Sunday, May 24, 2009

SUNDAY ...........

I sent this to subscribers early on Friday morning, obviously the value has gone in the anytime goalscorer selection, but the other bets are still attractively priced.



In Italy, the battle for Serie A top scorer ( capocannonieri) is always keenly followed and hard fought, clubs will do what they can to get one of their own this prestigeous award and try to set up the game accordingly. Please read the email post from this time last season (below in blue), to get an idea of what I mean.

Inter have already won the Scudetto and got most of the celebrations out of the way last week, they still have a home game to come next week, so can complete the party then, for now, they can concentrate on business, which is to help Zlatan Ibrahimovic win the capocannonieri.

Surprisingly, Di Vaio of Bologna leads with 23 goals, Zlatan has one less and Milito of Genoa 20, at present, we do not have to bother too much about the rest, although that might change before next weekend, when we might return to this market.

Cagliari have been involved in some high scoring matches recently, their last four have been "over" with an average of 4.75 goals, the only home fixture in that sequence was a 2-2 draw with Roma which I watched. It was end to end stuff and the scoreline could easily have been much higher. This really seems the ideal match up to engineer a goal or two for Zlatan.

There is nothing really "funny" about this, it just means that if there is a chance to score yourself, or to square the ball to the player in question, your team mates will not be too happy if you take the unselfish option. It goes without saying that Zlatan will be taking any penalties and free kicks around the area.

In a normal game, you would fancy him to score, under these circumstances it becomes must bet material.

So, Zlatan in the anytime goalscorer market is a given and the odds are win or lose, IMO, HUGE ! I will also take a decent bet on over 3 goals, at what looks juicy odds, I could very easily see this ending up 3-3 or something similar and to be honest, if Inter could lose 3-2 with "our" man scoring twice, I think they would settle for that.

Therefore, I will finish with a group of correct scores, obviously you need luck to hit one of these, but the 3-3 obliged last year and once again is overpriced under the circumstances.

More bookmakers will start quoting the goalscorer markets throughout today.

10 points Zlatan Ibrahimovic to score anytime 2.75 Bet 365 (NOW 1.83).... anything above 2.25 is backable .

8 points "over" 3 goals 2.05 asian line.

0.75 points Inter to win 3-2 correct score 34.0 general quote.

0.75 points Cagliari to win 3-2 correct score 41.0 general quote.

1.5 points 3-3 draw correct score 67.0 general quote.


I have three bets for this match, but make no excuses as, win or lose, they all offer fantastic value.This has been moved to saturday and, live on television, hopes will be high for an entertaining affair and I am certain, that it will be.

Two of Juve's favourite sons David Trezequet and Del Piero, along with Boriello of Genoa, are all level on 19 goals, in the race to become top scorer in Serie A. It is normal, in such matches, when clubs have no bigger motivation, for them to do what they can to get their players this prestigeous award. In Del Piero's case, they will bust a gut !

Trezequet has already won this once before and Del Piero, who is loved by all at the club, has not. I feel that the game will be set up/ played to give him every opportunity to score a couple of goals and put the pressure on Boriello, to do the same at Atalanta on Sunday.

Del Piero has been playing things down, but reading between the lines, this is something that he really wants. Surely this will be a high scoring affair and Sampdoria will want to get involved, the over 2.5 goals has been well backed in Italy this week and the asian line is likely to tumble later today. I have no qualms about taking over three goals there, as I see almost no downside to the wager.

Bet 365 have not done their homework here and offer silly prices, other companies might follow suit later in the day, but be quick, as odds will not last long.Juve have some defensive problems and the scoreline here could go very high 3-3. 4-4, 4-3 something similar, is not out of the question.

8 points Del Piero to score anytime 2.75 Bet 365.... 2.10 + is acceptable. WON

6 points over 3 goals asian line 2.01 ......... 2.075 Bet 365 WON

0.5 point 3-3 correct score 67.0 general quote 81.0 in places. WON !

Good Luck.

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