinew to get the 3 points today and look who is in town ! Bundesliga 2 whipping boys Eintracht Braunschweig, who are all but relegated, a fate that will almost certainly be confirmed today.

The visitors are 0-4-10 away, with a horror goal difference of 4-26, I expect a minimum two goal win for the hosts and have no problem giving up the handicap start. Comfortable home win.

4.5 points Duisburg -1.5 goals 1.75 asian line. 0-0 - 4.5 pts

Good Luck.

THAT WAS OH SO CLOSE !

Someone "up there" doesn't want me to get the Magnificent Seven poster out again !

Leeds United were unable to hold on with 10 men, which prevented a clean sweep.

2.5 points Peterhead-Alloa draw 3.60 WON result 0-0 + 6.5 pts
6 points Burton 2.25 WON 3-0 + 7.5 pts
5.5 points Cambridge +1/4 ball 1.74 WON 1-0 + 4.07 pts
5 points Sheff Weds- Coventry over 2.25 goals 1.75 WON + 3.75 pts
5.5 points Wrexham 1.57 WON 1-0 + 3.135 pts
5.5 points PSG 1.72 WON 4-0 + 3.96 pts
4.5 points Leeds +1/2 ball LOST 1-0 - 4.5 pts

Anyway, we can hardly complain about 6 from 7 and over 24 points profit in one afternoon.

Last 8 days, 35 winners from 42 selections. or over 83% !

As always, my normal warning, these are unsubstainable levels and the aim of the blog is long term profits, these winnings will help pay for the lean spells.

Tomorrow looks interesting and I have one very strong selection. We also have the dream Federer-Nadal final in Monte Carlo to look forward to, so, an exciting day.

Have a good evening !