Sunday, April 22, 2007


I am really looking forward to this !

To be honest, neither seems to be at the very top of their game, but that might not stop it being a classic encounter.

Rafa is unbeaten on clay since forever, well, two years and 68 matches, in tennis terms it is pretty much the same thing. He looks to have timed his return to form just perfectly, winning his first tournament for 9 months recently in Indian Wells, without dropping a set.

However, you would not want him serving you breakfast in bed at the moment, it would probably end up in your lap. He managed just 48% of first serves yesterday against Tomas Berdych, yet, here is the amazing statistic, did not face a break point ! Rafa won 62% of all points which is mighty impressive for a men's semi-final, especially when serving so poorly.

H2h is 6-3 in the Spaniard's favour, one of only 5 players to hold a lifetime winning record over the world number one, Fed-ex has taken the last two, but trails 4-0 on dirt, as you might expect.

All of these were scheduled to be 5 set matches, including here last year and all went to at least four and were close, Federer wasting match points on occasion. This final has been reduced to 3 sets, which is a shame, but will not lessen the tension.

It is amazing when you see 2.76 on a Federer victory, it will only ever come against Rafa on clay. This could well go all the way and those odds on the Swiss player may offer excellent hedging opportunities during the match. HOWEVER, I feel the set betting offers better value for our money and my selection is for Nadal in 3 sets, with a saver on Federer to do likewise.

Changed my mind about the bet in Italy, still like the selection, which was Chievo to beat Livorno, for those amongst you who simply HAVE to know, but feel that they are a little too short now, so going to pass.

My strongest bet of the day is an evening kick off and I will be back later this afternoon with the details, please check back.

3 points Nadal to beat Federer 2-1 sets 4.0 Bet 365// Expekt etc. rafa in two -4 pts

1 point Federer to beat Nadal 2-1 sets 5.60 exchanges.

Good Luck.

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